Front Burner - Did NATO make a mistake in Ukraine?

Episode Date: December 9, 2021

Russia has sent almost 100,000 troops near the Ukraine border in recent weeks. Observers believe the state is trying to extract certain concessions from Europe, particularly assurances from NATO that Ukraine will never be able to join the security group. Janice Gross Stein was a founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs in Toronto. She argues that NATO’s "strategic ambiguity" toward Ukraine gave the country false hope we had its back — so now, we’re partly seeing the fallout of promises we couldn’t keep.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Angela Starrett. Hi, I'm Angela Starrett. Only 45 minutes south of the Russian border,

there's an artist who fills her studio with these whimsical, dreamy paintings. Flowers, kittens, teacups, drenched in color. The art is the product of Lena Vilusk in Kharkiv, Ukraine. These are pieces of just unabashed joy. But that joy has been a lot harder to find lately. Lena grew up further east in Donetsk, which has become a disputed pro-Russian territory since a war in 2014. Her father hid in his basement during that war to avoid getting shelled. She hasn't been back to her hometown since it changed hands.

And now she's worried about a repeat happening in her new home. Over the past few weeks, Russia has sent 90,000 troops to face Ukraine's borders. Ukrainian soldiers moved through the trenches in the Donetsk region, taking up positions just a few hundred metres from Russian-backed separatists. Russia is holding military exercises along Ukraine's border, but NATO claims it's also building up tens of thousands of troops covertly, possibly to attack or intimidate Ukraine into moving away from the West. Many people watching Eastern Europe at the moment are asking one

question. Is Russia going to invade Ukraine? The UK's most senior military officer doesn't know, but what everyone does know is the tension is rising. The tension got so bad this week, U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin had a secure call about how to fix this. The call started out friendly enough. Good to see you again. The two face-to-face in a video conference call for nearly two hours as alarming new satellite images show up to 100,000 Russian troops and a buildup of military equipment along the border with Ukraine. The White House says

President Joe Biden warned Russia will face a world of economic hurt if the troops cross over. He told President Putin directly that Russia... Lena says in Kharkiv, things in some ways are normal. I'm not familiar with the war. My father destroyed his health during active military actions. Lena says in Kharkiv, things in some ways are normal. People go to work, kids go to school. But she also feels this threat looming over her. She's hoping this is all just geopolitical saber-rattling, so that Russia can get certain concessions from the West.

But in case it's not, she's wondering if she should just move to another state. And in the midst of all of this, as Lena is trying to figure out what to do, the world's been scrambling to stop a war before it starts. Today on FrontBurner, Janice Stein is a founder of the Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto, and she says the only way forward is a diplomatic solution. Hello, Janice. Hello, Angela. So let's start, I guess, with the very basics here.

Why is Russia bringing its troops toward Ukraine right now? The big picture is that Russia and virtually any Russian considers Ukraine to be part of Russia during the very long period of the Soviet Union for almost 70 years. It was the breadbasket of the Soviet Union. The Russian Navy had its headquarters off the shores of the Crimea. So I had a major naval base there. So there of the Soviet Union, 1991, gave them the opportunity to reclaim their rightful independence. This world has a new country tonight, Ukraine. The White House says it is moving toward full diplomatic recognition of the former Soviet Republic. Poland, Canada, and the Russian Republic gave recognition today.

Ukraine is roughly the size and population... These are just two living stories that live in the minds and hearts of Ukrainians on the one hand and Russians on the other. They will always be different. So those of us who are outside of this, who have easy formulas for resolving it, don't really understand the grip that narrative history has on peoples. Can you, I guess, bring me up to speed a little bit in terms of what's happening right now? So most recently in the latest round of this is President Vladimir Zelensky, who was elected as president of Ukraine and ran on a platform that he would

try to accommodate with Russia and end the war. After about a year or so of effort, gave up on that strategy, there was no progress, turned toward the West and did really two things. One, openly and repeatedly asked that Ukraine be admitted to NATO. I would like some certainty for Ukraine.

If we are talking about NATO and the membership action plan, I would really like to get from Biden specifics, yes or no. And secondly, I asked the United States and Canada, for that matter, although we are not a player to anything like the degree that the United States is, for military assistance, by which he meant advisors, and Canada does have advisors helping the Ukrainian army, but more so more advanced military equipment, and the United States shipped considerable amounts.

