Front Burner - Conservatives lose again. What now?

Episode Date: September 22, 2021

Leader Erin O’Toole brought a moderate strategy to the Conservative election campaign, but his loss was nearly identical to his predecessor's. What went wrong, and what that means for the party’s future.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Good afternoon, Mr. O'Toole. Hannah Thibodeau with CBC National News. How concerned are you about the rumblings over your leadership?

We're all disappointed with the results from last night. The day after the election, as the Conservative Party leader gets pummeled with questions about his future in the party, Aaron O'Toole says a few simple things over and over again. We're all disappointed. We're going to learn our lessons from this loss. And one more thing. The 36 days, I did get to meet more and more Canadians. They got to see our party and

that we're there for Canadians. And I'm very confident that we will be there for a victory next time. O'Toole came into this election with a more moderate vision of the Conservative Party. And his new strategy delivered an election loss almost identical to his predecessor, who resigned before the year was out. Today on Front Burner, what went wrong for O'Toole and why he's still clinging to his leadership and his moderate vision. Senior writer with CBC's Parliamentary Bureau, J.P. Tasker, is here with me to explain. JP, hello. Happy day after the election. Hey, Jamie. Thanks for having me. Nice to be with you again. It is always so great to have you on. Back in March, O'Toole made this really clear pitch

to his party. You can't keep banging your head against the wall, essentially, and expect a different result. And this election, he tried to put that into action. So first, talk to me about what that strategy entailed. Yeah, so back in the 2015 and 2019 elections, you know, it didn't go all that well for the Conservatives, right? So Erin O'Toole told party members earlier this year at their policy convention, we need to change or we'll wither away. The Conservative Party must show that we too have the courage to meet this extraordinary moment and change. We have lost two elections in five and a half years. In that time, we've had four leaders. We must present new ideas, not make the same arguments, hoping that maybe this time more Canadians will come around to our position.

The message was essentially, let's change or die. We need to modernize to meet voters where they are. You know, we can't be the party of anti-abortion activists and and slash and burn spending policies or climate denialism and expect to win elections in the urban areas of this country and he really wanted the party to kind of like shed its image while also staying true to some of their foundational principles like a smaller government and lower taxes and then let's talk about how that played out during the campaign. So tell me about the different ways his new moderate ideas maybe clashed with the more traditionally conservative factions of

his party. Yeah, so he did present himself as a moderate. You know, he said off the top that he's avowedly pro-choice. He left little doubt on that issue. As you know, I'm a pro-choice member of parliament and leader of the Conservative Party. And I will always defend the right of women to make health decisions for themselves and always defend the right of access in all parts of the country. of the country. I've said that on many occasions during this campaign. I will say it every day to make sure that people can hear loud and clear that the Conservatives are here to stand up for your rights and to make sure we get the country back on its feet with our recovery plan. They were clearly well prepared for the Liberal attacks on that issue this time around, unlike Andrew Scheer in 2019. His platform included a lot of big spending. He's certainly not a fiscal hawk like some of his

predecessors. And he was trying to cultivate a relationship with the blue collar working classes of this country. He released a bunch of labor friendly policy proposals. I think really, he was trying to replicate some of the success of Boris Johnson in the United Kingdom. You know, to replicate some of the success of Boris Johnson in the United Kingdom. You know, he was pushing a more compassionate form of conservatism, if you will, kind of patriotic, but a little more fiscally progressive. And that's what he followed through on. And I think that he was hoping that this shift to the centre would really have more of an appeal to suburban dwellers and the GTA in particular.

You know, this push to the centre that he was making, did he come up against friction from his own party? Yeah, he did run up against some people in the party who were a little reluctant to go to the center. You know, this party is obviously an amalgamation of the former conservative, progressive conservative party and the reforming Canadian alliance parties. And a lot of the ground troops, a lot of the people who work for this party day in and day out on the ground and riding spread across this country

are more conservative minded, not necessarily centrist. So there were some grumblings, but very little of it spilled out into the public. Most everyone kind of fell in line and stood behind Mr. O'Toole because they thought that was their best shot of unseating Justin Trudeau,

who, of course, is the common enemy of all people on the right of this political spectrum. You got to wonder if, you know, I wondered if maybe one of his biggest hurdles or issues that he faces face from his own party was some 85 percent of his candidates refused to say whether they were vaccinated. some 85% of his candidates refused to say whether they were vaccinated. Yeah, exactly. There was not a lot of discussion in this campaign about climate change, even though we know that some of his MPs and candidates weren't all that thrilled with his plan on climate action. But he refused repeatedly. Like, I was with him on the campaign trail for a week. He refused repeatedly to say whether his candidates had been vaccinated against COVID-19.

