Front Burner - Conservatives are sick of losing. Who can win?

Episode Date: March 16, 2022

It’s been three straight election losses for the Conservative Party of Canada, and now three consecutive races to find a new leader. MPs booted Erin O’Toole as leader last month after he failed to best Justin Trudeau in an unpopular 2021 election. Now, the race to replace him as leader is underway, with the first week of the race marked by attacks, ideology and differing tactics for how to return the party to power. Five candidates have put their names in so far: Conservative finance critic Pierre Poilievre, Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown, former Quebec premier Jean Charest, Conservative MP Leslyn Lewis and independent Ontario MPP Roman Baber. Today, Power and Politics host Vassy Kapelos returns with an overview of the candidates, their strategies and what’s at stake for the party beyond just winning.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Jamie Poisson. I don't know about you, but as a lifelong Conservative Party member, I am tired of fighting only to watch our party lose.

This is Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown. On Sunday, he became the latest to join the race for the federal Conservative leadership. And the latest to offer a solution to the party's mission impossible. Winning an election. We need a leader that can build the broad, multicultural, multi-faith, values-driven coalition necessary to win in the areas where we keep losing. And the party needs to look at itself and ask itself, what is it that we represent? Who is it that we represent? And I think that most Canadians, they just want to be left alone, to believe what they want, to believe.

The Conservatives have now lost three elections in a row to Justin Trudeau. That's despite Trudeau becoming increasingly mired in scandal and calling a pandemic election most Canadians did not want. So after leader Aaron O'Toole's loss last year, MPs voted him out in February. And the race to save the party has started all over again. You have to be welcoming of folks that feel that they did not have a home in the Conservative Party of Canada. that feel that they did not have a home in the Conservative Party of Canada. I'm the only candidate that can fight for your paychecks purchasing power. We now know the party will choose its new leader on September 10th. And the rush of entries and attacks and ideologies is telling us a lot

about how Canada's seemingly perennial opposition could try to take back power. One of our favourite guests is back on the pod to explain. Host of Power and Politics, Vashi Kapelos is here with me now. Hi, Vashi. Hi, Jamie. It's so good to have you back. For people listening who may not know, you recently came back from maternity leave. So congratulations and welcome back. It's so great to have you here. Thank you. I'm so excited to be back with you.

So I keep hearing that this race is about the battle for the soul of the conservative party. And I guess hyperbole aside, why might that actually be an accurate description of this race? I love the way you frame that because I too was kind of skeptical. I'm like, oh boy, these are the exact elitists that conservatives love to hate. Painting this as this battle for the heart and soul of the party. And so I greeted it with some skepticism too.

And I was telling your producer a little while ago that I have now come to subscribe to it because of the conversations I've had with conservatives over the past month, I would say, who really themselves are describing it that way, maybe even in more heightened language. Like I've heard the words culture war used. This is it for our party. Like, I really don't think it is hyperbole anymore. I think this race is going to be a defining one for the party's future. And I think the stakes are really high. Tell me a little bit more about why they think that is, why they think this is the moment. Because I do remember the last leadership race after Andrew Scheer was booted out. There was lots of talk about the future of the Conservative Party and what it was really about. So how is this time different?

OK, so I would highlight two things. First and foremost, this time is different because they've lost another election. That'd be my main reason as to why they are looking inward. And by that, I mean they lost in 2015. Well, tonight's result is certainly not the one we had hoped for. The people are never wrong. They lost in 2015. Well, tonight's result is certainly not the one we had hoped for. The people are never wrong. They lost in 2019. And while tonight's result isn't what we wanted, I am also incredibly proud.

And then they lost an election that they claimed, and others claimed as well, to be fair, nobody even wanted. More people voted for Canada's Conservatives than any other party. And that's a strength to build on. It's like, you know, if I were to lose three jobs in a row, I have to at some point look inside and be like, maybe it's not them, it's me, right? And so I do feel that that is the primary reason behind the way in which this race is being described. But here's my second reason. But here's my second reason. More so than in the last race or in the race before that, they are faced with very distinct choices in the candidates who represent different values at different times and offer them the ability to, if they subscribe to one of those candidates, define the party very specifically. So by that, I mean, you do have someone like Jean Chrétien or someone like Patrick Brown who are in the so-called more progressive side of the party. In fact, Jean Charest, I'm sorry, pardon me, Jean Charest was a progressive conservative. Patrick Brown was a provincial progressive conservative. Right. And so they are espousing a certain set of values.

