Front Burner - In Ukraine: a popular president, a less popular war

Episode Date: March 1, 2024

After two years of leading a country at war, Ukraine’s president remains popular. But as support for the fight wavers both inside and outside the country, Volodymyr Zelensky faces a new set of high-stakes challenges.Does demoting a popular general signal a shift in military strategy? Will international allies deliver the support Zelensky says he needs? If not can he negotiate a popular end peace?Today we’re joined by Tim Mak, founder of the Kyiv-based publication The Counteroffensive.For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcriptsTranscripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.

Happy Holidays! I'm Frank Cappadocia, Dean of Continuous Professional Learning at Humber Polytechnic, and I'd like you to set a goal for 2025 to sharpen your skills and get promoted. Register for a professional designation, micro-credential, or certificate with Humber's Continuous Professional Learning and ignite your career journey this new year. Our experts deliver accelerated learning from resilience-based leadership to electric vehicle fundamentals in learning options that work with your ambitious lifestyle. Adapt, evolve, and excel. Go to humber.ca slash cpl to get started. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Jamie Poisson.

Good morning, Ukrainians. Currently, there are a lot of games appearing on the Internet. Like that, I'm asking our army to put down arms and evacuate. So I am here. We are not putting down arms. We will be defending our country because our weapon is truth. And our truth is that this is our land, our country, our children. And we will defend all of this. Glory to Ukraine.

That was Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky on the streets of Kyiv two years ago this week in a proof-of-life style selfie video. Russia's invasion of Ukraine had just begun. And at the time, the U.S. offered to get Zelensky somewhere safer amid fears he would be assassinated. To which Zelensky reportedly replied, I need ammunition, not a ride. That act of defiance and call for arms, well, it worked. In the months following the invasion, the U.S. pledged billions of dollars in weapons. They've sent helicopters, anti-aircraft missiles, tanks, drones.

And Zelensky was compared to a modern-day Winston Churchill. At first, it seemed like Russia's defeat was embarrassingly imminent. 79 days into the war in Ukraine, and there are new claims of major Russian setbacks and loss of life in the East. It comes as the British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss says Vladimir Putin is humiliating himself on the world stage. But as the invasion enters its third year, that's no longer the case. The highly anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive has largely ground down due to a stalemate with neither side making much progress. Russians invading armies claiming still more territory

as Ukraine's army waits for more aid from America. Why then has Zelensky sacked his extremely popular top war general, the biggest shakeup in military brass since the invasion? How do Ukrainians feel about their comedian-turned-president-turned-war-hero now? And is peace a viable political option for Zelensky? Tim Mack is here with me now to answer those questions. He's founder of the Counteroffensive, a Keefe-based publication, and they have been covering the war. Hi, Tim. Thank you so much for coming on to FrontBurner. Hey there. It's a real pleasure. Thank you.

It's a pleasure to have you. So I want to start by getting a sense of this general who was fired by Zelensky, Valery Zelushny. And up until recently, he was the commander in chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And can you just paint a picture for me of just how popular he was among Ukrainians and why? There's like one factoid, I think, that speaks volumes about his popularity, which is that he's, as far as public polling goes, he's the only person in Ukraine with a higher approval rating and public trust than Zelensky himself. So this is obviously someone who has a lot of esteem from the Ukrainian public. He is considered, you know, a military officer that helped stem the tide of bleeding in those early critical days of the war, who pushed

helped push back the Russians in and around Kiev. Ukrainian troops are proving to be a tough underdog, clawing back territory from Russia around Kiev, retaking a town east of the capital. And Ukrainian officials say the Kyiv suburb of Irpin, where Russia launched one of its earliest and most notorious attacks on civilians. And who's been instrumental in clearing the Kharkiv region, for example, using Ukrainian troops to push Russian forces back. Ukraine appears to have won the battle for its second biggest city, Kharkiv. Russia has failed in its efforts to encircle the city and now appears to be focused

on withdrawing its troops safely across the border. So he's really popular in the public sphere, but more importantly, or perhaps as importantly, he's extremely popular on the front lines among soldiers who hold this general as the military officer they most trust. I think this dismissal would not be appropriate now, because in the field of battle, you do not change commanders. Talking about his popularity in the public sphere, I read there are portraits of him in bars and restaurants. That's true. I think it's a reflection of Ukrainian society that they do a lot of

