Front Burner - How abortion is shaping the U.S. midterms

Episode Date: September 16, 2022

Earlier this week, U.S. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham introduced a bill that would place a federal ban on abortions after 15 weeks. While the bill isn’t believed to have a high chance of passing in the immediate future, it does further crank up the heat around the abortion debate ahead of the November midterm elections. Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade — which protected the constitutional right to an abortion — Democrats have seen a renewed surge in popularity, buoying their hopes of holding onto one or both chambers of Congress in November. But questions remain about whether Democratic wins would actually guarantee greater protections for abortion rights. Today, CBC Washington correspondent Paul Hunter is here to sort through all of this with us.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Jamie Poisson. I've chosen to craft legislation that I think is eminently reasonable in the eyes of the world and, I hope, the American people. In June, when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, it left decisions on how to regulate abortion up to the individual states to decide. how to regulate abortion up to the individual states to decide.

On Tuesday, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham introduced a new bill that would go beyond that by putting in a new law restricting abortion access across the whole country. Here's what I think. I think we should have a law at the federal level that would say after 15 weeks, no abortion on demand, except in cases of rape, incest, to save the life of the mother. Graham says this would put the U.S. in line with the majority of countries in the world. And there is polling to suggest that many Americans feel uncomfortable with the idea of abortion after the first trimester, meaning within the first 13 weeks,

which is actually when the vast majority of abortions are performed. But many scientists say that the central claim here, that at 15 weeks a fetus can feel pain, isn't backed up by evidence. And that many serious medical issues, including those that threaten the life of the fetus, can't be detected until 20 weeks. Graham was confronted by that idea as he was wrapping up his press conference. A woman in the audience named Ashby Beasley stood up and gave the example of what happened to her son. Senator Graham, what would you say to somebody like me who found out that their son had an anomaly

that made him incompatible at life at 16 weeks? I had regular appointments. I did everything right. And at 16 weeks, we found out that our son would likely not live. When he was born, he lived for eight days. He bled from every orifice of his body. But we were allowed to make that choice for him. You would be robbing that choice from those women. What do you say to someone like me? Graham's bill isn't believed to have much chance of passing at this point.

Graham's bill isn't believed to have much chance of passing at this point. But it is adding further heat to the abortion debate ahead of the November midterm elections, where it's believed this could be a deciding issue for many voters. Today, I've got Washington correspondent Paul Hunter with great to have you. Hey, Jamie. Always great to be here. So, look, maybe we could start here. What do you think Lindsey Graham is trying to do here with this bill that he is proposing? bill that he is proposing? I think Republicans broadly are wondering the same thing. I mean, like, you know, what on earth are you thinking, Lindsey Graham, dropping a bomb like that just as the race to the midterms moves into the homestretch, you know, putting the forever

divisive abortion debate front and center once again. Look, the anti-abortion side basically won the lottery back in June with the Supreme Court decision striking down Roe v. Wade. And so now it's as if Graham is saying, let's keep at it. Let's push for more. And the result is outrage, right? I mean, the White House calls it extremism. An op-ed in the New York Times, for example, headlines it as unbelievably cruel. The Washington Post op-ed calls it bone York Times, for example, headlines it as unbelievably cruel. The Washington Post op-ed calls it boneheaded. Cruel because of the implications for millions of American women. Boneheaded because of its implications for Republicans politically. So what might he be trying to achieve? Well, you know, one guess is he's trying to find some sort of middle ground

on this, right? And he thinks there might be political gain from that. Proposing a national ban, right, after 15 weeks would push abortion restrictions in the U.S. significantly further than the Supreme Court, right? Because it'd be nationwide. So that should please anti-abortion voters when Republican candidates go knocking at the doors. But arguably, it doesn't go as far as to necessarily offend moderate Republican voters because it's not an absolute ban. It's not the heartbeat law. It's kind of a middle ground. So that might be what he's going for. And isn't there some validity in that, you think? Because we do know, and I know that polling on abortion is very difficult to parse through,

but we do know that people start to get uncomfortable after the first trimester. And we also know that the vast majority of abortions happen before 15 weeks, like vast majority of abortion. So like, does he have a point here that this is kind of a compromise that maybe might position the Republicans not as the party against abortion that wants to ban abortion, but the party that wants a reasonable restriction around abortion that's in line with public opinion. Yes, but one key aspect of what he's doing here is that he's making it nationwide. And by the way, that contradicts what he himself said just six weeks ago.

