Front Burner - Erin O’Toole elected next Conservative Party leader

Episode Date: August 24, 2020

Erin O’Toole was elected as the next leader of the Conservative Party of Canada in the early morning, on the third ballot. O’Toole’s victory wraps up an unprecedented race. But despite the obstacles presented by campaigning in a global pandemic, Conservatives participated in record numbers. Today on Front Burner, Power and Politics host Vassy Kapelos on O’Toole’s win and what it means for the future of the party.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. To the millions of Canadians that are still up, that I'm meeting tonight for the first time, good morning. I'm Aaron O'Toole. You're going to be seeing and hearing a lot from me in the coming weeks and months, but I want you to know from the start that I'm here to fight for you and your

family. Last night, after hours of technical delays and three rounds of voting, Aaron O'Toole was elected the new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada. O'Toole's victory wraps up an unprecedented race. But despite the obstacles of campaigning in a pandemic, Conservatives participated in record numbers. Today, Power and Politics host Vashie Capellos is back with us to talk about Erin O'Toole's win and what it means for the party and the next election. I'm Josh Bloch, and this is FrontBurner. Hi, Vashie. Thanks for coming back so soon for another late night discussion.

Nothing I'd rather be doing. Thanks for having me. It's 2 a.m. after 2 a.m. right now. This night did not go as planned. Part of it was that the results were really delayed. They only came in at around 1 a.m. because the machines that were tallying these ballots were like literally ripping up the ballots or some amount of them in half. And so, you know, it took till 1 a.m. to announce that Aaron O'Toole is the new leader of the Conservative Party. The results for the final test, Mr. McKay, 14,528 points. Mr. O'Toole, 19,271 points. Aaron O'Toole is the new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada. Congratulations, Mr. O'Toole. The first idea being that all these delays, it was crazy what was going on.

Essentially, the problem really quickly, if I could summarize, and it was good. I had somebody who was actually involved in it who was messaging me saying, here's what actually happened. But basically, the ballots were in envelopes, and there was a process to get the envelopes off. And when they were coming off, they actually ended up cutting thousands of ballots. So the ballots had to be put back together by hand, taped together, essentially, and there's like a barcode they had to match up. Then they would either be inputted again to be counted or they had to be redone by somebody. And of course, there had to be scrutineers looking through that from each of the campaigns as well as the party to make sure that they were accurate. So it took hours and hours and hours. The program was supposed to start at 6, and I don't even know what time it was. It was like 10, 30, 11, something like that, something crazy. It was incredibly delayed. And then also a surprise in the end that Erin O'Toole won.

Yeah, so what was your initial reaction when that result came down? Look, the first result, Josh, that we got was on the first ballot. And already I was, I think, a bit surprised, especially when it came to Peter McKay's result. So everyone on his campaign had been saying, look, if we're over the 40% mark on the first ballot, this is ours for the taking at some point, maybe by the second or maybe the third ballot. But I think he was coming in around 33 point something. And Aaron O'Toole is at 31 point something. That is such a tiny margin of victory on that first ballot for Peter McKay that immediately I knew he was in trouble.

And that momentum likely would be with O'Toole because of where how well Lesley Lewis, for example, had performed. And so it's a ranked ballot. It's kind of complicated. But yeah, I was surprised. I was mostly I wasn't as surprised to see Aaron O'Toole doing well as I was to see Peter McKay doing so badly. On this national ballot in English, Mr. McKay, 11,328 votes. Mr. O'Toole, 10,328 votes. Mr. O'Toole, 10,681 votes. Take a look at these numbers. This is not as strong a performance as Peter McKay would have liked to see. Right. I mean, I think a lot of people expected Peter McKay would win. He was best known. He was the biggest fundraiser. He had the most endorsements.

And yet he didn't come out on top. Yeah, I think that's a really accurate way to portray it. Like, I think that if you were to go outside just the Conservative Party and ask Canadians who they knew among the four people who were running for this job, immediately Peter McKay would come out probably like leaps and bounds ahead of everyone else. He had the name recognition. He's been around Ottawa for a long time. He's well known as a conservative, pretty much right across the country.

