Front Burner - Is Europe ready for the Greenland fight?

Episode Date: January 21, 2026

In a provocative speech to the World Economic Forum on Tuesday, Prime Minister Mark Carney made the case that the rules of international economics and politics are “in the midst of a rupture, not a transition”.Carney went on to say that middle powers like Canada need to work together to find their own coalitions to survive and stand up to countries using economic coercion – a clear reference to the Trump administration. This comes after Trump’s stunning threats earlier this week to slap tariffs on European countries like France, Britain, and Germany over their support of Greenland's sovereignty. It has pushed the relationship between the U.S. and Europe to the brink.Carney said he stands with our European allies in support of Greenland. But what kind of pushback can they mount? And what kind of domestic pressures are European leaders facing in their own backyard?Michaela Kuefner is the Chief Political Editor at DW News and joins us from Davos, Switzerland.For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

Hey, it's me, Gavin Crawford, host of the Because News podcast, a trivia show that's all about the news. This week, comedians Emma Hunter, Miguel Rivas, and Ryan North will join me. This week, we'll find out who Gen Z has dubbed the male Karen and what new name is letting poor Karen's off the hook. Plus, we'll dig into the problems with ice, Olympic ice, that is. Also, do you know the difference between a reset and a recalibration? China does, and you can find out if you follow Because News on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast for free. This is a CBC podcast. Hi everybody, I'm Jamie Poisson.

Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition. On Tuesday, to an audience of some of the most powerful people in the world, Mark Carney delivered a blunt and extraordinary speech that people are already dubbing the Carney Doctrine. Here are a few lines he spoke from Davos, Switzerland. We understand that this rupture calls for more than adaptation. It calls for honesty about the world as it is. We are taking the sign out of the window.

We know the old order is not coming back. We shouldn't mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy. Now Canada was amongst the first to hear the wake-up call leading us to fundamentally shift our strategic posture. Canadians know that our old comfortable assumptions that our geography and alliance memberships automatically conferred prosperity

and security, that assumption is no longer valid. You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination. Carney went on to say that middle powers, like Canada, need to work together to build their own coalitions to survive economic coercion by other countries, a clear reference to the United States. This all followed Trump's stunning threats earlier this week to slap tariffs on eight countries, including France, Germany, Britain, and Norway for opposing American

control of Greenland. It's pushed the relationship between the U.S. and Europe to the precipice. Carney says that he stands with our European allies in the support of Greenland's sovereignty. But are the Europeans up for the task? What kind of pushback can they mount? And what kind of domestic pressures are leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron, UK PM Kirstarmer, and Germany Chancellor Friedrich Mertz facing. We're going to discuss all of this and more today with Michaela Kufner, the chief political editor at DWN News. Michaela, thank you so much for making the time. Pleasure.

So it is Tuesday night in Davos where you are right now. Thank you for staying up late with us. And I would be curious to hear your thoughts on essentially what the vibe is there right now. How would you describe it? Well, I just came back from the opening dinner and Mark Carney was there and many other leaders were there in the U.S. delegation that's arrived already. And there is this sense of suspense of what Donald Trump is going to say. I think it was very telling that we heard from Mark Carney today about this close integration becoming a source of subordination. That's also the sentence that I

clearly marked from his speech. But we also heard from Ursula von the line, the EU Commission president, talking within the same vein that it's time. for Europe to really reinvent itself and stand on its own. Political shocks can and must serve as an opportunity for Europe. And in my view, the seismic change we are going through today is an opportunity, in fact a necessity to build a new form of European independence. And we've heard the rhetoric many times before, but I'm getting historical sense of that there's a realization that the past times have gone and they won't come back.

