Front Burner - Election speculation grips Ottawa

Episode Date: March 12, 2021

Speculation in Ottawa that the Liberals are plotting the next federal election has us asking what the major parties stand to gain, and lose, from a spring or fall vote. CBC’s Power and Politics host Vassy Kapelos reports.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, it is Friday, although what are days anymore? I'm Jamie Poisson, and I am here now with a very good friend of FrontBurner, the host of CBC's Power and Politics, Vashie Capellos. Hey, Vashie, how's it going?

Hi, Jamie. Good, thanks. It's great to have you here. So I know that you're here today to bring us the latest from Ottawa, of course, and we're going to talk about the possibility of the next federal election, which is a pretty evergreen question in a minority government, but very much so right now. And Vashi, as COVID vaccines start to roll out across the country, there's a lot of speculation that one is coming soon. And what are you hearing? Yeah, I feel like every time the pandemic appears to be subsiding a little bit, like the spread of cases, etc, etc, all of a sudden that election fever takes hold again. So I don't know

if it's necessarily unique to this moment in time, because we kind of had a bit of that prior to Christmas as well. But then once things got a lot worse after Christmas, everyone was like, no, the vaccines are in trouble. You know, it's not going to happen. There's no way. I think that's still the more predominant feeling that, like, until we know that people are concretely all vaccinated or to a large degree vaccinated. It doesn't seem super likely that any party is heading to the polls. But certainly as that supply has ticked up in the past few weeks, so has the speculation that it is, as those days go by, a little bit more of a possibility that it could happen as early as the spring. Right. The goalposts for vaccination is like end of June for a lot of provinces beginning of July. So this is coming up pretty quickly. And I know Conservative leader

Aaron O'Toole, he certainly seems to be suggesting that he thinks that the Liberals are up to something, are planning something. He's tweeting this week that he's disappointed Justin Trudeau is considering an election, right? Yeah. And he's not the only one. There's actually all week, it's been quite a bit of back and forth. All parties are accusing the other of playing tricks in the House of Commons with legislation, either prolonging it or introducing it without consultation. And everybody's saying the motivation for doing that, like ascribing the motivation to each other,

as being about somehow setting the stage for an election. We should be focused on vaccines, not on votes. We need to turn the corner in COVID-19. And the only thing we'll do that is vaccines in the arms of Canadians. So I want the government to succeed. And there should be no election until we have those vaccines deployed and we can start reopening. And then everybody's saying the other guy's doing it.

And it's bad that they're doing it. But then the reverse is kind of being lodged at them, too. So again, that lends me to think like there is more talk around the possibility of an election. It's still gamesmanship to a certain degree at this point politically, but it can very quickly change. I think it's irresponsible to say that an election would be irresponsible. Our country and our institutions are stronger than that. And if there has to be an election, we'll figure it out. I don't think that's what Canadians want. I don't think that's what opposition parties want. It's certainly not what the government wants. What we want to be able to do is focus. And I want to talk with you in a few minutes about the opposition parties more and

where they're coming from. But let's talk about the Liberals first. And what are they weighing here? Let's do the pros first, I guess. Like, why would they want an election relatively soon? So right now, they are doing well in public opinion polling. I think that's one of the main reasons. I mean, internal polling as well from everybody I've spoken to, Eric Grenier's poll tracker, they're sitting at about 34.9%. The Conservatives are sitting at about 29.7%. And there has been a lot of public opinion polling over the past few weeks that show that the Liberals did see a little bit of a rebound from the hit they took from vaccines. So I think they're looking at that. They're looking at the potential for supply. Like this week, we found out that there should be enough first shots for every Canadian by July, I think, as you already mentioned. So they're looking at that scenario. And I think the vaccines were going to be the biggest determinant of how good a shot they had. Not to sound corny, but how good a shot they had. No pun intended. Yeah, no pun intended, but so intended in the election.

So it appears at this point to be kind of under control. That's not to say that it can't go out of control, but as you like get closer and closer and it seems like the supply is really coming in, I think that removes that part of it from the equation and allows them to go ahead. And there's some interesting, like even if you parse apart a lot of the polling that's being done, the one that really jumped out at me

earlier this week was one done by Nanos for Bloomberg. And it showed that I think it was like 33% support for the liberals, over 24% for the conservatives when it comes to which party is best suited to manage the fiscal part of things, so manage the economy here in Canada. And the reason that jumped out at me is because generally when you poll Canadians on issues, even if they're not voting for the Conservatives, they have a view of the Conservatives as kind of a better manager of public purse strings. So to see that reversal even prior to a budget,

