Front Burner - How the midterms could shape U.S. politics for years

Episode Date: November 2, 2022

On Tuesday, the U.S. holds its midterm elections. That means all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, as are about a third of the Senate's seats. These midterms are significant. It's the first big round of elections since Joe Biden became president, since rioters stormed the Capitol and since Roe v. Wade was overturned. The results could impact American policy for years to come. Today, CBC Washington correspondent Paul Hunter talks about some of the tight races, and what makes them so consequential.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Jamie Poisson. Next week, the U.S. holds its midterm elections. That means that all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for grabs, as are about a third of the Senate seats, a bunch of governorships,

not to mention state legislatures, local councils, school boards. These midterms are significant. It's the first big round of elections since Joe Biden became president, since January 6th rioters stormed the Capitol, since Roe versus Wade was overturned. And the results could impact U.S. policy for years to come, at least to hear Biden tell it. So today, our friend in Washington, Paul Hunter, is here to talk about some of the tight races and what makes them so consequential. Hey, Paul, how's it going? Good, Jamie, how are you? Great. It is always a pleasure to talk to you, especially right now.

There's so many interesting things going on. I know I teased at this a bit in the introduction, but set the stage for me. Why are these midterms significant? Oh, they do say that every time there's an election in this country, don't they? The most consequential in a generation. And the main reason politicians say that is to strike fear in the hearts of voters so that they actually get out and go vote. But I also think it's fair to say Joe Biden has a point

when he says that this time. These midterms are significant for a number of reasons. Right now, Democrats control Capitol Hill, both the House and the Senate, and, you know, obviously they control the White House. If they lose control over the House or Senate or both, it's a big deal. I mean, here's the fallout potentially for Joe Biden. Number one, say goodbye to getting almost anything passed in the second half of his term in office.

Republicans will try to stymie him at every corner. They have said so. They've made that clear. And they will have the power to be successful at that. Two, judicial appointments. Say goodbye to those, Joe Biden, including, by the way, if one were to come up, sorry to say this, at the Supreme Court, because somebody would have to die, I guess, that would become much more complicated for Joe Biden. Three, investigations galore. The January 6th committee would be disbanded. Republicans would open their own examinations into, let's say, Hunter Biden's laptop, the withdrawal from Afghanistan, Anthony Fauci's handling the pandemic. And by the way, they'll push to impeach Joe Biden probably multiple times. Maybe, you know, on the premise he put U.S. security at risk because of the southern border, that kind of thing. And four, all of that weakens Democrats

in the two years leading up to the next presidential. I mean, if Biden runs again, he'd have little to campaign on because of all that stymie. Washington will have been in disarray for two years. And one beneficiary of that, Jamie, would be one Donald Trump. Watching all of it from Mar-a-Lago,

who may well make his final decision on whether to run again based on how things play out November 8th. So yeah, significant. Yeah, fair to say that this one actually is pretty high stakes. With all these races across the country, I imagine it might be hard

to nail down the big issues that are being campaigned on because they differ, obviously, from place to place. But are there common themes you're seeing that are really resonating with voters this time around? Yeah, it's interesting that you put it that way, too, because, you know, often we journalists, we look for like the kind of micro story to tell the macro picture. But especially with the midterms, it really does depend where you are in terms of what's in play and what might sway your vote from one candidate or one party to the other. And look, I know it's

a cliche, but everything I've heard from voters is economy, right? I mean, sometimes it's Biden's handling of the economy. Sometimes it's inflation slash economy. Basically, it's that people are hurting and they want someone to blame, twas ever thus for governments since the dawn of time in politics. Biden and Democrats are the targets this time. What do you think about our economy? It's weak as hell. Joe Biden killed the economy and we've all witnessed the murder. Biden and the Democrat Congress created the worst inflation in 50 years.