And then you have someone like Pierre Polyev. And I'm not sure how exactly to define him, but he's certainly to the right of those two candidates. And he espouses a different set of values. Then you have Lesley Lewis, who is espousing social conservatives. So, like, you have a distinct variety of choices, and they are punctuated, I think, more so than they were in previous races. So I think that combined with the losing record is what sets the stakes a bit higher this time. Right. Essentially, they're standing at some sort of crossroads. Yeah. Let's talk a little bit more about Polyev, Pierre Polyev, who is considered the front runner here. He announced his candidacy three days after MPs ousted O'Toole last month. Trudeau thinks he's your boss. He's

got it backwards. You are the boss. That's why I'm running for prime minister, to put you back in charge of your life. I know you said it is a little bit hard to define him, but maybe take a run at it. For sure. So he's about, I think, if I've done my math right, 43 years old. He's been an MP for a more rural area just outside of Ottawa since 2004. The entire country breathed a sigh of relief when the nation was pulled back from the brink of a federal election. But nobody breathed easier than Conservative Member of Parliament Pierre Poilievre, who will now qualify for a full pension the same month he turns 31.

Under the Harper government, he was a minister of state for democratic reform, kind of revamped some election laws that were controversial at the time. The revamp was he was the minister of employment for a bit. I would note that he ran in the last leadership race. He was going to run and then kind of dropped out very suddenly before it officially kicked off. He had been organizing. He had had a campaign team ready. But Pierre Polyever will

drop out. We don't know the reasons. He'll say it's personal reasons for his family. I sort of go back to the idea that he is hard to define. I think that in recent months, he is probably better known for A, how quickly he declared, B, how many MPs from the Conservative Party coalesced behind him very quickly as well. Hi, this is Colin Carey, Member of Parliament for Oshawa. I'm here with my friend Pierre Poliev. Great to see you, Colin. It's good to see you too, Pierre.

We've known each other for many years and I'm here to happily endorse him. I am so proud to officially announce that I am endorsing Pierre Poliev, not just to be leader of the Conservative Party, but to be Prime Minister of Canada, ladies and gentlemen. And then see what happened with the convoy here in Ottawa and the fact that he aligned himself very early on, but even as it became more destructive, did not back away from that alignment and was challenged very much so on that. He talks a lot about freedom.

Together, we will make Canadians the freest people on earth, with freedom to build a business without red tape or heavy tax. That's one thing I've noticed. He talks also about the idea that the government works for the people, not the other way around. And he's famous almost, or infamous infamous for his criticism of the government. He's the one that comes up with all these one-liners. It's just inflation.

That make it into the political ecosystem that you hear quite frequently. And he, like I used to remember him when I covered the Harper years as like, he was like the pit bull kind of, right? Like if you wanted somebody in question period, which I'm sure everyone was just glued to. But if you wanted someone to really go after the opposition on an issue, like you just put him up. Well, isn't it funny to listen to a trust fund baby lecturing Canadians about being too rich? And so now it becomes like, OK, well, what does that mean from a policy perspective? Like what would you do as the leader of the opposition?

Or more importantly, what would you do as prime minister? And he started to roll out his policy platform with just one policy around immigration and sort of speeding up the process through which immigrants can find work in Canada. But I'm very curious to see, like, what policies come next. One thing I think about when I think about Polyev is that is the word like unapologetic. He seems just very unapologetic for his party and for his views. And I wonder if there's something there. I think it's super attractive to a number of conservatives. And I think even more so because of the framing of the past few leadership races and the past few elections. The assumption has been conservatives have a strong base, particularly in Western Canada, but they need to grow that base

in other areas like Quebec, like the 905 region of Toronto in order to actually form government. And the theory has been and this is where it gets a bit more debatable. Like the fact is, yes, they need to grow the number of votes in different places. But the theory about why they have been unsuccessful in doing so has been that they they have to move more to the center to do it. Like you have to be more of a progressive conservative for people in the 905 and in Quebec to vote for you. Well, Aaron O'Toole did that, right? And he didn't end up succeeding in that endeavor. And so from the conservatives I speak to who support Polyev, it really angered them that that theory was put out there. It's again labeled this sort of like elitist central Canada thing. And I think inherently it made them feel as though they should

