Front Burner - ‘Dead pool’, drought and a drying Colorado River

Episode Date: February 28, 2023

The Colorado River – the lifeblood of the American southwest – is drying up. The river’s basin supplies water to 40 million Americans across seven states, plus two states in Mexico. It’s partly because of climate change, a major drought, and because of century-old rules that govern who has the rights to the water. And it’s a big deal: the Colorado River is a key source of drinking water, power production, and crop irrigation for agriculture that helps feed North America.  Today on Front Burner, guest host Jodie Martinson speaks with CBC Washington correspondent Alex Panetta, who recently got back from reporting in Arizona, about the politics of drought and how it’s fueling a fight over its most precious resource – water. For transcripts of this series, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Jodi Martinson in for Jamie Poisson. The Colorado River, the lifeblood of the American Southwest, is drying up. We know what these conditions are. We're not looking at graphs and models of what has happened in the past.

You know, we're experiencing it on a daily basis. I have dreams about it. I wake up, it's the first thing on my mind. This is the drought in action right here. I have never seen it this bad before. I can actually see changes, not just from when I was a kid, but just within the last three to five years. The river's basin supplies water to 40 million Americans across seven states, plus two states in Mexico.

It's partly because of climate change and a major drought, and because of century-old rules that govern who has the rights to the water. At stake, farming, power, drinking water, and food for hundreds of millions of people, including Canadians. The U.S. government is expected to announce major changes about who gets what, any day now. And it's expected to trigger serious tensions, even feuds, between communities. Today on FrontBurner, we're talking to CBC's Washington correspondent, Alex Panetta, who recently got back from reporting in Arizona.

And Alex is here to talk about the politics of drought and how that's fueling a fight over its most precious resource, water. Hi, Alex. Thanks for being here. Good to be here. So, before we get into it, what is the Colorado River system? Can you just describe it for us? goes through seven states and ends in Mexico. And it provides water to 40 million Americans, and it provides the irrigation for farms that feed hundreds of millions of North Americans, including you Canadians. And so let's talk about the problem. Why is that river that's so important to the Colorado River system at risk of a catastrophic collapse right now? Two words, supply and demand. Too much demand for water and too little supply in that river. And these are separate problems that have emerged over time. Go back a century to the very beginning.

There was a monumental mathematical mix-up at the very start. States got together, did some math about how much water the river produced over 20 years and said, okay, so here's how much we've got. The only problem was they based that estimate on like the wettest 20-year period. It had been unusually wet. And so they said, okay, well, you know, Northern states get, you know, seven and a half million acre feet. The Southern states get more than seven and a half million acre feet. And Mexico was later added and got a million and a half. So it's, you know, it takes you to about 17 million acre feet. The Southern states get more than seven and a half million acre feet. And Mexico was later added and got a million and a half. So it's, you know, it takes you to about 17 million acre feet of water. Small problem is that the river has been producing,

I don't know, 14 and a half million since then. And it's gotten even worse. You mentioned climate change and drought, the worst drought in a thousand years. River's now producing 12 million. And over that time, the demand problem got worse because you wound up with Los Angeles and San Diego becoming metropolises, Phoenix. I'm not even sure if it existed back in 1922, Las Vegas. And so demand surpassed what they had ever expected and supply just didn't reach what they would have anticipated at the time. Bottom line is they've got to reduce their usage by about 30% and do it pretty quickly. Okay, so a long time ago, they all got together. They said,

well, look at this river. It's this high, and we can divide it this way. And they were wrong. It was exceptionally high at the time, and since then, it's just been falling because of climate change and increased demand. Exactly. Okay. And you mentioned a few of these major cities that get their water from the Colorado River system. Just tell us all the places that you can kind of rattle off that rely on the Colorado River for their water every day. Well, Phoenix, Arizona, Las Vegas, Nevada, every day? Well, Phoenix, Arizona, Las Vegas, Nevada, Mexicali in Baja, California, Tucson, Arizona, St. George, Utah, Flagstaff, Arizona, places like Coachella Valley, Palm Springs. Yeah, it's a long list and 40 million people over seven states.