portraits of people, both modern people and historic people in this kind of Eastern Orthodox style, right? Like if you go in Kiev, there's like a temple to there's the Church of St. Elon where, you know, Elon Musk is like on the wall in a portrait of in a portrait as if he were a saint. Right. So so as a joke sometimes or as a real kind of gesture of veneration, political leaders and in this case a general, it's part of the kind of cultural look at particular figures and their popularity. So given his popularity amongst regular citizens and also the rank and file, I'm just trying to figure out then why he was fired by Zelensky, right? How did that come about? He was fired by Zelensky, right? How did that come about? Well, the official government position is that he wasn't fired. He was kind of shuffled around, reassigned, and he's now an advisor. But, you know, a lot of this conversation about his removal comes after Zelensky made this classic political mistake, which is to tell the truth when it's not in alignment with the government's messaging.

And so a few months ago, Zaluzhny told The Economist magazine that the war had reached a stalemate. General Zaluzhny is especially popular amongst the rank and file, struggling to hold the line in the face of greater Russian firepower, not least because they agree with him about the need for rapid, immediate, large mobilization. The mobilization is necessary because we don't have enough people. The enemy has a great advantage over us in the number of soldiers. And this is obviously something that's reflective of a lot of soldiers on the front lines

and what they're saying back home. But it wasn't in line with what the government wanted to portray. President Zelensky has once again insisted that this war is not at a stalemate. But up and down that front line, Ukrainian and Russian troops are locked in bitter and bloody battles, often over a few miles of territorial gain. And that created a lot of tension between the military side and the elected political side, including Zelensky. That if you ask Zelensky today, and he has been asked, is it an estalement? He takes a much more optimistic approach when it comes to the situation on the battlefield. And he's not willing to concede that point.

You know, on the 24th of February, the world gave us three days. Some European countries who really believed in us, they said one month. But now it's almost two years. Now initiative in our hands. Another reason is that because of the current battlefield situation, the military has proposed mobilizing an additional 500,000 people, half a million people. And this is obviously, this is a military request, and not one that really takes into consideration the potential political impact of that. And, you know, Ukrainians have already been struggling now through more than two years of war. And the idea that half a million more people need to be mobilized, not particularly popular.

And so that tension probably contributed to the current state of play as well. After two years of war, Ukraine is desperately searching for new soldiers, needed to relieve those exhausted on the front line. The problem is people have lost all motivation. I think it's because they're scared of dying. Videos are circulating on social media showing forced recruitment. This clip shows a man being bundled into a car by three soldiers. He's put someone else in charge, right? A guy named Oleksandr Sirski,

who I understand has led Ukraine's ground forces since 2019. And he's now the new head of Ukraine's armed forces. And so did he do that, you think, to address some of the concerns that you just brought up? Like, what was the motivation there? Well, Zelensky stated motivation is, hey, we're entering a new phase in the war, and we need to switch things up. It's not about surnames, and even less so, not about politics. This is about the system of our army, about management in the armed forces of Ukraine

and about exposing commanders of this war to combat experience. Every soldier, every sergeant and every officer who sees the front understands what decisions are needed. But obviously, if you have a general that is more popular than the elected side, maybe a political risk and isn't, you know, totally more popular than the elected side, maybe a political risk, and isn't, you know, totally in step with the political messaging, you can't help but think that that contributed to the removal of Zelushny. And so there's not really anyone that you can find, really, if you talk to any soldiers on the front lines, that says, oh, you know, I'm totally

excited about this change, because Zelushny was so venerated. He was so beloved by frontline troops. You know, from everything that I can tell, you hear soldiers say like, look, replacing Zoluzhny was like shooting ourselves in the foot. There wasn't really like a strong need to do it. And it really does hit the morale of folks. But there's also the sense from the political class and political officials in Kyiv that this sort of thing was necessary in order to keep everyone aligned and working in the same direction and on the same page from a messaging standpoint. Tim, we're just talking about the soldiers. Could you just tell me a little bit more about what kind of conditions they're fighting in right now? What's it like for them?

