Front Burner - Indictments, old age and the US election

Episode Date: January 3, 2024

2024 is an election year in the U.S., but the country is still dealing with the fallout of their last election. Could former President Donald Trump’s legal troubles and accusations of insurrection interfere with his bid to return to office? Why are some Democrats questioning whether current President Joe Biden should be their nominee? Could a close election result trigger another violent, January 6-style reaction? Cameron Joseph is a freelance political reporter writing for the Guardian. For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Damon Fairless. It's a new year, and in the U.S., it's another election year. But Americans are still dealing with the fallout from their last election. Before Christmas, Colorado's Supreme Court ruled that former President Donald Trump couldn't be on the ballot in that state's primary.

Trump's candidacy was challenged by invoking the 14th Amendment's disqualification clause. It states that anyone engaging in insurrection cannot hold public office. On Friday, Maine's Secretary of State came to the same conclusion. Both of those decisions are on hold for the time being, but the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to weigh in. On a different legal front, Trump's also facing four criminal indictments, which could seriously affect his campaign and his ability to run, even though he's by far the leading Republican candidate right now. And this is all happening as Joe Biden faces questions from Democrats about whether he can win. I will not sit still. I will not be quiet in the face of

numbers that are so clearly saying that we're going to be facing an emergency next November. So a lot can happen between now and November. And to talk about what some of that might look like, I'm joined by Cameron Joseph. Cameron's a freelance reporter, and he writes for The Guardian. Hey, Cameron, thanks for coming on FrontBurner. Thanks for having me. The first thing I want to do is go back to just before Christmas, back to this Colorado Supreme Court ruling on December 19th. So can you explain to me just broadly, what does the court say Trump is ineligible to

be on the ballot for the state's primary? That's where they vote for the Republican nominee. So this goes all the way back to the Civil War, basically, is the short answer. There is a part of the Constitution that was put in place right after the Civil War to try and keep top Confederates from returning to power. Basically, anybody who committed insurrection against the US government would be barred from top office. And this really hasn't been used that much in the history of the United States. This is kind of a novel case, but the Supreme Court in Colorado decided that because of what Donald Trump did on January 6th and encouraging the

riot at the Capitol that qualified as an insurrectionist act. We will never give up. We will never concede. It doesn't happen. You don't concede when there's theft involved. Our country has had enough. We will not take it anymore. And that's what this is all about. And because of that, he was not qualified to appear on the ballot in Colorado for the GOP primary there. And so there's a couple of ins and outs legally there. But that's the short answer is that because of January 6th, he's not allowed on the ballot. answer is that because of January 6th, he's not allowed on the ballot. So, and I think there's a fairly broad assumption that the federal Supreme Court will look at this decision pretty soon too. So what are some of the different ways

the Supreme Court, the federal Supreme Court might rule that might potentially impact Trump's campaign? Yeah, I think it's highly likely that the U.S. Supreme Court will step in. The question is how quickly and how narrowly or broadly they decide to answer this question. But I think it's highly likely that the U.S. Supreme Court will step in. The question is how quickly and how narrowly or broadly they decide to answer this question. But I think it's likely that they'll act sooner rather than later, given the grave import of this question and the fact that the longer they wait, the thornier and more difficult and more complicated this issue becomes just in terms of the real-time execution of elections. Because it's not just Colorado, just in terms of the real-time execution of elections. Because it's not just Colorado, there's multiple states that are looking at this. We saw in recent days, the main secretary of state also ruled based on the reasoning in Colorado that Donald Trump can't appear on the primary ballot

there. We've seen multiple other states, including some major swing states like Michigan, rule that Donald Trump can appear on the ballot in the primary, but kind of didn't answer the question about the general election. And we have more than a dozen other states that haven't ruled on this yet, including some crucial swing states. And so this is really a huge deal, especially given that the Republican primaries are basically here. We're just a couple of weeks away from the Iowa caucuses. It's kind of important for voters to be able to know whether the guy that is leading polls and is looking like a almost slam dunk to be the GOP nominee is actually going to be able to appear on the ballot in all the states in the general election. I think that it's likelier than not that they overrule the Colorado Supreme Court. The question is how broad they go with this, whether they rule narrowly that because this is a state primary, that they could rule that the GOP has the right to pick their own nominee

and stay silent on the broader question of whether Trump committed insurrection and can be bound from the ballot, or they could rule more broadly on that basic fundamental question, which is obviously a very loaded political question. They've been marred by wading into very charged political topics in the last few years since it became a conservative supermajority in the court. And so I think there might be some hesitancy to do that. But I think that this is a question that's just staring everybody in the face, and I don't know how they completely avoid it. Yeah, so I guess I'm curious if the Supreme Court overruled the Colorado ruling, how much does that affect Trump's campaign, do you think? I mean, I think it depends.

