Front Burner - Is Mark Carney waiting in the Liberal wings?

Episode Date: September 12, 2024

This week, the Trudeau government announced they’ve brought in a new “special advisor” on economic growth: famed former central banker Mark Carney.The appointment has kicked the rumour mill into gear, because Carney’s name has often been floated as a potential successor to Justin Trudeau, if the beleaguered Liberal leader ever steps down.Whether or not there’s any grounding to that speculation, plenty of questions remain: will Carney’s appointment help or hurt the Liberals? And, as the party continues to flail, what’s in this for Carney?To dig into those questions we’re joined by Catherine Cullen, host of CBC Radio’s The House.For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Jamie Poisson. So on Monday, the Trudeau government announced that they've got a new special advisor on economic growth. Mark Carney, the former head of the Bank of Canada. This may not sound like a big deal.

Governments bring in advisors all the time. But for years, there's been speculation that Carney could be a potential successor to Justin Trudeau were he ever to step down, which as the liberals flail is a question on a lot of people's minds right now. So whether it's warranted or not, this new appointment has fired up the rumor mill. What might the liberals be trying to achieve by giving Carney this new role? And at a time when the party's fortunes are looking really grim, what's in it for Carney? To talk about all of this, I'm joined by Catherine Cullen, host of CBC Radio's The House. We reached her yesterday at a conference center in Nanaimo, BC, down the hall from where the liberals were holding their caucus retreat. Katherine, hey.

Hey, Jamie. Thanks for having me on. It is always so great. So a lot of our listeners are probably familiar with Mark Carney's name, and maybe they know a little bit about him, but just give us a real quick Coles Notes bio on this guy. Well, the thing people really need to know is that this is somebody with some economic heft, some economic clout. As you said, he's the former governor of the Bank of Canada. That was for five years while Stephen Harper was prime minister. He went on to be the governor of the Bank of England. Pretty extraordinary to have a Canadian fulfilling that role. And that was during the Brexit process. So some really tough times. I think he's generally

viewed as having handled that difficult situation pretty well. He's got an impressive resume. We're talking about somebody who went to Oxford. He worked at Goldman Sachs. These days, he's really engaged on climate issues. He's actually a United Nations Special Envoy on Climate and Finance. He's also the Head of Transition Investing at Brookfield Asset Management, so a big investment firm. So somebody who's talking a lot about the economy, economic growth, and the fate of the planet. Whether it was when I was doing financial reform as governor of the Bank of Canada with the financial crisis, whether it's my work internationally on climate change, it's to ensure that we get the private sector to provide what people want, what Canadians want.

That's the issue now. For a long time, as I mentioned in the intro, a lot of observers have speculated that he could be a potential successor to Trudeau, or at very least a key MP in a liberal government. I don't want to get into that speculation so much right now. We'll have plenty of time to talk about it soon. But just in addition to that lengthy resume, tell me more about why people think he would be a good political leader or a good prime minister. Why do they think that he has what it takes? I think because he has such a strong economic

vision. It's really his skills, some of his skills, at least, maybe not the ones that are most valuable in politics, but his skills in terms of like policy and economic leadership, you know, they were put to the test both in his time at Bank of Canada and as I said, Bank of England during Brexit. That was a tough slog, and he is well regarded for how he handled all of that. You have to think, too, almost nine years now that the Liberals have been in power, and one thing you do hear is that some people in the business community are less than thrilled with the Liberal government. They're worried about issues like- Understatement. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Really, how are we doing in terms of economic growth? Well, not as well as a lot of people think we should be. Issues like productivity, and admittedly, not things that most of us necessarily spend a lot of time sitting around our kitchen tables talking about, but they have knock-on effects, right?

It has to do with jobs and our standard of living. Mark Carney has thought a lot about a lot of these things. He's very engaged on these issues. And so by bringing him on board, the liberals get to say, hey, business community, we are. We're thinking about these issues. And so by bringing him on board, the liberals get to say, hey, business community, we are, we're thinking about these issues, we're thinking about the economy, and we've got this generally well-respected voice who is going to be giving us some advice now to sort of help move us forward on these issues. And just talk to me a little bit more about, you know, what they're trying to achieve by bringing him in right now, why they feel like they need him to do this in this moment

and what this role actually means. Well, I mean, listen, I've asked a few senior liberals about this and they say, you know, listen, it's a big tent party. We're always glad to have good advice. But I think there are a couple of other things going on here. It's not super clear what the role specifically entails, perhaps because we haven't really asked a lot of questions about that. It's been more the broader question of why is Mark Carney here now?

