Front Burner - Front Burner presents: Party Lines

Episode Date: September 7, 2019

Jayme introduces Party Lines, a new CBC podcast and a political primer for every kind of concerned citizen. The National’s Rosemary Barton and BuzzFeed News’ Elamin Abdelmahmoud are here to take you beyond the talking points and provide the insights you need to navigate the upcoming federal election. Head to cbc.ca/partylines for more.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, everyone. We have a very special bonus episode for you today. It's the very first episode of CBC's new elections podcast, Party Lines, a political primer for every kind of concerned citizen. The podcast is co-hosted by Rosemary Barton of The National and BuzzFeed News' Elamin Abdel-Mamoud. Each week, they'll take you beyond the talking points and provide the insights you need to navigate the upcoming federal election. New episodes will be released every Thursday.

Here's the first one. Have a listen. I'm Rosemary Barton. And I'm Elamin Abdelmahmoud. And this is it. It's Party Lines. Every Thursday, we're going to talk to you about the stories and issues that we think are going to shape the upcoming federal election. Of course, there's no election actually that has started yet. As far as I know. Have you heard anything?

No. But it just kind of feels like we're constantly in sort of election mode. So there's already a lot to talk about and to understand. Yeah, it is hard to tell. It feels like the campaign has started already. It is hard to tell. It feels like the campaign has started already. And there's a lot to talk about because every party, every leader, as every election, perhaps more than ever, has a lot riding in this election. So that's where I want to start this week.

Well, let's do it. Let's do it. OK, so it's really about what's at stake for each party, each leader. Let's start with the government, because they probably have obviously the most at stake with the majority government. Prime Minister running on a record for the first time, trying to figure out if he can get another mandate to continue. What do you think is the biggest deal for Justin Trudeau? To me, it feels like in the 2015 election, a lot of people lent the Liberals their vote. It wasn't so much, I'm really excited to vote for the Liberals as much as we want change from Stephen Harper.

But this time around, they're not expected to have the same kind of support. Justin Trudeau is not as popular as he was when he first got elected. So it feels like, in many ways, it feels like a referendum on Justin Trudeau because of that popularity. Yeah, I mean, I think I think that's fair. And I think it was this overwhelming desire for change that led to this massive majority for them. But I do think he inspired people and he maybe inspired people that don't usually feel that way. Young people. Obviously, he got a lot of young people to vote.

Indigenous Canadians felt compelled to vote for him. More women brought into the fold that gave him a majority. So I think it was partly that I guess my question would be, can he do that again? Can you go get those people again? And can he inspire them in some way again? And I don't know what the answer is to that, because he certainly has disappointed people over the past four years as well. Because how do you not disappoint people, frankly, when you're in government? That's right. It helped a lot, though, that he was drawing this contrast against Stephen Harper, which is why you could see him drawing that same contrast again now, you know, four years later.

They very rarely say Andrew Scheer. It's very much like and conservatives like Doug Ford and conservatives like Jason Kenney. Like they're drawing sort of like the enemy that they're trying to conjure up is like this like broader sort of conservative conservatism. Yeah. In fact, liberals will tell you. Well, that'll be good for the podcast. In fact, liberals will tell you that they are trying to run like an opponent's campaign. trying to run like an opponent's campaign. So in many ways, they're trying to run the same campaign they did in 2015, where Trudeau was third-party status, doing well in the polls, but very much the underdog, and had to somehow make that leap,

not only past Tom Mulcair in the NDP, who were riding super high in the polls as well, and past Stephen Harper, but the idea that he was in third place and vaulted to first, if they can somehow recreate that notion, particularly for the prime minister who works better as a fighter, that's how they'd like to have that campaign this time around too. So whether that works, I don't know. Should we move to Andrew Scheer? Let's do it. A fellow that hasn't done this before, young, has been Speaker of the House of Commons for most of his political career. A position that did not require him to have sort of, you know, gloves up all the time.

That's right. But has embraced his role, I would say, since becoming leader of the Conservative Party. I wonder, just from the things I'm hearing, whether this is it, whether he gets one kick at the can or two. And I think that that's things that conservatives are wondering too. And what does that look like for him? If he gets a minority, you know, okay, great, he's got it. Obviously a majority as well. But if he holds Justin Trudeau to a minority. Is that a success?

