Front Burner - Flashpoint Taiwan: Tensions escalate between China and the West

Episode Date: October 13, 2021

Today Brian Hioe explains how Taiwan became a pawn in a global competition between China and the West — and what that means for the island’s people.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Jamie Poisson. So this week was Taiwan's National Day, and this year the island wanted to send a message. This is an extraordinary sight. Four kinds of domestically produced missiles rolling through the capital in front of Taiwan's presidential palace, an ominous sign of escalating regional tensions. Most Taiwanese people see themselves as part of an independent country. China says there is only one China and Taiwan is part of it.

Just last week, China sent more than 100 planes into Taiwan's self-declared identification zone. And the U.S. and the West, they've been using this moment as a chance to push back against China with military exercises of their own. The U.S., U.K. and Japan have been moving warships in the region. Two American, one Japanese and a dozen other warships off Okinawa. and a dozen other warships off Okinawa. I've been in the Navy for 20 years. I've never been to such a showcase of evil power. Because for people outside Taiwan,

Taiwan has become this flashpoint for a U.S. and a China that are both increasingly bellicose. So what does that mean for the people who actually live there? Brian Hu is a founding editor of New Bloom magazine in Taiwan, and he joins me from Taipei now. Hi, Brian. Thank you so much for making the time to speak with us today. Thanks for having me. It's great being on. I wonder if you could bring us up to speed on what we've seen from China and Taiwan over the past few weeks. So if you looked up in the sky in the

capital of Taiwan, what would you have seen? So yeah, I mean, if you look up in the skies, you would see some nice airplanes. These are Taiwanese planes. So this is in preparation for National Day because you have the usual thing of flyovers from planes, they release colorful smoke and that sort of thing, or you might see helicopters, helicopters with the national flag. And so this is a normal just for a national day every year. But this time around, there's also the Chinese military threats. This occurs farther away, it's southwest or southeast of Taiwan in the air defense identification zone. What the term refers to is normally the airspace in which aircraft identify themselves for security purposes so that the other actors in the area know who they are and why they're there. But this time around,

just since Chinese National Day on October 1st, one has seen repeated records broken in terms of the number of Chinese warplanes sent into Taiwan's air defense identification zone. And so this is around 150 records are continually broken. There's one day there's more than 50 planes in just one day. And that's a new record. And so what's the purpose of China doing that? So yeah, for Chinese National Day, because of the fact that China claims Taiwan to be part of it, then the attempt is made to intimidate Taiwan. That if you try to maintain your de facto independence or else effectively, that in the past, China has warned the threat of force is still on the table if Taiwan resists its efforts at facilitating unification. And so this has been on increase in the past year, just Chinese flybys, Chinese air incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone

are sometimes occurring at a near daily scale. And China also sometimes attempts to signal its military capacities to this extent, for example, conducting flybys in daytime and also nighttime. I know on Saturday, Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed to realize a, quote, peaceful reunification with Taiwan. Unification is the hope of all Chinese people. If China can be unified, all Chinese will enjoy a happy life. If China can't unify, everyone will suffer. How significant is that, that he said that?

So it's interesting because in 2019, he provoked a lot of backlash in Taiwan. People rallied behind Tsai Ing-wen because of the fact that Xi Jinping said force is still on the table if you resist efforts at unification. And so I think this time around, Xi was trying to vary it up a little. I think China realizes that this did not really work out so well last time around. But then when one thinks about the military threats that just took place in the days prior, I think Xi is just not saying the quiet part out loud, where I think this is a case of speak softly, but carry a big stick.

Right, right. And you mentioned Tsai Ing-wen, that's the president of Taiwan. And so how did she respond here? In that respect, Tsai responded by asserting that Taiwan would stand up for itself, that Taiwan has the support of members of the international community, that Taiwan was not the aggressor here, but China is the one that is threatening Taiwan. But yeah, I mean, just the effort is made to then say that Taiwan will stand up for itself and that Taiwan is not the provocateur here, because sometimes I think

there is that perception. Tell me more about that. Yeah, so historically, sometimes Taiwan is seen as a troublemaker in the region because of these efforts to resist forcible unification, to resist military invasion. I think it's oftentimes victim blaming or putting the shoe on the other foot. The US or other powers in the region, sometimes when they're trying to maintain smoother relations with China, then Taiwan becomes an inconvenient obstacle. And so, for example, in the past, the U.S., for example, did actually sabotage Tsai Ing-wen in her 2012 presidential run.

A phone call was placed to the Financial Times from the White House saying that the U.S. did not have faith in her. And so this was a blow to her election bid. And Tsai is from the historically independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party, which is a center-left political party. And she was up against the Chinese Nationalist Party. The Kuomintang Party maintains the status quo. Senior Communist Party figures say China is wary of the rival Democratic People's Party. And so that was an attempt to undermine her in that sense.