But if you look at the news release, the idea is he is going to bring ideas to the government about how to improve our economic situation, Canada's economic situation, how to create more economic growth. Canada's economic situation, how to create more economic growth. I think one thing that the Liberals are happy about in the short term over these three days of this caucus meeting in Nanaimo, British Columbia, is we're talking about Mark Carney, and it means we're doing fewer stories about whether or not Justin Trudeau can slog through all of this. It is. It's a channel changer. I mean, they're trying for more than that here. Certainly they're trying for some good news.

They're trying to show people that they're taking these big issues seriously. I'll say, too, one thing that you hear, even within the liberal fold, there are a lot of liberals who say, listen, this deal with the NDP, it pulled us further left than maybe as individuals they're comfortable with, right? They wouldn't necessarily have gone ahead with things like dental care and pharma care. So now that the deal is dead, there are some liberals who say, okay, it's time to go back to the economic center, guys. And Carney really represents that sort of centrist seriousness about the economy that

some liberals are really hungry for. Perhaps some of the more cynical among us might say that this is also a play by the Trudeau government to keep your rivals close, right? Yeah, it's funny. When I ask, again, folks in the sort of inner circle about this idea, they're like, rival? What do you? Oh, my goodness, we don't view him as a rival. It's very normal for governments to consult. But let's be real. The way this is seen from the exterior is that there's been talk for a long time

about the idea that Mark Carney would get engaged in politics. Does he want to be prime minister? Does he want to run to be an MP? And the dynamic that has developed, even though, again, these folks close to the prime minister swear that, oh, he consults with Chrystia Freeland and Melanie Jolie and he was already talking people. And it's like, you know, trying to suggest this very kumbaya. The reality is that anytime Mark Carney has said anything that has sounded at all critical of how the government is handling economic issues, for instance, he suggested that that carbon tax carve out on home heating oil that really kind of blew things up for the liberals in a lot of ways. Mark Carney said, you know, I don't know, I don't know if I would have done that. Guys, I'm not sure that is exactly the path I would have taken. That kind of stuff gets sort of shoved back in the government's face to say, well, listen, you even have people in the liberal fold with a big economic resume

who think this is not such a great idea. So I think that there is something about bringing him in, saying they're taking advice from him. I don't know if we'll ever get this level of access, but I'm really fascinated by the question of what if he says, okay, listen, carbon tax policy, which he very much, he believes in reducing emissions. But what if he says, well, maybe there's a better way you guys could be going about this. Is there any room to maneuver for the liberals on that issue? You know, he is ultimately an advisor. He's not a cabinet minister. He's not a decider. But does it create a little bit of a challenge if we realize that he is sort of just positioned in a bit of a different place than the government is on some of these issues? Yeah, I want to come

back to that. But just you mentioned Freeland. She's come out and said, you know, Mark Carney's my friend. This is so great that he is being brought into the fold in this special advisory role. You know, he's coming in to advise on the economy and she is the finance minister. And there was a lot of reporting and rumors flying around this summer that there were tensions between Trudeau's office and his deputy prime minister. And so just muse on that for me. Well, the first thing I'd say is like, spare a thought for Chrystia Freeland. Again, I know people are not sitting around, regardless of who's in power, feeling a lot of pity for Canada's finance minister, nor am I suggesting we should pity her now. But consider that this

summer, she got a whole bunch of questions about whether or not the prime minister didn't really have confidence in her and didn't really want her around that she had to take sort of ad nauseum. And now at this retreat, she has had to take a bunch of questions about whether she's actually being pushed to the side because of Mark Carney. It's really great for our team to have Mark providing advice to the Liberal Party so that we can support Canada and Canadians. Politics is brutal. It hurts. It hurts sometimes. Listen, Pierre Palliev is really trying to kind of like push on a bit of a bruise there. He started talking about the idea that Mark Carney is a phantom finance minister. Now they have a lame duck minister right now who Trudeau is pushing aside,

Now, they have a lame duck minister right now who Trudeau is pushing aside, just like he pushed aside other female ministers. And he's bringing in carbon tax Carney. And maybe trying to, like, stir things up a bit. But so many cabinet ministers on the way into this meeting have, you know, said these glowing things about Mark Carney. about Mark Carney. But the truth of the matter is for people who might have leadership ambitions at some point, I don't know if it's an entirely comfortable situation for them that Mark Carney, who hasn't been in the trenches the way some of them have over the course of the last nine years, is sort of having this moment to shine when they've been slugging it out and getting to be center stage when they have to be kind of measured about leadership ambitions that they might have right now, right? It's not a good look.

