Front Burner - Is a global food crisis looming?

Episode Date: April 20, 2026

During the spring, farmers around the globe work to get the seeds and enough fertilizer in the ground to maintain the growing season. If that doesn't happen, food prices spike and farmers could face lower crop yields. That is very much at risk of happening right now because of the Strait of Hormuz’s closure. About a third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer goes through the strait and prices have skyrocketed. The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization warns that this could lead to a global food catastrophe. Marcia Brown covers food and agriculture for Politico. She’s here to explain. For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

What's that noise? I don't know. I get that checked. Quickly. Yeah, good point. Point S, Tires and Auto Service. You think Point S has good deals on tires? Definitely.

What makes you say that? This. Until May 31st, get up to $125 on a prepaid card when you buy four eligible Yokohama tires. Details at point S.ca.ca. Good point. Point S, tires, and auto service. This is a CBC podcast. Hey everybody, I'm Jamie Poisson. I'm not sure what it feels like in your corner of the country,

but despite the fact that it snowed briefly in Toronto on Sunday, it is actually spring. And that means that the clock is ticking down on something we all kind of take for granted. That every year, farmers around the globe get the seeds in the ground and have enough fertilizer to maintain the growing season. Because if that doesn't happen, food prices spike across the board. and farmers who can't afford to pay could face lower crop yields and big hits to their bottom lines. And you know what the growing season doesn't care about. The reasons why the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. About a third of the world's seaborne fertilizer goes through the strait and prices have skyrocketed since the closure.

The United Nations warns that this could all lead to a global food catastrophe. So today, how the straits closure is rippling through the global food system. The impact it's already having on farmers here and abroad and whether the disruption really could lead to a food crisis all over the world. Marcia Brown is a reporter with Politico. She covers food and agriculture for Politico and she's here to talk us through it. Marcia, hey, it's great to have you. Thanks so much for having me, Jamie. I just want to parse through the effects layer by layer here.

Nearly half of the world's traded urea travels through the strait of Hormuz. This is a key component of fertilizers today. Other components like phosphorus, sulfate, also travels through the straits. So, you know, with this waterway now closed, what immediate impact are we seeing for the countries who depend on those shipments the most? So I think you've already talked a little bit about how this was immediate. It's planting season and people are buying, farmers are buying fertilizer right now. And you're also seeing disparate effects. So countries like Canada and the U.S. actually produce a lot of their fertilizer domestically,

and so they're not necessarily at the forefront of the pain here. But a lot of other countries have had to, for example, shut down their own fertilizer production plants because they're not getting enough natural gas out of the Middle East. We've also seen real energy ripple effects in Southeast Asia and other parts of the world. You know, governments telling people, hey, can you not commute as much? or can you find other ways to cut energy? These include limiting fuel sales at 50 liters per day per car. It will also implement a work-from-home policy every Friday for civil servants,

except for health and security sectors. The country's chief economic minister says that could save $6.2 trillion or $364.92 million in fuel subsidies. So it's been a really disparate effect, depending on kind of where you are in the world, depending on how much your economy relies on fertilizer or energy that's coming out of the Middle East. Who would you say has been hardest hit so far and why? I think a lot of India has been hit really pretty badly. Three quarters of the supply, their supply of ammonia comes through the Middle East. When we go to purchase fertilizer, it is not available, and we are told that supplies will come in 15 to 20 days.

And in rare cases, when some trader has it, they tell us to buy a bunch of extra things, and only then do they sell it to us. Other farmers we spoke to say they are facing similar problems. So that's been tough for them. But I think a lot of what we don't quite know yet is also how this will affect countries in the southern hemisphere down the line because they're going to plant a little bit later. And so the longer this goes on, the longer you're going to see some of these effects, especially in countries where they're buying fertilizer.

you know, in the next planting season, right? Some countries are at higher risks than others. If the conflict persists, food prices could rise by about 31% in Zambia, 15% in Sri Lanka, 12% in Taiwan, and 11% in Pakistan. And just talk to me a little bit about what's been happening to the global price of fertilizer as a result of all of this. That's exactly right. These are global commodities and they're traded globally.

And so even if you're in the U.S. or you're in Canada, you're going to see a higher price for fertilizer, even though you're producing a lot of that domestically. Most agricultural resources are up double digits. Over 40% spikes for urea and farm diesel, 30% ammonia, and increases in nitrogen, dap, and potash as well. And so there's been a lot of concern among farmers about whether they can actually buy what they need. The American Farm Bureau Federation just put out a big survey of farmers and farmers. found that 70% of farmers are saying they can't afford all the fertilizer that they're going to need this season. And a lot of those farmers, you know, they did buy some of their fertilizer previously.

