Front Burner - Is Trudeau in dire need of a new story?

Episode Date: January 10, 2024

While Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has been campaigning across the country, gaining momentum in the polls, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s message of positivity and progress is failing to connect. After eight years in power, is the long-time Liberal leader in dire need of a new story? What political narrative could captivate Canadians in 2024? And what story is Poilievre betting on? CBC’s Aaron Wherry explains. For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Damon Fairless. It's time to bring in the branding and marketing guru. If you're Justin Trudeau, the prime minister is in trouble in the polls, way behind conservative leader Pierre Palliev in terms of preferred prime ministers.

When news hit late last year that the prime minister's office was hiring a new executive director of communications focused on, quote, aligning the entire team under a clear narrative, it wasn't that surprising for Ottawa watchers. There are analysts who say that Justin Trudeau badly needs a new story to captivate Canadians. On the other hand, conservative leader Pierre Pauliev has been campaigning across the country and gaining momentum in the polls. Who's ready for some common sense? Trudeau has been trying to govern through a cost of living and housing crisis, inflation, allegations of foreign interference, and a divisive war in the Middle East. And after eight years in power, the Liberal leader's once-fresh message of positivity and progress,

well, it's failing to connect. What we're seeing with Polyev is that Polyev is doing in 2023 what Trudeau did in 2015. He's now grabbing the hope agenda. He's becoming the party of hope. And Trudeau's now become the party of the status quo. For more on this, CBC's Aaron Weary is back with us today to explain why Trudeau and the liberals so badly need a new narrative. Hey, Aaron, it's great to have you back on FrontBurner. Thanks. Hey, happy to be here. Okay, so here we are. It's the start of 2024, and Justin Trudeau has got some problems domestically, internationally, politically.

But you argue that one of his biggest issues is a lack of narrative. Why is that? Yeah, look, as you say, there's lots of problems for the Trudeau government right now, lots of issues in the world, in the country, real concerns that people have. But, you know, part of, I think, the liberal struggle right now is that they don't have a narrative about what they're doing and why they're doing it and what kind of country and future they're trying to build. and what kind of country and future they're trying to build. You know, when we talk about narrative, it can be kind of an overused phrase, and it can seem kind of contrived and phony in kind of the way we talk about politics. But it's, you know, people need stories,

and the best ones are based on something real and something people are experiencing, and they're powerful in politics and in life. And that's, I don't know that the liberals could tell you what exactly their narrative, their argument is right now. So why is a compelling story so important in politics, particularly as we're thinking about an election? Yeah, I think there's so much going on on a day-to-day basis.

There's so much that the government is trying to do or that the government is dealing with or responding to. And I think there needs to be, any government needs to have an argument about why it's doing the things it's doing, how it's choosing its priorities, and what its vision is for the future of the country. And that, if you go back to 2015 when Trudeau got elected, that was a real strength that they had at that point, that they had a compelling narrative.

They had an idea and it seemed to fit with what the public, where the public was at at that point. And at this point, you know, in 2023, 2024 now, it's not quite clear what the liberal argument is exactly. You know, they're starting to piece together an argument against their main competition, but it's not quite clear, you know, all of the things the Trudeau government is doing, where it's putting its energy, where it's putting its actions. It's not quite clear what they think that adds up to, or how they think that responds to what the country needs right now. You know, you mentioned that Trudeau's government comes into office with a clear and strong political narrative back in 2015. It was a simple, effective story.

Sunny ways, my friends, sunny ways. It's time to raise taxes on the wealthiest 1% so we can cut them for the middle class. We'll kickstart the economy by investing in jobs and growth and lowering taxes for our middle class. That's real change. I guess I have a two-part question. Can you kind of remind folks what that narrative was and why it was so effective? And then talk about how that story seems to be backfiring for the Liberals. Why it was so effective. And then talk about how that story seems to be backfiring for the liberals.