What is the number one issue facing your state? Definitely the economy. The economy, gas, food prices. It's crazy. one issue facing your state? Definitely the economy. Economy, gas, food prices. It's crazy. Who do you hold responsible? Our people in charge right now. It wasn't like that before this. It wasn't like that before Biden took over. Crime is certainly talked about. Republicans absolutely are pushing that issue. Likewise, the so-called culture wars, making air quotes as I say that. You know, I've been in Republican rallies where the thrust, not just tangentially, but the

thrust of the rallying cry from the candidate on stage is the threat of woke public schools grooming children to feel guilty about American racial strife or how transgender identification is a threat to the American way of life, that kind of thing. And I'll tell you, it brings cheers, certainly at these Republican rallies, when candidates say that they'll push back against that. I'm sick and tired of them wanting to teach CTR in school, critical race theory. Can you tell me what that means? We're Americans. We're not black. We're not white. We're American, we're all mutts, I hate to tell you that.

So when the Department of Education says there's gonna be a day when there's no genders, and we're gonna teach our kids from age three till their 12th grade about the fluidity, I say, let the parents get involved. I want parents to know that's happening and get them involved so they can tell their kids. It's time to finally and completely smash the radical left's corrupt education cartel.

It's crazy what's going on. Our children are captives to unhinge Marxist educators. Where do they come from? Who are pushing inappropriate sexual, racial, and political material in our children from the youngest possible age. But when you ask individual voters after the rally ends, it tends to come back to the economy. You know, it's fair to say, I should add, that four months ago, Democrats were betting the issue that would drive voters to the polls would be abortion. Yeah, we talked about that on the show. We did, yeah. And we predicted that it would be the the or certainly a key issue in the midterms. It hasn't quite turned out that way. You know, a lot of people thought the anger that we saw back in June would carry on. And it hasn't because economy, because stuff costs more, because people are hurting and because time and time again, that is what moves voters more than anything else. Pretty much every election is doing it this time. And that's a big problem for Biden. At this point, what are the polls saying? And I know they can be very wrong,

but what are they saying in terms of which way the Senate and the House might actually go here? Yeah, you know, broadly speaking, the view on the House of Representatives side is that it would take a miracle for Democrats to hang on to control there. Republicans need to pick up only, I think, five seats from where they stand now out of more than 400 total. And there's little doubt that

that'll happen. The Senate is a different story. Democrats were in a pretty good position going into this cycle, as they call it here. But Republicans have gained a lot of ground in recent weeks. And there are a number of what you call toss-ups right now when you look at the polling numbers. And in the Senate, it's as tight as it can be, 50-50, right, with Kamala Harris being the tiebreaker on votes where needed, which is why Democrats currently have control. But Republicans need to flip just a single Democrat Senate seat to undo that control. And so all eyes are on some of the very tight races in a handful of states. The big three, in my view, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia. Let's dig into a few of those tight, tight Senate races because there are some very

interesting characters in them, too. Let's do Georgia first, where I know you spent some time recently. The Senate race there is between Republican Herschel Walker and Democrat Raphael Warnock. And who are these two? Herschel Walker. Even if you're not a sports fan, you've probably heard of the guy, a god in Georgia, former college football star there, went on to NFL fame, etc. But a complicated candidate, right? He once put a gun to his wife's head.

He is anti-abortion, but has, it seems, paid for abortions with women he'd impregnated. I've kept this to myself for 30 years. I protected him. And I wanted this to remain private. I say that's a lie and I've moved on and they want me to play these guessing games and all this, but I'm not. I'm not into that. He casts doubt on the science of climate change and evolution.

At one time, science said man came from apes. Did it not? That's when you go to the science. Every time I read or hear that, I think to myself, you just didn't read the same Bible I did. Well, this is what's interesting, though. If that is true, why are there still apes? Think about it. His own son, Christian, famously called him out in a viral Twitter video for being an absentee father for all of his various children with various women. Hello, family values people, as he puts it. He has four kids, four different women, wasn't in the house raising one of them. He was out having sex with other women.

Do you care about family values? And yet, Herschel Walker might win, right? Voters I spoke with in Georgia say he's being redeemed. He's being treated for his mental incapacities. What they don't say is what you kind of sense a lot of voters think, which is what they really want here is control of the Senate, if you're a Republican, and he's the guy that they've got to vote for if they want that.