You know, in the fall, they pre-booked it. But not all of them did. And maybe they need a little bit more than they thought they were going to need or they're planting a slightly different, you know, crop breakdown this year. So they're needing different fertilizers and they're trying to buy some of that now. And that's going to be a real pinch. We're also going to see disparate impacts between farmers depending on their size. If you're a bigger farmer, you might have been able to pre-book more of your fertilizer in advance because you have more cash flow, whatever that might be.

If you're mid-size or small, that's a lot harder. Watching all of this, in what ways is this a demonstration of just how critical the Middle East has become to the global trade of fertilizer, something that a lot of people probably hadn't have thought very much about? before this war and the closure of the strait. That's exactly right. There's been a lot of growth in the Middle East role in modern agricultural production. And that's in part because of what we've come to know as the green revolution, where you have a lot more reliance on fossil fuels throughout the production of global commodities, proteins, everything that we eat. A lot of that really comes down to fossil fuels. that's in fertilizers, it's in pesticides, it's in all other kinds of chemicals that farmers might

use to dramatically increase their yields, which they've been able to do over the last 50 years, in part because of this big reliance on these fossil fuel derived inputs. But what that means, of course, is that that's very central. And when that's disrupted, it's a huge, huge impact. There aren't great alternatives that farmers can turn to on a dime. What kinds of crops are likely to be affected the most here? So some of the crops that we're hearing about are things like soybeans, wheat, corn, a lot of these sort of global commodities that are really foundational for a lot of what we eat,

a lot of what we feed livestock that we then eat down the line. And also, you know, soybeans go into all kinds of things. You know, they go into like your plastic fork that you might. eat from. They go into a lot of just, you'd be surprised how many things soybeans are in, not just what you eat, but also the products that you use. Yeah, I've seen that the price of live cattle is going way up, right? Is this, is this all related? Yes and no. I think that, so the cattle, the U.S. cattle market is the smallest it's been in decades, and that's partly because of a drought. So ranchers couldn't really afford to feed their cattle, and so they're selling them off. And that's

do a smaller herd size and smaller supply and the prices are going up. Of course, when feed gets more expensive, that could amplify some of these underlying issues. You know, I think that's one of the important things to think about here is we have this fertilizer crisis. But there's also lots of other things that are going on in the world that were preexisting and could be amplified by what we're seeing in the Middle East. Yeah, just take me through that. Take me through that. So with the cattle market, the price has been. higher because the national herd in the U.S. is a lot smaller than it has been in recent years.

And to raise a cow, it takes about a couple years. So it's not like a chicken or a pig where the supply could grow really fast. So that's just going to take some time to even out. So even though prices are really good for ranchers right now, they're getting great prices for their animals, even if they're breeding more animals and trying to build up their herd, it's just going to take some time. It takes about two years for a fed steer to come to market. So we're not going to see immediate relief in beef prices. But then you have these added costs from energy. You have diesel prices are up.

So every time you're moving those animals, it's a lot more expensive. And the feed that you might be buying is more expensive because fertilizer has been more expensive. And transporting all of that feed is expensive. And so these all kind of feed into these prices that we're already seeing that were already high. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. I know farmers in eastern Ontario say that the prices of locally grown food could go up very soon. The head of Saskatchewan's Agricultural Producers Association says that although some farmers buy and store their fertilizer in the winter, as you said, many don't have the capacity to do that.

so they're very vulnerable to these price increases. This is by far, without a doubt, the most expensive crop that farmers have ever put into the ground in history. Our growing season is so tight that we can't miss the beat. When I have to restock in June, that's where it's probably going to hurt. The cost of us now affects the price in the fall and how we're going to deal with next year. Talk to me a bit more about what it is that farmers are actually weighing here

and what are they choosing to do less of? I guess. So farmers are, they could choose to buy less fertilizer, but for farmers, that's always a tough calculation. Most farmers, when you talk to them, they want to spend less on inputs. They don't want to buy a lot of fertilizer. It's expensive. They don't want to buy extra fuel. That's also expensive. But they also are making a calculation, right? Because if they underapply fertilizer and their yields are lower than their neighbors, then they're not going to make as much money that year. So the incentives are for them to kind of overapply, even though it's expensive. And so now they're in a situation where they're trying to work through this price situation,

where they're like, what am I going to get for my crops? And we're not necessarily seeing those crops super spiking in price immediately. And so we don't know that they're going to get a lot more money for what, even though they're spending more on inputs. And they're also reckoning with the idea that if they have lower yields, then they, you know, make less money that year. And that's just a really tough calculation to make. It's a little, you know, it's educated guesswork, but it can be pretty hard to decide how much to buy, how much to pull back, that sort of thing. And they'll need fuel to run their tractor, and that's more expensive and also plastics to wrap their vegetables.

