Front Burner - Is democracy at stake in India’s election?

Episode Date: April 22, 2024

The single biggest election in the history of democracy is happening right now in India. Just shy of one billion people are eligible voters, but it's not just big from a numbers perspective. It's also being called one of the most pivotal elections in Indian history.Incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi is projected to win. But Modi's commitment to Hindu nationalism has many questioning what a third term might mean for the future of India’s democracy, and the idea of a pluralistic Indian society.Salimah Shivji is the CBC's South Asia correspondent. She’s also working on a new CBC podcast about Modi and the fundamental ways he’s changing his country. It’ll be part of our Understood feed, you can subscribe here. Salimah spoke to host Jayme Poisson about why the stakes of this election are so high.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Jimmy Poisson. It's nothing short of colossal. In the world's largest democracy, 969 million registered voters are preparing to cast their ballots. It's called the biggest democratic exercise in history.

10% of the world's entire population will be eligible to vote. In the first of the seven-phase process, which started on Friday, 166 million Indians are registered to take part. The single biggest election in the history of democracy is happening right now in India. But it's not just big from a numbers perspective. It's also being called one of the most pivotal elections in Indian history. Narendra Modi is the reigning superstar of Indian politics. Rallies like these are an integral part of an Indian election, but only a few leaders have evoked such a response in the country's history.

Modi is looking to secure his third term as prime minister at the helm of his party, the BJP. And based on the polls, he is almost definitely going to do that by a landslide. But critics say a big part of the lack of opposition is because of a crackdown on political rivals and dissenting media. is because of a crackdown on political rivals and dissenting media. And Modi's commitment to Hindu nationalism has many questioning what a third term might mean for the future of India's democracy and the idea of a pluralistic Indian society. Salima Shivji is a CBC South Asia correspondent based in Mumbai, but I'm reaching her in Varanasi, which is Modi's constituency.

Salima is also working on a new CBC podcast about Modi and the fundamental ways that he's changing the country. She's going to break down how things got to this point and why the stakes of this election are so high. Salima, hi, thanks so much for making the time. My pleasure. So before we get into the key players and issues in this election, it's always so amazing to me when India goes to the polls. I just want to take a moment to talk about the scale of this, right? This is an election with almost a billion eligible voters. And so from a logistical standpoint, take me

through how it will roll out. Yeah, it's a pretty spectacular undertaking, a massive undertaking, really. So voting takes place in seven phases, and those are extended over more than six weeks. And really, that's because of, as you mentioned, the huge population, right? 968 million eligible voters. There are about 15 million civil servants who work as polling agents and they have to trek all over the country, right? They have to go sometimes high into the Himalayas, deep into forests, jungles, because every Indian has the right to vote within two kilometers of their home. So some of those trips that the polling agents take into the back country, that takes days sometimes. But there's

also the question of security, right? Some of India's past elections were violent. So there are federal paramilitary forces that are actually deployed to keep polling stations safe, only there aren't enough of them, right, to cover the whole country and to cover every booth all at once. So those groups need to rotate around the country with the election phases. So that's really why there's this crazy logistical puzzle, really, of when each place in India votes and how that staggered over those seven phases over more than six weeks. Yeah. And fair for me to say, we'll know the results at the end of those six weeks. Yeah, absolutely. And that's also a little bit fascinating that, you know, voting takes place over such a long period, but all of the results will be counted

and released in just one day. And that's because there's an electronic voting system here. So there are these machines, electronic machines, that are carried to the polling station. Then they store the votes. And after the voting in that area is done,

those machines are kept under lock and key. And then they're all counted on that last day. You know, there's a bit of controversy. There always sort of has been over how efficient the machines are, whether they can be manipulated or not. I mean, as expected, but they've been in use since 2000, the year 2000. And because of them, the counting goes really fast. So they'll all be tallied. All of those votes will be tallied and released on June 4th. Let's talk about Narendra Modi now and his party, the BJP. So he has been prime minister for the last two terms since 2014, right? And tell me a bit about how popular he is right now, what the polls are saying about how likely it is that he will win.