Although I suppose this is true for Mark Carney too. It's not a good look to be out there saying you want your boss's job when your boss says he's not going anywhere. Yes, that he doesn't want to give it up. Yeah. So there's some weird dynamics that are developing here for sure. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. Gem, brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people, and I have some startling numbers to share with you.

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some of the things that people like about him could also be a liability for him, right? So this idea that he is a former central banker, you know, I know he wasn't a central banker when they did all these interest rate hikes over the past couple of years, but that doesn't matter to most people. We're in such a time of economic populism. Is former central bank guy the thing that's really going to hit with voters? I don't think so, frankly. But I mean, I do think people want to feel that the economy is in capable hands. But you're right that the flip side of this is at a time where there's all this hand-wringing about interest rates. How do they feel about these institutions?

That said, again, he is a special advisor right now, right? He's not a candidate and he's certainly not running to be prime minister. So I think at this moment, it seems to be an effective tool for the liberals to employ to try to build a little goodwill in the business community and maybe amongst some liberals. I think the question of whether it's going to have any impact on most voters, that is certainly not immediately apparent. I'm also curious how they're going to deploy him. Will he have a recurring starring role? How often do we get to see Mark Carney on Parliament Hill and doing the work he's doing?

Because certainly they want to benefit from him, but they don't want a sense that he is outshining the prime minister. him, but they don't want to sense that he is outshining the prime minister. So, you know, I think he gives them a little boost, but they need to be thoughtful about how they employ him and see how all of this is playing with people too. Like, is it on their radars in the slightest? Yeah. I take your point that he's not running as a prime minister, but the conservatives, you know, they're spending a lot of time talking about him right now, right? And so, like, why do you think that is? I don't just, as an outside observer, they seem a little freaked out by it. Oh, yeah, for sure.

I remember talking with an MP months ago. You know, they've been making videos for a while now about, you know, sort of trying to bring down the impression of him. I think there are a couple of things going on there. I think that they see, the conservatives see him as a threat. If he is indeed the heir apparent, they want to get into sort of branding him right now as somebody who is problematic and can't be trusted. And I mean, the big thing, Andrew Scheer made an appearance here in Nanaimo just as the caucus retreat was kicking off.

Pierre Polyev has been out this week talking about this stuff, too. They're really trying to push this message that, A, more of the same, and B, this idea, carbon tax Carney. Because, of course, Pierre Polyev's whole political existence in the last two years, so much of it is focused around this idea of getting rid of the carbon tax. So just trying to push them all in the same pile. of getting rid of the carbon tax. So just trying to push them all in the same pile. At the end of the day, Mark carbon tax Carney loves the same policies that Justin Trudeau has imposed on Canadians.

They're basically the same people, out of touch elites. And my worry is that he's going to push for a higher carbon tax. And we know that because when Trudeau relented under my pressure and paused the carbon tax on home heating for oil-heated homes. Carbon tax Carney stood up and said, no, there should be a tax on home heating right now. In other words, carbon tax Carney believes the tax doesn't go far enough.

I have quotes from his book here. Pierre Pallia was like no big fan of central bankers. People may or may not remember during the leadership, he was saying he'd fire the current governor of the Bank of Canada. But I think that they do see him as a potential threat and they just want to cut that off any benefit the liberals could get here as quickly as humanly possible. Yeah, yeah. They're bringing up that, you know, this idea that they're all the same. They're bringing up that he's linked to like the World Economic Forum. Pallia tweeted tweeted out on x i have such a hard time calling it that um that that uh carney worked for the quote multi-national billionaires club he he claimed that he wanted to quadruple

the carbon tax although i do want to be clear uh there's no evidence for that car Carney has never said that he thinks the carbon tax should be increased at all. But look, like we've been talking a lot during this conversation about, you know, why the liberals might want Carney and what the conservatives might do to counter that. But I feel like a really important question on the table here is why would Carney want any role really in this government, including an even larger one than the special economic advisor, right? Trudeau's campaign director just quit. A bunch of chiefs of staff are set to leave. A senior minister, Seamus O'Regan, quit in July. There are all these rumors swirling that one of his ministers in Quebec, Lieutenant Pablo Rodriguez, is on his way out to jump into provincial politics in Quebec. The NDP, as you mentioned, just ended their agreement with the Liberals. They've been tanking in the polls for the last year. So why would Carney want to yoke himself to this party at a moment when everyone else seems to

