Front Burner - Election changes little, Liberal minority continues

Episode Date: September 21, 2021

After a day of voting and with some ballots still left to be counted, Justin Trudeau will remain Canada's prime minister, and the Liberals will continue ruling with a minority. CBC's Aaron Wherry breaks down the results of the election so far.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Jamie Poisson. So Justin Trudeau will remain Prime Minister, and he will keep a liberal minority government. You are sending us back to work with a clear mandate to get Canada through this pandemic and to the brighter days ahead.

And my friends, that's exactly what we are ready to do. In fact, as we record this around midnight, things are looking a whole lot like they did five weeks ago, before this election was even called. We don't have a definitive count yet of whether the Liberals have a stronger or weaker minority. That's because of the pandemic, long lines at polling stations, and nearly a million mail-in votes still to be counted. But it is a minority either way. Here to walk us through the results so far is Aaron Wary with the Parliamentary Bureau. Hey, Aaron. Thank you very much for making the time.

Anytime. All right. So as I mentioned, it's a bit after midnight now, and you are at Liberal headquarters. So with this victory, what's the vibe there tonight? When CBC called a Liberal win at like 10.30, I think it was, they just showed an image of an empty room with no balloons, no celebration. It felt a little, I don't know, symbolic, maybe.

I think it was a good image. Look, a lot of times with these things, the people don't show up until late. And I think a lot of us were prepared for a very long night and maybe into tomorrow for a result. So I think there was a bit of surprise that this came as quickly as it did in terms of an election call, that it was this clear from the start. I think, you know, Liberals were cautiously optimistic coming into tonight. There was a sense that they were going to come out of this with the most seats. But I think given where this campaign was two or three weeks ago, I suspect there's lots of relief that it's quite as good as it is. seats uh but i think given where they this campaign was two or three weeks ago i suspect

there's uh lots of relief that it's quite as good as it is but just to push back on that a little bit like i i guess i understand your point that that it's better than what they thought two or three weeks ago but but still you know when they called this election you know you have to imagine it wasn't because they they thought that they were going to come out of this doing about the same. So so like, are they talking about that at all tonight? Yeah, it is. That's, that's exactly the right point to make. This is, this is not what a lot of people, especially in our business, but I think also in the Liberal Party, thought they were going to get out of this election. And you don't call an election when you're in a minority situation unless you think you're going to get a majority out of it.

So I think there's probably a bit of disappointment in Liberal ranks about that. I don't know that they necessarily see this as a huge failure. I think they're probably, as I said earlier, like just a sense of relief that they got through this. But I think in the days ahead, they're going to have a harder time sort of making the case that this election was necessary or that this election result was decisive. Because at this point, as the numbers look right now, it looks like they're going back to the same House of Commons that they had, you know, a month ago. Yeah. And on that note, like, if you're a voter waking up this morning, right, and you look at this, and you say, this is where we were five

weeks ago. And you ask yourself the question, what actually happened over the course of this campaign? What on earth was this all about? Like, is there an answer to that? I don't know that there is a tidy answer to that question. You know, look, in an election, there are always agendas and platforms put before people and they have to make choices. And so the Liberals can look at this and say, we put childcare on the table, we put climate change, we put vaccine mandates out there, and the public has said, essentially, has said yes to those things.

I see Canadians standing together, together in your determination to end this pandemic, together for real climate action. For $10 a day childcare. For homes that are in reach for middle class families. For our shared journey on the path of reconciliation. As Canadians, you've elected parliamentarians to deliver on all this, and our team, our government, is ready.

You know, it's a qualified yes, but it's a yes. And so they can say, we now have a mandate to go and do those things. Now, the flip side of that is, did you really need to have an election to have a mandate to do those things? And from a political standpoint, I think it's fair to say that a prime minister only has so many elections. With each election, it gets a bit harder. And each time you go out in front of the public, it's that much harder to sort of be heard and to test the public's patience. And so for Trudeau, he has used one of his opportunities, and it hasn't led to a stronger grip on Parliament. And I think that is, there will be lots of second guessing about whether this was necessarily the moment to use it, or whether the Liberals ran a good enough campaign with this opportunity.

Is anybody happy looking at these results? I mean, like, did any party really get what they wanted here? I don't think so, no. You know, if you're the Liberals, you wanted a majority. If you're the Conservatives, you wanted to come out of this with a plurality of seats. If you're the Bloc or the NDP, you wanted a big breakthrough. And so there's now, I think, going to be a bit of a contest within each party to sort of try to claim a gain here or an affirmation. And, you know, Trudeau is going to say, look, once again, the public voted for the most liberals. And so therefore, this looks good for us. Aaron O'Toole will say, look, it looked like the liberals were going to win a majority going into this. We held them to a minority. So this is a good campaign for me. And NDP leader

