Front Burner - From rallies to re-election: Trump’s path to victory

Episode Date: November 7, 2019

He’s a president under pressure. He’s facing impeachment, fending off lawsuits, and his approval rating is consistently below 50 per cent. But Donald Trump is also presiding over a strong economy, and a low unemployment rate. Today on Front Burner, CBC Washington Correspondent Paul Hunter on Trump’s next challenge… re-election. One year from voting day -- we look at Trump’s path to victory.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Jamie Poisson. Maybe you thought Canada's six-week federal election seemed long. But our campaigns are really nothing compared to the marathons in the United States. The presidential election is still a year away, and politicians have already been campaigning for months. The Democrats are still trying to pick the candidate they think will give them the best shot at the White House.

But on the Republican side, well, there's no real question who they'll go with. President Donald Trump's approval rating hasn't beat his disapproval rating since shortly after he took office. And he's under fire these days. An impeachment investigation, an order to release his taxes. But that hasn't stopped his fans from turning out to his rallies in the thousands. If somebody had told me five years ago that I would want to go to a campaign rally, that I would be this excited to go to a campaign rally. I would have told them they were crazy. But this man, President Trump, we love him.

My colleague Paul Hunter has gone to some of Trump's rallies, and he's here to talk to us about how likely it is that Trump will pull off another victory. That's today on FrontBurner. Hi, Paul. Hey, Jamie. Thanks for coming back on the podcast. I love it. Always a pleasure to have you here. So I'm so fascinated to talk to you today.

I know that you went to some of these rallies that the Trump campaign organized. But to be with thousands of incredible patriots who put their faith in God, family and country. What were you after? Why did you want to go to them? Well, you know, we've been, whenever you cover the Trump story and you want to include Trump voters in it from a news perspective, the challenge is, you know, you've only got so much time. It's unfortunate because it's a challenge with news broadly, but people have a lot to say. And so what we really wanted to do was one year out from the next election was to talk to Trump nation, to Trump people at length and really kind of dive in a little bit on who they're about, what matters to them

and why they're still lining up to see a Trump rally. Finally, a president that gets it and is there to work for the people. If we don't stand and we don't reelect Trump, we're going to be a socialist country one day. And that's not a country I want my grandchildren in. And first, what was it like to be there? What was the scene like? It's like nothing I've ever, I've covered politics for a long time. And I've never seen anything like this, even in a compressed Canadian 40-day election where emotions run high because of the compressed time. It's crazy, right? Like people camping out for literally days ahead of time.

People who drive. We're in Tupelo, Mississippi last week and met a guy who'd driven from Nevada. Somebody else who'd driven from Ohio. Somebody else who'd driven from Florida. And by the way, besides meeting a bunch of people for whom it was the first time

they'd ever been to a Trump rally or any political rally... First-timers, okay. First timers, but also 18th timers. You know, it's for the love and the support for our president. Not only that, but for the people as well. And 58th timers. I've been around politics since I was a 13-year-old boy.

I've done nothing like this. I've witnessed nothing like this. You know, it's weird. It's kind of more like a rock concert. Yeah, no, exactly. People describe it as that, and there's a terrific vibe. The atmosphere is all energy and love. I call it a love fest.

I like to use that because that's what it is. Like, there's camaraderie. People go out, and, oh, I'm going to go get you some coffee, come back, and we'll sit and we'll chat and we'll have a little, you know, a get-together. It's like a religious revival meeting as well. It's another way of looking at it. I believe in the Creator, and I believe that He's appointed and He's anointed to do what He's doing. But so, you know, that's the night before and the night before that, but the day of, That's the night before and the night before that.

But the day of, then the throngs arrive and there's this gigantic, ever-thickening snake line of, you know, MAGA hat-wearing, Trump-loving people. Yeah! All right! Four more years! Four more years! You know, all wearing the buttons and chanting Trump, Trump, Trump. Trump, Trump, Trump. You know, there's a, on one side, this was the case in Tupelo anyway, they have a giant jumbotron playing, Trump TV, basically.

We're making America great again. We're making America great again. And thank you to everyone who's tuned in. And so there's Laura Trump, who is Eric Trump's wife, sitting at an anchor desk, you know, a faux anchor desk, interviewing people about Trump and how great Trump is and all the great things Trump has done for the country. And isn't this wonderful? We all know that the harder they fight him, the harder he's going to fight back.