Peter McKay, 1,008. February 97, his nomination against three other candidates would be his toughest fight. He won the seat in the June election that year by more than 5,000 votes. And he took to parliament as if he'd been born for the job. And so from the outset he was often characterized as the front runner. You know fundraising money backed that up. Caucus support. He had tons of MPs from the Conservative Party who were supporting

him. So like it was as if all signs were pointing to a Peter McKay win right from the start. So to see that kind of outcome right on the first ballot showed us, you know, immediately that things were not as they had seemed months ago. So remind us, who is Aaron O'Toole? So a couple of things to know about Aaron O'Toole. When I think about who he is, I think about my time here in Ottawa and when I've covered him. And primarily that has been in his capacity first under the Harper government, just kind of briefly towards the end as Minister of Veterans Affairs. And he took over that portfolio rather after a lot of controversy.

It was a really problematic file for the Harper government. So he took that over for a bit and then came the next election. And primarily then from that point in on, I've known him as the foreign affairs critic for the Conservative Party. So he's been very vocal, particularly on the issue, let's say, of China and this government's foreign policy towards China, the two Michaels who are detained there, that kind of thing. So I think most Canadians would be familiar with him to a certain degree in that capacity. We must send a signal that such conduct by the Chinese is unacceptable. What steps will the prime minister take to show that diplomatic hostage taking is unacceptable for a world power? There's a lot to know about him. I mean, he beyond his political career, he's married. He has two young-ish kids. I think they're 14 and 9. His father was in politics as well. He spent 12 years in the military. He became a lawyer after that for a decade.

which I think is also pretty significant. I'm sure we'll get into how that plays into some of the strategy of the party under him. But that's a quick sort of summary of who he is and what he brings to the table at this point. He pitched himself as a true blue conservative in contrast to liberal light, which is what he called Peter McKay. It's interesting, in past campaigns, he kind of positioned himself more as a moderate, as a middle of the road candidate. Do you think that that's partly why he was able to win this time around? So that was a big question for me going into this. Would that strategy work? Because I think though their policies were similar, the big distinction between Aaron O'Toole and Peter McKay was this quote unquote more progressive characterization versus what you outlined. Aaron O'Toole's sort of self-characterization as a true blue conservative, not liberal light as those other guys, as he kind of painted the Peter McKay campaign. And what tonight really underscored for me was that that strategy seems to have worked

from a strategic point of view. So Aaron O'Toole was able to procure the support of people who voted for Derek Sloan and Lesley Lewis as their first choice. The majority of them moved over to, you know, placed Aaron O'Toole higher up in their rankings and very few of them liked Leslyn Lewis, Derek Sloan and then Peter McKay. And at the end of the day, if you look at the progression through the ballots from first to second to third, what became what becomes really evident is that it is Sloan and Lewis's supporters who ultimately propel Aaron O'Toole to victory. So on the face of it, you know, I've just had a little while to crunch the numbers, but on the face of it, that looks to me like that true blue, quote-unquote true blue, I'm not liberal light message actually did resonate with a large chunk of conservative members

and ultimately helped Aaron O'Toole secure the win. Serving in government is about serving the people, not self-serving. That's what the Liberals do. It's time for a true blue leader to clean out Ottawa. The stink of corruption is getting pretty thick. Join me in this fight. Let's take back Canada. is getting pretty thick. Join me in this fight. Let's take back Canada. Well, Leslyn Lewis is another sort of remarkable story from this night, a social conservative,

a fiscal conservative. She got 20% of the vote on the first round. She came first place in Saskatchewan on the first ballot. In Saskatchewan, we have 1,400 points in play, and the results in alphabetical order are Lesley Lewis, 554 points. And then second place in several other provinces, including Alberta. And she was virtually unknown, you know, as a political figure before this race. What do you think accounts for that success?