Yeah, that's a huge question because there really is little doubt from analysts, from observers, from people on the ground too, that Modi will win this election. He really looks to be in a really strong position to secure a rare third straight term. And that's actually really quite a big deal. It would equal the record set by India's first prime minister, Nehru. And that sense that Modi will secure a win here, it comes from opinion polls. You know, he's the most popular of world leaders. And when you think about that, it's pretty crazy how high his approval ratings are. It's about 75%. He's like God for me.

He's made women like us feel safe. He's a good speaker. And he has built trains and roads in villages and cities. In every aspect, sir, it is developing day to day because of one name, Modi. Modi. There is no opposition for Modi. One and only Modi. You know, there's this sort of religious fervor when his supporters speak about him.

You know, they tend to refer to him as a holy figure, as a god. He's like a god person to us. Which person? God person. He's like a Lord Rama who is making India good. Modi Bhagwan you hear all the time, you know, it means Modi, our God. Even some people who aren't that fond of Modi actually give him credit for some of India's milestones that we've seen in the last few years. Like landing on the dark side of the moon, you know, for example, or the G20 summit, right?

And I want to get into more of those milestones in a moment when we talk about his policies. But just coming back to this, this love that people have for him, you know, just tell me a little bit more about why you think that is. You know, my understanding is that there is this personal charisma, right? People do feel drawn to him. Yeah, he's very charismatic and he's really a powerful and magnetic speaker, I'd say. You know, when he makes those speeches at rallies, people in the crowd respond to that. He also often speaks in Hindi, and that's kind of a break from a lot of Indian leaders in the past. On the world stage too, he insists on speaking in Hindi, not in English.

So he sort of really knows how to talk to the population, talk to the people of India. His story is appealing too, right? He's from a humble background. He's the son of a chaiwala, someone who sells tea. And now he's running the country with this firm hand. And I've heard that from countless people that they respond to that narrative. They like that about him. But I would say he's also really meticulous about his image, you know, how it's created and how it's enhanced. All of that is really carefully curated. So that's a large part of it, too. So I think that's all part and parcel of why so many people, you know, think he is in such a strong position to win this election. And the question for many kind of looking at this election will be, you know, if the winning

question is kind of out of the way, it will sort of be how big the majority will be for his party, for the Bhartiya Jantha Party, the BJP. Let's dig into more some of what he's been able to accomplish. You mentioned landing on the dark side of the moon. People are applauding. That is the scene from Mission Control as the Chandrayaan-3 spacecraft made its successful landing near the lunar south pole. The landing on the southern pole is a new frontier for Earth's celestial body. It's thought to contain water and ice. You know, I know a big one that people talk about a lot is what he's done around development and robust welfare programs.

And tell me a little bit more about that. Yeah, I'll take the first one first. You know, he has really expanded welfare programs across the country. That's been a big focus of his from the beginning since he was elected in 2014. And what's interesting about a lot of those programs is a lot of them have his name or his image attached to them, right? So when you're handing over the rations to some of the poorest, you know, you'll see Modi's face on the bag or whatnot. So it is very much connected to him as a person. You mentioned

development too. So, you know, in the months before the election began there was really a flurry of infrastructure announcements you could see Modi flying around the country all over the country you know that he'd be inaugurating a new bridge one day a new highway the next um so that sense as well is really clear kind of on the ground a lot of people I talk to say oh yeah well he's built our roads um He's built better roads for India. We can move freely now and security is better too. There was this, you know, grand ceremony and really spectacle around the Ram Mandir opening, the temple, right? That was a big project for Modi and for his party, the BJP, a temple devoted to Lord Ram. And it was built on the grounds of a demolished mosque, right? That

was burnt down, basically brought down by a Hindu right mob. The three domes were leveled within five hours. Though passions were running high and the crowds uncontrollable, it was obviously premeditated by some people. The temple actually was only half completed when Modi inaugurated it in January, but he was really intent on getting that done before the elections.