And you're right. The more they push him, the harder he's going to fight back. And you're right. The more they push him, the more he'll get done for this country. And so for hours and hours and hours, as the lineup waits for the doors to open, people have nothing. You can chat with each other or you watch this TV, which just reinforces, isn't this a great guy? It's kind of weird. So they're essentially making their own TV. Yeah, for sure. They're not playing TV sympathetic to them.

No, no, this is not. It's not even it's not even Fox News. Right. It's Trump. It's Trump TV. You're not playing TV sympathetic to them. No, no. This is not, it's not even Fox News. Right? It's Trump TV. Right? And in the middle of all that comes, you know, then up will come a placard that just says Trump Pence 2020. And then a voice goes,

if when you're in the rally you see a protester. Please do not in any way touch or harm a protester. Please do not in any way touch or harm a protester. Please notify law enforcement officers of the location of the protester by holding a rally sign over your head and chanting, Trump, Trump, Trump. Trump, Trump, Trump.

Anyway, that's the atmosphere outside. But, I mean, the truth is it's a really positive vibe. Like everybody's in a great mood and they can't wait to see this guy. Almost like a tailgate or something. Yeah, no, that's another analogy. It's like a tailgate and they love it and they can't wait to get inside. And what are they saying to you

when you're talking to them? Like, what are they telling you about why they're there and why they love Trump? Well, first off, they can't, they can't say often enough how much they love Donald Trump. Like universally, it's the first words out of everyone's mouth. We love this guy. I mean, it is an honest, heartfelt, because he loves us.

He loves this country. He loves our Constitution. He understands us. He speaks for us. He speaks like us. You know, when he was at the one a couple of weeks ago, and he gets up at the podium and read the impeachment inquiry. An illegal, invalid, and unconstitutional bullshit impeachment.

People love that about him. He uses swear words. Right, like real talk. Like real talk. Not, in contrast, not like every other politician they've ever known. Suddenly he talks like them. And so they, it's like, there's still a kind of a disbelief that, that one of their peeps got, setting aside all the contradictions in this, right? But that one of their people actually is in the White House. Like they're still giddy from 2016. Right. In a sense. Like this isn't about him being a Republican.

This is very specific to Trump and his. Exactly. Ethos. Exactly. And they will go down the list of other things, especially having watched Trump TV to be reinforced with all this. Oh, he's created jobs. Nobody says that jobs were created under Obama as well. Oh, he got Baghdadi, right? Nobody says that Obama got bin Laden. And they'll go down these sort of, I don't mean to be pejorative about this, but these talking points of Trump's achievements. He's brought in 500,000 manufacturing jobs for the USA since he's been president. I mean,

it's just amazing what this man does because he cares about the people. And they think, like, why does nobody talk? You know, why did he get booed at the Washington Nationals baseball game? Why did he get booed at the Washington Nationals baseball game? He did something great for our country last week, and he gets booed at the national stadium. And it's just, can you cut him a little bit of slack and let him be the president? Like he had just killed Baghdadi.

Nobody understands, they see it as disrespectful that the whole country isn't on side with this because it's so plain to them, right? The more they attack Trump, somebody told me. The more we love him and the more determined we are to get out there and support him. Somehow he's touched a nerve with millions of Americans. This is not just the thousands that show up at these rallies. There are, don't forget, 63 million people voted for him last time around. And yeah, he's low in the polls right now, right? But that's still, in this country,

that still means many, many, many millions of people are still behind this guy. Do they talk to you about where they're getting their information from? Do they talk about the media? 100% of the time. It's so weird. Do they can you can like so that's like do they like you? I guess I don't. How are you doing in these? Well, I'll say this much that the Canadian flag has great resonance down here. Oh, OK, because what that means is you're not CNN. Right. To me, the term fake news is one of the most powerful tools in the Trump toolbox, because what it says to Trump followers is you should not believe anything else. It's fake. Believe me. So I ask people that same question all the time. Like, where do you get your information?

And I get a variety of answers. I get InfoWars. Okay. Right? They get their information from Trump. They get them from Trump tweets. See, our president talks to us through Twitter. He talks to us through social media.

So he's always letting us know what's going on daily. They say, you know what we don't like about fake news? What we don't like about fake news is they make everything up. Right. They're trying to impeach the president. It's all lies because Trump tells them it is because Trump says the information you see on TV and on radio and in podcasts is fake and it's out to get us and it's out to get rid of this presidency. Don't let them do it is his message. And they believe it because it's been like, how long has he been

saying fake news like after a certain point it sinks in since the get-go campaigning exactly yeah and they love the fact i mean even once you're inside the uh the rally and in very at every single one that i've been to he will get to the point in his speech where he talks about the fake news media and he gestures out to the pen in the middle that we're all uh uh contained within the fake news media right back there. Look at all of them. Then all the happy vibe in the arena flips, and it's the booing and the thumbs down.

