Front Burner - Half a million COVID-19 deaths in Brazil, no end in sight

Episode Date: June 22, 2021

COVID-19 deaths have surpassed half a million in Brazil. Over the weekend, thousands of Brazilians took to the streets to protest President Jair Bolsonaro’s pandemic response. Today on Front Burner, how will Brazil find its way out of this crisis?

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. So this is the sound of thousands of people who took to the streets of Sao Paulo to protest against President Jair Bolsonaro's pandemic response. It wasn't just in Sao Paulo. Dozens of states across the country took part. This all comes as Brazil surpassed half a million

COVID deaths, the world's highest toll after the United States. Robert Muga has been studying all of this. He's the director of the Igarapé Institute in Rio, and he divides his time between there and Canada. Today, we talk about the devastating toll that COVID has taken in Brazil and what it might take for it to come out of this crisis. Hi, Robert, thank you so much for making the time today. It's a pleasure. Brazil passed this very grim milestone this weekend, over 500,000 deaths. And it's been really grim there for a long time. But there seems to be this incredibly palpable anger now.

And could you tell me a little bit more about these protests that we've been seeing? What we're seeing across Brazil are dozens, if not even hundreds, of protests against Bolsonaro, but also in favor of Bolsonaro, that are really coming to a head. So from Brazil's largest cities like Sao Paulo to many of its smaller towns in the interior in the north, we're seeing people coming out onto the streets in spite of COVID, in spite of a third wave,

to really make their voices heard. Bolsonaro! Bolsonaro! Long live! make their voices heard. And we're seeing this also online as well, with enormous frustrations and anger being expressed on mainstream social media. So we're really seeing the polarization and divisiveness in Brazil that's been characterized in the last 20 months really coming to a head. Right. And you mentioned that there are protests, like pro-Bolsonaro protests as well. And can you tell me a little bit about those? These are often white men,

often evangelicals, people from the middle class, lower class, but also the elite, wrapped in the Brazilian colors of nationalism and patriotism, who are often out there on motorcycles or walking along the main esplanades of the major cities. These are people who've been egged on and incentivised by Jair Bolsonaro from the very beginning of the crisis, in some cases to object to lockdowns, for example, and restrictions or public health measures. So they're often unmasked and very, very vocal and aggressive with their opposition. Right. And you mentioned motorcycles. I've seen images of these, just like hundreds of guys in motorcycles out on the street. You know, I know what this is sound like too much of an obvious question,

but the anti-Bolsonaro protests, can you just tell me like what exactly the people are so angry about, so frustrated about when it comes to Bolsonaro's handling of the COVID-19 crisis? I mean, for more than 20 months, Bolsonaro has denied that this is a serious threat, despite over 500,000 dead. Stop this fussing and whining. How long will you keep crying? We have to face the problems. So, you know, I think people superficially, at least, are deeply frustrated with the fact

this federal government has not only denied or underplayed, but often tried to stymie efforts to adopt more aggressive, preventive health measures to try to stay this crisis. But it's not just the health crisis. It's also the economy. It's also the corruption that people are now seeing, which is mounting again after this president rode into power, suggesting that he might be able to crack down on this. Mayor of Rio de Janeiro, Marcelo Crivella, was arrested at his home and held in custody as part of a corruption investigation. The 63-year-old, ally of President Jair Bolsonaro claimed to be a victim of political persecution. It's also police violence. So what we're seeing is a constellation

of frustrations that are coming together and boiling over. And there's just anger at Bolsonaro, the man who just shows such disdain for human life. And I think people are really, they've had enough. It's our duty to fight for democracy, this protester says. This government is no use to us. It doesn't serve the people and its political project is to kill us. I understand there's, too, an investigation by a Brazilian Senate committee into Bolsonaro's pandemic response. And what have we seen from that so far? that so far? The central claim is that Bolsonaro had refused multiple efforts and treaties by pharmaceutical companies to provide Brazil with vaccines. In fact, there are emails suggesting

that where efforts to try to solicit or provide vaccines were rejected by the federal government. And so he's being accused essentially of criminal negligence in this case, and of not successfully having procured vaccines, which is, I think, one of the big reasons why we're seeing such a catastrophe unfolding right now in Brazil. And can you just paint that picture for me? What kind of damage that we're talking about here? Of course, with lives lost, half a million people, but the economy as well. It's a very grim, historically grim situation in Brazil right now, a country that was already struggling before COVID-19, having just emerged from a multi-year recession. What we see superficially,