And so that's also given Modi a big push with voters because, you know, that temple, it combines two of the main things that we know have led to his deep and enduring popularity, right? There's that building of infrastructure kind of building up India, but there's also that Hindu first ideology, right? That Hinduism is the dominant religion in the country. Yeah, and this is probably what he is best known for internationally, right? That Hinduism is the dominant religion in the country. Yeah. And this is probably what he is best known for internationally, right? That Hindutva ideology, Hindu majoritarianism. And just elaborate on that a little bit more for me. How has it played out since he came to power in 2014? Yeah, absolutely. So Hindutva is the idea that Hinduism is the dominant religion of India, right? That India is not a secular nation, despite the secular ideals, you know, that every religion

is equal and respected, that those ideals are enshrined in India's constitution. The idea that Modi and his party, you know, are focusing on India as a Hindu first nation and that they plan to sort of keep it that way has really been a big focus of his time in power. And critics say because of that, of course, there has been a persecution of India's Muslims under Modi's reign. You know, we've seen a rise in anti-Muslim rhetoric and hate speech. And critics say that what comes with all of that hate speech comes violence, you know, along with the democratic backsliding. And we've seen some examples of policies that show how important, of course, this Hindu nationalism is for Modi and his BJP party. We've seen the controversial citizenship law.

The Citizenship Amendment Act offers refuge to minorities from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan, but excludes Muslims. So that, you know, it was so controversial when it was first proposed that it sparked riots. Then COVID happened. And then just recently it was implemented. It just shows that the BJP is going forward with these controversial policies that really focus on, you know, critics say on a Hindu-first India. Yeah. And that they're popular for a large portion of the country. Yeah. I mean, people really love the citizenship law. People you speak to on the streets, even those who aren't at Modi's rallies,

basically talk about that as one of the things that they like about Modi that he has put it forward. But, you know, when you speak to the Muslim community, obviously not from the majority community, there are some 200 million Muslims in this country. It's about 14% of the population. And when you talk to them about their fears, you know, and their life under Modi, it's obviously a very different story. I recently spoke with a young woman who had just lost her husband. And that happened after a Hindu mob who had just lost her husband and that happened after Hindu mobs stormed into their village's mosques. They were carrying batons and other weapons and her husband was inside the mosque praying for evening prayers and he was hit in the head and

killed instantly. And Aisha, his wife, they were newlyweds, she was several months pregnant at the time. So she now has a baby girl who will never know her father. Ayesha says that formerly calm relationship between the Hindu and Muslim communities in her area will never be repaired, you know? And that's just one story that you hear from the people from the minority communities and how they feel when they hear these policies from the government, from their prime minister. In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization. Empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections.

Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household income? That's not a typo, 50%. That's because money is confusing.

In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. Another big thing I hear people talking a lot about, you know, when it comes to what Modi and the BGP have focused on is this big anti-corruption push. And tell me a little bit more about what has been happening there and then also how it ties into the opposition and what we're seeing from the opposition right now, or maybe more fairly lack thereof. Yeah, well, Modi did come to power with this promise to fight corruption, kind of building up that idea that he's from a humble background, he's an outsider, and he's not the powerful elite, you're not one of the party,

you know, so perfectly placed to sort of fight rampant corruption in politics. So there were some moves to fight, you know, illicit funds but you know even heading into this election that that reputation is a little bit murky because the supreme court actually recently struck down a system that the bjp implemented about all over political donations basically um the bjp started this program where political donations were unlimited they were anonymous they weren't really transparent at all. And the court called the whole thing unconstitutional. And it turns out Modi's party benefited the most from these electoral bonds, these political donations. So a lot of analysts are pointing to that and saying there

isn't really a level playing field for this election because of that. But there's also, as you mentioned, a move against some opposition parties. A lot of people have said there's a bit of concern over what looks to be a crackdown with federal investigative agencies going after opposition leaders. They even put some of them in jail. What the opposition says is like on trumped up corruption charges.

So the chief minister of Delhi, of the national capital area, Arvind Kedrewal. He's in jail right now, currently running the government of the capital region from behind bars. Police surrounded the home of Arvind Kedrewal, a prominent opposition leader in connection with corruption allegations relating to the city's policies over alcohol sales. His arrest comes weeks before voting starts in a general election in the country. And opposition Raul Gandhi was recently sentenced to two years in prison for defamation, right? That's right, he was, yeah. And there were, there was even questions about whether he would be able to run in this election early on when he was sentenced. So, you know, in all of this atmosphere,