These tariffs that he's threatening to put on these countries and Europe and the UK over Greenland, like I wonder if you could just elaborate for me a little bit more on just the kind of pressure this is put on the relationship. You know, I use the word precipice in the intro. I wonder if you would agree with that. Yeah, I mean, I guess, look, nobody on the European side wanted that relationship to be significantly damaged. And you could see European leaders almost selling Donald Trump's policies in the past because they knew that they would have to sell any kind of compromise, any kind of acceptance to their own voters. This is what happened on the initial tariff deal in July that many felt was a, surrender by the Europeans who in parts don't impose any tariffs, but in exchange, the U.S. can on many goods, and particularly on steel, like 50%. So that was painful. I think it's great that we made a deal today instead of playing games and maybe not making a deal at all.

I think it's, I'm going to let you say, but I think it's the biggest deal ever made. Thank you very much. It's a huge deal. It was tough negotiations. I knew it at the beginning and it was indeed very tough, but we came to good conclusions for both sides. Now, anyone who stands up who signed off on supporting Greenland, so Denmark plus seven countries, that includes the major European countries, Germany, France, but also Britain, notably being threatened directly by Donald Trump, to be hit with an extra 10% in tariffs, simply because,

They don't support the U.S. taking control of Greenland, whatever that means in the end. Trump plans to boost the tariffs to 25% in June. He says they will stay in place until the U.S. reached a deal to take over Greenland. So there is no way to talk to soften this to anyone anymore. He just wants it. He will take it. And anyone who's against it will get punished just for their opinion. And just for standing up for the principle of non-intervention. of rules-based international order.

Yeah. It's the more you think about it, the more shocking it is. So I guess we're kind of hurtling towards this, what was it, a February deadline that he put on these tariffs, right? First of February, yes. Yeah. And I know that the Europeans have this emergency summit that they've organized for Thursday. I would imagine that this is dominating the conversation in Davos right now.

And I want to talk with you today about what they, might do here, right? Von der Leyen has talked about an unflinching and united response, but what are the options that they're actually thinking about? And maybe first we could go through some of the kind of trade-related or economic options that they're considering. The first option at hand is to, and the European Parliament has already basically threatened this, is to not vote in favor of the deal that was struck. last summer. That was already a lopsided deal.

That would be in the European Parliament. Then we saw Emmanuel Macron, the French president, who likes to be the one who makes that quote from the European side, call for the Europeans to pull out the bazooka, the anti-coercion instrument. Europe has very strong tools now, and we have to use them when we are not respected, and when the role of the game are not respected.

by the way. The anti-coercion mechanism is a powerful instrument, and we should not hesitate to deploy it into a tough environment. It's an anti-economic coercion instrument, which is basically in the drawers of the European Commission should any country ever try and blackmail the Europeans through high tariffs. It doesn't just target products coming into Europe from the US, but also services. For example, that you can target tech companies like Google, meta, Amazon and Netflix by making them pay higher taxes, tightening regulations, or slowing down approval for new products. And the country in mind, actually when that was designed, was definitely not the U.S.

That was more meant for China. Now, this is something that could be decided on, and we can expect that meeting on Thursday in Brussels, amongst EU leaders, to take a first step towards that. But it's not a weapon that just gets fired. It's something where the Europeans could decide to allow the commission to now draft measures. It sounds very European Union, but that's how the EU works. And it basically gives the European Commission a free hand to design any kind of tariff concepts or measures could also include excluding U.S. companies from taking part in any kind of procurement here in the European Union

that could only apply to specific goods and services. The second strength of the bazooka is speed. Unlike other economic weapons like sanctions, the bazooka doesn't need all EU member states to agree for it to go into effect. So there's a whole range that they can come up with or pull out of the draw, but it was always meant as a threat. Do you have a sense of where other leaders are on this? Are they aligned with Macron on taking this kind of step?

Or are they sort of pulling back already on it? When you say aligned, I'm trying to think of the last time that European leaders were 100% aligned on anything. No, there is no alignment. And there are the usual suspects like Hungary will definitely not take any measures. They don't want to be in the bad books of the United States. And they live a very happy life oscillating between being inside the EU, but pretty much against anything that the key countries are in favor of. But there is a sense amongst EU leaders that something has to change, that something fundamental is changing here.