The point I'm trying to make is I've been consistent. I think states should decide the issue of marriage and states should decide the issue of abortion. makes this the law in every single state, even states that are broadly, you know, in favor of more access to abortion. And so that is the fear or one of the fears here. And yes, you're right that it's not leaps and bounds, the 15 week mark from where Americans are at, but it is still on the other side of where a lot of Americans are at because of the nature of what happens in the couple of weeks after the 15 week mark. And that's what that's what makes it a problem for a lot of people. Right. And we know he was confronted with that. I think we that we mentioned in the intro at his press conference that a lot of abnormalities aren't aren until the 20-week anatomy scan.

You mentioned before that Republicans are also wondering what he's doing here. Like, tell me more about how they have responded. Like, how are, like, the Mitch McConnells of the world responding to this? Yeah, look, plenty of Republicans would like nothing better than to let the Supreme Court decision work its way through the laws of various states. like nothing better than to let the Supreme Court decision work its way through the laws of various states and, you know, for them to not have to deal with actually talking about it because they want to benefit from the court's ruling and how that pleases the so-called base, Republican voters who strongly oppose abortion, but without having to offend those voters who believe in most Republican policies, but who also believe in a woman's right to choose, right? So, yeah, the Republican leadership has basically freaked out on what Graham has done. You mentioned

Mitch McConnell, right? Senate minority leader, most powerful Republican in the Senate. He's clear. He opposes. In terms of scheduling, I think most of the members of my conference prefer that this be dealt with at the state level. Others have made clear the same thing. They're distancing themselves from Lindsey Graham, who, by the way, is a powerful senator unto himself, not just some junior politician. And what he says and does matter. So it's a big deal that other senior Republicans are kind of gobsmacked by what he's done and are pushing back. I mean, critics might say the whole thing is, it's kind of like a giant game of delicate but phony chess. The party broadly is pro-abortion restrictions, and it wants to capitalize on all the voters who will back them for that single reason. But at the same time, it doesn't want to spike the football on this or be too loud about it because it wants those other voters who oppose restrictions to not think too much about it.

Almost like a nudge, nudge, wink, wink scenario where they want certain voters to kind of inherently know that that's where they want to go. But for others to allow themselves to believe that it won't be too far on that front. And that's where Graham has complicated things. You know, and the McColls of the world are now worried it'll backfire come the midterms in November. Right. And talking about backfiring, is it fair for me to say that we have seen indications, including in red states, that abortion bills like Senator Graham's might actually be fairly risky when they're put on the ballot, like when they're put to the people. 100%. You know, I think the biggest shockwave for Republicans on this came

in Kansas in the summertime when voters in a traditionally conservative, very Trumpy state, not only voted to support abortion access, but did so overwhelmingly. This morning, abortion rights advocates are celebrating after voters in red state Kansas rejected an amendment that would have removed the right to an abortion from the state's constitution. About 60 percent of voters were in favor of preserving abortion rights in Kansas, a state with 350,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats. You know, a shot across the proverbial bow from an unexpected place. I mean, I want to say people could hardly believe it, but of course they could, because, argue many, this is where America is actually at on this issue. I mean, there's a reason so many came out to demonstrate in front of the Supreme Court

when the Dobbs decision came down in June. Somebody came out to demonstrate in front of the Supreme Court when the Dobbs decision came down in June. Republicans are out of step on this, goes the argument. And then state senators in South Carolina, a conservative state controlled by Republicans, Lindsay Graham's state, by the way, just this month voted against a proposal for a near total ban on abortions, meaning Republican state senators voted against it. That's huge. Now, in the aftermath of Roe v. Wade, South Carolina state senators rejected a ban on almost all abortions during a special session. Instead, they voted to further restrict current laws governing the procedure. This is not everything that I wanted, but. But I do think that it is something the pro-life community ought to be proud of. But don't get me wrong, right? The flip side is that a great

number of states have indeed enacted or are in the process of enacting laws making it harder to get abortions in those places because there remains enough support for that in certain states. You know, that is to say that the fallout from Dobbs is real and it is happening and abortion access in those places is shrinking. But to see places such as Kansas and South Carolina move in the opposite direction is remarkable. I know that this is something you've been hitting on since we began this conversation, but I think it's probably worth me asking you outright. In the early part of this year, I saw articles predicting that the midterm elections could be like a bloodbath for Democrats, right? And, and now we've seen those

tides change. And how does abortion appear to have changed those predictions? Like what what role does does that have? Yeah, bloodbath. Annihilation is another word. George W. Bush called his first midterms a thumping. Obama called his a shellacking. Look, presidents tend not to fare well in their first midterms historically. People like to point fingers and it generally gets aimed at the party, the president, especially when things aren't going so well, whether that's rational or not. especially when things aren't going so well, whether that's rational or not. Abortion is a potential wild card this time around, and certainly Democrats would like to frame it as the reason to get up and get out and vote, that this is what's at stake, and only by strengthening Democrat control of Capitol Hill can abortion rights be protected. But this has energized Democrats in a degree I think many might not have expected. There are numbers out recently looking at voters who are registering for the first time in this cycle. And the surge in women registering is remarkable, outnumbering men in places by wide margins and notably doing so in conservative states and in what we call battleground