I think that's a great question. And I think it'll be one of the big stories that emerges from this race. I'm glad you outlined some of the geographical areas in which Ms. Lewis, Dr. Lewis, was able to secure a win. And I think that what you outlined is what's really significant. So at the outset of this, if you, like I said, you walk down the street, most Canadians would have a sense of who Peter McKay was. I'm not sure they would have any idea who Lesley Lewis is. And something happened during the campaign. And from my discussions with people in her campaign, it mostly centered around the debates.

I think that we had actually talked, maybe, if I recall, after the last debate. around the debates. I think that we had actually talked maybe, if I recall, after the last debate. And what debates do for candidates that don't have the fundraising capacity or the exposure that frontrunners or more well-known candidates, what it does for them is provide them with equal footing for a little while under a national spotlight. And what Leslie Lewis was able to do from that point on was really sort of almost play on a different level. Canada is at a crossroads. If the Liberals win the next election, it will be decades before we can recover. I am the right leader with the right policies at the right time. And the fundraising numbers quickly amassed following those debates, in particular the one in English. And from everyone I spoke to in her campaign, that is what made the major difference. And all of a sudden, she had the money to bes of Alberta and Saskatchewan. So she won Saskatchewan,

as you said, Josh, which is a big deal. But she also came very close to Erin O'Toole in Alberta. Like she beat Peter McKay in Alberta. That's a pretty big deal for someone as well known as Peter McKay. And for her to kind of, quote unquote, score as high as she did in Alberta really says something. Well, another factor here is that Lewis and Sloan were endorsed by the Campaign Life Coalition, which is an anti-abortion political lobbying group. And that organization boasted that they recruited more than 26,000 members into the party this time around, which is about 10% of the total members. How was their organizing felt tonight? That's a good question. I mean, so I don't know if I can,

you know, if I know the direct link between the campaign and how that manifested, but I think we can draw some pretty general conclusions. And the first is that the quote unquote social conservative support was integral to the outcome of this election. And many of them came out. So right from the start, as you point out, Lesley Lewis did very well on the first ballot. And even Derek Sloan, though, because he was last, got kind of knocked off before the second one. Even he had a pretty high level of support. So for this whole discussion that went into this campaign and came out of the last one over what role do social conservatives play in the party, clearly there is a strong role for social conservatives in that party,

especially when you're talking about the election of the party's leader versus a general election, right? We've had so many conversations about what problems the last conservative party leader, Andrew Scheer, got into because of some of the views he espoused or the way in which he did or didn't talk about them, right? So I think it'll be dependent in this case on how Aaron O'Toole handles himself and what sorts of things he says. But on the face of it, I think what you can read into the high level of support for Derek Sloan and Lesley Lewis is the social conservative wing of the conservative party is alive and well. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here.

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I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. So, you know, to outsiders, this didn't look necessarily like a particularly thrilling and exciting race. There weren't celebrities like, you know, Kevin O'Leary this time around. There were just four candidates. But conservatives were actually hyper-engaged, and the party broke all kinds of records in terms of membership and turnout in the race. And over the last month, we succeeded in processing a record number of ballots

for a Canadian leadership race. 174,849 ballots were verified. Why do you think it is? Why do you think they were able to mobilize a huge number of new members? So the Conservatives are really good at organizing. They're really good at campaigns. They're really good at campaigns. They're really good at fundraising. And clearly, that was part of what factored into the success that you're talking about, and at least trying to

motivate people, I guess, to care and to get involved and ultimately to vote. I'm not sure if many conservatives two months ago, to be truthful with you, Josh, would have said, this is going to be a real barn burner of a race. Like I heard tons of apathy at the time. I think one thing that they also had going for them, though, as the time went on, I mean, two months ago, two and a half months ago, three months ago, we were kind of still in the really tough time of the pandemic. But as restrictions eased a bit and our attention shifted from not just COVID-19 to other priorities, other stories, whatever you want to call it. Clearly, members had the opportunity to take a breath and go, OK, is this something now that I should be paying attention to? And when they asked themselves that question, the answer, it appears, I mean, 175,000 of them cast a ballot was clearly yes.