Yeah. If you go back to, you know, 2015 when the liberals were starting to campaign and then coming to government, there were a bunch of, as you-sentence idea that, you know, Justin Trudeau was a different kind of leader who was going to lead a different kind of government, a better kind of government that was going to ensure economic prosperity or that economic growth was shared broadly, you know, the idea of the middle class and those working hard to join it. And it worked in part because he was up against a government, the conservative government of Stephen Harper, that had been in office for, you know, nearly 10 years, had been a kind of incrementalist government

that hadn't wanted to take on certain big challenges, had wanted to kind of act in small measures, and, you know, had tried to shrink the role of the federal government. And the liberals came along and said, are you happy with the way things are? If not, let's try something very different. And that seemed to fit. It acted as not only a kind of response to the Harper government years, but also to kind of where the public mood was at at that point. There wasn't, the economy wasn't booming, things weren't going great necessarily in the country. So let's try something different. And, you know, that worked for 2015. It was probably enough that that's that idea still in 2019 to win them re-election. But now in 2023, 2024,

to win them re-election. But now in 2023, 2024, the idea that, you know, this new kind of government, this different kind of governance approach is the way to do things isn't necessarily in evidence, right? The middle class isn't feeling great. There was this really interesting poll from Polara out last month that showed, you know, optimism about the future of the middle class is down like 20 points. And the feeling that the middle class is doing well isn't there, you know, interest rates are up, inflation is up, housing prices are high. And so the idea that Trudeau's approach is better is the better approach isn't necessarily an evidence. I mean, the thing to me that really stands out, and we've covered a lot on the show, but the housing crisis you mentioned, we've also got, you know, food prices are a real challenge for a lot of folks, including a lot of people in the middle class with food banks being, you know,

being used so much more than they ever were. So that argument of, you know, helping the middle class get ahead, helping people enter middle class, those sunny ways. It feels like that's really dissipated for real, right? Yeah. I mean, it's hard to, it's hard to kind of be selling optimism when people aren't feeling optimistic. And like, look, I mean, it's, it's fair to say that any government in Trudeau's position right now would have a hard time, right? It's been in office for, for more than eight years. would have a hard time, right? It's been in office for more than eight years. The economic conditions aren't great. You know, any government, liberal or conservative of any prime minister in this situation would be struggling somewhat. But that only makes it sort of that much more incumbent on the liberals to find a better argument, not least because they're faced with a conservative leader who has

quite smartly picked up on where the public mood is and said, the reason that things are bad right now is all because of Justin Trudeau. And we need to not only replace him, but bring in a conservative government that will deal with these acute, immediate concerns. After eight years of Trudeau, life is increasingly a living hell for the working class people of this country. After eight years of Justin Trudeau, life costs more, work doesn't pay, housing costs have doubled,

crime, chaos, drugs and disorder are common in our streets. We will clear the gatekeepers. We will remove the privileged class that is inside the castle walls and We will remove the privileged class that is inside the castle walls. And we will open up the gates of opportunity to anyone who's prepared to work hard. It's common sense, the common sense of the common people united. Polyev argument is that, you know, Justin Trudeau is to blame and a conservative government will

make things cost less. And that is responding to something real and something that people feel. And you can, you know, you can argue with his diagnosis, you can argue with his prescription, but the message, the idea, the narrative matches up with something that people are feeling. I want to talk more about that, the conservative narrative and Pierre Polyev in a second. But before we go there, the liberals recently hired someone to deal with their lack of a clear narrative. This new executive director of communications, Max Veliket. He's known for his work with younger folks, millennials, Gen Z. So I guess I'm curious, what kind of story do you think might appeal to that demographic? Well, I guess we're going to find out. I mean, I think

if young people are feeling pessimistic about the future, they have any number of reasons to feel pessimistic, right? You know, it's not just housing costs, climate change, political dysfunction in the world, wars. There's lots of things going on that if you're a young person, I can I can imagine you are not feeling super keen on the future. And I think that is, you know, it's interesting in some of the interviews Justin Trudeau has given, especially around the end of the year, he talked about young people specifically. And we made a commitment to them. We were going to make things better, even as we knew things were really, really difficult. Well, there's a global context right now that means we have even more to do. And I need to keep the promise of those young people. And that's exactly why we're focusing so much on delivering that kind of progress and the kind of sustainable future that we know they need.