if you talk to some analysts, they say, you know, it just is basically chipping away at a long tradition in India, you know, long touted as the world's largest democracy, you know, but in a healthy democracy, do you have these types of federal investigative agencies going after opposition leaders? Or do you have, you know, charges against the main opposition and one of the senior leaders of the Congress, Rahul Gandhi? India's main opposition Congress party says it too is being targeted. All our bank accounts have been frozen. We can do no campaign work. We cannot support our workers. We cannot support our candidates. And this has been to those arrests and to the climate in general as just, you know, another example of the further erosion of democratic norms, they say, under Prime Minister Modi. You know, I know certainly that the opposition or opposition parties in India are not robust,

but just like how weak are they going into this election? Yeah, I would say very weak. Basically, the opposition parties have banded together into an alliance. They've called the alliance India. And so it's mostly regional parties and the national opposition, the Congress, you know, which is sort of India's grand old party, right? It ruled India for many decades after independence. But the alliance is pretty fragmented. It's quite weak. There was, you know, there's a bit of infighting. There was, at the very least, leading up to the election.

Some of the regional parties are, of course, very strong in their states, in their areas. But I think when you look generally at the health of the opposition, most people say that it is quite fragmented. And what about the media ecosystem? So I know India has a massive media ecosystem, but how is Modi generally covered? And how has he approached more critical coverage? Yeah, across the board, I would say he's generally covered with adoration. There's very rarely any critical coverage when you turn on the television in India. There's a barrage of coverage. There's a whole bunch of panels and a lot of people talking over each other. So there is a robust dialogue. whether that dialogue is critical or not, I think

is an important point. It's not really. And so he's really kind of cowed the national media, I would say, in his years in power. And in terms of critical coverage, he's really shut it down completely. This is a prime minister who doesn't give interviews to any critical media. He doesn't take questions. He doesn't give media any access. And if there is coverage that Modi and his party don't like, there are often requests from the government to take it down or to block access in India, right? So we've seen that with the BBC's documentary looking at Modi's role in the Gujarat communal riots back in 2002. That documentary came out last year. It was blocked.

The BBC's operation in India looks to be paying the price for a documentary it showed here, criticising Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Its offices in New Delhi and Mumbai have been raided, strangely, perhaps by tax officers. The phones and documents of BBC staff were confiscated. Mr Modi did manage to stop... And we saw it with one of our own documentaries, right? The CBC's Fifth Estate recently aired a doc

on the assassination of Calistani activist Hardeep Singh Nidger. That was also blocked. Indian government officials asked YouTube and other social media platforms to basically remove access in India. So that is a more common tactic that's being used here in India,

and most expect that to continue. You know, this crackdown on the media, the big barriers when it comes to kind of a free and robust press. This is one of the reasons why people are very concerned about whether this is kind of the beginning of the end of Indian democracy, right? The other one being what you mentioned earlier, this kind of crackdown on the opposition. And just give me a little bit more information about that, because this is something that a lot of critics are talking about, and they're really concerned right now. Yeah, where this is going, right? You know, if, and it looks according to the polls, that it is quite likely that Modi will

win a third straight term. There is a lot of concern about what that means for India. We've kind of touched on it, but,'s founders were really committed to pluralism, right? Even for such a diverse country, the aim was really to protect the country's minorities and to keep India a secular country after partition, right? When the British Raj ended and India and Pakistan were carved out of the subcontinent. You know, India was established as a secular nation and Pakistan established eventually as an Islamic republic, right? But here in India, those principles, secularism, that was enshrined in India's constitution.

And so in the decade that Modi has been prime minister, people have been increasingly worried about that erosion of that commitment to secular India, you know, with Hindu nationalism, Hindutva coming to the forefront. And even just leading into this election on the campaign trail, there's been talk of possible changes to the constitution if Modi does win a third term. Comments made by some BJP leaders in pitches to voters, right? Basically, vote for us, give us a strong majority, and we will change India's secular constitution. Now, Modi has come out and denied that that's his intention. But

even with that denial, it's a fear and a pretty solid fear in some quarters about how India could change. Salima, this was really fascinating. Thank you so much for coming on and doing this with us. I know you've lost your voice and you've had a long day, so we really appreciate it. My pleasure. All right. So before we go today, the podcast that I mentioned that Salima is working on is out in May. It's called Modi's India Understood. If you listen to the other shows we made about Sam Bankman, Freed, and Pornhub, the show will be in that feed.

If not, check them out. And when the Modi show drops, you'll already be following. We'll put a link in the episode description. Thanks so much for listening and talk to you tomorrow. more out.