Well, I think conversations with the folks that I've known for about two years has been, you know, they've been about as pessimistic as I've seen them before. The fighting conditions are no joke. Trench warfare scarred the continent of Europe a century ago and more before Russia invaded Ukraine. It was terrifying in the First World War and so it is again in Ukraine. Russian soldiers on the front line in the Kharkiv region

are being struck down by a mystery mouse fever. The symptoms of this seem to include severe headache, rashes and bleeding in the eyes. Ukraine is famous for this very particular kind of mud. It's very nutrient rich, which is great for the agricultural industry here. But it's like this mud that reaches out and grabs your foot and pulls you down into the trenches or on the fields or wherever you're walking about. And I use, I mentioned that, right, because not only is a strategic situation really difficult, having to give up Bakhmut and withdraw from Avdiivka, these cities in eastern Ukraine in the Donbass that have been fiercely contested and Ukrainians have recently had to withdraw from. But the day-to-day is just exhausting. It tugs on the soul. It's really very hard. And what I'm

seeing is a lot of people who have now been going through this full speed for more than two years, reaching, if not their limit, close to their limit. It's a really difficult situation that you have this trench warfare that's happening where you're never really safe at any given time. They keep attacking our positions. It's very hard on our infantry. They keep coming, regardless of the weather. And in all this mud, the fields are covered with corpses. You know, it's hard to pull off an optimistic view when you're in the cold and the wet like that.

Zelushny, you know, now that he is no longer heading the armed forces, is there a scenario in which, you know, especially given how you said he's more popular than Zelensky, he poses a challenge to Zelensky's rule or like that he could become a real political challenger to him? Well, there are a couple things here, right? So now we're getting into the realm of prediction and speculation. And, you know, the first thing you have to contend with in this realm is that under the Ukrainian constitution, there can be no elections during a period of war. Right. So so it's not as if Zelensky is looking at a coming election and thinking, I need to eliminate a political competition. There is no election scheduled. Actually, the election was originally slated to be held next month in March, but isn't going to be held because of the war.

That said, if you're out of step, you're extremely popular. There have been some suggestions in Ukrainian society that the current government is trying to marginalize political players that aren't totally in step with them. And they may think that they have the political juice to pull that off, even though Zaluzhny is extremely popular. at Humber Polytechnic. And I'd like you to set a goal for 2025 to sharpen your skills and get promoted. Register for a professional designation, micro-credential, or certificate with Humber's continuous professional learning and ignite your career journey this new year.

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Money for Cops. You mentioned these elections that were supposed to be coming up. There have been criticisms, right, including from the mayor of Kyiv, right? He said that the president was behaving like a dictator and actively moving towards authoritarianism. Kyiv mayor Vitaly Klitschko made a shocking comparison in a new interview, likening Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to President of Russia Vladimir Putin. He said, quote, at some point we will no longer be any different from Russia where everything depends on the whim of one man. I know you mentioned that they have a lot of political capital right now, but is that discontent growing, right? Like, are there more and more

questions being raised around, you know, the decision to postpone the election? Well, right now, surveys show that in Ukraine, the vast majority of people think that it's not the right time to have an election. So right off the bat, most people are not calling for it. And then beyond that, there are three kind of major obstacles to holding an election at the current period of time, one of which is legal. And there's also the logistical issue of getting soldiers, thousands and thousands of soldiers being able to vote in a combat situation. That's a challenge. And then there's the question of occupied Ukrainian territory, people who are on the other sides of current Russian lines, and whether they get

disenfranchised if a vote happens now. That being said, without elections, there are more limited ways for a population to express their frustration with the direction of the government. for a population to express their frustration with the direction of the government. And there's no release valve there, right? And what you can expect, as you can expect from any democratic society, particularly one like Ukraine, which has fought for, demonstrated for, protested for, and demanded democratic reforms in their country, and gotten it, by the way. It was on this day in 2013 that demonstrators came out onto Kiev's main Maidan Square

to protest against the government's decision to scrap plans for closer ties with the European Union. Known as the Maidan Revolution of Dignity, the three months of protests were marked by violent confrontations with security services in which more than 100 people were killed. This country with this long history of street protests and demands for democracy just does not in the near term have a release for this pressure valve should there be discontent from the population. You can expect over the medium term that this pressure does grow. Right. Because people do want to decide to empower their legislature to do X, Y, or Z. Or as the war goes on, they may want to cast a ballot in order to decide what's the appropriate strategy to move forward. that will probably be raised in the coming year or so, will be this question of, to what extension do the Ukrainian government negotiate with the Russian government in order to negotiate some sort of end to the war?