In part, I think, because they're so key to the liberal sort of voting coalition, but also because I think it, you know, it is a problem that he came in in 2015, and he talks about this. He came in in 2015 with the promise of sort of restoring optimism and hope for the future and a feeling that things were going to get better.

And now it doesn't seem like that. And, you know, he needs to get back to that promise and show that it's still there. And I think that's a big problem for him. And I think part of it is rebuilding a narrative. You also need actions to underpin that narrative. But it is, they need to find a way to explain to people that there is a reason to feel good or feel positive about the future, or at least feel positive about the way the liberals

are approaching the future. And I mean, I guess you could argue that they have done this to some extent, right? With, you know, childcare, with dental coverage, is that not enough? Or, you know, how do they leverage the policies that they've already implemented do they need to implement more policies that are directed at this demographic yeah i mean i think on the available evidence it isn't enough uh just on the polling it doesn't look like it's enough i mean i think when an election comes it's possible that they'll be able to say if if it's a different party in power you know the things we've done on child care the things on dental care those things are going to disappear and that's why it's a different party in power, you know, the things we've done on child care, the things on dental care, those things are going to disappear.

And that's why it's important for us to be reelected. We don't yet really know exactly what the Conservatives are going to run on. We know they want to run on less spending and reducing the footprint of government, but we don't exactly know what that would mean in practice. But, you know, you can't run on it, could be worse. But I mean, maybe to put a finer point on that, you know, there is the path of fear tactics, right? So how effective do you think that kind of story might be?

So it's, you know, they've started to do, they've started to focus more on Pierre Palliev in the last couple months, two or three months, and really focusing on his words and actions and trying to build up an idea of what he represents and what he would be like in office, you know, drawing, you know, loudly drawing comparisons between him and Donald Trump. Fake news. Fake news. The left-wing censorship regime.

Their woke censorship ideology. We have to stop with political correctness. Woke political correctness. Defeating the radical left. Radical leftist authoritarian agenda. We want those. And I think going negative or however you want to put it, it's, you know, to a certain extent, it can have an impact. And if the liberals are going to get reelected, there is naturally going to be an appetite for some kind of change. And so for the liberals to get reelected, there is naturally going to be an appetite for some kind of change. And so for the liberals to get reelected, they have to make the argument that change, as much as people may want

some kind of change, that that kind of change, Pierre Paglia's kind of change, would be bad. That's part of the argument for getting reelected is, you know, yeah, okay, you may not love us the way you did in 2015, but look, that's a choice here. You have to choose between us and the other guys, and the other guys are unacceptable. And so that's part of it, but it's not, I don't know that any liberal would say that's enough. I'm going to go. organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people and I have some startling numbers to share

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So, you know, Pierre Polyev is a very talented communicator and readily will flesh out arguments in speeches. And he's much more adept as a politician than either of the last two conservative leaders and is arguably kind of – you can draw parallels between him now and Justin Trudeau in sort of the pre-election years before 2015. Polyev tells, it's a really simple story, which is you are unhappy with the way things are. Things aren't going great. And that's because of the way Justin Trudeau governs. His spending has led to inflation and that's driven up interest rates. Liberal inflation has sent food, housing, gas prices soaring. His government hasn't been able to get things done on things like housing,

and that's why it's so hard to buy a house. If the government stands in the way of you getting a home, it stands in the way of your entire life going forward. The good news is housing costs were not like this before Justin Trudeau, and they won't be like this after he's gone. He's taken all of the real world conditions and things the Trudeau government has, a lot of the sort of things the Trudeau government has tried to do over the last eight years and connected them in a way that says Trudeau is at fault and we need,

you know, things will be solved once we get rid of Justin Trudeau. And there's lots of other things going on. But the main part of his argument is everything is bad. It's all Justin Trudeau's fault and we'll make things cost less. And that, you know, at a moment like this, that's a pretty powerful argument. And we'll see how it develops over the next two years, both as economic conditions maybe change, but also as the focus becomes on exactly what the choice is. But right now, he's got a very powerful argument.