Wow. And if you aren't part of that list, if you do not get your water from the Colorado River, why do you think this story is still a very important story right now? Well, it affects the entire continent, even people in Canada. I mean, you go to the grocery store in January, February, you ever wonder why you get those beautiful green vegetables in January in Canada? Well, almost the entirety of the lettuce that you buy in a Canadian grocery store in the months of December, January, February, March come from Colorado River water. But if these farms in this region have to cut their water usage, they may have to grow fewer crops, but that means fewer profits. And how do you compensate for that? Well, you charge more for the crops you do grow. And so that means that you might feel it in the

wallet at a Canadian grocery store. And that's the reality of climate change for us when our groceries cost more because of a warming climate. And is it fair to say that some of the people that you met in this region feel like they are on the very front lines of a changing climate and water scarcity? Yeah, there's this woman I talked to, Karen Nabity, lives just outside Phoenix in a town that's had its water allocation threatened. And she says, yeah, you know, this is not an Arizona story. This is a story for everyone. I think there's a lot of people throughout the world, but all of Arizona, for sure, and most of the United States, these are being paying attention to this.

We're in our 26th year of drought in the state of Arizona. Wells have been going dry, water is diminishing, and people need to start conserving water immediately. If they're not conserving now, everybody needs to do their part. The nightmare scenario that everybody is watching closely right now is something called Deadpool. Can you explain what that means? Yes, Deadpool. It sounds like a bad Hollywood movie, but it's actually a bad real-world scare scenario. And that's the point at which a water system collapses. Now, most people know of the Hoover Dam near Las Vegas, built in the 1930s. It holds back this human-made reservoir at Lake Mead.

Well, that water level has been dropping precipitously the last few years. If it continues at this pace, then it stops working for power generation. And if it continues even further beyond that, the system, it paralyzes. Water stops flowing through the Hoover Dam and it creates a collapse of this entire Colorado River system with repercussions I don't even know we've entirely gamed out. So at that point, when we hit Deadpool, it literally means no water is going past the Hoover Dam further downstream to places like Arizona and California. Is that correct? Exactly. So when we talk about that, like how likely is it that that's actually going to happen, that we'll reach that low level? Well, 10 years ago, you would have said, well, it's very remote.

It's possible maybe one day in the distant future. But if you look at the production of this river, it's accelerated. If you look at the post-2020 water level in Lake Mead, it's declined precipitously. precipitously. Well, you keep it up for another three, four, five years, and then suddenly, at this current pace, you're facing the inactive pool level, which is the rate at which power generation stops on that river system. And you continue another couple of years, and it's deadpool. So you're looking at a potentially catastrophic problem in five to seven years. The federal government's sufficiently worried about this that they're about to step in and force everyone to cut their usage. They warned that the the crisis is afoot and again we're

talking about like major cities south of that dam yeah some of the biggest cities in the united states and frankly cities where people are moving to and i don't blame them this you know i was just there for this reporting assignment this is one one of the most beautiful regions on this continent. You have these terracotta-colored mansions illuminated in golden sunsets and surrounded in desert landscaping with horse ranches on one side, cities on the other. It's just an idyllic and wonderful place to live. The only problem is they don't have that much water. Okay, so tell us about this reporting trip that you took. You traveled to Arizona, and you spoke to people who are already having to take the steps on their own to save water and reduce their reliance overall on the river system. What did you find out? Yeah, so how's this for a glimpse of a slightly disturbing

future? The unincorporated community of Rio Verde Foothills. It's basically a town without a mayor. It was ranch land a few years ago, but it keeps growing so quickly that it's now a community of hundreds of homes outside of Phoenix. Well, they were cut off their water supply on January 1st because they were getting their water from the municipality of Scottsdale. And Scottsdale said, well, we don't want to be wasting our water rights on you anymore. We don't want to surpass what we're allowed to use and to be using it on the neighbor. Right. We're limited. We have a constraint. And so you guys are out. You're out. And so this community, which was hauling in water, they didn't have like,

they weren't piped. They weren't connected by pipes to Scottsdale. They had trucks supplying some of their water and wells using groundwater for the rest. Well, the water haulers had to go farther to find water. And then, you know, one I talked to, John Hornuer, was telling me that he has to go farther and farther now because another community he was getting it from cut him off. And subsequently, he's driving hours more each day just to get access to water to bring it to his customers. He says it's unsustainable and he's had to charge more.

If things don't change, it's going to be a tough struggle out here. Well, I guess put it this way. If things don't change, the area won't survive. Okay. Right now we're bringing in 55 million gallons about per year, all the water haulers together. That's how much this community uses. There's no way we can bring in 55 million gallons a year from sources that take us an additional two, two and a half, three hours per truck. You know, it just, it doesn't make sense. You can't do it. So you're literally talking about a guy who has a truck with a tank on the back and he drives somewhere, fills it up and then drives it back to this little exurb. And then does he pump it into people's tanks or something like that?