states. So that would seem to be a giant indicator this is having an effect and will have an effect in November. The numbers spiked after the Supreme Court decision and they're all over, like they're literally all over the map. Kansas, we talked about. Idaho, Wisconsin, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Ohio. I mean, the list goes on. And in all these places, the numbers of newly registered voters favors women over men. It's quite stunning, actually. Yeah, yeah. I also don't want to assume that this entire election is solely about abortion, right? Do you think there are other factors that could be making Democrats feel less pessimistic right now, like less like a bloodbath is headed their way? Well, yes.

Though, you know, again, Democrats still have a very tough road ahead of them, right, to be fair. But, you know, gas prices are down. That matters. Joe Biden has had some legislative wins. Signed and sealed the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, something that many thought would not happen just a few weeks ago, definitely not a few months ago, is now the law of the land. President Biden is expected to make an announcement today on federal student loan relief. Reports say that the president will take steps to forgive up to $10,000 in federal student loan debt for borrowers making less than $125,000 a year. Some of his key legislations actually come to pass. COVID continues to kind of, you know, fade in the rearview mirror a little

bit. Those are all positives for Democrats. And meanwhile, there's this, you know, so, you know, fade in the rearview mirror a little bit. Those are all positives for Democrats. And meanwhile, there's this, you know, they call it magification of the other side. A number of Republican candidates winning nominations who are election-denying, you know, conspiracy theory-promoting, MAGA hat- hat wearing Trumpians. Democrats clap their hands every time Republicans nominate one of those, including just this week in New Hampshire. I am so humbled and honored to be considered the Republican nominee for my home district.

Caroline Leavitt calls what happened at the polls yesterday a blowout victory. Levitt calls what happened at the polls yesterday a blowout victory. Because they know the nomination process is largely driven by the so-called base, while the elections themselves, at least on the Senate side, are determined by the broader population. And Democrats believe voters broadly will be turned off by the MAGA candidates. And so thus it would go Democrat instead. Democrats, even like they themselves in some cases are even supporting these MAGA candidates, to call them that, to get nominated. It's in a gamble that it'll help, you know, their candidate on election day. Sounds counterintuitive, right? But it's a bet they're taking.

That said, be careful what you wish for, right? I mean, nobody really took Donald Trump seriously in 2016 and look what happened, right? Yeah, exactly. thinking that voters will, you know, cast the right judgment. But the power of Trump in this country is still a very real thing. Like, look at the fate of Liz Cheney in Wyoming, right? I mean, she opposed Trump. Staunch, staunch, staunch conservative. And then she paid a price for it.

A crushing defeat for Liz Cheney at the hands of her Trump-backed opponent. Cheney, who sits on the House January 6th committee, has been the former president's most outspoken Republican critic. Many believe standing up against Trump may have cost her that seat. There remain great swaths in this country where MAGA still rules the day. But it's, for the moment anyway, it's a gamble, certainly in certain places, that Democrats are not only willing to take, but actively taking it. Tell me more about this MAGAfication trend and the risk that it has for Republicans, too. Yeah, well, there is a risk, a big one, that it may split the party itself, right? I mean, not all Republicans are MAGA, and the more moderate Republicans increasingly are wondering if this is the party for them. But where do they go is the problem, right? And what is the result? A split party? Do they stay home on voting day?

Do they leave the party? It's kind of an existential problem for moderate Republicans. What is the Republican Party? Is it turning into MAGA? Is it Trump's party? Absolutely. And if it is, what does that mean? The more MAGA candidates that get nominated, the more Liz Cheney's who are effectively excommunicated, the more moderate Republicans wonder where all of this is going for them. It's a giant risk for the party and no one knows what the end game is.

And then still, this party, it seems to me, since the last election has really thrown in behind Trump. So why? They don't seem to be distancing themselves that much right now, right? Is that fair? Yes. And they've seen what happens if you do, you know, Liz Cheney again. I think part of the reason is it gets back to what I was saying about the base, you know, largely turning out for the nomination process. If you can't get nominated, you won't win. Right. And so if you don't bow to Trump, if you don't please the MAGA crowd, they won't nominate you. And then you can't do anything. And then you're stuck. stuck. And that's the kind of conundrum you're in. So you may disagree with Trump, but you want to play to him so that you don't get like locked out.