This is one of those things that the more trouble we've seen Trump in legally, the more the GOP base has rallied to him politically. Trump looked pretty vulnerable at the beginning of last year after a really poor showing by Republicans in the midterm elections, driven largely by the candidates he'd endorsed going down in flames in many states. But he has rallied, and and we saw the GOP base really coalesce around him right around the time of the raid on Mar-a-Lago by the FBI over classified documents, the first major legal action against him. And we've seen with every subsequent developments in these various cases against him, his poll numbers have gone up almost every time.

The question is how this plays out in the general election and how swing state voters who may have voted for him in 2016 and voted for Joe Biden in 2020 or sat out one election or the other look at this. Democrats are hopeful that this is bad for Donald Trump. I think we do not know that yet. So yeah, there's this issue of whether or not Trump is eligible to run or not. But then there's this other kind of slew of legal issues, including criminal indictments. There's four of them, both at the state and the federal levels. So even if the Supreme Court ends up striking down the Colorado ruling,

what would a criminal conviction mean for Trump, both legally and also politically? Well, I think it depends both on the timing of those convictions, as well as where those trials are happening. Which is an issue, right? Yeah. So I mean, it's kind of complicated. So I mean, there's a difference in the U.S. between state and federal court in terms of whether Donald Trump is going to be able to pardon himself if he wins the election. And so the major case that I think is going to be the most interesting politically is the D.C. trial, basically related to January 6th, and whether he committed crimes there. That is iffy in terms

of when that's going to start. It was originally slated to start in early March, but Trump is making the case that he should be immune because of presidential immunity. I think it's a relatively flimsy argument in terms of the merits of the case, but what it is doing is delaying this. The Supreme Court recently ruled that they weren't going to rush to make a judgment on whether he does have presidential immunity in that case. So it's going to have to work its way through the DC circuit court before it gets up to the Supreme court. And we really don't have a clear timetable on that,

but it's likely to push this trial past where it's supposed to start in early March, uh, and, and could delay it weeks or even months. And that seems to be kind of playing to Trump's advantage too. The Trump camp seems to want these trials as late as possible, even after the election. Can you help me understand the thinking there? Exactly. I mean, the later they happen, the more political he can paint them as

in say, well, they're just doing this because I'm the Republican nominee and they're trying to stop me from returning to office and it's all political and it's all a witch hunt. The Trump team thinks this is actually working to their advantage that they have so many different trials and cases that people like you and me are having to take notes to make sure we're keeping them straight. I think most voters and most people have trouble keeping all of these different cases straight in their minds. Whereas if it was one case, we could be talking about the specifics of the case and folks would be able to focus on a little bit more about that. So the DC trial, which is about January 6th, and then we have another major federal trial is supposed to kick off in late May in Florida about keeping classified documents after he left the presidency. The former U.S. president, Donald Trump, has issued a statement saying that the FBI has carried out a raid on his Florida home at Mar-a-Lago. Among the 27 boxes seized, a set of documents marked top secret sensitive compartmented information.

That's material that can be only viewed in a secure facility where no cell phones are permitted. Prosecutors say the documents contain details of the defense and weapons capabilities of the United States and other countries, including details of U.S. nuclear programs. I've talked to experts who think that this is probably legally the most open and shut case of the ones that he faces. But it's got a very Trump friendly judge who he appointed. So that's supposed to kick off in May. There may be delays there. And then the major state level case is the Georgia case, which is also focused on January 6th.