175,000 of them cast a ballot was clearly yes. So how does Aaron O'Toole now take that energy and that momentum from the leadership race and move forward to lead the Conservative Party into the next election? Well, here's the big question that I have, and a bit of it was answered by his speech tonight. But he ran on this real anti-Justin Trudeau, anti-liberal, very, you know, I'm a true blue conservative, as you pointed out, message. Unlike Justin Trudeau, my birth was not covered in Maclean's magazine. Our wedding in Halifax didn't make the cover of Chatelaine. But you know what? Neither did yours. Canada does not need a celebrity leader. Neither did yours. Canada does not need a celebrity leader. We need a competent one.

And while that really clearly resonates with Conservative Party members, what the last election taught that party, and in particular, even Aaron O'Toole, who said this in many interviews I've done with him since the last election, is that the Conservative Party's base is strong, but it's not enough to propel them to victory in a general election. And so Aaron O'Toole's biggest challenge and his biggest task right now is to take that enthusiasm and amplify it beyond the borders of the Conservative Party, something his predecessor was really unable to do. And I think that from what I gathered in his victory speech that Mr. O'Toole delivered tonight, he definitely understands that. So he gets that the party has to broaden its appeal. Because I believe that whether you are black, white, brown, or from any race or creed, you are an important part of Canada. And you have a home in the Conservative Party of Canada. It is time for many Liberal and NDP voters to socially distance themselves from those out of touch parties. And there were some indications of how he plans to do that.

The acknowledgement, for example, you know, if you're if you're in a union and you typically wouldn't look to the conservative party, kind of take a second look, he was asking people. He has that opportunity. And I think that challenge to address people who normally would not look to his party. And in fact, it's something he needs to do if he wants to actually win an election, which, by the way, maybe isn't this far off crazy concept, could be around the corner this fall, depending on how things go in Parliament when it resumes at the end of September. the contrast though is that that wasn't really the message that he had during the campaign right he was appealing to almost like a completely different voter and so does the Canadian public buy

whatever this morphs into whatever appeals are made or are they continually remembering you know true blue conservative true blue conservative like can he make the shift can he broaden his appeal after concentrating it so specifically in this leadership race? Well, it sounds like he has a lot of work ahead of himself now to really introduce his platform and himself to Canadians. But also the Trudeau government has been weighed down by all the

controversies this summer with We Charity, the resignation of the finance minister. How keen or how ready do you think Mr. O'Toole is to go to the polls in a general election as early as this fall? I wouldn't use the word keen, but I don't think he's not ready either. And not him specifically, but the Conservatives. Like I said, they're known for how well organized they are, how good they are at fundraising. They are in a relatively good position when it comes to the possibility of an election. Now, that's not to say that the challenge wouldn't be a big one because Mr. O'Toole is just starting as leader. So if there's a campaign that kicks off in five weeks, well, that's not a lot of time to introduce yourself to Canadians and to

sort of perform in the role of official leader of the official opposition and get Canadians to know you just by virtue of you holding the government to account. So from all my conversations with people surrounding him, you know, the preference is not to go to the polls this fall, but there is an acknowledgement that that's possible and inherent to that they have to be ready for that possibility. And they certainly are ready for the possibility of one, let's say, in early 2021 or towards the spring. So not a huge gap of time between the two scenarios, but I think the preference is definitely for later rather than sooner. Vashi, thank you for staying up late and doing this interview with us.

It's always great to get your insight. Great to be with you. I hope I made sense. You did. We have to admit that as much as we were glued to the conservative leadership results on Sunday night, we also snuck a few glances at the Raptors game as they swept the Brooklyn Nets in the first round of the NBA playoffs. It was the first playoff sweep in Raptors franchise history. The final score was 150-122. This isn't the only good news for the team.

On Saturday, Nick Nurse was named NBA Coach of the Year. The Raptors will go on to face the Boston Celtics next. The first game will be on Thursday. That's all for today. Thanks for listening to FrontBurner. Go Raps Go!