Jagmeet Singh willh will say whoa we picked up seats we have a slightly stronger hand in parliament so obviously the public likes what we're selling but i don't i don't think any of those leaders are going to have a very easy ride of trying to explain why they came out how this election sort of turned out okay for them i want to dig into to what happened with the other parties a little bit more with you. But first, I just want to be clear, before we go much further into results, it's probably worth noting here that because this is a pandemic election with all the complications and changes that come with that,

there were a lot more mail-in ballots we're expecting to see counted tomorrow. And we also saw some really long lines. So in fact, actually, some people were still lined up when the projections were being made. What impact might that have on when we're going to get sort of the final numbers here, you think? So I think you're going to see some ridings flip in the next day or two as those mail-in ballots get counted as the last ballots from Monday come in, you know, after we're talking right now. I don't know that the result is going to shift profoundly. I don't think it's going to change who the government is. But there are some writings out there that are going to flip in the next 24, 48 hours. Okay. And then let's go back now to the major

parties and the Conservatives. They will continue to be the official opposition here. Tonight, I spoke to Mr. Trudeau. I congratulated him on a hard-won campaign. ...this country and the well-being of its people first. And I told him, if he thinks he can threaten Canadians with another election in 18 months, the Conservative Party will be ready. And whenever that day comes, I will be ready to lead Canada's Conservatives to victory. Thank you, Canada. Let's get to work. Talk to me about what you saw happen with them.

Talk to me about what you saw happen with them. So, I mean, I think it'll be interesting to see how Aaron O'Toole plays this kind of going forward in terms of he ran sort of to the right during the leadership race. Then he presented himself as a moderate during the general election. And so how does the party react to that? Does the party say, oh, you know, Aaron O'Toole held his own in this election and maybe with another election he'd break through? Or do they say, look, Aaron O'Toole's pivot to to being a moderate didn't work. And so now we need to go right back. We need to figure something else out and we need to try a completely different tact. And it's very hard to know exactly where the party is going to go on that discussion. It's a constant, you know, age-old discussion with that party. And it'll be very interesting to see where it goes as soon as this week.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization. Empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. and industry connections. I saw a typo, 50%. That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. The NDP, you mentioned they've picked up a few seats.

So will this change the dynamic they bring to a minority government? Like, have they strengthened their sway here, you think? Yeah, you know, I think they're going to come out and say, look, the public likes what we did during the last two years during the pandemic. They liked that we were there to hold the Liberals to account. I think the question for the NDP is, do they have to do something different to make a bigger leap? And I want to thank Canadians for voting.

And I want to let Canadians know that you can count on New Democrats to continue fighting for you. As we fought for you in the pandemic, when times were difficult, when people were struggling, when people were worried about their future, we were there for you. We fought to make sure people got more help. We fought to increase the CERB. We fought to increase the wage subsidy. We saved millions of jobs and we helped millions of Canadians stay at home. We are going to continue fighting for you

just the same way we fought for you in the pandemic. You can count on us to continue those fights. You know, it's funny to think of the NDP in the last six years, where, you know, Tom Mulcair won 44 seats in 2015, and that was considered a huge, grievous setback. And then Jagmeet Singh went out and won fewer seats in 2019, but people felt okay about that because their expectations had been rock bottom going into the election. And now they've gained a few more seats, but they're still not back to the 44 they had in 2015.

So it will be interesting to see whether the NDP takes the lesson from this campaign that they're building something with saying that they're building up. They're moving in the right direction. they are building to the kind of breakthrough they got under Jack Layton, or whether they say, okay, we've got something here, but we need to kind of recalibrate it a bit to try to make a leap from being the third or fourth party. Right, right. And as of right now, they are currently sitting in fourth party status, that the block is a couple of seats ahead of them, leading in a couple of seats ahead of them. And where does the block stand right now? How are they coming out of all of this? I made a statement on this election evening, and I was greeted by a prime minister who decided to call an election.

to call an election, and two years ago, and now, two years later, we're still in a pandemic with the same minority government, and it is tempting to say, so no losers, no winners, which is certainly a harsh judgment on the part of the people who may say to themselves tomorrow morning, what is this all about? Why did they interrupt my barbecue? So the big question with the bloc will be, and this is maybe where the Liberals lost their majority, there's a belief certainly in Liberal circles, I think, that that's where they lost their majority,

was that coming out of the English leaders' debate, there is a controversy about the moderator's question about Bill 21. And the Bloc capitalizes on that and turns it into something. And so it's hard to read the Bloc result and know whether they got a bump just because of that sort of circumstance, or whether they have sort of regained a foothold in Quebec politics. Because after 2011 and 2015, it looked like that party was kind of on the ropes and now they're back a bit. And so is that sort of just circumstance because of this odd sequence of events or are they kind of back for the long haul now? Right, right. And just to remind our listeners about that controversy, I believe it was a question which

essentially called Bill 21, which prevents public servants from wearing religious symbols, called it discriminatory as fact. You deny that Quebec has problems with racism, yet you defend legislation such as Bills 96 and 21, which marginalize religious minorities, anglophones, and allophones. Quebec is recognized as a distinct society, but for those outside the province, please help them understand why your party also supports these discriminatory laws. The question seems to imply the answer you want. Those laws are not about discrimination. They are about the values of Quebec.