It's almost like now we get to be those people who chant, Lock her up. We get to be those people who chant fake news. We're in the house with Trump and we get to be like that. And it feels good is what it looks like when they're doing it. Oh, it's so interesting. I also, I was looking at some of your footage from the rallies and I couldn't help but notice that these crowds are predominantly white. I mean, I'm not saying anything that's new here. Did they talk to you about race at all? Indirectly. You know, you're right. It, you know, it wasn't 100%, but it was in the high 90s, let's say.

I'll give you one story that was told to me off camera. And it was to the question, I'll give you one story that was told to me off camera. And it was to the question, when did you become like a Trump supporter? She goes, so remember the day that he came down that escalator in Trump Tower in 2015? That was the day he called Mexicans rapists and drug dealers. They're bringing drugs. They're bringing crime. They're rapists.

And some, I assume, are good people. This was the day that he was announcing his candidacy for the White House. So this woman says to me, it was the day after that that I became a Trump supporter. Why is that? She goes, well, that was the day that he called Mexicans, you know, rapists and drug dealers. And she says, the next day day he didn't apologize. Every other politician would have realized that that was the wrong thing to say. And they would have apologized and said, I misspoke.

She said, I happen to agree with him. But what I really like about him was that he owns it. Right. And he's not afraid to say it. And so to your question, do people talk about race? Well, she didn't explicitly talk about race, but she made it clear that she believes Trump when he says Mexicans are rapists and drug dealers. But it is not something that is brought up in an overt fashion. In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization,

empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. So look, this group of people, they're obviously hardcore committed. They're not random. They're not a random sampling of the population. But how does this help us know what might happen in 2020? You know, knowing today that these rallies are still very strong. As strong as they were, it sounds like, in 2016. Yes, they are, is certainly my observation, and I think broadly. We see it week after week after week.

And you're right. These are hardcore people. I think an argument can be made. Look, there's no denying Trump is in a hole, right? When you look at the polls. But we also know, you know, about polls, and it's a complicated circumstance, especially in this country with the Electoral College, etc, etc. So Trump is in a hole. But an argument can be made that he's going all in with his hardcore people. We don't listen to the polls. Our president tells us that. And if he does tell us to listen to polls, he always tells us to add 12 to 14 points to them, you know, because he's funny, as you know.

So if he what he knows is that a motivated supporter will do what he needs them to do, which is to get out and vote. Easier said than done. That's why turnouts are what they are worldwide. But if you can motivate your people, you know this much, they are damn sure. Somebody told me in Tupelo on Friday, I can't wait for November to get here. Because we love him. What's it going to make you do in November?

It's going to make us get to those polls. If we have to crawl on our hands and knees. make us get to those polls if we have to crawl on our hands and knees right they will get out and vote you know we'll find out in exactly a year whether it's enough for him and a year is a long time in this country especially with all the stuff that's going on right now but motivated voters vote and trump has been motivating his backers from the get-go. He does it, he's campaigning all along, right in front of us. Mississippi, aren't you getting tired of winning? And it's like, that stuff works. That's effective.

So what I do find fascinating about American politics is that it feels like these elections are fought on inches, sort of. Like, we know last time that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, but she lost in these swing states, right? So talking about this motivated base, like, how do they fit in to these states that, you know, any candidate needs to win if they want to win the presidency. We know this much, that you could effectively forget about every other state. Right. This election is Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona.

That's it. I mean, it is and it isn't. Right. There was a piece that I read not too long ago that was positing, you know, so Clinton beat Trump by three million votes nationwide last time. Trump could lose the popular vote by 5 million votes, goes one formula, and still win the Electoral College. He only needs enough voters in those states to win those Electoral College votes to do it again. So there was some polling out recently that's, you know, kind of looked at

Trump v. Biden, Trump v. Warren, Trump v. Sanders in each of these places. out recently that's, you know, kind of looked at Trump v. Biden, Trump v. Warren, Trump v. Sanders in each of these places. And it's close. You know, Democrats have some work to do themselves. It's as if you cannot just bank on distaste for Trump as being a ticket to the White House. And so let's talk about the Democratic candidates for a second in this polling that you mentioned. Can we unpack that a little bit? Like, I know you mentioned that it's close for all of the three frontrunners, Warren, Sanders, Biden. But but, you know, how does that how how is that breaking down? They are trying to decide the kind of candidate that they want. Is that going to be somebody whose vision for America is the one that they think America should be, let's say? Universal health care? Yep.

