Front Burner - Israel defies global outcry over Gaza City, West Bank

Episode Date: August 25, 2025

Airstrikes and tanks continued pounding the outskirts of Gaza City over the weekend, as Israel’s plans to seize the strip’s largest urban centre continued. A much bigger operation, widely condemned by the international community, could begin within days or weeks.This is all happening as the world’s leading authority on food crises is saying that Gaza City and surrounding areas — currently home to half of the territory’s population — is now gripped by famine, and that it’s likely to spread across the rest of the strip unless a ceasefire is negotiated.Meanwhile, Israel recently approved a major settlement plan which would functionally divide the West Bank in two, blunting hopes for a future Palestinian state.Given all this — what’s the latest on ceasefire negotiations, and is there any sense that Western states have plans to step up pressure on Israel over either Gaza or the West Bank?Today, Gregg Carlstrom, the Economist’s longtime Middle East correspondent, is back on the show to discuss all of this. For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

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Air strikes and tanks continued pounding the outskirts of Gaza City over the weekend, as Israel's plans to seize the largest urban. and center continued. About half of Gaza's population is currently living in the city. A wide-scale operation could begin within days. This is all happening as the world's leading authority on food crises is saying that the city and surrounding areas are gripped by famine, and that it's likely to spread throughout the territory unless a ceasefire is negotiated and aid restrictions lifted. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that he has instructed officials to negotiate with Hamas to release the hostages and end the war on, quote, acceptable

terms. But what are those terms? Early last week, Hamas agreed to a ceasefire and hostage exchange proposal put together by Egypt. Why hasn't Israel agreed to it? Today, Greg Kohlstrom, the economist's longtime Middle East correspondent, is back on the show. We're going to discuss what, if anything, could bring an end to this. We're also going to discuss Israel's recently approved E1 Settlement Plan deemed illegal under international law, which would divide the West Bank into two and cut it off from East Jerusalem, blunting the chances of a Palestinian state. Greg, hi, thank you so much for coming back onto the show. It's always really great to have you. Thanks for having me again.

I'd like to start with the famine designation for Gaza City and the surrounding areas where about half the population or a million people currently are. This was made by the Integrated Food Security Phase classification or the IPC. And as I mentioned, the IPC is considered like a gold standard on hunger crises. This is the first time that the IPC has declared a famine in the Middle East. Can you just tell me more about what they said? So the IPC, which is this consortium of UN agencies and human rights groups, they have a five-point scale for assessing hunger. One means everybody has enough food, things are okay, five means famine.

And so the assessment that they made a few days ago is that, as you say, Gaza City has now entered phase five, entered famine. And the rest of Gaza is either in phase four, which is still pretty catastrophic. and on the brink of famine or phase three. And not only that, but that they expect this famine designation to expand. So right now it covers Gaza City, but they said at some point in the not too distant future, it's likely to expand to cover places like Lir al-Balach, which is a city in the central part of Gaza. I think not surprising that Gaza City crossed that threshold first because it has been so caught off from aid. The body adds that the famine in Gaza is entirely man-made and that it can be halted and reversed.

Israel has rejected the findings of the report, saying it's false and biased. Obviously, all of Gaza was under a blockade from the beginning of March until late May. But then even once Israel allowed aid to resume in May, most of it was directed to central and southern Gaza, and very, very little was reaching Gaza City. And I think what's important to know about this IPC designation is that it's a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator. In other words, when they say a famine is happening, it doesn't mean that people have run out of food and a catastrophe is about to occur. It means that catastrophe is occurring. Gaza has crossed certain thresholds, statistical thresholds, death by starvation, malnutrition, wasting in children.

And because it has crossed those thresholds, Gaza City now meets the criteria for famine. So even if you open the borders tomorrow and allow huge amounts of food to go into Gaza and you make it safe enough to distribute that food, you already have people who have died and will die of hunger, you have children whose growth has been stunted permanently because they haven't had enough to eat for months now. And the consequences of that are going to be with Gaza for a very long time. And maybe worth noting here, only four famines have been declared by the IPC since it was established in 2004, most recently in Sudan last year.

Netanyahu has said that the findings are a lie and that the IPC has been manipulated by Hamas. There is no policy of starvation in Gaza, and there is no starvation in Gaza. We enable humanitarian throughout the duration of the war to enter Gaza. Otherwise, there would be no Gazans. And what is interdicted the supply of humanitarian aid is one force, Hamas. Again, the reversal of truth. Do he or his government have any evidence to back that up? No, they don't.

