Front Burner - Is Justin Trudeau about to resign?

Episode Date: January 6, 2025

For the last couple weeks, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has apparently been thinking about his future. At the same time, he faced new calls to resign: from his colleagues, the country and political rivals.Will he make it through the day, the week or the election?Tim Powers shares his thoughts on Trudeau’s political future. He’s the chair of Summa Strategies, managing director of Abacus Data, a former Conservative adviser and a regular columnist at the Hill Times.For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

Every language is a note in the symphony of our heritage. Together, they create a harmony that cannot be silenced. Discover your voice on the new APTN Languages TV channel. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi everybody, Jamie here. So we have a great episode for you today about the political future of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

We recorded it on Sunday afternoon, but right now it's about 9pm on Sunday night. And the Globe and Mail has some reporting suggesting that on the question of Trudeau's resignation, it's not an if, it's a when. They say that it could come as soon as Monday, when you're listening to this, and likely before a big national liberal caucus meeting that's been called for Wednesday. The Globe is citing three anonymous sources. The questions that I get into with our guests today are still super relevant, even more so given what the Globe says is imminent.

Okay, we'll be on this story as it moves forward in the coming days. Here's my conversation with Tim Powers, chair of Summa Strategies, managing director of Abacus Data, a former conservative advisor and a pleasure to have you on Front Burner. Thanks so much for coming on. Great to be with you, Jamie. So why don't we start off with what we have been witnessing in Ottawa over the past couple weeks because obviously people spend time with their families, they slow down over the past couple of weeks because obviously people spent time with their families, they slowed down over the holidays, and if you are a person who unplugged a little bit from the news, God bless you over the break, what do you think were the most important developments?

What should people know? The Prime Minister went off to British Columbia to have a vacation, had a little bit of an unpleasant encounter while out there. Mr. Prime Minister. Please get the **** off of BC. Have a wonderful day now. Yeah, you suck.

Came back to Ottawa on Friday, January 3rd, had a cabinet meeting, signed a condolence book, not his own, Jimmy Carter's, and has not been seen since. But we do know, Jamie, in the great tradition of Canadian politics, yet another meeting has been called by the Liberal caucus chair who caucused with fellow liberals and decided they wanted yet another meeting to discuss the Prime Minister's fate. This comes after the Atlantic caucus of the Liberal Party, the Ontario caucus of the Liberal Party, some elements of the Quebec caucus of the Liberal Party, and many other liberals have said it's time for the Prime Minister to go. So that is where we sit as the old Christmas Day comes

upon us. That was a very good summary. Thank you for that. This meeting that's been called for Wednesday, let's assume that there is no resignation before Wednesday. What is your sense of what could happen at this meeting, which apparently could run as long as six hours? Well, liberals like long meetings that have no outcomes. You will recall that, you know, that the need for a caucus meeting dates back to June when the liberals lost the fortress liberal in St. Paul's in Toronto, formerly held by Carolyn Bennett. They wanted a meeting all summer. They've had a couple of caucus meetings where leadership has been discussed before. I think members of the caucus are hoping that members of Parliament

will stand before the microphone and say, Prime Minister, you've been great for eight years, but sir, your time is up. All of the things that they're apparently saying is unnamed sources, or they're writing in letters as if Martin Luther was still nailing them on the church door, but things don't work that way unless you're Chris Shear Freeland. So I think they're writing in letters as if Martin Luther was still nailing them on the church door, but things don't work that way unless you're Chris Shear-Freeland. So, I think they're hoping that the meeting will somehow convince the prime minister if he needs to be convinced that it's time to go, though I think if he is going to exit, will not necessarily want to be seen to be pushed out on a Wednesday and may preempt that Wednesday meeting or

do something later in the week if, in fact, he is deciding that his time is up. Because some other stuff has happened too, which certainly seems to be putting more pressure on Trudeau. The Star had a piece of reporting that Mark Carney, former Bank of Canada and Bank of England head has been working the phones, talking to liberals. And what does that say to you? People who are interested in politics and ambitious and can read the room apparently better than the prime minister are lining themselves up for potential opportunity. Though one might only be prime minister for weeks or months, you still have the opportunity

to be prime minister. So you have, you still have the opportunity to be prime minister. So you have Mark Carney out there, as the star has reported. Christy Clark, the former premier of British Columbia, is putting herself out there. Krishia Freeland, according to multiple sources, is doing this. So there are people that are there in the wings if the opportunity presents itself. they will have to determine what that opportunity actually is and does it come about. Okay, so we have this meeting coming up, a huge chunk of the caucuses telling the prime minister, at least in letters, that they've come to the consensus that it's time for him to go.