There's a win-at-all-costs kind of mentality. Strategic. Exactly. You know, there was a conservative radio host who said, look, it doesn't matter if Herschel Walker, he could have aborted baby eagles, she said. Control of the Senate is what matters here. I am concerned about one thing and one thing only at this point. So I don't care if Herschel Walker paid to abort endangered baby eagles. I want control of the Senate. And so there's Herschel Walker. Raphael Warnock, you mentioned, a pastor in the church where Martin Luther King once espoused his preaching. The vote is a sacred thing.

Your ballot is a bloodstained ballot. By all means, use it and make sure everybody you know uses it. He is pro-expanding health care, pro-access to abortions, pro-same-sex marriage. The first African-American ever elected from the state of Georgia, southern state, into the U.S. Senate. Voters rewarded him for all of the above, but now he might well lose because control of the Senate. Really, it's down to who can get the most people out of their seats to get out and cast those ballots. Let's do Pennsylvania. My personal favorite, you mentioned Pennsylvania, for the colorful characters, Dr. Oz, Mehmet Oz, who people will likely remember from daytime television, Oz, who people will likely remember from daytime television, and John Fetterman, like a six foot eight tall former mayor who also served as the state's lieutenant governor. And what's going on

in that race? You know, midterms are one of these things that I think a lot of people just don't get, right? Like what's up with elections all the time? How come only some of the senators get, you know, Biden's not on the ballot, but he sort of is, all that kind of stuff. And sometimes I think eyes can glaze over when you hear the word midterms. But then you get a race like what's going on in Pennsylvania and you think, okay, this is interesting. So yeah, Mehmet Oz, or as Democrats would say, New Jersey's Mehmet Oz running in Pennsylvania. He is trying to look working class by talking about the price of chopped veggies at the grocery store and calling them crudités. My wife wants some vegetables for crudités, right?

So here's a broccoli. That's two bucks. Not a ton of broccoli there. Here's some asparagus. That's four dollars. Now running for Republicans in that very important state, right? Against John Fetterman, he of the hoodie and the arm tattoos.

In PA, we call this a veggie tray. And if this looks anything other than a veggie tray to you, then I am not your candidate. And I'm serious. And it's a tight race, right? And the story that has been talked about lately on this is that Fetterman had that stroke some months back, and he is recovering well, but he has difficulty speaking comprehensively,

which was evidenced at that debate that they had, after which Fetterman was mocked by some conservative pundits mercilessly. But last night in the Pennsylvania Senate debate, John Fetterman knocked himself out the second he opened his mouth. Hi, good night, everybody. I'm running to serve Pennsylvania.

It only got worse from there. Good evening and welcome to Tucker Carlson's night. Good night, everybody. But he seems to have come out on the other end okay, right? Which, by the way, just back to Georgia for a second. The take on Fetterman, again, by conservative pundits, is in contrast to how it's playing out with Republicans in Georgia, who seem to want to accept that Herschel Walker has recovered from his mental health issues that led him, he says, to put a

gun to his wife's head, among other things. But in Pennsylvania, Republicans want to believe that while Fetterman apparently has no comprehension issues, it is merely a residual speech challenge that will improve. But Republicans say he's unfit for office. It's part and parcel of the kind of nature of politics in this country these days. All that matters is stuff that makes your candidate win and the other candidate lose. Everything else is needless detail. But it's a fascinating race in Pennsylvania. Yeah. Is that resonating with voters,

like these attacks that Fetterman isn't fit for the job? He is ahead in the polls, which is the only measure of that at this point. I don't mean to be cliche, but we'll see how things play out on Tuesday. You know, some people said that he maybe should have avoided that debate

and just sort of taken the hit for not showing up because it was going to provide fodder to those who would take the ugly route and point fingers at him as incompetent on that basis. And, you know, to your point, will voters see the ugliness as a negative for Republicans? Yeah, or reward him for it, maybe. Yeah. Exactly. We'll find out Tuesday.

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the memoir Hillbilly Elegy, which was, of course, made into an Oscar-nominated movie starring Glenn Close. You've got to decide. You want to be somebody or not. I think he's sort of an interesting figure here because he was for a time a conservative celebrity critic of Donald Trump. He called Trump reprehensible. His ideas immoral and absurd. And yet he has really changed his tune quite a bit.