I mean, they have been making this claim for months that, you know, anyone who says that there's hunger in Gaza is doing, you know, is working for Hamas, is doing it at the behest of Hamas. And those are just incredibly disingenuous allegations. When you talk privately to officials in the Israeli military, even some Israeli politicians, they will acknowledge privately that there is a very real problem of hunger in Gaza. And I think the IPC in particular, as you mentioned, they've only made a handful of famine designations in recent decades. They've often been criticized for being too slow, for being too cautious, for not announcing that a particular place.

has crossed that threshold into famine. So they are not the kind of organization that just throws around this designation willy-nilly. The fact they made it in Gaza City tells you that there is a catastrophic problem there. Right. And I know in the far north,

it probably would also be categorized in phase five, but the IBC hasn't made that designation because they say that they don't have the data for it. So it sort of speaks to how careful they are. Gaza City, of course, isn't just facing famine. It is facing a ramped-up military operation by the IDF. We're speaking Sunday afternoon, Toronto Time, and just talk to me about what we saw over the weekend and where things stand as of today. I think what we're seeing right now is still sort of the prelude to this promised major Israeli offensive to occupy Gaza City or destroy Gaza City, depending on which is.

Israeli politician you're listening to. We've seen very heavy bombardment. Israel has sent additional troops to places like Jebelia, which is a refugee camp in Gaza City. So steadily escalating, but it isn't yet the sort of major, you know, multiple division level offensive that the Israelis have threatened. I think that is still several weeks away, probably. That's going to require calling up a very large number of reservists, and we haven't seen the army do that yet. And so I think we're still in the early days of that. But nonetheless, the consequences of it have been horrific for Palestinians. You know, every day there are reports of dozens of people being killed and people fleeing, but not being sure where they're supposed to flee.

Last week, a report from The Guardian and the Israeli-Palestinian publication 972 magazine revealed that the Israeli military's own classified data shows that 83% of those killed in Gaza since October 7th have been civilians. And I just wonder if you could put that into context for me in the history of modern warfare. How exceptional is a civilian death tool of 83%. It's very exceptional. It's a shocking number. I mean, if you compare it to other wars in the Middle East, the American-led wars in Afghanistan, or if you compare it to the war in Ukraine, it's a figure that is two, three, even four times higher than what you would see in many modern conflicts. It's something that you would associate with the darkest days of the wars in Yugoslavia, the ethnic cleansing in Yugoslavia. I think The fact that that number is so high in Gaza, it reflects a couple of things. One is that the civilian population has nowhere to go, right? There is a principle enshrined in international law that people are civilians are supposed to have the right to flee a war zone and go somewhere safe. But for Palestinians in Gaza, that's a very fraught right to try an exercise because they have a well-grounded fear that if they leave Gaza, Israel won't allow them back.

And they also don't have anywhere to go. They can't go into Israel, which is a warring party in this conflict, and Egypt, for a variety of reasons, is not willing to let large numbers of Palestinians in. So the population is trapped, which is somewhat unusual in modern war. And then Israel has used just a shocking amount of air power, has dropped an unbelievable amount of bombs on a very, very small space. So given those dynamics, given this sort of urban war where people are kettled in, I guess in some ways it's unsurprising that the number is that high, but it doesn't make it any less shocking or any less horrific. Despite what some Israeli officials have said about this offensive in Gaza City being focused on targeting Hamas militants in a way that is, quote, gradual, precise, and targeted, others in the government. have said differently, L.A. Cohen, an Israeli security cabinet minister, told Channel 14 that, quote, Gaza city itself should be exactly like Rafa, which we turned into a city of ruins.

Is this offensive the first phase of a full-on occupation of the city and eventually the rest of the strip? What do you think the rationale is here? I think if we've seen one thing over the past two years, it's that when these sorts of hardline voices and the government promised to do something, more often than not, they end up doing it. The rationale for it, you know, I think like everything in Israel these days, the rationale has more to do with domestic politics than anything else. If the Israeli army is determined to reoccupy Gaza City, that is going to require tens of thousands of soldiers called up in perpetuity to police Gaza City to serve as an occupying force. It's going to cost untold billions because Israel will then be responsible for every

that happens in Gaza City. It's going to put a big burden on the army. It's going to put a big burden on the state. And no one can quite articulate how occupying Gaza City serves any of Israel's goals in this war of securing the release of its hostages or removing Hamas as a governing entity or a military force in Gaza. They can't explain how, you know, this is going to be the thing after two years of horrific war. That will somehow change the course. of the conflict. So I think why are they doing it? What's the rationale for it? It's largely because Prime Minister Netanyahu doesn't want to end the war. He doesn't want to lose his right-wing coalition partners. And they want to occupy Gaza City because they see that as a first step towards

rebuilding the Israeli settlements that were dismantled 20 years ago. And is this sort of the primary reason why we just can't get to a ceasefire right now? Because as I understand it, Israel was supposed to give an answer last week to this ceasefire proposal put together by Egypt, I believe, that Hamas had agreed to. So for almost two years now, whenever we've talked about a ceasefire, we have said Hamas wants a permanent ceasefire, they want a permanent end to the war. Israel is only willing to offer a temporary truce, a pause in the fighting. What's happened over the past few weeks is that dichotomy has flipped.