And so how has the U.S. and its allies been reacting now to these latest incursions and to the leadership in Taiwan? Yeah, so what is interesting, too, is particularly in response to Chinese military threats, the U.S. then will conduct exercises of its own. For example, naval exercises, conducting freedom of navigation operations, sending boats into international waters, but to show a signal to China that it is a presence in the region that has a stake in the matter. We'll abide by the Taiwan agreement. That's what we are. And we made it clear that i don't think he should be doing anything other than abiding by the agreement um so in the two days after chinese national day on october 2nd and october 3rd though this would have to be of course arranged in advance uh u.s carrier groups there are two u.s carrier groups in the area conducting joint exercises with a uk carrier group and a

japanese vessel as well and then after that the UK carrier group moves through the Luzon Strait to conduct joint exercises with the Singaporean Navy. And so this was intended to show a signal. They become stuck in this pattern of escalation in which I think both perceive themselves as only reacting to the others, but it does ramp up tensions that way. Both keep increasing what their exercises are.

Yeah, and tell me more about that, the concerns of these escalations. Like, what's the biggest concern here? So with these military threats directed at each other, there's the possibility of an accident, you know, just something goes wrong, a human error, or someone panics, something of that sort. But the danger is then if there's an accident, it's not likely this would lead to something like full scale war or so forth. But it could be a contributing incident to that. War would not break out at the tip of a hat. This would, you know, be it's not

so easy to launch an invasion after all, you have to prepare in advance to occupy for the long term, put down resistance, that sort of thing. And think about the other regional actors, the US and Japan, and how they would react. But if an incident happens, and then the public, the Chinese public, for example, is angry about it, maybe then the drums of war will be beating in the background, and that will push Chinese leaders to further escalation. And so there is that danger. In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here.

You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people, and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household income? That's not a typo. 50%. That's because money is confusing.

In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. Listeners to this show will know that we've talked a lot about Hong Kong over the last couple of years. China's overhaul of Hong Kong's electoral system to make it more Beijing-friendly. The criminalization of protests. Even putting out arrest warrants for people who speak up for Hong Kong abroad. And I wonder if you could compare what's happening in Taiwan to what we've

seen there. Yeah, it's very interesting, because one country, two systems as a political formula for Hong Kong was originally also intended to appeal to Taiwan, that Taiwan would be welcome back to the fold if it accepted this notion of one country, two systems, but that eventually that Taiwan would just go with unification in that sense. And so Hong Kong was always supposed to be a sort of positive example for Taiwan. However, it turned out to be quite the opposite, that once Hong Kong returned to Chinese control, one saw the deterioration of political freedoms much faster than anticipated by many. And so in that respect, I think Taiwanese are often worried of China all the more watching

these events in Hong Kong. And so this is a way in which Hong Kong is supposed to be a way to lure Taiwan back in, but that does not happen. And so Tsai, for example, has used this to her advantage in elections, citing that if the EMT, the pro-China party, gets elected, well, Taiwan could go down that path. Right. And I wonder if for our listeners, you might be able to remind us and maybe give us a little bit of a history lesson here, sort of a Coles notes of how Taiwan became what it is today. Taiwan is de facto independent. It's not recognized by most of the world's countries because of the fact that there's China lurking in the background. But also the last time the same political entity controlled both Taiwan

and the Chinese mainland was actually 1895. So that was during the Qing dynasty. And the Qing did not control all of Taiwan either. But then that raises the question, for example, that the modern-day China, the People's Republic of China, is what overthrew the Qing dynasty. Does it inherit the claims of the Qing dynasty? And so the population of Taiwan is 2% indigenous. Around 88% are descended from earlier waves of Han Chinese migration from China.

But that occurred before, you know, just modern-day China, before the PRC came to exist. And sometimes Chinese dynasties not really consider Taiwan really to be part of it. After the Sino-Japanese War, Taiwan was ceded to Japanese control. So there was a 50-year Japanese colonial period. That's about half of Taiwan's modern history.

And so after that, then Taiwan became where the Chinese Nationalist Party retreated to following their defeat in the Chinese Civil War to the Chinese Communist Party. And they brought with them around 10% of the population now. Their descendants are around 10%. And so sometimes there is a view that, for example, before the Chinese Nationalist Party came to Taiwan, that Taiwan was empty and there was not people.

But that's not actually the case. The majority of people were already here. And so this is one of the reasons why there is independent notions of identity from China. And Taiwan was then an authoritarian country under the KMT, which only could have occurred actually with the US backing the KMT,

the Chinese Nationalist Party, that is for decades under the dictatorial rule of Chiang Kai-shek and his son, Chang Shing-kuo. But then Taiwan democratized in the 80s and 1990s and had free and democratic elections. And so Tsai Ing-wen, who is the current president, is the second non-Chinese Nationalist Party president in Taiwanese history. This is also the first time under her term that a different political party has held the majority in the Taiwanese legislature. And so democratization is actually still something fairly recent in that respect. She has said, Tsai Ing-wen, the president has said that the situation in Taiwan is more complex and fluid than at any other point in the past 72 years. And would you agree with that?