Exactly. Houses get their water pumped into a tank and the people who do this job are saying it's getting harder and harder because I got to go farther and farther. And they're charging more and more, more than double. I think some people are paying three times more. So it's costing people hundreds of dollars a month to get water now. And the community in question is relatively wealthy, but not everyone is rich there. And some people are having a hard time paying for water. And so what do they do? Like, what are the people who are having a hard time paying for water. Hmm. And so what do they do? Like, what are the people who are having a hard time absorbing that cost? What are they doing to try to cut back on their water?

I heard about people showering at the gym, eating on paper plates so that they don't have to do the dishes anymore, collecting rainwater in buckets outside their house so they can flush the toilet with those buckets, flushing the toilet less frequently, like, you know, doing a two-for-one special basically on flushing. I heard great slogans like, you know, don't blush, share a flush, that kind of stuff. Some people are peeing outdoors on their property. So they're taking these pretty drastic measures to save water usage. And the irony of it all is they probably use less water than a lot of us do in other parts of the continent.

It's just that they happen to live in a place where water is more scarce. What an image this person out in the back of their mansion in the desert peeing outside to save water. Tells you a lot. Here we are. In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen

my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household income? That's not a typo, 50%. That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Cups. What happens if those water trucks get cut off? Like, what happens if there is just no more water for this particular exurb? They go farther and farther. Now, there may be a temporary solution.

The Scottsdale and Rio Verde are looking at working out a two- or three-year arrangement while Rio Verde finds a permanent solution. And that will include either setting up their own water agency or buying water from a company, actually a Canadian based company, EPCOR, to supply water to the community over the long term. Now, I checked with this company, EPCOR, and they assure me that if they wind up being selected as the supplier, that they won't be shipping water across the border. This won't be Canadian water coming to this community. But the debate about what to do has kind of torn the community apart. And it just, it's the kind of fight you're starting to see in this region over water. People are arguing about whether they want to set up a new government agency versus entrusting a private company. And it's gotten very heated. You know, one woman,

Karen Nabody, who I mentioned earlier, was telling me that because she was proposing setting up a water agency, she got threats. People talked about coming to her home with pitchforks and torches. We do have a few residents that were getting pretty aggressive and some had threatened to come to my home with torches and pitchforks and all that good stuff. So needless to say, a sheriff's report was filed and I have wonderful neighbors. And so those people came and sat on my patio and luckily no one showed up. But it's unfortunate that those kind of things happened in our community. Nothing happened to her, fortunately. But it's gotten very heated.

And how bad do you think it could get? Did you get a sense of what people are preparing for? Well, so it's pitted neighbor against neighbor in this one community. But then if you take a step back, it's also pitting state against state, rural areas versus urban areas as different regions vie for the highest possible water allocation. So what you have are farmers and city dwellers arguing. And the numbers tell us that about 70% of the water is used for farming. So city dwellers say, well, it's, you know, you farmers have got to cut back your usage. Stop growing alfalfa, which is the, one of the prime drains on water usage.

Well, the farmers say, well, sorry, we were here first. We've been growing crops here for over a century. You came and built cities here suddenly. Why are we the ones who should take a hit? We have ancestral water rights. We, and we feed the entire continent and one one thing to keep in mind is this this is a country you know i don't need to tell anyone that the united states has got significant political tensions already it's a country that already has that sort of urban rural cultural and political split and it's already pretty explosive and then you throw water into the mix. You know, I was talking to one farmer, Nancy Kaywood,

near Phoenix, who's had to let some of her land fallow because she just, you know, she doesn't have enough water to grow the crops she usually would grow. Talks about going to the store and hearing people disparage farmers. Our cities are encouraging industry to come into this area. And when they do, it requires more workforce.

And so people are moving here right and left. And they come from big cities. And they get here and first they like that little rural flavor until they smell the dairies. Or they see the crop dusters. And then all of a sudden, they don't like it. And they want agriculture out of here they're very anti and you're thinking wow you don't know where your food and come your food and fiber come from said you know one woman talking about how she hated farmers this woman had just arrived from

california and she says well thanks welcome to arizona you know and you know so she blames the people in the suburbs and she thinks that city dwellers and california the state of california which has the oldest water rights need to take a bigger hit because they haven't they haven't so far lately it's been panal county farmers taking the hit from the water shortages and so now they need to talk about california taking a hit they need to talk about California taking a hit. They need to talk about cities, industry. It needs to be divided a little more fairly. It's kind of unfair that... Wow. Okay, so you're really painting a picture of a country divided

along those lines of rural and urban, and now, you know, one of the most important things we need to live at the center of those conflicts. So you've hinted at this and you've touched on this a little bit. An important piece of all of this is the national politics between states that are playing out. Last summer, the U.S. government actually stepped in and gave the seven states along this river system an ultimatum. What did the government ask them to do? So there's what's called a Tier 1 cut in water usage, and that was something that was imposed recently because of the declining water level at Lake Mead.