Rivals waiting in the wings. And I also think it's probably important to mention here that at the beginning of the holidays, the NDP said that they would bring down the government as soon as possible. He writes, that's why the NDP will vote to bring this government down and give Canadians a chance to vote for a government who will work for them.

No matter who is leading the Liberal Party, this government's time is up. We will put forward a clear motion of non-confidence in the next sitting of the House of Commons. So that means a Trudeau government really has very little time to try to repair these absolutely brutal poll numbers. The conservatives now hold a 26-point advantage, according to latest Nano's polling. So with the caveat that, of course, you do not live in the prime minister's head, what do you think the odds are of him resigning

by the end of the week? He's the only prime minister we ever had whose father's been a prime minister. He grew up in the political spotlight. He understands the fawning and the firing squad that come your way when you don't perform. So he watched it with his own father. He's living it a little bit himself. So he doesn't necessarily think the way other political leaders may. And he also has built up a hard layer of Teflon and a very small network of people he's talking to at the moment. the stuff you just read the polling data the unhappiness in the party that this prime minister wants to go to an election and be badly beaten.

He could step out now his party probably would still lose but perhaps they wouldn't fare as poorly and he can begin as somebody who used to he used to take counsel from Brian Mulrooney did, because Brian Mulrooney's end of term was not great. He transferred power to Kim Campbell and you'll remember the PC party went down to two. But Mr. Mulrooney, as we saw with his passing in 2024, had done a magnificent job of rebuilding his reputation, his legacy. I think Mr. Trudeau's legacy matters to him. So to your question, I think he's gonna play difficult

with us, we may all think he might step down this week, he may wait another week. But in the case of the prime minister, yeah, I think he will go, I just don't know if it will be this week. Let me ask you more about the people around him. You know, I did see some reporting over the holidays and the Hill Times that quoted MPs who are still supportive of Trudeau continuing on.

For example, International Trade Minister Mary Ing reportedly sent in an email to colleagues talking about how her constituents had positive reviews of Trudeau. And then I also saw a report in the Globe and Mail talking about how Trudeau's chief of staff, Katie Telford, was putting calls through to the PM from people who want him to stay. Like those were the calls that were getting through. And do you have a sense of how much weight those voices might have? Mary Aigle, a very capable person, former staffer for the Prime Minister, Director of Appointments, also a very close friend with Katie Telfer. So understand those networks and why they

matter. That's not to discount the influence they have, but it would suggest that I think the broad net of support is not necessarily there. And I think some of these people having seen the trials and tribulations on the conservative side recognize it's not in the party's interest to have a full on meltdown at the moment. Jamie, I talked to a lot of people over the holidays after hockey, depending on the day, this was the thing that came up the most. And I have yet to hear one person be they liberal, conservative or otherwise affiliated or unaffiliated mount a compelling argument as to why they think Justin Trudeau should stay.

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That's not a tight ball. 50%. That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Cups. Let me pick up on what you said there about how conservatives are also saying that there's no convincing argument for him to stay.

Is that what conservatives want, though? Like, if you are Pierre Polyev and the conservatives right now, do you actually want this prime minister to step down, or do you just not care what happens? You probably want him to stay. For Paul, you have a lot of his campaign to date. Probably the ease of a campaign would be a referendum on Justin Trudeau. So you want the opponent that you know, though as you saw heading into the Christmas break as the liberal troubles began to bleed out for all the nation to see, Poliev was widening his net of criticism. He's gone after Mark Carney.

He's just every bit as radical as Trudeau. The only difference is he's got a nice banker's haircut and suit, and he wears navy blue socks rather than polka dot socks. But beyond the aesthetics, he shares Trudeau's entire ideology and he represents the status quo. He's talked about Krishy or Friedland being part and parcel of the team that brought you carbon pricing and the like.