And that could mean a kind of unity on standing up to Donald Trump that hasn't been there before. This is going to be a very tense moment. And I guess the overarching question is, what will Donald Trump exactly say? What will he threaten? but also will he stay on script? Because it always gets dicey when he goes off script and leaves the path. But even just the path that he's on right now, right? Even if he doesn't go off that path, I mean, I'm just trying to get a sense of what other tools Europe thinks could be available to them right now.

You know, I know we have been weighing sending troops to Greenland for military exercises with NATO allies. and just what kind of like show of force or military options, as Europe and the UK discussing right now? And what would be like the intent of those? It really makes sense looking at it the other way around what the Europeans have done already and they can do this within NATO. So this is European countries within NATO,

is commit themselves and come up with a plan to, and actually we heard from O'SLA from the line, the EU Commission president today, that part of the increase in different, defense spending at the European level should now go specifically towards Greenland. We will work with the United States and all partners on wider Arctic security. This is clearly in our shared interest and we will step up our investment. In particular, I believe we should use our defense spending surge on a European icebreaker capability

and other equipment vital to the Arctic security. What they've done for now is sent Germany, for instance, sent 15 of its soldiers for two and a half days on a reconnaissance mission of the general threat that Greenland is experiencing. This was, of course, a highly symbolic mission to show commitment. That was the rhetoric, but also to demonstrate

we would be committed to send boots on the ground, yeah, but not boots on the ground to fight against the U.S. that is for sure. Tell me more about what you think it is that they're trying to accomplish with all of that. Well, they're trying to show maximum pushback on the very fundamental issue that goes to the core actually of the existence of the European Union, which is rules-based order. And at the same time, they want to stay constructive because of the trade dependencies between the two, but also because there is such a high dependency on the United States.

militarily within NATO, but also in finding some kind of political outcome over Ukraine. And there is this war of aggression. It's almost disappearing out of the headlines that people are freezing in minus 18 degrees Celsius because the energy infrastructure is being specifically targeted by Vladimir Putin every night. So that is being pushed out of the headlines for starters. And then Donald Trump may well, and I suspect, would, because he always connects all issues, threatened to withdraw his support and his effort

in creating at least the ceasefire there. Local news is in decline across Canada, and this is bad news for all of us. With less local news, noise, rumors and misinformation fill the void. And it gets harder to separate truth from fiction. That's why CBC News is putting more journalists in more places across Canada, reporting on the ground from where you live. telling the stories that matter to all of us, because local news is big news.

Choose news, not noise. CBC News. I'm thinking of this text message that Trump posted today, Tuesday. It's a message from French President Manuel Macron from earlier this week, and it's pretty deferential. Macron is calling him his friend, starting off by praising what Trump has been doing in Syria and Iran, but he goes on to say he does, quote,

not understand what you are doing on Greenland. And McCaunt offers to convene a G7 meeting and wants to have dinner with Trump. So clearly there are these kind of softer attempts at diplomacy happening behind the scenes. I imagine at every level here to try and de-escalate this. And so what does the fact that Trump leaked those message say to you about Europe's diplomatic options here? that communicating with Donald Trump is a very risky business. We've learned that today. The fact that Donald Trump breaks what really is a sacred rule amongst world leaders,

that you just don't do that, that you need to have the ability to communicate with each other in confidence and that you don't just go and post anything you write to him. That means that the channels of communication just became more narrow because whatever Immanuel Macron messages him next or the UN NATO Secretary General or the German Chancellor could end up as a post as entertainment. He was asked about his relationship today with Sturmer, the UK's Prime Minister and Macron.