Trump faces 13 criminal counts related to his alleged efforts to overturn the presidential election results in the state. There are 18 co-defendants including Trump's former lawyer and the New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows. Fulton County DA Fannie Willis made it official. The defendants engaged in a criminal racketeering enterprise to overturn Georgia's presidential election results. I think that that one is one that they are worried about legally because, A, Georgia has very broad legal statutes around racketeering, RICO charges. And B, because it's a state case, Donald Trump will not be able to pardon himself if he wins the presidency. So there's a lot of conflation calendar-wise of the major political events

of this year and the major legal threats to Donald Trump. And it's very unclear, A, when exactly those trials are going to happen, and B, what the political fallout will be. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household income?

That's not a typo. 50%. That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. You sort of mentioned this earlier, but I just want to come back to it. So Trump is way ahead in the pollings for the race to be the Republican nominee. Now, assuming he can run unimpeded in these primaries, can we expect other Republicans to

try to claw their way back into the race? Is that even a possibility, do you think? It's a possibility. I never say never. I've seen some pretty unpredictable primary elections in the past, but it is highly likely that Donald Trump will be the nominee. Right now, he is above 50% in the polls in Iowa, which is the first state that votes. And Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, who are the next two candidates in the polls there, have been running ads attacking each other. When you read Nikki's lips, what you're reading is fiction. You can't trust Tricky Nikki. Only Ron DeSantis. Too lame to lead, too weak to win. They seem to be warring for second place and to try and emerge as the candidate against Trump. So, you know, barring a major, major shift, major, major

catastrophe for Donald Trump, I think he's likely to be the GOP nominee. Okay, so let's turn now to the Democrats. So right now, you know, it seems like Joe Biden is likely going to be the Democratic candidate. There have been questions, though, and I'm curious to hear what you've been hearing about what folks have been saying from the perception of how old he is with voters and his actual acumen. Most Democrats I've talked to, and frankly, most journalists I've talked to who cover Biden closely, think that's somewhat overblown, that he might have lost a step, but he's certainly fairly mentally sharp. But he certainly shows his age. sharp, but he certainly shows his age. America is a nation that can be defined in a single word.

I was in the foothills of the Himalayas with Xi Jinping. Yeah, he's only a couple of years older than Donald Trump. I think the perception is that Trump is a lot more spry than he is. I don't know if that's necessarily fair mentally, but it's certainly the perception of a lot of voters. The windmills are driving them crazy. They're driving the whales, I think, a little batty. And that's a real problem. And I think that's something that Democrats have, maybe it's a dark expression here, but whistled past the graveyard on for a while and are now waking up to this being a real problem with voters. The other factor is Joe Biden has a major problem with his base and various Democratic groups that tend to matter a lot in terms of turnout. We've seen in various polls he is not doing well with. He's not doing very well with Black voters. He's not doing well with Hispanic voters.

And then we see this huge gap with young voters that has gotten worse, not better for Joe Biden over the last couple of months. And part of what's driven that, I think, and we've seen this in polling what Israel is doing in Gaza and the level of bloodshed towards civilians that's been happening there and are pretty unhappy with Joe Biden for being as supportive of Israel as he has been. Among the oldest group of voters, 65 plus, there's a majority who approve of how Biden is handling this. That's plus 12. there's a majority who approve of how Biden is handling this. That's plus 12. Look at the youngest group of voters. 20 approve, 70 percent disapprove. He is 50 points underwater with the youngest group of voters. That is a 62 point net swing between youngest and oldest on this topic of Israel Hamas. I think some of these voters are voters that Joe Biden can and likely will win back. But it's going to take a lot of effort and a lot of money and time.

And that's money and time that's being spent on his own base that isn't being spent on convincing swing voters. And so it's going to be interesting to see how he handles that. So from here, you know, this far out, it looks like there's a very probable chance that we're looking at a Biden-Trump rematch. Biden obviously won the last showdown. But this time around, I guess I'm curious how factors like, you know, the more formidable third party candidates might change the voting calculus here? Well, I think it's going to be really interesting to watch third party candidates. And we tend to see them pull much better than they end up doing on election day as the stark choices between the two parties actually become more real for voters who might not like either candidate, but end up