Hamas is now willing to accept the deal that has been on the table for months, which is a 60-day pause in the fighting, the release of some hostages for some Palestinian prisoners, and then negotiations about a permanent end to the war. But Israel is no longer willing to accept that deal. Netanyahu now says he wants a permanent end to the conflict, but on Israel's terms. and those terms are Hamas has to agree to disarm.

It cannot remain in Gaza, nor can the Palestinian Authority come back to govern Gaza. He's asking for things that he knows Hamas is not going to agree to. They haven't made those concessions after two years of war. I do not expect they're going to start now. So just as Hamas is amenable to a temporary deal, Netanyahu has flipped his position and decided that he rejects one. And again, he's doing that for his own domestic political reasons. He's doing that because he doesn't want to end the war right now. He wants to keep his coalition intact.

He wants to head off early elections. And so if Hamas is now willing to make a temporary deal, Netanyahu is no longer willing to make the deal that he said he's supported for the past year and a half. One question I have for you related to domestic politics in Israel. If there is such an overwhelming support for a ceasefire agreement, right? There was a protest last week, which I think was one of the largest since the war began. Blocking roads, burning tires, shutting down workplaces. Thousands of protesters led by hostage families are escalating their campaign.

In response to the Israeli government's announcement, it intends to escalate the war. This is a war that we could stop and we should stop. Why can't there be some other kind of coalition that forms to take on the right wing? I think you have two problems right now with trying to imagine an alternative government in Israel. One is that if you want to bring down the current government through a no-confidence motion, you need some members of that government to vote in favor of that motion in Parliament, which they can't do anyway right now. parliament is in recess until October, so nothing can happen until their summer break ends. But

the members of the coalition, you know, they can read the polls and they know that every poll says in the next election, their parties are not going to do well. So it is in their self-interest not to bring down this government to remain in power for as long as they can. So that's an obstacle on the coalition side. And then on the opposition side, you know, the perennial problem of Israeli politics in the age of Netanyo is just that the opposition is disorganized, it's not united, it's not focused, and it's afraid to challenge Netanyo, is afraid to strongly make a case for why Israel should take a different path. They have not been able to, you know, sort of foment or revolt in the ranks of the government or try to bring about

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down the road. We do. Then with the caring support of Desjordan insurance, I pronounce you covered for home, auto, and flexible life insurance. For life's big milestones, get insurance that's really big on care at Dejardin.com slash care. I'd like to talk with you a little bit about what has been taking place in the West Bank. Firstly, there has been this campaign of violence by Israeli settlers on Palestinians living in the West Bank, from arson to fatal clashes. And just, Can you tell me about some of the reporting, both from journalists and human rights organizations, that has found that in many cases the IDF has supported settlers carrying out these attacks?

Yeah, I think in many cases, you can call settler violence in the West Bank. It's absolutely state-tolerated, and in some cases it is state-supported. And they followed the pattern that we've seen across the Jordan Valley. Step one, deprive the Palestinian villagers of their livelihood. by stealing their sheep. No need for disguise or haste. Police, army, no problem. Step two, deprive the Palestinians of their homes

and thus their land. They're armed. It's not a new thing in some ways. The army has always been reluctant to protect Palestinians, which it's obligated to do because it is the occupying power in the West Bank. So under international law, supposed to protect the Palestinian population.

It doesn't do that. Soldiers stand by idly while Palestinians are attacked or while their property is burned, while Israeli settlers commit crimes. Those crimes are almost never investigated, let alone prosecuted, let alone leading to convictions. But it's gotten worse over the past two years. You've had a government that has been more tolerant of settler violence that has ended, for example, the practice of administrative detention, which is holding people, both Palestinians and Israelis, in some cases, without trial when they're suspected of being involved in violence. It's ended that practice only for Israeli settlers. It continues to do it for Palestinians.