She wants a large deficit of $40 billion. He, on the other hand, wants an even larger deficit on steroids bigger than $40 billion. We know that Canadians are going to lose from all this inflation, but which one of those two is going to win? He's using his spray gun to hit more liberals, but ultimately, yes, the Conservatives would prefer Justin Trudeau to stay. But I think they're of the view that regardless of who comes in now, Conservatives have a reasonable shot at fulfilling the current prediction of pollsters.

It does seem to me though, you know, let me know if you disagree with this, that they are talking about Carney quite a bit. The conservatives like here's a quote from Paulia recently. Poor Freeland, she was forced to introduce a disastrous fall economic update written by the chair of Trudeau's Economic Growth Council, Carbon Tax Carney. Then Carney runs away from his mess and leaves her with the blame, Carbon Tax Carney is just like Justin.

You know, is that a lot of focus for a guy who's not even a politician at this point? You know, do you think that they should be worried about Carney? I think Mark Carney presents the most potential as a wild card element. I think you and I and your listeners and others know Mark Carney because of course he's had a tremendous

career in public service, both in England and Canada, but the broad public does not know him. So for the conservatives, that's both promising and potentially dangerous. Does Mark Carney, who is telegenic, who is bright, who gives a good speech, if given a showcase opportunity, a short one, albeit, is he able to turn around the fortunes of the liberals? So, conservative strategy, Jamie, as you know, dating back to the days of Stephen Harper,

has been define your opponent or potential opponents before they define you. You've seen how well that has worked as it's related to Justin Trudeau in his dwindling days. You saw an example of how that worked with both Michael Ignatyev and Stefan Dion when they were liberal leaders. So they're going after Kearney and Freeland early because that politically as a strategic approach has worked before.

["The New York Times"] Since we're catching up on these political developments over the holidays, I did want to take the opportunity to ask you about this some two-hour long podcast that Pauliev did with Jordan Peterson last week. We're not interested in the world's ethno-cultural conflicts. We welcome people— That's the shadow side of multiculturalism. We welcome the people who come from places that have been afflicted by war as long as

they leave the war behind. What did you think of Poliev's decision to do the podcast? What did just the decision to do it say to you? And were there any moments that stuck out to you and why? Well, from my own mental health and well-being, I've had my eyes and ears focused on the world junior. So I didn't dive deep into Jordan Peterson and Pierre Paulia, but watching your reaction was fascinating. Obviously, Peterson is an extremely controversial character. He is one who is, with that controversy comes polarity. I personally am no fan of Dr.

Peterson, but I think the conservative thinking there, Jamie, was, you know, Peterson has an audience, a lot of that audience supports Pierre Poli, have a lot of the criticism of previous conservative leaders following Stephen Harper was it didn't stick to their core and their brand. So speaking with Peterson is good. Peterson has a huge following.

And they knew they would get a reaction from the Liberal Party, which drove up the numbers even further. So that probably helped with fundraising. And it certainly helped Halyov frame different perspectives of what he may do. I think they're prepared to take the hit for the squeamishness or disdain that Jordan Peterson may generate in others for the opportunity of raising money and connecting with hardcore conservatives as an election is clearly not that far away. Right. I mean, just I want to read to you briefly, just some of the reactions. So Mark Miller, liberal immigration minister, tweeted, not the biggest surprise in the world to see

these two greasy walruses promote each other's ego. Is this where we're headed? I don't really know what greasy walruses means exactly, but that's what he wrote. And Jagmeet Singh actually went after how Elon Musk tweeted his support of the interview saying, "'Elon Musk and other billionaires back Pierre Poliev because if he wins, they'll get richer.' And he went on to say that Poliev

would cut healthcare and more. I know that you said that the conservatives are probably willing to take a hit here. Do you think the hit might be bigger than they think it might be? Well, don't forget the WACO video too. There seems to be an overabundance of WACO events in Canada these days, but who's behind them? Does capitalist democracy still work? That's the question being posed around

kitchen tables. But what exactly is a wacko? Is there an acceptable? Yeah, so I should say for our listeners, the conservatives also released this, I don't know how to describe it exactly this kind of comical movie, where they splice together a bunch of clips of liberals saying things that they thought were wacko. Let's start with their leader, Justin Trudeau. He invented a new economic doctrine, wackonomics. The first rule of wackonomics. No math allowed. The economy is not numbers. The economy is people. You know, there's the blackface stuff with Trudeau, but also, I don't know, some ministers talking about climate change or whatever. But yeah, please go ahead.