I think it's because there are a number of people who hadn't been vaccinated, right? There are people within the Conservative caucus and people who are running for this party who have not yet had a shot. You're not answering the vaccination status of your candidates, but you've committed to appointing a health minister who is fully vaccinated. So how are you going to find out who's vaccinated and who isn't? I have said from the start of this campaign, and you know this, Stephanie, that we have a rule that everyone that's campaigning for us, candidates, people going door to door, have to use vaccines. And if someone is not fully vaccinated vaccinated they must use a daily rapid test and follow all the public health guidance in the provinces they're in we've said that

from the beginning of the campaign we shouldn't be in a pandemic election you've heard me say that we are going to always focus on the health and well-being of canadians so i think he was really trying to do this delicate dance, right, of trying to appeal to most people who are comfortable with vaccines and those within his own party who maybe not anti-vaxxers, but who are a little reluctant to embrace public health measures like vaccine Let's talk about how the strategy worked or didn't work Monday night. And, you know, you mentioned the GTA before and how the strategy was largely aimed at getting those kind of urban voters to swing conservative. A big part of O'Toole's strategy was aimed at Ontario he actually ditched his plane and spent the last three days of the campaign busing through Ontario

and so what actually happened in Ontario on Monday so this was a liberal victory without question it's not the majority government that Mr. Trudeau wanted but the liberal brand is clearly incredibly strong in places where it matters most like the GTA and in Ontario I'm calling him Teflon Trudeau wanted, but the liberal brand is clearly incredibly strong in places where it matters most, like the GTA and in Ontario. I'm calling him Teflon Trudeau because nothing sticks to the sky. Everything just rolls right off him and voters keep returning him to power. He has built up this foundation in the GTA in particular that is just so hard to shake. With the proviso that there are still some votes left to be counted, the Conservatives are actually on track

to do worse in the GTA this time than they did in the last election. So even though there's been this shift towards the centre under O'Toole, Conservative incumbents have actually lost races. There's only two seats that are going Conservative this time. Yeah, why do you think that is, JP? Well, I think really what this all comes down to is the people just trusted the liberal team to continue this fight against COVID-19. The ballot box question of this election was pandemic management and how we're going to get ourselves out of this mess and what the post-pandemic

recovery is going to look like. And I think a lot of people just decide to go with the devil they know over someone they don't. In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization. Empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix.

I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people, and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household income? That's not a typo, 50%. That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples,

I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. I know that there were concerns that the People's Party of Canada, led by Maxime Bernier, could take votes away from the Conservatives. And did that play out? Have we seen that play out? Yes. I don't know if they're catastrophic, but we have already started to tally the numbers. And we found that 21 ridings, in 21 ridings across the country, the combined Conservative

Party and People's Party vote share is actually more than the winning share for the Liberal or NDP candidates. So obviously, it's not necessarily a one for one, not all People's Party supporters are former Conservative voters. But based on some of the data I got from the CBC Vote Compass, you know, we had 10s of 1000s of people fill out that survey, about 58% of all PPC supporters are former Conservative voters. So there's no question that this resurgent People's Party did hurt the conservatives, and that it really may have cost them a few seats in this

campaign. Okay. And I know that there are big questions kind of post election day about whether or not this kind of relative strength we saw around the PPC will continue, or if this was just very tied to the pandemic and sort of the anti-vax, anti-lockdown movement. Was there anywhere in Canada where O'Toole's strategy did actually seem to work? Yeah, so his more moderate form of conservatism, this kind of red Toryism, he could really sell it to people in Atlantic Canada. They did make gains. Seven seats were called for the Conservatives last night. You're actually seeing a sizable boost in Newfoundland and Labrador in particular. They're up five points there over where they were in the 2019 election in PEI. Nova Scotia, there's about a four point bump.

And in Quebec, too, I should add as well. They're up about three points. So some parts of the country where conservatism is not necessarily very strong, or they are much more inclined to go for moderate progressive conservative type people. O'Toole did well. And also, you know, of course, the conservatives have always been able to count on Alberta. And so how did they do there? And what does that tell you about the strategy? Well, Alberta, of course, is in the throes of a public health emergency, right? And Premier Jason Kenney has taken on a lot of the blame for a bad pandemic response. And so that

situation has certainly hurt the conservative brand. Yeah, there is a dip based on just the preliminary numbers that we have right now, which don't include the mail-in ballots, which are coming some point this week. The Conservative vote share is down about 14% over 2019. There has been a large decline, and a lot of that has gone to the People's Party. But in the urban areas, the Liberals and the NDP are really poised to make some gains. But in the urban areas, the Liberals and the NDP are really poised to make some gains. And it looks like at this point that the Liberals will be elected at least in one riding in Calgary and they could pick up one in Edmonton. And the NDP are likely to pick up two seats in the Edmonton area as well. You know, so obviously a bunch of things seem to be happening here, right? Like the PPC seems to have hived off at least some votes for the conservatives.