prior to them laying out what their fiscal vision is, kind of stuck out to me. Now it's one poll, so I don't read like the world into it. But certainly there seems to be a bit of momentum in the Liberals. And the main calculation that they're going to be making is, okay, where's the pandemic? Can we hold an election and not jeopardize people's health? Hopefully everybody is thinking that. And where do we stand going into it? Like, do we have the prospect of winning a majority? So speaking of the budget for a second, you know, obviously we have not had one in two years,

but I know that it's coming soon, right? We're expecting it in the next month or so, apparently. And so how could the budget play into an election call? Well, it might be it might even be later, I should say, than a month because they were saying earlier this week, it probably won't be in March and probably won't be beginning of April. So some keeps moving, right? Yeah, keeps. But it also... So look, I think this is going to be one of the most... First of all, hasn't happened in two years. That's a big deal. Second of all, it's going to be a huge, almost like the first piece of the Liberals election platform, whenever that election is, whether it's this spring, this fall, or later. This will essentially lay out for Canadians how

bad the pandemic has been, what the finances of the country are, and then how the Liberals plan to see through an economic recovery and any economic growth. And there will be a lot of points within that that other parties can differentiate themselves from the Liberals on. It's also supposed to include stimulus, for example, and how that might lend itself to an economic recovery. So from, I think, like a pragmatic point of view, it's an extremely important document. If people want to know like what the Liberals specifically will be doing politically, it's also very key because it allows the Liberals, let's say they lay out a very intricate, detailed spending plan when it comes to stimulus. It allows the Liberals to

say, okay, almost dare other parties, okay, now run against that. Tell Canadians you're not going to spend money to grow the economy and see how that goes over. So it becomes a really important political document too. Right, right. Do you also think it's possible that that document could freak people out? Like if they feel like the Liberals are spending too much money? We're sitting on what, like $1.6 trillion debt by the end of this year? Yeah, I think it's totally possible. I mean, it's very dependent, I think, on the context, right? Like, I don't think a huge amount of Canadians in the middle of the first wave of the pandemic were too worried about the debt that was being accumulated by the federal government providing supports to individuals who had lost their jobs or who had

to stay home because they were sick, right? But then maybe now when those supports are not as needed or in three or four months when the vaccines have rolled out and those supports are really, really less needed, then Canadians might or some Canadians might take a different kind of lens to analyze that debt load through. And so it might end up factoring a bit more into how certain Canadians view it. It's just, it's hard to determine because I think it really depends what's happening with COVID and the greater context around it. I'm going to go. organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household

income? That's not a typo. 50%. That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. I want to talk to you about some scandals that this government is facing and whether or not you think they're going to hurt them in a possible upcoming election. So the Liberals are dealing with the fallout still from the We Charity controversy.

There's an ongoing ethics committee investigation. about a very old problem, allegations that the government and specifically the defense minister mishandled sexual misconduct claims against the military's former top soldier. And do you think either of these scandals are going to be a real problem for them? Well, I'll answer your question in two parts. And the first is on we, I think it depends what comes of the testimony. I think it depends, again, I think we've talked about it before, like if there's new information that incriminates the government in some way, which hasn't been the case for a number of months. In this situation, there was a communications

challenge. There was an optics challenge. There was no conflict of interest here. There was absolutely no conflict. Ethically, it wasn't. It didn't look, it wasn't appropriate. It doesn't look good. I agree. And that's what I admitted here. Because yes, there are connections. But there was no conflict here. There was no profiting from this situation. They took their hit on we certainly. But again, they've bounced back. So that's a possibility. But I think a more remote one. On the issue with the military, here's my sort of two-parter to you. The first is the military has never been a huge determinant for voters. And I'm talking more from a procurement perspective. Like, we've had huge scandals in this country. Billions of dollars wasted. Billions of dollars that could have gone to health care and a whole host of other things wasted because of procurement issues. And that falls on many governments. And it's never really, at the end of the day, been something that Canadians walked into the polls and said, like, I'm going to really hold them to account over this. This is obviously a very different

controversy. And I think it calls into question, certainly, a lot of the values that this government has put forward, specifically around being a feminist government, specifically around advocating for victims of sexual misconduct. And I think those questions will persist, certainly. But I was having a conversation yesterday with some people who work around the Minister of Defense, and their feeling was, oh, you know what, people are losing interest. I think this one, we're already putting it behind us, if you can believe it. So I don't think... That's an interesting take. Yeah. So internally, I mean, look, there's always more that could come out. And I don't know the