And yet, and yet... And it basically gave the bloc this window to, you know, say, like, look, this is English Canada butting into our affairs, like meddling in our affairs, which, you know, arguably may have given them more support in Quebec. I think one important development to talk about is the Green Party and its leader, Annemie Paul, who did not have the night that she was hoping for.

She was not able to secure a seat in Toronto Centre. And what happened there? First, let me start by congratulating. We're still waiting for the results, but it looks like we are going to be sending certainly two and looks like probably three Greens back to Ottawa in the next session of Parliament. Yeah, this is kind of a tale of woe for them over the last two elections. To go back a bit further to 2019, there was a lot of talk at the start of that election that that was going to be their big breakthrough. And then they stumbled and didn't meet expectations. And then Anna Mee

Paul comes in, obviously has a very difficult time of it as the leader with, you know, lots of backbiting and and feuding within the party and she sort of stakes it all on running in toronto center which is a like a liberal stronghold it's not really a riding you would expect her to win she obviously didn't win it and that he probably i mean you would have to think at this point that that spells the end of her leadership without a seat in parliament and after everything else that she and the party have gone through. And that puts the Green Party back to square one. It's really not clear where they go from here. Right, right. And Marcy Ian, the Liberalier, the leader of the PPC, did not win back the

Beauce. He did not win his seat. No, he didn't. And that was kind of always actually considered a bit of a long shot, just because the People's Party didn't have a huge amount of support in Quebec. And I think the big question with them now is, do you view their result in this election as something specific to the pandemic that probably won't be replicated two years, four years from now? Or do you think they've tapped into something and created a brand that might appeal more broadly? And that's a question particularly, I mean, that's a question for the entire Canadian political system, but that's also a question for the Conservatives, whether they think this is a new threat on their right or whether they think

the People's Party will sort of go away again. I wonder, Aaron, you talked earlier about how each party would probably try and spin this into a victory for themselves. But if you were a member or in the leadership of any of these parties, what kind of introspection do you think these results might actually provoke here from the people in power? So if you're a liberal, if you're a conservative, if you're an NDP, what are the actual big tough questions you're going to be asking about your party and its leader? So I think there's one broad thing, and that is, have we reached a point where minority parliaments are going to be the rule rather than the exception. Has the political field gotten competitive enough that you're always going to have four

parties with significant representation in the House, plus some other parties kind of siphoning off votes here and there, that the possibility of a party breaking, you know, 40, 45 percent of the vote and winning a commanding majority and doing that two, three times in a row, whether those days are just sort of over and whether you need to kind of adjust how you do politics because of that. So that's, I think, the overall thing. I think the next biggest one is for Trudeau, and that is, how do you read these results and what do you want to do with the one or two years, maybe three years that you've bought yourself after this election?

You know, it's presumably the opposition parties, the Conservatives, the NDP, having spent the last five weeks talking about how this election was unnecessary, aren't going to be in a position to really very quickly turn around and say, oh, it's time for another election. And I suspect the Canadian public doesn't want another election anytime soon. But does Trudeau now view this as kind of a couple years to cement his legacy? And then does he start looking about maybe moving on and going into succession? Or does he really think he can run in another election and try to win another majority? I think, to me, this is an interesting of the Trudeau time in office just because

he doesn't have another majority. We may, you know, he may have used up one of his precious opportunities to try to secure that majority. And does he really want to, you know, go for another two or four years and maybe go through another election or kind of is three election victories, which in itself is pretty rare. Is that sort of enough? You know, one last question before we go, and I know it's kind of retreading ground that we already have tread, but I just keep asking myself, like, how did we pretty much end up exactly where we started here? Like, what are the voters supposed to be feeling this morning about what all of this was for? So I think that's a fair question to ask. And I think, you know, there is a slight precedent for this.

In 1965, Lester B. Pearson went for a majority called a snap election, and the voters returned almost the exact same result as they had in 1963. So we've been through this before to some extent. I think a couple things. One is no election is pointless and no election is without consequences. But I think the Canadian public sort of returning the almost exactly the same result sort of sends a message that at this very moment, they were maybe happy with the way Parliament was before, and they really weren't interested in hearing from the political parties for a little bit longer.

They kind of just wanted everybody to work and get things done and advance the country. They maybe didn't disagree wholeheartedly with what the Liberals were doing. I guess the Liberals can look at that and say that that's a bit of a victory. But I think overall, the public was in a mood after the last two years to just have the parliament working. And they weren't particularly interested in having another election. And that's the parliament we had six weeks ago has effectively been told to get back to work. OK, OK. Well, on that Lester B. Pearson historical example. Thank you. Great note to end on. Thank you very much, Aaron.

No worries. Thanks. All right, that is all for today. We'll bring you more on what the results are and analysis on what it means tomorrow.