Jason Kenney's unpopularity seems to have made an impact out West. We are in the middle of a pandemic. And so perhaps the voters chose to go with the devil that they knew. And, you know, it also is probably worth saying here that this, because of the pandemic, this was an election that was probably hard for O'Toole to win, right? Like he didn't have very much time to introduce himself to the country. You know, he couldn't really get out there and meet people in person very much. And so this strategy, you could hear it loud and clear in his concession speech on Monday night. He believes that this moderate approach is a winning strategy. Over the past 36 days, we have demonstrated to Canadians that we've set out on a path to engage more Canadians in our Conservative movement.

One that addresses the challenges of today while advancing the dreams of tomorrow. Ours is a conservatism that dwells not in the past, but learns from it to secure the future. Like, does he have a point here? Should the Conservatives stay the course? I think he's done fairly well. I mean, as much as I've kind of talked down his success last night, I think he had a fairly good campaign. You know, he was able to hold the Liberals to a minority. But all of the polls, when you look back at the polls from before the August election

call, the Liberals were in a huge lead, right? Six, seven, eight points. And now after the results are all counted, it looks like the Conservatives have actually won the popular vote two points over the Liberals. So the Liberal support did crater after the election call, as many voters, you know, expressed anger with this decision to call an election during this health crisis. So I think that there is some success that they can point to in this campaign, the Conservatives, you know, and clearly last night, O'Toole was trying to spin this as a victory. He said, you know, I'm not going to go anywhere. And he was trying to scare the party base a bit. You know, he mentioned five times in his concession speech that the country

could be headed for another election in 18 months. And he said, the party has to be ready. And for another election in 18 months. And he said the party has to be ready. And clearly my push to the center, while not entirely successful this time, has also not been a complete failure. And how do you think the party is responding? Like, do they think he has a point that this is the strategy

that they need to employ moving forward. Well, you can't win in this country without doing well in the greater Toronto area. Some people in Alberta might want him to be completely on the right of the spectrum and stick to principles on firearms and such. But I think that Mr. O'Toole and the people around him understand that you need to be a more moderate form of conservative to win elections in this country. Brian Mulroney was not a hard right kind of guy, right? And he posted the largest majority government in the history of the country in 1984. I'm very confident in Mr. Mulroney.

He's making me very proud to be a Canadian because I know there's going to be a change of government on September the 4th. Because we're voting, we say no. me very proud to be a Canadian because I know there's going to be a change of government on September the 4th. So I think that Mr. O'Toole has some convincing to do. I think there will be cleavages emerge in the coming months. People who are going to threaten his leadership try and take him down. But I think that they have to stay the course because right now, as it is, they are really not a relevant party in urban Canada. And I think that the winds of change will blow again. They just weren't blowing all that strong last night. And I think that if Mr. O'Toole sticks to a more moderate position, I think that he can be in a good spot to actually win again in a few years time, because I think eventually voters will tire of the Liberals.

So I don't know if you're a betting man, but if you were to bet, do you think he's going to hang on? Do you think O'Toole will hang on here? Well, I am a betting man. I love to go to Woodbine racetracks. I'm glad you asked me about this. I did not know that about you. I grew up around the horses. I think that he has a chance to hang on. Absolutely. I think that there will be people emerge who are eager to unseat him. Pierre Polyev, who is a Conservative MP, he won handedly in his race in Carleton,

just outside Ottawa last night. He has already been collecting the names and phone numbers and email addresses of many supporters over the last number of weeks. He was thinking about running in 2020, but he didn't. I think that he is a possible candidate to try and take a run at this leadership. He is definitely more on the right wing of the

spectrum. But I think that, like I mentioned earlier, the timeline is very short. I think that if there is an election under two years time, it will be very difficult for the party to turn around a Conservative Leadership Convention to get somebody else in place. And in fact, if Mr. O'Toole doesn't face any scandals of some sort, he can hang on until the next policy convention, which isn't until 2023, because that's when a possible leadership review would happen. A leadership review doesn't happen until a policy convention. So he could really rag the puck until then and try and hang on and push off any potential people who are trying to unseat him. potential people who are trying to unseat him. Right. And I'm sure that the thought of another election in 18 minds is exactly what everybody wants to hear today. So, J.P., thank you very much. Thank you so much, Janie.

All right. So before we go today, more political follow fallout from Alberta's handling of the COVID-19 crisis this summer. Yesterday, Premier Jason Kenney moved Tyler Shandro out of his position as the Minister of Health. In a cabinet shuffle, Kenney swapped Shandro with the province's Minister of Labour and Immigration. He's one of the hardest working people I've ever known, and he has brought his heart to his job. However, as this crisis evolves, so too must our response to it and so I have accepted Minister Shandro's resignation as Minister of Health. Last week, Shandro was the one to announce details about the province's vaccine passport system after Kenny apologized for moving away from treating COVID like a pandemic. Kenny offered no statement explaining the move of Shandro.

That is all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening to FrontBurner, and we'll talk to you tomorrow.