military equipment. And the United States shipped considerable amounts. President Zelensky of Ukraine requested and received additional military equipment. And he reiterated in a much louder voice a demand to join NATO. So what did Putin do then? He moved, depending on who's counting, around 100,000 troops to the border. There are others on their way. And many are predicting that when the ground freezes in another month or so, there is a strong likelihood of a Russian invasion, full-out invasion of eastern Ukraine. What does Russia want there? Well, think about it this way, Angela. Ukraine is, of course, on the border of the Soviet Union. They are bordering territories because throughout the Soviet Union, they were part of the same

confederation, let me put it that way, enforced confederation. The demand to join NATO is a deeply threatening demand to Putin. This means that the Western alliance will be right up against the borders of Russia. And let me just make clear for our listeners what I think the Russian goal is here. It is not to invade all of Ukraine. It is actually what Putin has asked for. He did send irregular forces into the two eastern provinces of Ukraine in 2014 when he annexed Crimea. Russian troops moving swiftly to take control of military bases in Crimea, where voters decided to rejoin Russia. Armored Russian vehicles burst through the wall of Crimea's Belbeck base today,

firing warning shots and throwing sound grenades. And what he wants is those two provinces to be given autonomy within Ukraine. And why would he care about that? Because they would then have a veto on any Ukrainian decision to join either the European Union or NATO. And that is what he wants to prevent. Now, for the Ukrainians, that is an outrageous demand. Now, in fact, there is no chance that Ukraine will join NATO. But NATO has pursued a strategy of ambiguity, neither saying yes, nor no, but an ambiguous message of

get your house in order, become more democratic, improve your military capability, and then we'll talk about it. And in fact, that's the worst of all possible worlds. Why? Why do you think that? Why do I think that? It's risky if the Ukrainians believe that there is a route to joining NATO, because that raises, frankly, totally unrealistic expectations on the part of Ukrainian leaders. There have been two schools of thought over how to handle this recent troop buildup in Russia on the borders of Ukraine. Can you walk me through those? These are classic debates. One group would argue that it is a strategic mistake to push up against Russia's borders like this, that it is provocative, and that, in fact, the strategy the West has used for the last decade in Ukraine is what is provoking Russia finally beyond restraint. And the solution to this is to pull back and acknowledge Russian interests in its border states. The second group argues, no, Putin does this when he

smells weakness on the part of Western leaders. Putin has aggressive intent, and he is seizing a moment that he considers a moment of weakness in the United States to take advantage of the opportunity. And the only response to that is to stand up, to respond with force, to provide weapons and forces to Ukraine and to double down on the commitments to Ukraine. And you're hearing both arguments now all the time. In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization. Empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections.

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Just before I answer that question, Angela, let me just tell our viewers where Canada is officially. Our new chief of the defense staff, Wayne Ayer, was in Kiev last week and was really explicit, made an explicit statement. And he said, we will not be sending additional troops to Ukraine, because Canada was asked to do so. And he aligned himself with the provocation strategy, that it is important now not to provoke Russia, and that we must find a diplomatic solution. It's a very forthcoming statement from a chief of the defense staff. This requires a diplomatic solution to de-escalate the situation.

We've got to be very careful of crossing the line from deterrence into escalation. And so this is a tricky situation. Canada's not going to be able to do anything. What do I think? I think the likelihoods are so low, they are zero, that Western governments will commit forces, even were Putin to invade. So we are talking, by definition, about a diplomatic solution here, and it can go two ways. And this is what the conversation between Biden and Putin was about on Tuesday, that two-hour conversation. The first was, here are the economic consequences should you invade. And they're significant for Putin. The most important one is suspension of

the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a pipeline which will ship gas directly to Europe. The 1,230-kilometre-long Nord Stream 2 is almost complete and would transport natural gas from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea, bypassing Ukraine. That would deal a devastating blow to the country's role as a transit country for natural gas. In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel was a big proponent of it, but it would allow Russia to expand its gas exports directly into Europe.

Were that to be suspended, it is now on hold because of a German regulator, but were it to be suspended, that is a significant economic cost. In addition, the United States threatened additional financial sanctions, which will impose a cost on an economy that is heavily, heavily dependent on its gas exports. So that's the stick. Now, what's the carrot? It was an offer to Putin to begin a dialogue with him on the strategic future of Europe. And this matters to Putin. Putin believes that Russia is a great power, that it has been denied the respect that it deserves, that the collapse of the Soviet Union, as he put it, was the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century. And he wants status and respect. What responsibility do you think the West and NATO have for ratcheting up the tensions we're seeing right now?