And then you can just take it from there once you're elected, goes the theory. Yeah, it's a hard needle. It is. Very, very much. Very much. And then, of course, as you said, this is why the Democrats love this, because the more MAGA people they think can get voted in these primaries, then they have to pivot to a more general election. And obviously, they see this as an opportunity to just start stealing more moderate. Yeah.

Exactly. And that they'll be rejected by the electorate at large. to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years.

I've talked to millions of people and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household income? That's not a typo. 50%. That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Cops. In terms of who's currently projected to take over Congress in November,

our listeners will maybe remember there's like a 50-50 split in the Senate with the vice president as a tie-breaking vote. In the House, there are currently 221 Democrats, 212 Republicans. So the Dems have like a very small lead there. But what are the latest predictions about who's more likely to win each chamber? And what would that even mean practically in the aftermath? Well, the latest predictions, all of which will no doubt, A, be wrong, and B, flip-flop multiple times before Election Day, have it that Democrats may actually sneak through and retain control of the Senate, but that Republicans would squeak into control of

the House. And then once again, governing the United States gets ever more complicated. Not that it's been easy for Joe Biden, even with, you know, Democrats fully in charge of Capitol Hill, but with Republicans potentially on the House side, given the near tribalism that exists nowadays in U.S. politics, it would all but paralyze the Biden agenda in the second half of his term. And by the way, one side effect of Republicans taking the House would be, you know, say goodbye to the January 6th committee if the work there hasn't wrapped up by then. And hello to any number of investigations targeting Democrats that Republicans would open. But, you know, politics in this country continues to be very

much an us versus them thing. The divide, and you and I've talked about this many times before, the divide, it just widens and it deepens. Aside from the specifics of abortion, Democrats want their supporters to understand. If you want anything done, get out and vote. Because if the party loses control of the Hill, everything Joe Biden still wants to do effectively grinds to a halt until the next election cycle, the presidential in 2024. criticisms of the Democrats has been that abortion is an issue they're really good at campaigning on, they're really good at fundraising on, but once they're in power, they have done little to guarantee that right, right? Like Obama had a super majority. They didn't codify Roe. And we saw a surge of this opinion after the Supreme Court overturned Roe. So, you know, if they managed to do fairly well in these midterms,

in part because they motivated their voters on the issue of abortion, what happens after? Exactly. Right. I mean, you know, but look, the fact is not all Democrats are lockstep on abortion rights. It's a complicated issue in this country, even for many on the left, especially in states that are divided about it. And that's kind of what makes this a never-ending issue in the U.S. But you're right. They would have the power, in theory, to codify, to entrench it in law, a theoretical power they've had, as you note, for some time and have failed to act. Joe Biden is pushing for this, right? Some Democrats have pushed back. I'm looking at you, Joe Manchin. As we reported, growing concern among Democrats at the Supreme Court will soon overturn Roe v. Wade, led them to try to pass federal legislation that would guarantee abortion rights

and prevent recent state restrictions from taking effect. That effort fell short in the U.S. Senate today, as Democrat Joe Manchin joined all Republicans in voting against the Women's Health Protection Act. If voters do turn out on this issue in November and then Democrats fail to entrench protections in law, one risk is that voters would have a right to then wonder if they'll ever do anything on this that matters. And then, you know, to carry it forward, why would they bother to then turn out in 2024, which is already shaping up to be one of the most consequential presidential elections in history, if, as many still expect, Donald Trump throws his hat in the ring. So the

stakes on this are high, like from pretty much every way you look at it. Yeah. Paul, I feel like every time I talk to you, we're never like, oh, that's a low stake situation happening in U.S. politics. But it's true. I mean, it matters, right? And it matters in so many different ways. And it's a very complicated country on all of the issues that you and I have talked about, Jamie. Yeah. But it's what makes complicated country on all of the issues that you and I have talked about, Jamie.

Yeah. But it's what makes it so fascinating. Yeah. And the world watches this place to see where it's going to go. And there are no clear-cut answers. And that's what makes it interesting. But it's what continues to keep the stakes as high as they are. Paul, always a pleasure.

Thank you. Thank you, Jamie. All right, that is all for this week. Front Burner was produced this week by Imogen Burchard, Derek Vanderwyk, Ali Janes, Matt Cameron, Lauren Donnelly, and Simi Bassey, who is leaving us this week for other shows, but hopefully she will be back with us very, very soon. Our sound design was by Matt Cameron, who did an incredible job this week on our two-parter on Pierre Polyev. So thank you so much, Matt and Sam McNulty.

Our music is by Joseph Shabison. Our executive producer is Nick McCabe-Locos and I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening and we'll see you on Monday. Poisson. Thanks so much for listening, and we'll see you on Monday.