So, like, there's lots of things to consider here. Absolutely. The price of diesel has risen even faster than some of these other inputs we've been talking about. And farmers use diesel when they run their tractor. And farmers use diesel, you know, when they're transporting their food, I was talking about trucking cattle earlier. I mean, that's really expensive. And so, you know, actually when you're talking about the grocery store, diesel prices are probably where consumers are going to see it first. And just when do you think we'll start to really see it? That's a good question. I think we've seen some retailers already looking at, you know, a fuel surcharge because transporting food is so expensive. Foods that have to be that are perishable, so fresh meat or produce, those foods are moving through, you know, cold storage all the time. And every time you're running a refrigerator, a refrigerated truck, a refrigerated warehouse, that's all using diesel. And diesel is like at record highs right now. We've never seen a situation where you're a year.

well into the 230, 240 range for diesel. Most we saw a couple of years ago was 215, 218, same for gasoline. But on the diesel side, we've surpassed that, and we're likely to see that go even higher. Gasoline, of course, goes... And so transporting food has become a lot more expensive, and it's going to be a lot harder for, you know, food processors and retailers to keep those prices down when fuel prices are this high. What's that noise? I don't know.

I get that checked. Quickly. Yeah, good point. Point S, tires and auto service. You think Point S has good deals on tires? Definitely. What makes you say that? This.

Until May 31st, get up to $125 on a prepaid card when you buy four eligible Yokohama tires. Details at point.coma. Good point. Point S, tires, and auto service. I'm Lisa Yuso, a digital producer at IDAS. the podcast that likes to feed your curiosity. I ask my colleagues why they think you should listen. Ideas can make you the smartest, most interesting guest at your next dinner party in less than 60 minutes.

It's got the best of a storytelling podcast with the best of a great lecture. You can pretty much never predict where an episode will take you, but you can count on every episode to shift your perspective, even just a little. Find and follow ideas, wherever. you get your podcasts. You know, I'm thinking about the Ukraine-Russia war. There was actually a fertilizer shortage in 2022 because of the war. Russia and Ukraine account for nearly 30 percent of global fertilizer exports.

But the war and sanctions are hurting supply chains across the world. What do we see happen then? I'm just wondering if you see any parallels here from other major kind of global crises. So there's definitely parallels. Ukraine is also a breadbasket, and so that was a, you know, that impacted commodity prices as well. In the U.S., the government wanted to juice domestic fertilizer production. So even though the U.S. produces a lot of its own fertilizer, the government was really worried about the prices that farmers were paying in that moment.

It was really expensive. A lot of farmers were already struggling with high input costs. we saw record inflation in 2022, kind of across the board. And in the U.S. and in a lot of other countries, there's been a transword consolidation where smaller farmers can't stay in business. And so this was really kind of a moment of whether farmers can stay in business or not. And so one of the things the federal government did at the time is they spent hundreds of millions of dollars to increase domestic fertilizer production, including non-fossil-derived

fertilizer. So we're talking about fertilizer from like chicken litter or fertilizer from, you know, compost and then trying to produce that really close to where the farmers are. And, you know, a lot of people I talk to have said that that was marginal at best, but still better to have diversified kind of fertilizer supply chains than not. One other difference I would just note between now and, you know, 2022 when the war in Ukraine broke out, is that we have a lot higher energy demand, especially in countries where there's a big AI boom. And that is also putting extra pressure on these energy markets and pushing prices higher and, of course, helping to kind of contribute to these higher fertilizer prices. And what about the pandemic? I mean, can you compare what's

happening now to what happened during the pandemic? In some ways, yes, we saw some really tangled supply chains during that time, and that was part of what we saw leading to higher food prices, higher commodity prices, and higher energy prices. Right now, we're seeing different responses from governments in the U.S. There's been a little bit of short-term changes. They're really going after some of the big fertilizer producers and alleging price fixing. The President Trump actually posted about this and, you know, called fertilizer companies a monopoly. But in some of the ways it's also a little bit different because it's more localized. We're seeing that in the Middle East rather than a global pandemic. But there's also still that real real instability and