Is that enough? Do you think it is? I am not sure from the things that I have heard from people. I think that everyone likes him in the Conservative Party. Well, most people like him in the Conservative Party. But I'm not sure that they think he is everything that they wanted him to be, especially when you're facing a Justin Trudeau. I mean, I think they have resigned themselves to the fact that we can't find a Justin Trudeau. So we're going to have this guy who's like sort of a regular guy with kids and drives a minivan and that's okay.

But I'm not sure that just holding Justin Trudeau to a minority would be enough for Sheryl. I feel like he has to win. I have to imagine that, you know, if you don't beat this prime minister, it's like who else are you going to beat? With the scandals that have been happening, with the Ethics Commissioner report, with the popularity dip, this is, at least on paper, just in general. There's opportunity. Right. It's like, you must be able to do it because this is a relatively weak prime minister, or at least on paper, he is.

Except, you know, he has done some things, to be fair to the prime minister, right? There was that study the other day done by academics that said that most governments do keep their promises. And this government has kept the large majority of them. Obviously not the big ones that everyone maybe wanted, democratic reform, balanced budgets, that kind of stuff. So will it be just campaigning against that? Or is there also a risk of campaigning against Justin Trudeau, who loves to campaign and who thrives in those environments? So I don't know. Do you say to Andrew Scheer, well, no one can beat this guy? Or as you're saying, he screwed up a few times now. You didn't take advantage of that.

I mean, the problem with the problem throughout the entirety of the prime ministerial ship of Trudeau is that he doesn't just say things, he declares them from the mountaintop. And I want to say this. Many of you have worried that Canada has lost its compassionate and constructive voice in the world over the past 10 years. Well, I have a simple message for you. On behalf of 35 million Canadians, we're back. Right. So he doesn't say we're going to have bureaucratic reform. He says this will be the last election using first, best, and foremost. He should be more wishy-washy.

Right. I'm saying it's not going to work to his favor that he declares these things from the mountaintop and then doesn't deliver on them. Because when you make such strong declarations, the suggestion is that you're going to follow through with them because they're so important. Yes. NDP. Things are not looking great for them. Not enough candidates, not enough money.

Yeah. Some uncertainty around how the leader's going to do, given he's never done this before. They literally had to mortgage the headquarters in order to be able to afford a campaign. Like this is not an NDP that's in fighting shape. No. Crashing polls where they are sometimes trailing the Green Party. I think not only is this like here I will be more definitive than with Scheer.

With Scheer, I don't know. It could go any way. He may stay. He may not. He may win. He may not. With Singh, I think this is make or break. Yeah.

He has to keep 12 seats to have official party status in the House of Commons. Are things that dire? Yes. Okay. They are that dire. Mostly because they're going to lose a lot of seats in Quebec. If you believe the polls and the campaign matters and anything could happen, and don't replay this to me after the election.

I'm going to. This is possibly also a big defining moment for the NDP. I think there's something to be said about the fact that the decline of the NDP, at least in this moment, is so hand in hand with the rise of the Greens, right? Because we could conceivably see the Greens kind of jump to that third place and keep it for some time if they can sort of run that professional campaign that people are kind of expecting, at least at this point. Do you think they can do that? The Greens, I mean. At this point, they claim that they can. They appear to have the infrastructure to do it.

I think climate change has kind of shifted from pretty important issue to like this is dire. Emergency. Yeah. And so people are listening to the Greens, I think, a little bit closer than they were in the past few elections. That's why we see them polling so high, at least on the coast, both the Atlantic and the Pacific. I don't know if they've built the ground support. No, I don't know either.

But that's enough to get, you know, like 10, 12 percent of the vote. Yeah. Which would translate into more than two seats anyway. Yes. Yeah. And I would say that this is also then a test for Elizabeth May, because if you've got, I think, at last count that I did, 15 legislators elected, green legislators. So in four provinces, I think, people have been elected under the green banner. So if you've got that and you still can't translate that into more than your seat and somebody else's,

I don't think that's success for Elizabeth May. So I think she's got a, like this is it. She's got a pony up here because there's a moment in time. She's also the longest serving leader. That too. So at a certain point you become, you know, it's like you're either an asset to your party or if you're not able to translate this then you

become a liability because they've never had this much momentum going into it. Maxime Bernier, People's Party of Canada. Right. Look, it's tough to talk about Maxime Bernier because we're coming off a week where he called Greta Thunberg, who's a climate activist, mentally unstable. A teenage climate activist who has Asperger's. Yeah. A teenage climate activist who has Asperger's.