Does Zelensky have a mandate to do what he would propose to do? I mean, that's not something that I could really give a good answer to. And I think a lot of Ukrainians would want to weigh in on that. But I do want to talk to you more about that. Do we have any sense of how people in Ukraine might be feeling about that? So I know this week Zelensky was in Saudi Arabia and there were some talks, I guess, of a possibility of a peace deal and POW swap with Russia. And how do people inside Ukraine feel about the possibility of a peace? Firstly, on a national level, there is not yet a huge percentage of people who support

negotiations to end the war. My sense is that from the conversations I've had with civilians and soldiers is that the country isn't there and that they do think that any negotiation would just be a prelude to a half-hearted ceasefire followed by more violence later. They don't put a lot of stock in it. But as time goes on, that may change. Right now, the Zelensky administration is doing a lot of talking about talking. It's proposing a peace deal that largely contains everything the Ukrainians want and nothing that would bring the Russians to the table. And so he can do that in a relatively cost-free manner when it comes to public opinion. public opinion. I think that if there were a serious conversation and the two sides actually sat down, which they haven't done in earnest since the full-scale invasion began, there'd

be a much bigger question and a lot more contention in society about whether it was the appropriate move. I mean, at the same time, Zelensky and his government are facing some very real issues around what they might even be able to mount, right? And of course, there's a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine stalled in the U.S. Congress because Republicans want more money for border security. U.S. Congress because Republicans want more money for border security. And also Russia is moving to mount an offensive. I think it's as early as May, right? And so what is Zelensky facing here, just even like logistically? Well, I'd say that like right now, one of the big questions is what is the strategy, right? Last year, it was clear at this moment in time that the strategy was the Ukrainian forces would mount a counteroffensive and try to push the Russians back. And that hasn't been as successful as they would have wanted. So what's the strategy in 2024?

It's a big question mark. The Ukrainian government hasn't laid it out. And they may say, oh, well, you know, we're trying to keep it close to the vest. But in general terms, it's hard to develop a strategy when you don't know what tools you're working with. And the uncertainty from the West about whether they'll, for example, give military aid, donate or contribute long range missiles, all that uncertainty makes it harder to plan and have a strategy. The Ukrainians are in position of being forced to defend themselves and plan with an uncertain scenario of what they'll have to work with. If they don't know, I mean, these tens of billions of dollars in potential aid from the United States, if they have it or don't have it, that will make a big difference in their calculations about

how to proceed over this year. And not knowing is a huge problem for any military planner, I think. So that's something that extends from the generals at the very top to the soldiers in the front line who are being forced to ration their ammo and don't know, you know, are they going to have enough shells in the spring? Are they going to have enough rounds in the spring? That's something that is a big question mark that's not just causing planning interruptions, but a real situation of dampening morale. Yeah. Tim, I'm interested, Zelensky himself, right? I mean, this was a relatively untested leader who, you know, I think there's broad consensus that he rose to the occasion after the full scale invasion, wildly popular at home and abroad. Where would you put him now?

Well, look, there's no doubt that his approval rating has dropped, but it dropped from, you know, the 90% level to a level that would be the envy of any political leader in the Western world. So he still enjoys broad support from Ukrainian society. That said, you take a look at a picture of him today and compare it to two years ago, and you can tell how weathered he's been by the stresses and the difficulties of the last two years of full-scale invasion. And he's surely under a lot of pressure. He had originally said that he would only serve one term as president. And we're coming up to that mark where in a pre-war, in a pre-invasion scenario, he kind of thought, yeah, I'll hold this role until then.

Now he's looking at a pretty indefinite period of time being in office. And you can tell it really wears on him. He's facing pressure from his own citizens who are demanding answers for various battlefield decisions and various policy choices of the Ukrainian government. He's feeling pressure, all sorts of pressure from the Western government who's asking questions about transparency and democracy and corruption in this country, all the while being coy about whether they're going to support him as much as they said they would. And so he is facing a lot of different tensions from all sides and causing a really unenviable position in general when it comes to the work that he has cut out for him over the next few months and over the next year.

Okay. Tim, thank you so much for this. This was really interesting. Thank you. Thanks for having me on. All right, that is all for this week. Front Burner was produced this week by Matt Muse, Allie Jane, Sarah Jackson, and Derek Vanderwyk. Sound design was by Mackenzie Cameron and Sam McNulty. Music is by Joseph Chabison. Our senior producer is Elaine Chow. Our executive producer is Nick McCabe-Locos.

And I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much. Talk to you next week.