full extent of what might. But I think internally, they're not perceiving it as something that would factor in a significant way to their calculation when it comes to an election or the potential. It's interesting to hear you say that, because from my perspective, where I'm sitting, it does seem like more is certainly coming out earlier this week, I think it was about how the head of HR has also been accused of sexual misconduct. And then also this week, the Prime Minister admitted that his office knew that there was a complaint against General Vance, the head of the military. And you know, 2018, this was the height of the Me Too movement. So there certainly does seem to be new revelations. Yeah, and the key is really, I mean, they had said previously that

they just learned of that through Global News' initial reporting on it. And then you're right, the prime minister in question period said, okay, I, yes, my office knew there was a complaint, but we didn't know the details of it. And so, you know, whether or not Canadians are paying that close attention to those kinds of details is the question. I think, for me, like the bigger thing is, ultimately, does this become about the government itself, right? Or is this, do Canadians kind of say, okay, this is a problem in the military. It needs to be fixed. Yes, the government should have done more to fix it in the last six years. But ultimately, this is a cultural thing that's going to take some time to amend. Minister having greater knowledge that the people that they either kept in the most senior roles in

the military or appointed to were engaging in allegedly really not good behavior and still kept them in those positions. And sort of as the opposition characterizes it, turned a blind eye. If there's more information to that effect, or if that ends up being a conclusion that Canadians reach based on the evidence in front of them, then it has a lot of potential power to do some damage. But if they don't get to that point, it becomes hard for the government to wear completely. There's no question about that. Every woman and man who serves in our armed forces deserves to work in a safe environment and have the resources and the support if they have allegations or experienced unwanted behaviors. But it is not true what the member says that we haven't done anything. Right. Do you think the allegations that are out there right now that the Minister

of Defense was presented with this evidence and he looked away and didn't want to see it, And he looked away and didn't want to see it. Do you think that that is resonating with people? I'm not 100% sure. I think to a certain degree it is. I think the defense that he's employed, which is, well, the complainant didn't want to come forward, so I shouldn't have involved myself because that would have politicized the process. because that would have politicized the process. I'm not sure that that defense necessarily wins a lot of people over who are worried that a blind eye was turned. I just don't know at this point if it's at the level where

every Canadian is paying super close attention to it. I think it's something people should pay attention to, but people are still pretty worried about the variants and the vaccines. So everything is sort of within that context i have committed that i will not trigger an election while we are fighting this pandemic will the prime minister commit today in this chamber that he will not call an election while we are fighting this pandemic yes or no right honorable prime minister mr speaker we know well that in a minority parliament uh the government doesn't have the sole power to decide when we go into an election the opposition members have a role to play both in providing confidence for the house

but also by being able to function all right so So let's talk a little bit more about the election more generally. The opposition party's NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has also said that he doesn't want to call an election, which is really not surprising since the party just paid back $7.7 million of debt that was left over from past election campaigns. So where do they fit into this whole thing? I'll be honest, I'm a bit confused about where they do. I also interviewed Mr. Singh this week on this very subject. And essentially what he's saying is he believes the prime minister wants an election. He doesn't want to do anything to trigger one. So if we deduce from that that it means the NDP basically supports the Liberals

on matters of confidence, so think the budget, for example, or whatever other vote turns into a confidence vote, then we can imply from that that the NDP plans to support the Liberals on big stuff. And I kind of tried to get at it with Mr. Singh. So first of all, it's not accurate completely to say that the prime minister has said he wants an election. He said the opposite, but he has never unequivocally said, I won't do anything to make one happen. And Mr. Singh has asked him pointedly in the House of Commons. But I don't think you can deduce from that, just because he hasn't said, I'm not going to do whatever it takes, that, oh, that means that he wants one and he's going to have one. That's the NDP's position. And as a result,

they're pushing very hard to say, no, we shouldn't be doing it during a pandemic. Now, they say they're actually ready. They've actually dropped some pieces of their platform. They've paid off that money. They say they insist they're ready to go. I think there's a whole other discussion we could have about that. But they have certainly positioned themselves in a certain way. And I just wonder what that means for the next few months. Like, I asked him, does it take away your leverage? Because the NDP has ultimately supported the government and gotten some wins out of that, like kind of in exchange. Doesn't it take away that leverage when you're saying we're never going to do anything to make sure that you don't fall? He contended it did not. But whether it keeps that going and Mr. Singh said until everyone's vaccinated, that's when he sees the possibility of an election as OK.