I mean, did we do anything to get the situation to the point it is at today? Well, what I'm going to say is going to be very unpopular with many of our listeners. I believe it was a strategic mistake for NATO to approach Russia's borders. Well, one was encouraging Ukraine to believe that there is a path forward. The Baltic states, which were early joiners, we might ask ourselves whether

that was the best strategy, or we should have got mutual security guarantees for them from both the West and Russia. This is a perennial problem in international politics. Here's a thought experiment for our listeners. Imagine a hostile U.S. government were to come to power, hostile to us, and they wanted our gas reserves or our water, and they threatened us, and their troops came across the border. Can you imagine a single power in the world that would send troops to Canada to defend us? Not anyone. So all we borderlands, and I include Canada in that mix, we have always been clear-eyed about the fact that we live next door to a great power,

and Ukraine does too. It is that which makes it imperative to find a way of guaranteeing Ukrainian independence, but also making sure that Putin does not perceive Ukraine as the forward spear of Western intervention and as a threat to Russian sovereignty. And you brought up Canada there. And Canada has, of course, this huge Ukrainian diaspora here. So this is obviously a really important issue for us domestically. Did this domestic situation cloud our judgment, do you think? Well, all domestic situations cloud our judgment. Foreign policy is just domestic politics. Ukrainian Canadians, because these are all Canadians, many of whom have been in our country for decades and decades and decades, have an affinity and affection and caring, a concern for Ukraine. So of decades, have an affinity and affection that carry a concern for

Ukraine. So of course, this is going to be important on our government's agenda. And actually, because of that, I think our government could play a role here in bearing some of the diplomatic weight that we're going to have to exercise. And I think that's why Wayne Ayers, the chief of the defense staff, his statement was as consequential as it was, because the president of Ukraine listens to what Canadian governments say. There's been a close relationship. Our deputy Prime Minister is a Ukrainian-Canadian, Chrystia Freeland. There have been extraordinary close relationships and close contacts between Canada and Ukraine.

So it's very important to send a message here that Ukraine cannot realize all its aspirations for full independence and full determination of its own future. If there's any hope that Russia will not realize its full aspiration of reincorporating Ukraine into Russia, there has to be a compromise here. A poll shows 58% of Ukrainians outside the occupied regions of Donetsk and Luhansk now support NATO. That's way up from numbers in 2014. And we heard from a Ukrainian journalist, Olga Tokharyak, who basically argues Ukraine is not going to give up its ability to make political decisions at the

barrel of a gun. It's Ukrainians who decide that they want to be part of the Western world. So this is a direct result of Russian aggression against Ukraine. And Ukrainians see their NATO membership as a deterrent to further Russian aggression. Ukraine is the biggest post-Soviet state that is a democracy. It has its flaws. Still, we have free media in Ukraine. We have freedom of assembly. We have free elections. All these things are unimaginable in Russia and nobody in Ukraine or very few people in Ukraine would want to see these freedoms taken away from them. The question to her is really whether Ukrainian stands up to Russia alone

or with help. How can you sacrifice a country of 40 million people? Sending more defensive weapons to Ukraine is very important because Ukrainians understand there will be no boots on the ground from the Western countries, and they are ready to fight and defend their country on their own to risk their lives. But they would need support with some equipment and maybe radar systems and some defensive weapons. How do you react when people say telling Ukraine that they'll have to bend to Russia kind of ignores the ability of these Ukrainians

to decide their own future? I think that's absolutely correct. And we have to face that that's absolutely correct. And we have to face it. That's in fact what we're doing. In a perfect world, no country would be deprived of the right to determine its own future. But that's not true for states that border on great powers. It never has been true. It's not new. I think many of our listeners will know people who came to this country in 1957 after an uprising in Budapest in which there was a desire to change governments. The Soviet Union sent forces into Budapest and the West complained loudly and did nothing.

forces into Budapest, and the West complained loudly and did nothing. The journalist in Ukraine was saying, was in principle here, we're going to make a powerful normative argument that every state should be free to determine its own future. That's a laudable argument, but in practice, facing the realities on the ground, many states are deprived of that right. And Ukraine President Zelensky and U.S. President Biden are going to be talking on the phone on the same day this episode comes out on Thursday. Yes. What do you think they'll say to each other? I would be very surprised if President Biden is not cautioning President Zelensky to be very careful right now to avoid any provocation. And in fact, if you look at what Ukrainian forces, armed forces are doing on the ground right now, they are doing just that.

There is artillery fire every night between forces in the Donbass region over the border into Ukraine. And the Ukrainian army is not firing back other than very episodically because it does not want to give President Putin the pretext and enable him to say there is armed fighting and therefore I'm sending my soldiers across the border. So in fact, that message which will come from Biden is something

that Zelensky is already doing. I think there's no need for President Biden to tell President Zelensky that Western troops will not be forthcoming in the event of an invasion. He knows that already. And so the discussion may be about the additional military equipment. And they are a tougher bunch now than they were in 2014 when they were totally surprised by the Russian forces, could not put up much of a fight. This would be a much tougher resistance, but ultimately, if President Putin deploys 150,000 forces, it's an asymmetrical fight. Janice, this is an incredibly complex story with a lot of history behind it. And I think you've done an excellent job at breaking it all down and helping us understand it. So thank you so much for your time today. It's really a pleasure to be with you.

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