I think I get along very well with them. I mean, they over-strip me well. They get a little bit rough when they're, you know, when I'm not around. But when I'm around, they treat me very nicely. At one point, he said about McCrom. Emmanuel's not going to be there very long. And that's something that I've heard him say before. And we haven't spoken yet about how weak many of these European governments are at home

and how this could affect their ability to kind of respond with strength to the U.S. now. So let's start with France. At Davos on Tuesday, Macron said, we don't give into bullies, but is he making that statement from a position of strength himself? I'd say he's making it from a position of principle. It's very much the understanding of the grand nation and a leading nation in Europe, but he's not made, definitely not made, he's making it from a position of essentially a lame duck president. And that's also why European partners no longer have great expectations for France taking much of a lead. He's not even able to get a budget through these days. So this is a real problem for the Europeans that such a central nation has a president

where everybody's already just speculating who's going to be next. Everybody really wants to talk about it with whoever is next. But it really is a problem if a French president is so weak, the Franco-German engine is supposed to drive the EU, not just not because there is so much unity, between the two countries, but because there is traditionally so much disunity, they often share the same goals, but then want to take opposite directions and getting there. And that's why that in the past has been able to work to join to get Europeans together. Imano Macron, he does make historic statements. They will definitely be in the history books.

But he has very little clout, really, to convince others. That's different with Friedrich Meertz. How is it different? So this is the chancellor of Germany. In what position does he find himself in right now? Well, he's, you know, he will be one year in office in May. So he's less than a year into his four-year term. He too faces pretty bad opinion polls back home. He also faces a whole set of regional elections. He has a narrow majority in Parliament, but he does have a majority in Parliament. And if we were talking about social reform, I think it would be a lot more tricky and a lot more dicey for him to be able to deliver that majority

if he needs it. But on the whole issue of Europe, which is so part of the German DNA and something your Germans stand up for, he would for sure get a majority in Parliament. So I would want to differentiate on which issues, where he shows weakness. Definitely in foreign leadership outwards,

He also enjoys quite a bit of trust in Germany, less so when it comes to the autumn, the fall of reforms that he promised and then that just passed by with very little reform actually taking place. But he's not in a comfortable position. He's facing an uphill battle in regional elections against the far-right alternative for Germany.

So that is something he needs to bear in mind, but he's not under immediate threat. The far-right party, the AFD, the alternative for Germany that you just mentioned, I know that they have sought closer ties to the administration. And so how is that all landing with this party right now that does have quite a bit of clout in Germany? This is the really fascinating part. We did have a party conference of the far-right alternative for Germany, where Elon Musk popped up, like the voice of God.

Fight for a great future for Germany. Fight for a great future to Germany. Go, go, go. Convinced your friends, present everyone. And spoke to the masses. I think there's, like, frankly, too much of a focus on past guilt, and we need to move beyond that. We have seen Vice President J.D. Vance just days before elections in Germany.

He spoke out in favor of the far-right alternative for Germany. He said there is no place for the so-called firewall, which is the commitment of non-cooperation that all parties of the center have signed up to. No other party wants to cooperate with them. So there will be no coalition. Democracy rests on the sacred principle that the voice of the people matters. There's no room for firewalls. You either uphold the principle or you don't. And that is also a test that the conservative.

need to stand when it comes to these regional elections because they have people within their own ranks in the regions who propose cooperating with them. So, you know, slight detour into German politics, but it's a really interesting one because the AFD is happy to take the support from the Trump administration. But now their leadership has spoken out against this appetite to to, yeah, how shall we call it, take over control of Greenland. This is a real test also for the far-right alternative for Germany because they have a very interesting followership in Germany. They have people who are slightly more pro-Russian,

particularly in the eastern states. And a lot of their voters are very skeptical towards the United States. So this could really work against them as well. Yeah, it's really interesting. And just briefly tell me the position that UK Prime Minister Kirstrimer finds himself in. I know that he is deeply unpopular, even within his own party and that the Reform Party, the right-wing populist party headed by Nigel Farage, have led national polls for months. And how might that affect his ability? and his approach to these Trump threats right now.

Well, he does face a lot of criticism also from within his own party. His budget really wasn't seen as going very far. He's not very popular because of that. At the same time, he does have an overwhelming majority in the British Parliament for now. And he's not an EU member. I mean, he's a very important voice, but he doesn't have a vote within the EU context. But this raises another point. we are shifting away from a joint decision within the EU even.