You know, it's a big question mark to me. That's that's a lot of time where you're kind of pigeonholing yourself. OK, now let's talk about the bloc of the quad. Where does leader Yves-Francois Blanchet stand on the prospect of a soonish election? The bloc is pretty ready for an election. Financially, they did quite well when it comes to fundraising. But he's predicated his support for a lot of confidence votes in the future on health care transfers increasing. And the government has not signaled that's happening anytime soon, for example, in the budget. So I think there's a question mark. He also doesn't, I don't think, wants an election. He's criticized the Conservatives for some of the tactics

that they've employed in the House of Commons recently. But I don't think that he's going to necessarily support the Liberals ad nauseum, no matter what, to avoid one. Our point is that as one important voice for Quebec, As one important voice for Quebec, we observed that this government might not be worthy of our trust anymore. Now let's talk about the Conservatives. So, you know, as you mentioned before, they are trailing the Liberals by about five points. And they've also lost ground in Western Canada, including the Atlantic provinces. They've made no headway in Ontario.

And Vashi, why? Why do you think this is the case? It's a bit perplexing only because there seemed to be some momentum. And I remember talking about this with you when Aaron O'Toole won the leadership. He was conducting himself during press conferences in a way that immediately contrasted him with his predecessor, Andrew Scheer. But you're right to point out, and our colleague Eric again has done some interesting analysis on this, that unlike most people when they assume leaderships, Mr. O'Toole has not seen a bump

in either his own personal popularity in public opinion polling or the parties. I'm Aaron O'Toole. If you don't know me, I'm the leader of Canada's Conservatives. And right now it's my mission to get our economy back on track. To find out more about me, visit aaronotoole.ca. But for now, it's great to meet you. All right, back on track. To find out more about me, visit ErinOToole.ca. But for now,

it's great to meet you. All right, back to work. And especially in areas where they need to grow, they've seen a bit of a bump in Quebec, but as you point out in Ontario, not so much. And Mr. O'Toole is from Ontario. He's really emphasized, or at least through rhetoric, talked about moving the party more to the center and appealing to more people. Like it was a central focus of all his initial speeches, right? Appealing to more people, a wider swath of people. Everybody should look in the mirror and be able to say that they could vote for the Conservatives. Doesn't look like people who are, you know, who haven't already done that are entertaining that option right now. And even his own personal popularity numbers, like the negatives are pretty high for someone this

stage into things like Eric's analysis showed that Andrew Scheer at this stage of his leadership had seen a bump in from when he started until now, I think it's right 200 day mark, right? And Aaron O'Toole has not seen that. So it presents a really big challenge for the party. I mean, I think part of it is the pandemic. I think incumbent governments right across the country at the provincial level have really exemplified for us that Canadians are kind of clinging to their governments and looking to them during the pandemic. It's hard for the opposition to find ground. Right. I mean, I would guess there is, if I could guess, I would say that there's probably been no other time in history that this many Canadians have been so dependent on their governments, particularly the federal government who's been doling out, you know, CERB and other sort of subsidies. Yeah, I really agree with that. And I think that as a result, you know, incumbent governments right across the country, even though they go to elections and they say, why are you going to an election? This is terrible. At the end of the day, when the voters go into the booth to cast their ballot or send their ballot in by mail, they're choosing the government that got them through the pandemic to this point. And so as a result, it's been like if I could put it in a basic, it's just been hard for O'Toole to punch through.

Although the conservatives say that their own internal polling shows things are closer than the public opinion we're privy to. Right. Worth noting. Yeah, that's what they're saying right now. Right. OK. And I feel like this is something that we're probably going to be talking about more very

soon because there is a conservative party policy convention coming up like next week, I think, right? Vashi, I know you hate it when I make you make predictions. I'm sorry. Please don't cancel our friendship. I make you do this every time we have these conversations. So this time will be no different. What is your bet? When are we headed to the polls? It's fine. I can wager it because i'll be on matley so i won't even be able to know how wrong i was yes and sidebar uh for our listeners very big congratulations thank you that you have a baby on the way thank you um i i still think it won't be until the fall i i still think things are too dicey right now i think that it's vaccines

aren't a guarantee. Even if the supply comes in and the feds do their job, there's so many question marks about whether the provinces will be able to administer them. I just think the pandemic is too fluid. That's my gut feeling, which is not, as I've always said, 99.9% always wrong. So I could be wrong, but I think the fall is more likely. All right. Vashi Kapelis, thank you very much. Thanks, Jamie.

All right. That is all for this week. Front Burner is brought to you by CBC News and CBC Podcasts. The show was produced this week by Allie Janes, Evian Abdagir, Shannon Higgins, and Imogen Podcasts. The show was produced this week by Ali Janes, Evian Abdigir, Shannon Higgins, and Imogen Burchard. Our sound design was by Derek Vanderwyk and Mackenzie Cameron.

Our music is by Joseph Shebison of Boombox Sound. The executive producer of Front Burner is Nick McKay-Blocos, and I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening.

We'll talk to you on Monday. For more CBC Podcasts, Talk to you on Monday.