unpredictability. We don't know how long this is going to go on. Just this weekend, as we're recording, the street was open and then was closed. And all that uncertainty makes it harder for farmers and businesses to plan. You know, I know just talking about what other countries are doing here, I know China is not restricting its fertilizer exports to prioritize their own farmers. And so what implications could that have? So that's a really important point because that's restricting global supplies and further putting upward pressure on prices. I also read just this week that Japan is, you know, they've, they've been really struggling with this energy crisis and they're actually looking to get back into nuclear energy production despite being the site of the worst, you know,

nuclear disaster in history. So we're seeing a lot of countries take pretty drastic steps here to kind of shield some of their residents from these really high prices. Do you think that we might see a situation where governments have to step in here to help farmers stay afloat, people talking about that? Absolutely. I think in the U.S., that question is a little tougher because this is not a government that wants to spend a lot of money. So the changes that they've made so far in the short term have been things like deregulating diesel emissions, which is one way that they say will help lower farmers' costs. They've also looked at trying to boost farmers' bottom lines by increasing ethanol, you know,

demand in the U.S. But I haven't really heard yet from the administration plans to spend more on, you know, fertilizer production. Agriculture Secretary, Brooke Rollins, did say last week in a hearing that she would have some announcements around expanding domestic production this coming week, but it's not yet clear what those plans would be. You know, U.S. farmers are a pretty reliable Republican voting block. Okay. And like could all of the anxiety and concerns about costs have a political cost here? Absolutely. And I think that's partly why you're seeing the president tweet. about, you know, fertilizer companies being to blame for this. And even in the hearing last

week that I mentioned, we saw Republicans blaming fertilizer companies and saying that monopolies are the root of the recent price increases and saying that the government needs to look more aggressively at transparency, price transparency in those markets and, you know, diversifying supplies. Farmers have been a loyal constituency for the president. for Republicans. They've also had faced a lot of tests of that loyalty in the last year with tariffs. We saw from President Trump's first trade war that that really permanently shifted global markets for farmers, especially for soybeans. Brazil became a dominant supplier to China, whereas the U.S. used to play that role. And now we're seeing that again. And so farmers are

struggling to find a market for a really key crop, soybeans. And now they're facing, huge input cost increases. And so that kind of dual effect, I think, could test their loyalty. I'm not sure they will necessarily see Republicans flocking to Democrats. It could be more like, you know, Republicans are sitting out the midterms. The president is not in the ballot, which is already going to be a challenge for some midterms. But I do think the president is trying to answer some of this pressure from farmers and from his Republican allies because this is a, it's a political liability for them.

You know, we've been talking a lot during this conversation about what this could do to food prices and how this is making things tricky and difficult for farmers. But if this straight remains closed, we could also see a global hunger crisis unfold, right? Like both the United Nations and the International Rescue Committee are raising concerns about this, right? And so just tell me more about what could potentially have. in here. There's definitely some concern about a global hunger crisis. You already mentioned the UN. The Food and Agriculture Organization has put out some statements around this and being concerned about whether farmers are going to be able to produce at the level that we need to feed billions of

people around the world. And already the ripple effects from the streets closure, even if it reopens and stays open are going to be lasting. They're not going to go away in a couple months. You can look at, you know, futures markets and you can see that the price of oil for a barrel of oil is not expected to really fall precipitously in the next few months. And so I don't think this is going away. I think the other factor here is the U.S. has pulled back from a lot of global food aid and that could also have a ripple effect with developing countries and more vulnerable countries trying to have enough supply to feed their populations. Again, part of this really depends on, you know, what happens with the straight.

There's also the question of whether the street just becomes a place where countries are expected to pay a toll, which, you know, but maybe that means that commerce is moving, but everything is more expensive in a lasting way. And then the other factor here is we are expecting or we could see a super El Nino this year. And that could lead to hotter conditions and drier conditions in some places or wetter conditions and other places. And that could have a really meaningful impact on yields as well. And that could be almost more concerning than some of this fertilizer shortages. Wow. I had no idea about that until you just brought it up right now.

I talked to, I should have mentioned this. I talked to someone on like a former USDA economist who was like, don't forget the El Nino. Yeah. I mean, just what we need. Another thing to compound this kind of global crisis that we're in. Marsha, I think let's end on that pretty concerning note. Thank you so much for this. Really appreciate it. Thanks so much for having me on, Jamie.

That's all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca.ca slash podcasts.