Majorities are more important. This is actually a real evolution within European Union decision making. And then I've spoken to many leaders who've told me they expect to see different alliances in the future. We already have the coalition of the willing over Ukraine, including Britain, of course, and that we could see new constellations. And this could also extend into the whole. whole question of how business is done in the future.

But I just want to predict that if Donald Trump comes out here in Davos with something outrageous again, this is the kind of shock that the EU responds to and then it can suddenly deliver.

The saying never waste a crisis. It has really the effect of disciplining Europeans and reflecting on what they really stand for. And no matter who you ask, even the far right in the European Union stands,

believes in a rules-based order. So that's a very fundamental question. So we might see a surprise unity on that front. Barring some completely new development that comes out of this speech, let's just assume generally the status quo. Donald Trump sticks to his threats. that these tariffs are going to be coming into play at the beginning of February,

and he does not back down on his stated desire to own Greenland. What do you think the most likely outcome of this emergency meeting is going to be from Europe? If it's really, if we're talking really fast track here, we could see European countries, vote in favor of this anti-coercion instrument. Yeah, the bazooka thing you were talking about earlier. I would expect them to pave the way, although they can't, they won't formally do it. That's what I've been told. They wouldn't formally do it.

They will reserve that for the next regular summit, but they want to forge agreement. The actual implementation is very much at the very end. That's like the maximum escalation of a process. It's designed as a process and it's never been used before so this would be a first time but there will definitely be a headcount on who's willing to go how far

and Europeans just really need to knock their heads together and decide where they stand on that and I think that the message from Oso Fondellin that Europeans must stand on their own and it very much was in the vein of Mark Carney that the nostalgia won't get anybody anywhere and that those days weren't come back,

I think that is a real test for the Europeans, whether they can muster that courage and just keep going forward rather than keep looking back at supposedly better days. And just I realize this is a tough question because, of course, we don't know what people are going to do here. But, you know, given everything that we've talked about today and given just how steeped you are

in sort of the politics of Europe and the current state of the continent and the UK. Do you think that they're up to that task? Yes. It's never been in the EU. The interesting thing is there's never been a question of are they up to something? It's just like, do they have the will to do it at the end of the day? There's never also been a problem with diagnosing all the various problems that the EU has. look at the Mario Draghi report on economic reform, for instance.

But or having a clear-eyed view of what the US is up to, it's mustering the courage to just go that step. And this would be stepping into a new reality and recognizing that all attempts to hang on to the transatlantic relations as they were, were in vain. And the governor of California, when you Gavin Newsom is here in Davos. And of course, you know, Democrat, he is like the arch rival of Donald Trump.

They really cannot stand each other. So he clearly has an agenda. But he did have a point when he said, look, this, a year ago we should have been having this conversation. And they didn't. Okay. And now you're paying the price exactly what anyone, object, observer, would have anticipated we'd be where we are. That is true. I mean, it's, it's, that is a great weakness for the EU that they, and,

they can only get together and create new reality when they are already confronted with a new reality and they are faced with Donald Trump who keeps creating a new reality every single day. And that's why he always has the edge. I was at a gathering here where somebody predicted that Donald Trump could come out with a proposal that would once again surprise everybody and bid $2 trillion for Greenland. which is such a breathtaking amount, that nobody would be prepared once again to react. And that that is his constant advantage

that also, particularly Europeans, need too much time to then reflect and think of what to do next. And maybe even a Danish public could then become tempted if they do the maths on what that means, or a Greenland public. So this is the politics of not just flooding the... zone with constant outrageous ideas, but creating reality and then other leaders and a wannabe world power like the European Union is always caught flat-footed. And can they

break through that? I don't think so for now, but they can lay the groundwork to free themselves from that dynamic. And we might see a small step towards that on Thursday. Okay. I think that's a good place for us to end. Michaela, thank you so much for this. Really appreciate it. Here's a welcome. That's all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson.

Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca. com.