Well, just this last summer, the United States government said, okay, we're going to hit tier two in 2023, which at the end of the day means a cut in usage of 20 to 40%. 20 to 40% of your water usage. Yeah. And, you know, the U.S. government told the states, all right, now you guys find a voluntary solution because this is the way it's tended to work along the river. You know, you try not to have the federal government impose a top-down solution. You have communities working with their various states and the states working together and

trying to negotiate an outcome. Well, surprise, surprise, they failed to come up with a solution. Well, surprise, surprise, they failed to come up with a solution. And part of the reason is California has not signed on to a solution that other states find agreeable. And California is the biggest water user. Is that correct? don't have to cut, um, anything or don't have to cut much anytime soon because they've been using water, uh, this water system for over a hundred years. And they, they have legal entitlements, which, uh, give them priority access to the river. And so essentially, you know, this is Arizona's problem and it's New Mexico's problem and Nevada's problem. Whereas the other states say, well, we, we cannot come to a solution without you. I mean, the solution without California is we stop using water in our states. That's just not tenable.

So the states missed the deadline to come to a voluntary agreement of January 31st. And the deadline had already been pushed back. And now the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, which is part of the Department of Interior, is poised to announce any week its allocation levels for the various states. And then the states have to decide on which districts get how much. It's a heck of a messy problem. It's state against state. It's regions against regions within the states. And then it's neighbor against neighbor, as we discussed earlier.

Wow. Okay. So the government said states solve this problem. The states didn't meet their deadlines. Now we're waiting for the federal government to step in. And I can only imagine that will bring a lot of legal challenges from all the players you just described. Absolutely.

And here's the most terrifying part. There is going to be no solution that takes effect in the next few weeks that the States are going to potentially be told, here's what you need to do. Then they're going to be lawsuits and those lawsuits could last months, if not years, probably, probably years. And, and, and in the meantime, if things don't

get better, if this once in a millennium drought doesn't end, uh, you're going to see that water level drop without the solutions coming into effect. And that, well, that's the nightmare scenario. Let's hope we never get there. So, Alex, you've already explained how this region is so important to Canadians and really to the whole continent when we go to the grocery store and buy produce. But what are we going to learn through this process, no matter which way it goes, about the future of trying to negotiate around changing resources and climate change. That, you know, people have been talking about migration and that there are a lot of pressures on the Canadian border, on the U.S. border with Mexico, in Europe, in the Mediterranean. And a lot of this is driven by poverty. It's driven by a natural disaster and that poverty and those natural disasters are only going to ramp up. And, and, you know, you have extremely wealthy people living outside of Phoenix fighting over water now. And you have people talking about maybe having to move out of their communities in one of the wealthiest parts of one of the wealthiest countries on earth.

in one of the wealthiest parts of one of the wealthiest countries on earth. It's a wake-up call that this is the kind of thing we're going to see more often. I think the Colorado River is a particular problem that's not just due to climate change. It's due to a bunch of factors, historical factors and more recent ones. But I thought it was really ironic that on this reporting assignment, I was also interviewing people about migration, about irregular migration. And I stood at the border with Mexico and I saw people walking over the dry riverbed of what used to be the Colorado River before it was diverted for agricultural use. And that's where Mexico meets Arizona and California.

There's like a triangle there. And people are just walking over and claiming asylum in the United States. And I just thought it was, there was a symbolism there where people are walking over a dead river because they're trying to escape poverty and thinking that might happen a lot more often. And it's going to happen more often in the United States if they don't find a way to keep that river alive elsewhere in the country. Yeah. The rich will get the water and the rest will go out of the boat. Well, apparently some of the rich aren't getting the water either these days. So it's going to cause a problem across our entire society and from Canadian grocery stores to wealthy suburban communities. But yeah, the poorest people are going to take the heaviest hit

as they always do in times of scarcity. Okay, well, we'll stay tuned to hear what the U.S. government decides to announce about the major changes, about who gets what, I guess, any day now. Thanks so much for telling us about your trip. Thank you. That's all for today. I'm Jody Martinson, in for Jamie Poisson. Thanks for listening to FrontBurner. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.