And the army, which is increasingly, particularly in its combat units, increasingly populated by either settlers or people who are ideologically aligned with the settler movement, you have units. in the army that are, you know, very inclined now to turn a blind eye. So, of course, it is within this context that the Ewan West Bank settlement plan was given final approval by Israel last week. If things move ahead quickly, infrastructure development could start in the coming months and homes could start being built in about a year. And just could you lay out for me how this plan will literally physically divide the West Bank and the geographical significance into that? So it's a little hard to visualize if you don't have a map in front of you, but there is a patch of land between East Jerusalem and Malayadumim, which is in Israeli settlement just to the

east of Jerusalem in the occupied West Bank. This patch of land, which is known as E1, is what Israel is targeting to build settlements on. But it's also the most direct route between Ramallah, which is the administrative capital for the Palestinians and the West Bank, and Bethlehem and other cities in the southern part of the West Bank. So what happens is if Israel builds up E1, if they turn that into a settlement, which will then be connected to East Jerusalem on one side and to Malay Adomim on the other side, the Palestinians may no longer have that corridor to travel between the northern and southern parts of the West Bank. And then the only way to do that to get between the two halves of what is meant to be the heart of their future state,

is to take a very long detour to the east through the Jordan Valley, almost to the border with Jordan. It would add hours to travel time, and that's assuming that there aren't Israeli checkpoints along those routes, which very often these days for Palestinians they are. The Israeli cabinet minister and settler leader pushing the expansion, Bezalil Smotrich, is on the record saying it will bury the idea of a Palestinian state.

So many people living here. And many Palestinians fear he's right. Nobody care about us. Nobody asking about us. For decades now, whenever Israel has threatened to develop E1, to build settlements there, foreign governments, Western governments, have strongly urged it to back off from those plans

because they see construction of E1 as essentially the death knell of a Palestinian state. If you make it that difficult to get between the two halves of the West Bank, you make it almost impossible to have a contiguous, functional Palestinian state in the future. A Palestinian state is going to be recognized by a number of countries, including Canada. Canada recently declared that they will recognize a Palestinian state of the United Nations. General Assembly in September. But what does it matter for them to recognize a Palestinian state if it's made functionally impossible by physical settlements that are happening on the ground?

And even if that doesn't happen, even if construction doesn't start at E1, I'm not sure how much difference it makes. I think the question that I have had with these announcements about recognizing Palestine is then what? You know, great, you go to the United Nations, you say that, we are joining the 100-plus countries that already recognized Palestine. But that state doesn't exist. That state remains under Israeli occupation. And there's no prospect, I think, in the foreseeable future of Israel deciding on its own to end that occupation. So what do you do next? Canada, France, the UK, are they going to then take punitive steps towards Israel? Are they going to say, you know, we recognize a Palestinian state, you are preventing that state from emerging,

ergo we're going to apply sanctions or take some other measure against you. Are they going to do that? Or is this sort of a diplomatic box ticking exercise where you can say we recognize Palestine, we did our part for the Palestinians, and then essentially wash your hands of it? I suspect it's going to be closer to the latter than the former, in which case this recognition, I think, doesn't really have much real-world impact. Okay. And just lastly, you know, we talked about the impediments for a ceasefire right now and related to the international community.

We've seen many statements come out in regards to the onslaught on Gaza City. Do any of them have any more teeth than what we have been seeing over the last many, many months? Not really. I think I think you have this dynamic now. where, you know, for most countries in the world, you can put out these statements, but there's an expectation that there's not much that you can do, and therefore, there's not much that you need to do. Everyone is looking to Washington. Everyone is looking to Donald Trump to finally push Netanyahu to end this war. And Trump has had days over the past

seven months where it seems as if he's interested in doing that, but then comes out and says something different. And the way he's talking lately is about Israel should do whatever at once, Israel should crush Hamas, Israel should expand the war. He seems to be giving Israel carte blanche. Amas didn't really want to make a deal. I think they want to die. And it's very, very bad. And it got to be to a point where you're going to have to finish the job. If there's no pressure from the American government, I don't think Netanyahu is going to end the war. But because of that, I think many other countries have been able to almost abrogate their responsibility to try and do something. We've seen, as you say, many critical statements

from Western governments, certainly from Arab governments, but we haven't seen many of these countries take real punitive measures against Israel imposing, you know, if you think Israel is now causing a famine in Gaza, if you think its plans for pushing the entire population to the south are starting to look an awful lot like a plan for ethnic cleansing. If you think this is what the Israeli government is doing, it should be incumbent on you to take some steps to try and, if not prevent that from happening, at least show your displeasure by taking punitive measures. But everybody has largely, I think, washed their hands of that responsibility because they're waiting for Donald Trump to do something, and Trump is not showing many signs that he will.

Greg, thank you very much for this. Thank you. All right, that's all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you tomorrow.