And what do you make of his candidacy? Funny how that works, hey? Yeah. Hey. Yeah, J.D. Vance is an interesting case, right? Classic example, by the way, of how name recognition matters, right? Hello, Dr. Oz. Hello, Herschel Walker.

But yeah, he's also an example of those who've decided the path to political victory in this country involves kissing the ring of Donald Trump or other acts of fealty, as we heard from Trump. And then the New York Times did a fake story today, big front page, that J.D. wasn't sure if he wanted my support. J.D. is kissing my ass. He wants my support. I'm 18 points up. Once a Trump critic, now a vocal supporter who may ride Trump's support of him to a seat in the Senate from Ohio. I mean, you know, this has been one of the questions that's dogged Republicans in the post-Trump era, if we can say we're in that, and obviously the jury's out, but do you need Trump's support to win? And what happens if he doesn't endorse you, right? Truth is, it's a mixed bag. You know, there's been some success in Georgia prior to these midterms with Georgian Republicans who pushed back against Trump, finding that that didn't end their political careers.

But at the same time, there remains this belief, seem afraid to offend the guy, which likely has the effect with Trump of making him continue to feel powerful and important and loved and desired by voters as he considers 2024. You know, Trump may or may not still have real sway with the electorate in this country. That's another thing we'll find out, I guess, or at least get a taste of on Tuesday. But to date, yeah, Vance and others sure seem to believe that he does. And with Vance likely to win in Ohio, it says voters don't mind either. It was a 180-degree turn he took on Trump, and he may well ride that to victory. Yeah. His challenger, Tim Ryan, has certainly gone after him for it. You were calling Trump America's Hitler. Then you kissed his ass. It is true. And then you kissed his ass and then he endorsed you. And you said he's the greatest president of all time.

Speaking of Trump, you were mentioning before some of the issues that we're hearing people campaign on, politicians campaign on, pocketbook issues, cost of living, culture war stuff. But I wonder if we could spend a minute talking about what we're hearing from candidates about an issue that wouldn't normally register, which is the outcome of the last presidential election. To me, this is the most consequential aspect of these midterms. The most consequential aspect in a very consequential midterms. Of a very consequential midterms, because there remain, and we've talked about this before, there remain countless Americans, effectively all of them Republicans, and really we're talking MAGA people, who still believe the election was stolen, right? January 6th is still a part of almost every political conversation in this country.

Talk of civil war looming is not fantasy. There are a lot of very smart people in this country who emphasize that is the path upon which this country is now sliding. path upon which this country is now sliding. And so what you have possibly about to unfold next Tuesday is a whack of Republicans who reinforce that the election was stolen, who support everything Trump has said about that. And these people may well be elected into government positions of serious influence on Tuesday. Remember all the Republicans who stood up to Trump, right? The officials in Georgia who did not bend when Trump said, find me 11,000 votes. You know, at the state level in these midterms, because there's all kinds of elections going

on, there are candidates for governor, for secretaries of state, the people who set the rules for elections and who govern elections going forward, who are fully on side with Trump on the election denying peace. running, and if it's close, or maybe even if it's not close, that these people who may well be elected on Tuesday will bow to Trump's whims and overturn, that they will do his bidding. This is serious stuff, right? Remember, there is no body in the U.S., like there is with Elections Canada, that sets the rules for all. It is a state-by-state process, and voters are thus not only deciding whether to mark their X next to election deniers, The expectation is that in many cases they'll win. It doesn't bode well for the next presidential, no matter what the outcome. And that's the thing, right? Because, you know, for all intents and purposes, the race for the White House in 2024

begins as soon as the midterm dust settles. So what might be left going into that? as soon as the midterm dust settles. So what might be left going into that? Effectively government paralysis, a weakened Biden administration, an emboldened Donald Trump, empowered election deniers, and per what happened at the Pelosi residence,

continuing violence. It's a sobering way to look at what may play out on Tuesday night, but many would say it is a realistic one. And when they say that there is a threat to the U.S. democratic process, they're not kidding. This is a real thing that's happening. And the next step, one way or the other, comes Tuesday. All right. Paul, thank you so much for this. Jamie, it's always a pleasure. All right. That's all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.