Yeah, here's where I struggle, I guess, in answering this question, because I admit a deficit of knowledge. Maybe you shouldn't have somebody on Front Brader as a deficit of knowledge. You certainly have lots of knowledge, but I'm weak in this area. And here's what I mean by that. Poliev somehow, more than any current Canadian politician, for good or for bad, has been able to harness the power of multiple streams of social media. I think he feels with Peterson that this is part and parcel of that exercise, that he's tapping into an audience, particularly younger people, Gen Zs and Millennials who aren't quite geriatric yet.

Younger men especially, I think. Younger men especially who feel that they are just not heard. They are not important in any political discussion. And I think he recognizes, looking at what happened in 2015 for Justin Trudeau, Trudeau won the millennial vote significantly, that if he's going to win the election, he's got to keep connecting with these people. Yeah. I mean, I'll just say, I did listen to parts of that interview with Peterson and where Poliev talks about what it's like

for young people who feel like they've done everything right and can't get ahead. You know, young people say, look, okay, I went through, I got an education, I work nonstop, and I have made the calculation that there is no mathematical path for me to own a house. Now these kids are working 20, 30 hours a week in addition to a full course load,

and they look exhausted. When I meet young people today, they are exhausted. They have bags under their eyes, and all they do is work, and the worst part about it is not that they're working all the time, it's that they don't see light at the end of the tunnel. And you know, if you are an opponent of his, you would be, I think, I say this as objectively as possible, very dumb to not listen to that and not think that it's an incredibly effective message for that group of young people.

Can I just pick up on that point, Jamie, because I think you've nailed it. Where Poliev has had success is, as Trump has had, not the only comparison I'll make between the two of them, finding a language and finding different mediums to connect with people who are feeling the disaffection, the desperation, the desperation, more than any of the other political leaders. This is happening at the same time, bringing us back to the Prime Minister, as the Prime Minister who connected so well with audiences in 2015 has seen many in his original audience migrate to Poliev because they feel they've not been heard and not their issues have not been addressed. And the liberals who used to be fantastic at communicating haven't found a way to demonstrate empathy and connection. I mean, highlighted

effectively in the disconnect, Krishir Freeland's great comments about, you know, cutting off Disney+. I mean, that's still the world the liberals are living in. [♪ Music playing. [♪ Music playing. Just to end here, so we've talked about what could happen if the prime minister does not resign. If the NDP follows through on their promise to bring down the government, we are heading into an election as early as the spring.

But if he does resign, I wonder if you could briefly take me through some of the likely scenarios here. Of course, if this does happen in the next days or weeks, we'll be getting into it in a lot more detail, but just to give a sense of people and leave them today with what might be coming down the line. Ladies and gentlemen, this segment brought to you by one of the million gambling websites you can find in Canada. No joking, ombuds person, don't cut Jamie or I off here. That's a joke. All right. So if Justin Trudeau does step down, the big battle line right now is whether there will be an interim leader for just a leadership selection period or an interim leader who will guide the Liberal Party into an election campaign. That will be fought between the liberal caucus and the liberal party national executive. There are two schools out there should Justin Trudeau go. One that says appoint

somebody like current finance minister, well like political figure, Dominic LeBlanc, let Dominic LeBlanc have a crack at Pierre Paulie, Evangeline Sing, let him go to the polls. The other school says, no, we can't go that route, not good for the party. Let's have a leadership race. Liberal constitution currently says that leadership race needs to be about four months. Good luck getting four months prorogation from the governor general. So in the next two to three weeks, we'll find out about resignation, we'll find out about prerogation, we'll find out if there's an interim leader, and we'll find out if there is a leadership race. By first, of course, we

have the six-hour Liberal Caucus meeting. Maybe all will be clear after that. You can place a wager on that. My money would be no. Okay. Tim Powers, this was a lot of fun. Thank you very much for coming on. Great to be with you Jamie thank you. All right that is all for today I'm Jamie Pueosome thanks so much for listening we'll talk to you tomorrow.