at least right now on the ground, is inflation is rising. Productivity has been reduced as a result of just the sheer volume of people who've been infected. You compound this with the worst drought that Brazil's seen in over 90 years. So if you look at Brazil right now, in the wake of COVID, what we're talking about is a lost decade, potentially, whereby we see 8 million people who've lost their jobs, unemployment at almost 15%, the highest we've seen in almost a decade. You see extremely difficult situation for the majority of the population who are working in the informal economy. More than 50% of Brazilians don't

have a job in the formal economy and, you know, so therefore don't have the kind of social safety nets that you or I or others might have if you had a gainful employment. And so, you know, this is my point, I suppose, is that in trying to avoid these economic costs, and by refusing to allow for a nationwide effort or campaign to try to prevent the spread of COVID, Bolsonaro has actually made a bad situation much, much worse. And the response from the Brazilian authorities, from the federal government, has a very limited effect in terms of small amounts of subsidies of about $50 in Canadian terms a month for over 70 million people, which had an important, you could say, smoothing effect, but it didn't address any of these bigger challenges. And what we see now in Brazil for the first time in decades is a crisis of food insecurity. In January, the government suspended the emergency aid, just as infections began to spiral out

of control, forcing new lockdowns. The crisis affected private businesses, which were contributing to charity last year and can no longer afford to do so. With no help from the public sector and no jobs, people in the slums and poor neighbourhoods are literally starving to death. One thing I think is probably worth mentioning here is that we're talking about all the deaths in this country. Thousands of young children have been dying of COVID as well. What really stands out, and I think what's extraordinarily distressing about this, is the death of infants and under five-year-olds. And epidemiologists have been scratching their heads trying to figure out just what is the scope

and scale of the mortality amongst the under five-year-olds. And some people say as many as 2,000 children have died in the last 20 months. And many think this might be an underestimate because of the number of people who are dying of undiagnosed respiratory illnesses. And this is really unusual, right? Because we, you know, one of the narratives of COVID-19 for the last year or two has been that this didn't really impact children as much as adults. And we're seeing in Brazil, you know, as a result of the fact that just the sheer volume of patients has led to this really appalling situation of young children dying, you know, in their beds and unable to see their parents, you know, because parents aren't allowed into the hospital. So, you know, last words over tablets with infants, it's just beyond the pale. It's incredibly tragic. And then, you know, even when you're talking about the estimates on that number, I would imagine even the 500,000 number,

it could be even larger. We talked about how Bolsonaro had basically thrown a wrench in overtures for vaccines, but my understanding is that there are vaccines that are still getting into the country. 11% of Brazilians are now fully vaccinated, but just 29% have received their first dose. And so why is that happening? Just to be clear, Brazil should have been a global leader in vaccines. It routinely deals with tropical diseases ranging from yellow fever to Zika. It has an institute that develops vaccines together with the University of Oxford.

And it's been exporting its medical know-how globally for decades. But I think the single largest reason why Brazil hasn't been able to attain the kind of vaccination rollout that it should have is because of the negligence and, frankly, the outright disruption from Bolsonaro himself. I mean, this is a president who's turned down suppliers. He's castigated the Chinese. He's actively prevented governors and mayors from taking more aggressive action. So this federal negligence, this uncoordinated state response, what it's done is it's led to a kind of patchwork of responses from different states. I mean, Brazil is a continent-sized country with over 26 states and one federal district capital. So you have some states like

Sao Paulo or Minas Gerais, which are big, powerful economic sort of champions and tend to be a little more conservative and much more business oriented. They're taking very aggressive measures. Right. They've really tried to roll out vaccines. They've gone out and procured their own equipment and their own vaccines. But then you have other states like Rio de Janeiro, which everyone knows, but also happens, by the way, to be the president's hometown, which has taken a much more passive approach. I would also imagine, considering the politics, that even if there was suddenly some flood of vaccines, that there would probably be a tremendous amount of vaccine hesitancy or anti-vax sentiment, maybe among Bolsonaro supporters? I think for sure there is some level of hesitancy in Brazil.