be apologizing for the views that they hold because they aren't in alignment with trying to succeed in other parts of the country or trying to get that 905 or the Quebec vote. And so I think you're absolutely right to characterize it that way. he sits on the spectrum or not saying, oh, I need to be more centrist in order to get votes where we need them. That is resonating with people who are sick of hearing that. The question, though, is, is he is he right? Like, you know, were there other factors at play as to why Aaron O'Toole wasn't successful? And maybe it wasn't just his progressive side. And maybe it is true that they need some sort of appeal to the center in some way to be able to cast a wider net and actually win the election. I don't know. That's like an open ended question.

But certainly he's taken, I think by his nature, he's taken a position on it. I'm going to millions of people and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household income? That's not a typo, 50%. That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. So then let's spend a bit of time talking about those candidates who might, that head more towards the center, right? The more centers pass. Let's start with Brampton Mayor and former Ontario Conservative leader Patrick Brown.

He joined the race on Sunday. And how is his pitch different from Polyev's? His pitch is certainly more on the progressive side. And by that, I mean things that he has already talked about when he was leader of the provincial party. So I'm thinking, for example, of a carbon tax, though he's opposed to it increasing at this moment in time because of the high cost of living. He is, in theory, supportive of a price on carbon as a mechanism to fight climate change. He also subscribes to the idea that there have to be sort of government-imposed things done in order to combat the side effects of climate change, or the impacts, rather, of climate change.

He's also, you know, progressive on all kinds of social issues. I will bring the fight for affordable housing that I have fought for here in the GTA to every part of Canada. And I will make sure that conservatives are elected in Canada's north on a vision built on indigenous rights and Arctic sovereignty. To win, we must unite our country. You name it, right? Like he is not a social conservative. He also has a different set of strengths insofar as what he did very successfully to become leader of the provincial party was sell a huge amount of memberships to constituencies

that might not normally vote for conservatives. And in particular, in the 905 area. And so he is trying to leverage that provincial success on the federal scene. I know for a fact, for example, that he was not even going to enter the race unless there was three months to sell memberships. Like memberships are key to him. to enter the race unless there was three months to sell memberships. Like memberships are key to him. And so I think that feeds into the vision that he'll be putting forward or the option he'll be putting forward to conservative voters in that, you know, bigger tent party. Here's someone who can attract people who don't normally vote for the party. That's his his pitch. And it's because

I'm pushing, you know, a fiscally conservative agenda, but one that also addresses many of the social issues of our time. So part of his strategy is going to be to try and grow the base. I want people who have never voted conservative and have voted for other parties to feel welcome in our family. Oh, it's his whole strategy. That was their secret weapon in the provincial party race, and they believe it to be their secret weapon federally too okay um brown and polyev have already been trading barbs back and forth hey like particularly about steven harper's policies around kneecaps in 2015 and just like talk to me about how that is playing out and and what that says to you so. So it's so fascinating because it's like day five and it was already starting. And these are the two, you knew Polyev was going to come out that way because he did kind of right from the start. He's so-called scrappiness.

But it looks like Patrick Brown is pretty scrappy as well. And he went after Polyev for Polyev and his colleagues' support of the niqab ban during the 2015 election. Brown was quick to launch his own attack, calling out Polyev for supporting discriminatory policies that target immigrants such as the niqab ban. In a statement, he said Polyev has no credibility announcing any sort of policy which largely impacts minority communities. And then Polyev retorted, I'm paraphrasing, but you're distorting it. And he called him a liar. And he said, you know, we do not support such a thing. And the fact that Brown went after this particular issue speaks to what I was just mentioning around his strategy of bringing in constituencies who don't normally vote for conservatives,

many of whom are in the 905. He framed it as a debate around religious freedom, right? So that is, for example, Muslim communities in various areas of Canada. But also it's a message to Quebec about Bill 21, right? And he's creating a cleavage between him and other candidates around Bill 21. And so, you know, the issue itself is interesting because of who each candidate is trying to speak to. But the tone and tenor of it is also fascinating because I feel like now the stage has been set. Like,