Yeah, I think particularly US-China relations are at the worst they've been in any recent memory. And so tensions are high and Taiwan is caught somewhere in between. For example, military threats directed at Taiwan are not always only directed at Taiwan. With the aim of making Taiwanese fear China and not want to resist China, it's also intended to signal the U.S. in that respect. And so then Taiwan is used as a proxy for the U.S. And so this complex relation is very difficult to manage. It requires dealing with just shifting terrain on both sides regarding just the change in consensus among U.S. policymakers regarding Taiwan policy or regarding China. I think also regional actors such as Japan or South Korea or

the Philippines are also wary of China, and they have conflicting claims regarding South China Sea's territories sometimes, or islands and seawaters and that sort of thing. And so I think it is a very complex situation, and it's hard to kind of see what will happen next. And once in a while, when this kind of thing happens, such as these flybys, it is quite unpredictable. And once in a while when this kind of thing happens, such as these flybys, it is quite unpredictable. This incredible politicization of Taiwan, how does that impact actual Taiwanese lives on the ground? How does that play out day to day, you think? So it is actually one of those funny things because this is always the largest political issue looming in the background, independence versus unification. That affects the choices of voters basically for every election, which party do you go with what they stand for or the

claim to stand for that moment in time. But the flybys actually, they might not have necessarily had the intended effect if the attempt was to frighten Taiwanese people, because life just goes on as usual for the most part. People are worried of it, and it is a front page news item, but that headline quickly becomes buried in other news items about COVID or celebrity gossip or other things like that. Because I think just what has happened is that there have been so many Chinese military threats in the past decades

that Taiwanese are just rather used to at this point, becomes part of everyday life. And so there's not a sense of progressing threat sometimes, which is also maybe, that might actually be a matter of concern that there's no sense of progressing, developing threat which is also maybe, that might actually be a matter of concern, that there's no sense of progressing, developing threat, because it's become too monotonous and repetitive as a news item.

Taiwan has sounded the alarm on a growing military threat from China. At its highest level in recent history. And more alarmingly, potentially for combat. Chinese air force that has sent a fleet of aircraft close to Taiwan. Taiwanese pilots scramble American-made fighter jets to practice responding to Chinese military incursions. Harassing the Taiwanese as well and testing their air defenses and response. What do you think the people of Taiwan want for the future? I think it's to be left alone for the most part.

Taiwan, I think a lot of Taiwanese people are aware that, for example, pursuing formal independence, changing the institutions of the constitution to realize a form of de jure legal independence might be risky. It would provoke possibly immediate action from China. However, in the meantime, just China is not governing Taiwan and people just want things to stay as they are. And so I think just wanting to be left alone is what they want for the most part. Let us here renew with one another our enduring commitment to a free and democratic constitutional system. The future of the Republic of China, Taiwan, must be decided in accordance with the will of the Taiwanese people.

And so this is what Tsai asserted in her speech, too. Just the status quo is what Taiwan wants. Taiwan must be decided in accordance with the will of the Taiwanese people. And so this is what Tsai asserted in her speech, too, just the status quo is what Taiwan wants, that Taiwan will not risk that through pursuing formal independence, nor does it want unification, but it just wants to be alone as it is now. What do you think the odds are that that is the current course that they're on? It's very difficult. I think a lot of it really depends on just dragging things out and hoping that maintaining Taiwan's de facto independent status will be enough in the long term. And just because as you drag it out,

then the odds of China actually being able to take Taiwan are decreased. You have less political legitimacy to make claims over Taiwan when this just does not happen. And so maintaining a balance of power in order to ensure that happens without resorting to anything like armed conflict breaking out, or that would lead to loss of life, trying to avoid those outcomes. I think that's what Tsai or most Taiwanese people are trying to aim for at present. But it's very difficult. And unfortunately, I think Taiwan is just at the mercy of these larger powers sometimes, that it is, for better or worse, a geopolitical pawn caught between the U.S. and China. And there's no clear way out.

These powers will not just fade away tomorrow. And so what happens in the future is really uncertain in that sense. Okay. Brian, thank you so much for this. Really, really appreciate it. Thank you. All right, so before we let you go today, a few days ago, U.S. officials acknowledged to the Wall Street Journal that for about a year now, U.S. troops have been quietly deployed in Taiwan. They've had a contingent of Marines and other troops there training the island's military.

The training started under the Trump administration. One expert told The Guardian this training was an open secret in defense circles, but that this confirmation could further fan the flames of conflict. The story dropped the same day that the CIA announced a new mission center focused only on China. All right, that is all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening to FrontBurner, and we'll talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.