Free college education, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. Right, and we're talking about Elizabeth Warren here and Bernie Sanders. You know, a lot of people are afraid of big structural change. A lot of people are afraid of big structural change. A government based on the principles of justice, economic justice, racial justice, social justice. Or is it somebody who can beat Trump? Yeah. Is it the safe, congenial Uncle Joe? Yeah.

Donald Trump thinks Wall Street built America. Ordinary middle class Americans built America. My dad used to have an expression. He said, Joe, a job is about a lot more than a paycheck. That's a tough one because these polls, Biden does better against Trump than Warren or Sanders. And so be careful what you wish for, Democrats, is the message out of that. You could say, Elizabeth Warren, holy cow, she is it, man. That's the America that we aspire to be. But what's interesting is that in those states that matter, the people with the more lefty ideas, right now, anyway, are the ones that are struggling against Donald Trump. And, you know, consider what's at the heart of the Ukraine circumstance right now. It's Trump going after Biden.

So I quote, I said, let me act like him. I got to speak really slow, though. And I looked at them and I said, I'm leaving in six hours. If the prosecutor isn't fired, you're not getting the money. Do you understand? You're not getting the money. Right. Why? Why would he do that? Because he knows who he's worried about. Right. So consider that. And right. I know we can do an entire podcast on this subject alone. But, you know, you mentioned Ukraine. What about this impeachment process? Like, is that likely to have an effect on the outcome here? Well, it's not going to have, I was going to say it's not going to have an effect on Trump voters, but it is. I think it heightens the intensity of their support for Trump because, again, they see it as the other side ganging up and making up stuff

to go after this guy you know I said you know well what about and I started you know listing off some of the aspects of of of the Ukrainian uh circumstance and he's and and the fellow said to me yeah but Trump says everything was fine so when our president tells us that he did everything right, he did everything correct in the right way, well, guess what? We believe him. And he looks at me like that's enough. You know what I mean? So again, it gets back to these are all true believers.

So will the impeachment change anything? Well, if he's impeached, as somebody else told me, we'll just go out and vote him back in again. You know, it seems like this is a very real possibility that Donald Trump could win here in 2020. And so what happens if he does win? Four more years of the same? Is that what we're looking at here? Well, certainly on one level. I mean, I wonder more about what happens if he loses.

You know, and I think ahead to, let's say, October, you know, late in the game next year, October 2020. And if he is way, way, way behind in the polls, let's say, I can picture Trump. And he's said things similar to this already. behind in the polls, let's say, I can picture Trump, and he's said things similar to this already, I can picture Trump, you know, at a podium telling Trump nation, you know, don't let them take your country away from you. They're going to refill the swamp, you know. They want to erase your vote like it never existed. They want to erase your voice and they want to erase your future. And there will be fury, right? I mean, people told me there will be, you know, people said we will be angry, right? And what that really means is that this incredibly divided country, at best, remains incredibly divided, at worst, gets even more so. I. There are no conversations.

There's no middle ground right now. And it would only deepen it. And I don't know what that means for America. But, you know, I would say one more thing. Everybody I met at every rally, and certainly in Tupelo on Friday, they're nice people, broadly speaking. But I'm just happy to do it. Meet all these wonderful people. and certainly in Tupelo on Friday. They're nice people, broadly speaking. But I'm just happy to do it, meet all these wonderful people.

We've become fast friends in many instances, and it's just an unbelievable thing. You know what I mean? Like, generous with their time. Right. They're regular. Care about their communities. They care about their communities, and they have a different perspective on the world.

But they are just as American as everybody else. And their vote counts just as much as anybody else. And they have a right to elect who they want, just like any... That's what democracy is. Right. And if they're sitting in these swing states, their votes count more. Indeed. Exactly. And so, you know, it's they emphasized to me that they will be they will see it as there.

It'll be stolen from them. Right. By the by the bad Democrats. If if he loses. OK, well, we're quite a year ahead of us. Paul Hunter, I am so glad that we have you in Washington to check in with. Thank you so much. Let's talk again soon.

So speaking of that impeachment process, which, depending on who you ask, could help or hurt Donald Trump. Well, on Wednesday, House Democrats announced that public hearings will start next week. Three state officials involved in the U.S.'s Ukraine policy will testify. It's a sign they feel they have enough information to bring to voters. This will all eventually culminate in a vote that could impeach Trump. Like Paul and I talked about, it then has to go to the Republican-controlled Senate. That's all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening to FrontBurner and see you tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.