no way we're going back to playing nice. Like, we're five days in and it's already like, I'm going for the, everyone's going for the jugular. So I expect that to continue. Yeah, this is going to be yeah this is going to be this is going to be a really interesting race i want to get to sheree in one second but before we move on from brown i think it's important to note here people will remember that he resigned as ontario pc leader after ctv reported sexual assault allegations against him in 2018 and we found out last week he settled an eight million million defamation lawsuit against CTV. When the media tried to make me cancel culture's latest victim

by smearing me with false allegations, I fought back and won. He didn't receive any money, but CTV has added disclaimers to the article saying key details in the reporting were incorrect and it regrets including them. So how is Brown framing this settlement in his campaign? Yeah, he's certainly, and the timing of it was interesting too, right? It was right before,

essentially a few days before that he declared his candidacy. And clearly he wanted this aspect of things to be dealt with prior to moving forward. I think it's interesting in that, like, no money changed hands. I note the wording very carefully. Key details provided to CTV for their story were factually incorrect and required correction. CTV regrets including those details in the story and any harm this may have caused to Mr. Brown. So it doesn't completely, like, say that the entire story was wrong and they retract the entire story, which is if, you know, as a journalist, if I were to get everything wrong, I would have to do. I mean, it would be a massive mea culpa. And likely there would.

I mean, I'm not a legal expert, but you would think if the suit was eight million dollars and one party was found to be completely in the wrong, there would be some money exchanging hands. I don't I don't know. I'm not party to the negotiations that that went on. But I think it's fair to say Brown wanted this dealt with. And we can probably read a little bit into the fact that no money exchanged hands and the wording of CTV's statement. And so why I think that's significant is because it might mean that this isn't completely done and put in the rear window. And I think that there is always the possibility that this opens Patrick Brown up to further questions. I mean, at the same time, I think if Patrick Brown didn't

feel like he could field those questions, he probably wouldn't have entered the race. Let's move on to Jean Charest. Very long resume. He was in Brian Mulroney's cabinet, led the Progressive Conservatives in the 90s. The time is now for all Canadians to let the future begin. Que l'avenir commence. It is my pleasure to introduce you to le chef du parti progressiste conservateur du Canada, It is my pleasure to introduce you to the leader of the Progressive Conservative Party

of Canada, Jean Charest. A Liberal Premier of Quebec walks like a duck. It looks like a duck. It's a duck. But I trust both positively and negatively. How how is all of that experience going to factor into his campaign? Well, it's created his slogan already built to win. And from everything I've seen him say in the few days that have ensued since since he officially declared, it's kind of the central part of what he's pitching, right? It's that I'm not like inexperienced. I'm not just, you know, out there scrapping back and forth. I'm here to lead our party and then also to lead the country. And I guarantee you if there's one thing I know and I have learned in politics, I know how to win.

The question is whether and who it resonates with. Like, I think there's, you know, you and I are probably on like the bottom end of people who remember that time in office and remember his political career. But I can tell you that I don't think my younger sisters do. And they're not young. They're like in their 30s. Relatively, I guess I should say they're not young. Like there's a lot of voters between 18 and 35 who probably are not super well acquainted with Mr. Charest's political history. And so his experience might not clinch the vote for them. And so, again, it will be interesting to see what sort of policy platform he ends up putting forward that differentiates him from Pierre Polyev or even from Patrick Brown, because, you know, I think of issues like climate change. Another candidate here who accepts that climate change will have, you know, very disastrous impacts and that governments need to do something to mitigate those impacts.

But it's certainly his experience that he's leaning on. I think his critics will jump on the fact that that experience comes with a lot of baggage as well, which is kind of a unique thing that he'll face in this campaign. Well, Polyev is already calling him a liberal, right? Yes. Which is like in conservative land, what worse insult can you lob? Like, they're not, that's effective, you know what I mean? For voters, I think. Okay, two more candidates to quickly go through. Lesley Lewis, who you mentioned before. Canadians across the country are ready for a government that believes in unity, hope, and compassion. I want to help build that government.

She was in the 2020 leadership race and came in a strong third place. And she has since become an MP in Ontario. And what role could Lewis play in the leadership race, you think? I think she's definitely one to watch and one not to underestimate. And by that, I mean exactly what you just pointed out. She was remarkable.