One really, it builds his mind as to who that is playing for. But his big success will be is if he's able to shift the conversation about the topics that he keeps talking about. You know, immigration being sort of top of mind. He keeps talking about multiculturalism. Will the other parties listen and shift their message according to what Maxime Bernier is saying so that they kind of head off, not the other parties, really just the Conservative Party. Will they shift their message so that they can head off any kind of advance that he can make? Let's see what the Conservatives have to say about that. Yeah, I mean, certainly, again, public opinion polls don't show him to be registering in any significant way. Again, public opinion polls don't show him to be registering in any significant way.

But again, you don't really know until things get going and you see what's going on. I would say he's tapped into something, right? A little bit of anger or fear maybe that people have around immigration. So that's a worthwhile conversation. But he seems or his Twitter account, because I'm not sure who's writing the tweets, to be frank. His Twitter account does seem to be quite angry. And if that's what he's using to try and drive voters to vote for him, that'll work for some people. But I don't know how many people. And I do think for him, to his credit, he got this up and running pretty quickly with a lot of candidates and a fair bit of money.

So let's see whether he can make that into something. I'm not convinced he can. The party system doesn't really favor someone like Maxime Bernier, right? Like even if all of those people were united, you know, in their whatever he's been able to unite them under, it's not a particularly efficient vote. It doesn't translate to a lot of seats across the country. We don't have a bunch of fringe parties inside the House of Commons. That's just not the way it works. We'll end with the Bloc Québécois, which surprisingly will, I think, benefit from some of that cratering NDP support in Quebec.

And now with yet another leader whose name I always have to remind myself of, Blanchette. Yeah, Blanchette. Yeah. That's the one. That's the one. They think that they're going to pick up some seats. He's also the most recent leader, right? He became leader earlier this year.

So he's not exactly a known quantity still. No, probably not. Well, he's a little bit known in Quebec because he was a pundit on TV for a while. And he was in Polymer, was government for a while. Yes, so he's got a couple things going for him. Yves-Francois Blanchet. Anyway, if he were to get them back to official party status, the Bloc, I think, would be very pleased with themselves.

So that's sort of the table as we head into the election that has yet to be called. In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization. Empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Rosie, this week I want to talk about the votes that you get with the things you don't say. And it seems apparent to me that all the leaders have something that they don't want to talk about.

And by not talking about it, they're angling themselves to get certain votes. But, you know, if you told me that two months ago we'd be talking in early September, you know, just a few weeks away from the election about Andrew Scheer's views on abortion and same-sex marriage, I'd have been like, that makes no sense to me. But in a sort of a move to shift the channel from the FX Commissioner report that the Liberals kind of trudged up this old Andrew Scheer video of him speaking in the House of Commons in 2005 against same-sex marriage. sheer video of him speaking in the House of Commons in 2005 against same-sex marriage. Two members of the same sex may use their God-given free will to engage in acts, to cohabit, to own property together. They may commit themselves to monogamy. They may pledge to remain in a loving relationship for life. In that sense, they have many of the collateral features of marriage,

but they do not have its inherent feature. As they cannot commit to the natural procreation of children. They cannot therefore be married. And so it kind of became the story. It became the story in part because Andrew Scheer didn't really address it. He took eight days away from the campaign from speaking to reporters and he came back and then he didn't really give an answer about what his views actually were. And he seemed puzzling to me because it's something that you could put to bed so easily. You know, Paul Martin did it in 2005 in a speech in the House of Commons. Four years ago, I stood in his house and voted to support the traditional definition of marriage.