And as much as the liberals may disagree with it, I think they have to accept that he's making a compelling argument that they have to find a response to. I think the thing that stands out to me about how he's doing this, right, is I'm thinking back to this 15-minute video that Polyev put out about the housing crisis. And, I mean, what strikes me about what Polyev is able to do is that he's connecting with folks. I'm thinking about that viral video where he's eating an apple and, you know, being short with a journalist who's questioning him. A lot of people would say that you're simply taking a page out of the Donald Trump book. Probably like which people would say that?

Well, I'm sure a great many Canadians, but... Like who? I don't know who, but... Well, you're the one who asked the question, so you must know somebody. Okay. I'm sure there's some out there, but anyway... But what comes across there is that, I wonder if part of it is that, you know, people are frustrated and he's able to voice that frustration to some extent. Yeah, I think so. I mean, I think that Pierre Polly, if you go back to when he was an MP and a parliamentary secretary and a minister in the Harper government, he was a question period combatant.

That was kind of his role. That was kind of his reputation. As for the member trash talking, he should leave that for his rap career. Vanilla Ice should luck out because Vanilla Not-So-Nice is in the house. Since he's the skipper of the ship, answer the question, not Gilligan. I always like to hear a question from the sinking ship way over there in the corner. I remember there being questions like, well, you know, how would he fare as leader? Like, how would that kind of his kind of approach to politics, how would that do

if he was in a leadership role? And I think, I don't know, maybe at a different moment, it wouldn't resonate as well. But right now, if people are frustrated, not only with the situation, but also with the government, with the prime minister in particular, a guy who's standing up and throwing punches and sticking it to the prime minister, you know, that's, there's an obvious moment for that. And so it's, it's possible that, that Pierre's politics and his approach to politics have kind of found the right moment, I guess. So, I mean, he's maybe finding his moment. He's, he's got a really solid, fairly simple, and I think, you know, effective story at the moment, but he's been's got a really solid fairly simple and and i think you know effective story at the moment

but he's been criticized for avoiding making policy promises is that a strategic choice is just is it better to not kind of uh show your cards so to speak yeah i mean i think it's a an approach as old as politics which is you know if if you're in opposition, you know, not only is your role sort of to oppose the government and to hold it to account, but it's also better off to leave the target on the government and let the government's own policies remain the focus and, you know, let them try to defend themselves rather than, you know, you putting something out and trying to defend it. I don't, I think that, you know, opposition leaders have always done that to a certain extent. I don't know that you can do it forever. I mean, you obviously can't do it once an election comes.

And I'm not sure whether Polyev can necessarily wait until an election to start rolling some things out. Okay, so we've been talking about story, but I also kind of want to pull out a bit and talk about history. I think if we look back historically at Canadian politics, now that there have been a few long-serving prime ministers, but more recently it seems pretty reliable that we flip back and forth between the liberal government and conservative government once a decade. So with all the importance that that story obviously plays in politics, I guess in this case, does it really matter? Is Trudeau's time up?

Does he have a natural expiry date? Yeah, look, sometimes we make politics out to be way more complicated than it is, right? Like if you looked at the economic conditions, if you looked at how long Trudeau's been in office, you would just sort of naturally say, if you blocked out the characters and the stories and the details, you would sort of naturally say, okay, he's probably coming up to the end of his time as prime minister. You know, look, like people, in addition to the economic conditions, people just get tired of seeing your face and hearing your voice at some point. And, you know, as you say, like, I mean, it will be pointed, it's already been pointed out a hundred times, it will be pointed out another hundred times between now and the next election that the last prime minister to

lead his party to four consecutive election victories was wilford laurier more than a century ago and uh that's just sort of how it goes that said you never know right you can never say that anything is is inevitable because politics can surprise you and the facts on the ground can, can change things like, you know, yes, it hasn't been done that somebody's led their party to four consecutive elections since Laurier, but sooner or later, somebody's going to do it, uh, again, probably. And, you know, maybe it'll be this time it's, you never quite know. And I, and I, And at the end of the day, as much as sort of the objective external conditions matter, Canadians still end up having to make a choice. And, you know, so the liberals, if they can make an argument for themselves, you can't completely foreclose on the idea that they could

win another election. Right, Aaron. Thanks so much. Really appreciate it. Anytime. All right, that's all for today. I'm Damon Fairless. Thanks for listening to FrontBurner. I'll talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.