I mean, clearly Bolsonaro and his sons and their diehard supporters have decided that this is something they can weather out without vaccines or any form of treatment. But it is important to stress that most Brazilians want to be vaccinated. I mean, this is a country that, for the most part, understands and has experience with vaccines, has a long history of dealing with infectious disease outbreaks and, you know, where there's a great deal of trust in public health officials. So I think that for the most part, the majority, which by the way, coincides with Bolsonaro's popularity ratings, in other words, less than 25% of the population currently support him right now. I suspect the vast majority of the country

would like to get a vaccine if they can get their hands on one. In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household income? That's not a typo, 50%. That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner

create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Cops. And so, Robert, moving forward here, what happens next? I suppose the question I have is, is there a way out of this crisis that doesn't involve tossing Bolsonaro out of office by some means? I fear there may not be an easy way out of this crisis. I mean, the federal elections, the national elections in Brazil are in October 2022. So more than a year from now. And there is as Harold Wilson, you know, former Prime Minister of the UK said, you know, week is a long time in politics. That's a long time. We have many months to go before this election. And I fear that what we're going to be seeing in Brazil is a deepening of polarization and division, not some grand coalition of coming

together. And right now, Bolsonaro, in spite of his low popularity ratings, he's down, but he's by no means out. You know, he has for sure the lowest popularity since being elected in 2018. There is definitely a possibility he could go to jail. And Lula, former President Lula's return, very much makes this a two-horse race. The country's Supreme Court ruled that Judge Sergio Moro, who spearheaded the investigations that brought down the former president, was biased against him. And it comes barely two weeks after the court threw out Lula's old corruption convictions, clearing the way for him to run again for office. Lula himself is extraordinarily popular in the country.

He's galvanizing the left, which had been a little bit fragmented in recent months. But he also has a very strong rejection rate. You know, there are still people who have deep, deep antipathies towards the Labour Party. So what we don't have in Brazil right now is a context where you have a large number of moderate candidates. I mean, these candidates are being squeezed out by these two extremes of the left and the right. We've got dark days ahead, and I fear that it's going to get worse before it gets better. We are now entering a third wave in Brazil, and we're just seeing, I think, the tip of the iceberg of the economic consequences. We have another crisis, which we haven't talked about, which is the Amazon basin, and we're seeing

some of the worst. Yes, yes. We've done this on the show before. It's very dire. Yeah, very, very grim. So we have a dieback scenario. So anyways, I think the only way out, I think right now, frankly, is a new president, a new kind of social compact and another government that is going to be addressing this combined challenge of COVID, the economy, misinformation, and fundamentally the vulnerabilities that are affecting Brazil. I just don't see this current president doing that. And not to state the obvious here, but Brazil's ability to get COVID under control has very

serious ramifications for the rest of the world too, right? Like we know that these dangerous variants come out of places where COVID is rampaging. And there is worry that there could be a more vaccine resistant variant that that could emerge here. I think that's right. It's that this is not a problem. That is to say, the response to the failure to respond to COVID-19 in Brazil is not a problem just for Brazil. It's a deep and dark problem for its neighbors, which have already been affected by the P1 variant, which has come out of Brazil, which is more contagious and potentially more lethal than other strains. into neighboring countries across Latin America, we've already seen the spread of P1 as far north as Canada and well over towards Western Eastern Europe. And it's, you know, of course, in a place where you don't have sufficiently aggressive vaccine interventions and preventive health interventions, you create a perfect accelerant or incubator for the creation of new variants on top of the P1 that will be allowed to fester in this population of 210 million people.

But one final point, which is that we know that these zoonotic diseases and others often emerge from areas that have been cleared in forests as humans move further and further into the hinterland. humans move further and further into the hinterland. Brazil is experiencing 10-year highs in deforestation right now and penetration into the Amazon largely as a result of Bolsonaro's efforts to lessen environmental penalties and accelerate agricultural production and beef production. This is also another context in which diseases can emanate. That is to say, more and more contact with species that are able to transfer these viruses from animal to human. So it's not just the fact that we have a boiling pot of people with the virus in close contact where you can see mutation, but it's also

this relentless pushing into the Amazon to satisfy global markets that I think also represents a real threat. So don't be surprised if we see more variants coming out of Brazil, you know, in the near future. Oh, OK. Robert, thank you for this. This was really, really interesting. It's been a pleasure to listen to you. Thanks for the invitation.

All right. So on Monday, the U.S. government announced that it would donate 55 million COVID-19 vaccine doses to countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. It's the remaining portion of the 80 million shots that the Biden administration has promised to send abroad. The goal is to assist countries like Brazil. The announcement comes as more than half of the U.S. population has had at least one dose of a COVID-19 and over 45 percent are fully vaccinated. All right, that is it for today. Thanks so much for listening and we'll talk to you tomorrow.