be bailing on them? It is such a good question, Jamie, that I actually asked Mark Carney that when he came to talk to us yesterday. He had a few answers. He says, first of all, I have a couple of simple rules. One, if the Prime Minister of Canada asked talk to us yesterday, he had a few answers. He says, first of all, I have a couple of simple rules. One, if the Prime Minister of Canada asks me to do something, I will do it. I will serve to the best of my ability. He also likes to talk about this idea of, he says, it's not about being something, it's about doing something. being something, it's about doing something. That the issues that are at play here, transitioning to a low carbon future, Canada's economic future, that those things are so important that he just felt compelled to step in and see what he could do to help.

So that's the official answer. I think if we take a little step back. We would also say there's been a little bit of a sense of like, all right, sir, your name has been floated for quite some time now. Are you in or are you out? There was a story in the Globe and Mail earlier this summer that said the prime minister had asked Carney like, hey, anytime if you want to be a part of the team, buddy. you want to be a part of the team, buddy. So if he wants to continue to be seen as somebody with a big political future, you know, the door has been opened and maybe it was time for him to walk through it. But I think the issues you raised there are not insignificant ones. That said, if he is going to have a political future, he probably has more credibility the closer he gets to the inside of the political process, right? Like it's true that there are leaders who kind of like descend from on high

and show up and have to find a seat, but you want to be in the House of Commons, right? Like is he going to make the next move? Yeah. And show the people in the party too, that you are willing to do what it takes and slug it out with them when times are tough. And let's be fair, times are pretty tough right now for the Liberals.

And just one last question for you, because during Nanaimo, I know you're talking to lots of Liberals there. Do they think that there's some sort of plan happening behind the scenes here for Trudeau to step down and Carney to take over? I don't think that that is what's going on on that level. I mean, the liberals that I talk to say, I think everybody understands that right now in this moment, and I will say there's that big by-election, a couple of big by-elections happening on Monday that could create a bit of a significant shift in the power dynamic. But right now the vibe really is Justin Trudeau has earned the right to decide how he goes out. And he has been really clear when asked again and again that he is sticking around.

There's a sense he really wants this fight with Pierre Polyev, that he believes that given the opportunity, he can kind of like pull this one out of the fire, but that it might come down to campaign time to really make it happen. Whatever you think of all that, he seems to want to stick around. And it is not obvious that there is going to be an immediate opportunity to replace him. Now, he could change his mind. I think everybody acknowledges that, but I don't think we're going to get a whole lot of warning that it's coming if he does indeed decide that he has had enough of this. Most of the people I speak to say if they had to bet, they think he's going to be leading the Liberal Party in the next election. So there's not some grand design of, you know, handing the baton to Carney. And again,

when I ask folks about the idea of bringing somebody who might be perceived as a rival into the fold, the people around the prime minister say, have said to me, like, you know, it's just about having everybody contribute. And we're a party that, you know, wants people with big ideas. That said, my colleague, our colleague, Louis Blouin over at Rajo Canada did a little like look inside the room that they put up online. And he had a senior liberal quoted as saying, well, you know, the prime minister likes a little bit of competition in the room. Suggesting, you know, not amongst himself and Carney, but Carney and other potential successors. So where this all leads, I don't think that's entirely clear right now.

And what happens if there are some ruffled feathers with some of the other people who might have leadership aspirations? I don't know. But the door was thrown open. Mark Carney has put one foot through it. And I think it's going to be very... Yeah, one foot. That's it, one foot. So does the other foot go through? Does he make a run for it? And also, how does all of this play politically? Does Pierre Polyev succeed in creating an impression of this guy who is an elite and out of touch and, you know, not the right thing for Canada? Or is this one brick to help the liberals rebuild at a time where they're really struggling right now? Again, we spent most of this retreat in the media talking about Mark Carney and a little bit less of it talking about the liberals leadership woe. So even maybe like a day or two reprieve right now makes it seem like it wasn't such a bad plan. I feel like we're going to be right

back to that next week. Catherine, always such a pleasure. Thank you very much. Thank you, Jamie. Thanks for making the time. Thank you, Jamie. Thanks for making the time. That's all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.