choosing one or the other. And we have various third party candidates, we have Cornel West on the left, who could be drawing kind of a lefty protest vote away from Biden, in the way that we saw Ralph Nader and Jill Stein in the past to Democrats. And, you know, those cost Democrats votes for sure. And likely the election in 2000, like for Al Gore. But the real X factor right now is RFK Jr. Mr. Kennedy obviously has very high name recognition given his last name. He has been, at least initially, pulling pretty evenly from Democrats and Republicans. He's got a relatively liberal viewpoint on many issues, including global warming, but then he's very into conspiracy theories about vaccines and was getting a lot of airtime on Fox News and some other conservative

networks that were giving him a lot of voice until he jumped from running in the Democratic primary to running as an independent. So he was pulling from Republicans. I think that his support may collapse. I think we're seeing cross pressures. We are already seeing Republicans attack him from the right and pointing out all his liberal stances. I think we may see more from that from Democrats too. So it's definitely a wild card. The Democrats are frightened that I'm going to spoil the election for President Biden. And the Republicans are frightened that I'm going to spoil it for President Trump. The truth is, they're both right.

Right now, Joe Biden is trailing Donald Trump in national polling, and people forget that Democrats need to win the national vote by a couple of points to be able to be in a position to win the electoral college and win all the key swing states. Joe Biden won the national vote pretty comfortably last time around. I think it was about four points that he beat Donald Trump by in millions of votes. But when we actually got to the swing states that determined the election, it was under 100,000 votes in three states that gave Joe Biden the electoral college. And it really wouldn't have taken much of a shift

for Trump to beat Biden while Biden won the national vote last time around. And so right now, Trump is winning almost a lot to win the GOP nomination and a pretty clear favorite heading into 2024 to win the general election against Joe Biden. Now, there is a lot of time. There are many things that can happen from now on. And I think it is far too early to make a prediction about what's going to happen next November. But right now, strategists in both parties say they'd rather be Trump than Biden. So I want to go back to what we started with at the top of this conversation, talking about some of the decisions, you know, that aren't in Trump's favor, you know, the Colorado decision, Maine, whatever the Supreme Court comes back with. You know, that aren't in Trump's favor, you know, the Colorado decision, Maine, whatever the Supreme

Court comes back with. You know, what I'm curious about is if the courts were somehow to impede Trump from running, even beyond, you know, just how he's doing in the polls, what kind of public reaction do you think we might see in the U.S.? Well, I think it remains to be seen. We've seen some, but not a ton of polling on this. We've seen some public polling that shows that if Trump is convicted of a felony, that does hurt him with voters. And we see the numbers improve for Joe Biden against Trump in the general election if Trump is convicted of a felony. So I think that it is likely to hurt him, but I think that is not a certainty. I think that it is likely to hurt him, but I think that is not a certainty.

So say Trump does get to run unimpeded. U.S. voters seem more polarized now than they were four years ago. What do you think the likelihood is that Americans or enough Americans are going to accept the election results, whatever they are? I mean, historically, we've seen Democrats lose contested elections and accept that. We saw that in 2000 with Al Gore. In 2016, it wasn't as much of a contested race in terms of the legality of it or major problems with the election itself. I think that it's highly unlikely if Donald Trump loses a close election that he accepts it. We saw his entire political career going back to the Iowa caucuses in 2015. He started talking about

how the 2016 caucuses were being rigged against him and how he wouldn't accept the results. And we saw how he behaved after the 2020 election. Now, I think that the legal system is less vulnerable to a legal coup attempt than it was in 2020, partially because Trump isn't president, partially because we saw some changes to federal law around the Electoral Count Act that was pushed through on a bipartisan basis to kind of close some of the loopholes of the vague wording about how that should have worked. And the legal argument that Trump made on January 6th is no longer even borderline viable legally. But the idea that this is going to be a close election, it's going to break one way or the other, and that everybody is going to believe that is valid and fair, I think is low. I think

the likelihood of the losing side trying to take it into their own hands and triggering violence like we saw on January 6, 2021, or something worse, I think is more likely to happen if Donald Trump loses a narrow election than if Joe Biden does. Well, it's going to be an interesting year to say the least. I'm sure we'll talk to you again. I really appreciate you coming on and chatting today. Thanks for having me. Happy New Year. All right, that's all for today. I'm Damon Fairless. Thanks for listening to FrontBurner.

I'll talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.