I mean, she was unheard of, essentially, among the masses when she ran for the leadership. And she actually won the popular vote in the second ballot. Like, she became very popular within the party. She won her seat when she ran in the leadership and she actually won the popular vote in the second ballot. Like she became very popular within the party. She won her seat when she ran in the last election as a conservative. And she has a distinct set of values as well that offer choice to conservative voters. And by that, I mean she is socially conservative.

So she, for example, was against conversion therapy, against conversion therapy as a practice, but didn't support the legislation banning it because she was worried about people not being able to, as she put it, like talk to their priests or have that kind of freedom to talk about the issue. She's kind of unabashedly pro-life. She would ban sex-selective abortion and coerced abortion. She'd stop foreign funding for it. Like there's lots of things that she's already put forward and spoken about. She was also during COVID big on not being supportive of vaccine mandates. When will this government follow the example of Ontario and finally restore the freedom of Canadians by removing these unscientific and undemocratic vaccine federal mandates?

Like I said, she has like a particular set of values as well. And I wouldn't underestimate the possibility of her doing well. At the same time, it was her supporters that ultimately really helped clinch the victory for O'Toole because, again, of that ranked ballot, because you have this wild ranked ballot system and certain ridings worth certain amounts. And it's just like a very strategic game. So she has the possibility of being like a so-called kingmaker in all this too, strategically, just given the rules of the race. Right. She could feasibly hand it to Polyam, for example. Yeah, exactly.

Okay. And I'll just mention Ontario independent MPP Roman Baber is also running. You might remember how last year, Premier Doug Ford booted him from caucus for speaking out against lockdowns. Candidates still have until April 19th to put their names in. Do you think we're going to see anyone else enter the race? I think we could. MP Scott Aitchison is considering it. It sounds like he'll go for it. But the big names like Michael Chong, Peter McKay, they ruled it out over the weekend and just before us. So I would be surprised to see anyone more. But at the same time, this is a lot more than even two months ago we thought possible. Everyone was talking about it as a coronation and this certainly is not going to be a coronation it's going to be a

it's going to be a big fight it seems like. Vaji final question for you today who do you think the liberals are pulling for here who do you think they want to win? Okay this question is so interesting and I feel like I've been talking to as many liberals as I can to try and figure it out because what I have noticed lately from a lot of MPs and backbenchers, I will specify, that their thinking is they're going to be in a bit of trouble if Trudeau is still the leader in the next election, regardless of whether it's in a general against Pierre Polyev just because, again, there's like more of a punctuated choice. And the narrative that liberals have been very successful at putting out there about conservatives is ones around being sort of socially stuck and not progressive and like almost making them a bit of a boogeyman. In some cases, the conservatives do a lot of things that support that or that feed into that narrative. But in a lot of cases as well, the liberals have successfully almost like amplified that in order to make it so that people are a bit scared and go vote for the liberals to keep them out. And the people I've spoken to think they'll have more success in employing something like that, a strategy like that against Polyev.

Jean Charest is a bit of, they're a bit nervous about in theory, just because he is sort of similar to them in some ways in the kinds of policies that he would put forward and like the way he communicates, all that kind of stuff, right? Like there's less of a choice between the two. But also, I just think it's so interesting that so many liberals I talk to are like, well, we're most nervous if Trudeau is still around as our leader to go up against any of these. Like they feel like a fresh face would would really be much more helpful to them in defeating whomever the conservatives elect. Because the thing is, it might not even matter that much. Like the liberals have been around a long time. History has dictated that like we don't elect, you know, 17 governments in a row. Yes, we do not. People like change, right?

And so the Liberals will have their work cut out for them either way. So the focus almost inward there turns a bit to who will lead them through the next election. Though, I mean, I have no information about whether it won't be Trudeau. I'd be surprised. All right, Bashi, that was awesome. Thank you so much for this. It's so great to have you back. And we'll talk to youau. I'd be surprised. All right, Vashti, that was awesome. Thank you so much for this. It's so great to have you back and we'll talk to you soon. Thank you, Jamie. Great pleasure to be with you as always. All right, that's all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening to FrontBurner.

Talk to you tomorrow.