Many of us did. My misgivings about extending the right of civil marriage to same-sex couples were a function of my faith and my perspective on the rural world around us. But much has changed since that day. And it was a simple enough speech that I think if Andrew Scheer were to say word for word, it'd be very easy for him to just like change the channel on this conversation. But there's a reason this is lingering, and it's because there are some things that he's not saying. And that is a strategic thing.

Why is he not saying this? Yeah, so I think it's more complicated for Andrew Scheer than it was for Paul Martin. And that clip that we heard there, it was very honest and frank and as sort of admission of where his own head was at. I think for Andrew Scheer, it's far more complicated. So he won the conservative leadership in large part because he pulled the social conservative vote away from other candidates. Remember, there were like 12, 13 people vying for that job. And he managed to pull those people away and eke out a victory over Maxime Bernier. And those people, I think, feel that there was a promise made to them by Andrew Scheer,

that it was OK to voice their opinions around abortion, particularly, but also around same-sex marriage. And that he would perhaps not defend them, but at least allow them to have those conversations. So if he were to come out and say, these are issues that I believe because of my religion, my faith, my beliefs, but I'm going to defend all Canadians. I don't know that the Canadians that put him in that job would feel that he was defending them. So don't you feel like that's maybe why he can't say more than he already has? I mean, by not saying anything, it certainly makes all the evidence kind of point in that direction. It feels like he's beholden to those people and he can't change that channel,

particularly on the abortion debate, because the Andrew Scheer line for the past week and a half has been – I've been very clear. And it's like, no, you have not. That is why we continue to have this conversation. He's been clear saying we will not reopen the debate on abortion. As a government. As a government. However, members are able to introduce the legislation themselves. Or motions.

Yes. And the government will oppose it. But then the MPs are allowed to have their own vote of conscience on this. So it's like a little bit unclear. And I don't think it's a strong enough line on his part that puts all of these doubts to bed. And I think the reason or the questions he still probably has to ask is what are what is his comfort level with those two social issues and policies. And the liberals are going at it because they sense that there is a potential to frighten people, frankly. Who's the audience for that, do you think?

Yeah, I think it's people that already lean liberal, but who maybe don't feel so worried that they have to get out and vote. So they're just being really careful and trying to spark a little bit of fear there. So, you know, I'm not inside Andrew Scheer's head, but I would imagine that there's some personal reasons why he can't say more either. And if he goes too far down the road of defending social conservatives and those beliefs, then he risks losing people that would vote for him too. It's a very tough position he's in. And I'm not sure we're going to hear more from him on it. But he's not the only one who is trying to get votes by not saying anything. I think I've condemned, you know, lukewarm soup stronger than Justin Trudeau's condemned

the Quebec secularism law. So just to remind people what that is, too. So that means that there is a desire within Quebec and now a law within Quebec that means you cannot wear religious symbols if you are in public jobs. Teachers, cops, other civil service jobs. You cannot wear a hijab. You cannot wear a turban. You cannot wear a kippah, all these different things. And it was an important part of, it's been an important part discussion in Quebec for many, many years. And it's part of the reason why that government got elected, because they said, we're win 48 seats in Quebec, it becomes a very hard calculus, especially when your popularity is down, to come out too strongly against a law that a lot of Quebecers do favor. And so for him, it's a tough position. No, it's not a tough position. We know where his morals are on this. And it is a tough position politically in terms of declaring Quebec to be in the wrong about it.

It's surprising to me, continues to surprise me that this is like not one of the top election issues. But I wonder whether it will flare up during the campaign. If you remember the campaign in 2015, there was a lot of talk around wearing niqabs for citizenship ceremonies. Yes. That became a real flashpoint. And when Tom Mulcair, who was the NDP leader at the time, decided he would stand up against that, it broke the NDP in Quebec.

He really, that position damaged that party in a really serious way. I think Justin Trudeau and others have seen that, have seen what this secularism law does, and are really wary about how far they can go. Anyone else not talking about things they should be talking about? Yeah, Jagmeet Singh won't say whether he supports the LNG development in BC. This is a huge natural gas project. That's a great answer for Trans Mountain, but I asked you about BC and LNG. Do you support the project? And I'm asking you because you were asked repeatedly yesterday that question.

You didn't answer it directly. Do you support the development of that project that, you know, clearly the BC NDP do? So the BC's got a great plan in terms of fighting climate change. They've got one of the best plans in the country. Another tricky one. Yes, because the NDP support in BC is pretty strong, but also the support that it's not especially popular development, right? Yeah, I think on issues around energy, Jagmeet Singh is in a tough position. He had difficulty taking a position on pipelines when he was running for leadership.

He has difficulty on this topic as well, in part because it is a project that has been supported by lots of people in B.C. So it puts him in a little bit of a pickle as well. The best thing for him, I guess, is to not say anything, which I think is in a broader way, your question is so interesting, because if you're not talking about things that you can't talk about, Why can't you defend that? And I understand all the political reasons we've talked about, but shouldn't you also be true to yourself and be able to stand up for those things in front of Canadians? And would Canadians then not have more respect for you because you are true to yourself in that defense? Are you saying there's something about that that reveals something about your character? Exactly.

Maybe. In my view, Canadians are a little cynical about politics. They see it as somewhat of a theater to begin with, so there's already some things that you're saying in order to not say the other things. So I think it's just what you expect from politicians is to just highlight certain things that you care about and never talk about the other stuff.

Oh, that's majorly depressing. I'm very sorry. Yeah. Is this news to you? All right. We're going to end with partying shots, which you will hear at the end of the podcast every week. Yes. We will choose something we've noticed.

And we're going to shoot it. We care about it. We're going to do a shot. No. And we will ask you what you think about it. And this week it's the favorite game in Ottawa. When will the writ be dropped? The city needs new games.

We already knew that. So first things first, nothing drops with a writ. No one is, there's no mics. What happens? Like nothing happens. The prime minister decides, hey, I'm ready for an election. He goes to see the governor general. He says, do it.

She dissolves parliament. The election starts. That's when the writ drops. That's what that means. That's the beginning of it. That's the beginning of it. Elections Canada then takes the writs. There's 338 of them for every writing in the country.

A piece of paper. Sends it out. Start it. Is it emailed? I don't know. I don't know that part. I think it's posted. Okay.

Snail mail. Got it. Maybe courier. And then the election's on. Okay. Okay. That's the beginning of it. That's the writ drop.

That's what I'm waiting for. Now, listen, like for the past two months, the leaders have been out nearly every day. Some of them have been making announcements. What is the actual difference between now and after the rit drops? So the party starts. The party starts. The party is starting. You need to go to more parties.

You're younger than me. So the spending limits kick in. They can only spend so much until October 21st. They can spend it on things like campaign buses and planes, which you will see flying across the country. There will be signs in your neighbor's yard. There will be some debates. There will be announcements. There will be rallies.

There will be a general excitement across the land. Yeah. For those listening at home, you have to imagine Rosie just wildly gesticulating about all of this because she's just so excited for it to happen. So excited. All right. So you're sitting here and you're holding your breath. What do you think is going to drop? September 15th would be my current guess based on intel that I've received

and general rumor mill inside Ottawa. Can't wait. Alright, if you want to play at home and you have personal bets, you should make them now. Use your own intel wherever you live in Canada. Send us your bet. I'm at Rosie Barton on Twitter. And I'm at Elamine88.

That's E-L-A-M-I-N-8-8. Were you born in 88? Yeah. Good year. Big year And I'm at Elamin88. That's E-L-A-M-I-N-88. Were you born in 88? Yeah. Oh, God. Good year. Big year. We're all, I'm so old. It was Billy Joel album.

It was me. What a year. I'm not saying when I was born. Thanks for listening to Party Lines. It's from CBC News and CBC Podcasts. I'm Rosemary Barton, co-host of The National. And I'm Elamin Abdul-Mahmoud. I'm editor of news curation for BuzzFeed News.

We hope you liked this episode. We hope you liked hanging out with us and getting informed as we kind of get ready for Rosie's favorite time of the year for some strange reason. He thinks that I'm faking it. I'm not. I don't know where this comes from for you, but I do not understand it.

And I will see you next week. Okay. Looking forward to it. Great. Bye. you've been listening to party lines a politics podcast from cbc news and cbc podcasts if you like what you hear subscribe to the podcast it's available wherever you download front burner for more cbc podcasts go to cbc.ca slash podcasts