Front Burner - Israel prepares to invade Gaza

Episode Date: October 16, 2023

As Israeli forces sit poised for a land invasion into Gaza in their campaign against Hamas, hundreds of thousands of Gazans are facing displacement or worse. Ishaan Tharoor, global affairs columnist with the Washington Post, brings us a recap of the latest developments, and where things could be headed next. For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Damon Fairless. Israel is ordering 1.1 million people to leave northern Gaza. That evacuation call includes emptying out hospitals holding thousands of sick and wounded.

On Friday, the Israeli military dropped thousands of leaflets over Gaza, ordering roughly half of its population to evacuate to the south of the territory within 24 hours or risk being killed. And over the weekend, hundreds of thousands of people in Gaza fled their homes. This comes after Israel declared a complete siege of the territory. There is no water, there is no food, there is nothing. The Israeli Air Force has continued airstrikes, and a ground assault looms. Every Hamas member is a dead man, said the Prime Minister. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to crush and destroy Hamas,

the militant group that governs Gaza, and which carried out the October 7th attack that killed more than 1,400 Israelis, most of them civilians. Over the weekend, the Canadian government confirmed that five Canadians in Israel were killed in that attack, and the three are still missing. The Gaza Health Ministry has said that more than 2,600 Palestinians have been killed since this round of fighting broke out. Things on the ground are changing rapidly, and so yesterday, on Sunday, we spoke with Ishan Tharoor, a global affairs columnist with the Washington Post, to get a sense of the latest developments. hey sean thanks so much for coming on front burner good to be with you all right so israel appears to be preparing for a ground invasion of gaza uh what are you able to tell me about that well it's been talked about for a few days now. We've been anticipating it, and it appears to be imminent. Nearer to Gaza, Israeli troops and armor are massing for an

expected ground invasion on an unprecedented scale. Massive attacks from above continue, and very soon from the ground too. Israel says it is already mounting raids on the enclave to look for hostages. What's going on right now is a pretty scary and fraught situation. Israel has been, of course, bombing this territory quite relentlessly for the last few days. It has ordered the evacuation of some around half of Gaza's population. So it's around a million people who live in the north of Gaza, telling them to move south for their own safety as they press in. Israel dropped thousands of leaflets in the north of the strip, warning civilians to go south. Quote, Gaza city has turned into a battlefield. Leave your homes immediately, read those flyers. The UN says this would involve the displacement

of more than a million people. The United Nations considers it impossible for such a movement to take place without devastating humanitarian consequences. We have various reports of Palestinian civilians being bombed as they flee, finding no real safety, even though Israel has framed what they're doing as an evacuation for their safety. NBC News can now report three convoys of what appear to be evacuees were just hit by Israeli strikes in Gaza. That's according to the Palestinian health ministry. That a convoy was reportedly attacked, killing around 70 people. In the meantime, Hamas is still launching rockets on Israel, and Hamas is still girding itself for this ground invasion.

Israel's stated goal is to destroy Hamas' infrastructure, destroy Hamas' ability to be a political and military actor in this territory. And that's a pretty ambitious goal, and so we'll see how it goes in the next few days. Do we have any sense of when boots may hit the ground, so to speak, for this ground incursion? My sense, and to be clear, I'm not totally sure. We have been waiting for this for quite some time. It seems to be getting closer and closer to happening. All right. I'd like to turn to Gaza and get a sense.

What are we hearing from inside Gaza right now? Well, it's a terrifying situation. Of course, people in Gaza, there's more than 2 million civilians living there, have been without reliable electricity, fuel, even water has been scarce in certain areas. Food is running out. They are buffeted in by a pretty extensive bombing campaign. And so you're seeing numerous reports of civilian casualties. At this point, by the measures we have from the Palestinian authorities there, the death toll in Gaza is already inching close to double of what Israel suffered the day of the horrifying Hamas terror attack. And we're almost certain that those numbers will rise. Gaza is a very densely populated area.

It's full of soft civilian targets that invariably get hit as collateral damage. The Israelis have said that they're going out of their way to save civilian lives. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant said the evacuation was necessary. We are asking all the civilians in Gaza City to go south of Gaza. And the reason is that because we don't want to have them.

But in this instance, given their justified desire to fully and thoroughly crush Hamas, we can be sure that civilians are going to be paying something of a price and will be, in the grim euphemism, collateral damage. There's also a lot of questions surrounding what happens to both the territory and the people living there. There are fears that hundreds of thousands of people in Gaza will not be able to return to their homes ever. There is some confusion about what the political status of Gaza could look like. Should Israel actually achieve some of these goals in terms of defeating Hamas? And so even as we look at a very harrowing and fast-moving situation on the ground,

there's some pretty terrifying big-picture questions as well that have huge implications not just for Israel and the Palestinians, but for the whole geopolitical architecture of the Middle East. Last week, Israel imposed what they're saying is a complete siege on Gaza. No food, no water, no electricity. The most recent we have on that is that with some U.S. pressure, Israel has said that it's turned water on. But do we know what the status of that is? So this is where I like to be a bit careful because it's changing a fair amount. Now, based on a lot of the reports we're getting, there are a lot of areas in Gaza where there's minimal to no water access, minimal to no electricity, minimal to no fuel that could be used to power local generators in various places, including in hospitals, which of course is deeply important given what's happening right now.

Hospitals themselves are running out of vital supplies and equipment and other things needed to save lives and function properly. Doctors say the entire health system here is close to breaking point. I think the whole medical sector and the health department maybe will collapse. I don't think that they can manage it. The hospital is full of patients. So in a humanitarian sense, it's already a full-blown crisis there. And we're also seeing that connectivity is getting worse. People are finding it unable to get on to internet,

finding it unable to be in touch with loved ones. So that is also intensifying the sense of crisis and panic. As the infrastructure, I mean, the infrastructure is already in a very serious state in Gaza, but one of the issues is the reliability of getting information out of there. How difficult is it to get information from Gaza, and how does that look in the coming days? It's tough. Of course, you have quite a few journalists, mostly Arab journalists based there, but their ability to report is seriously constrained. You've seen a number of Arab journalists or Palestinian journalists based in Gaza already die in airstrikes.

Some other institutions are trying to get their people out of Gaza because this feels right now like a scenario where everybody is vulnerable and news organizations are making certain decisions to save the lives of their staff, even if it means not being able to cover the story. Even the capacity to tell the story may grow quite difficult in the event of total power outages and cell phone connectivity outages as well. So it's a tough situation, and the fog of war appears to be getting thicker there. Israel called for a mass push, a mass, I guess, migration from northern Gaza into southern Gaza. That's a million plus people. Do we have a sense of how complete that evacuation has been so far? At this moment, it's pretty hard for me to tell.

There are numbers of hundreds of thousands, but I would not be able to give you a clear pinpoint figure. I think it's really important to recognize that where Israel is asking civilians in northern Gaza to go is hardly equipped to receive them. It's also subject to airstrikes. We're talking about an entire territory that is in a state of panic. And so it's not just that Israel is evacuating them. It's pushing hundreds of thousands of people into deeply uncertain, terrifying circumstances where we don't know if they'll be able to find sanctuary. We don't know if they'll be able to find food. And so this is a real kind of rolling humanitarian conundrum.

You mentioned hospitals, which one of the things I've been reading is that there are a lot of patients in hospitals who are unable to move, and of course people who are caring for them who aren't willing to move. Do we have a sense at all of people who aren't able to evacuate? I don't have hard numbers, but absolutely, you're right. There are quite a bit of anecdotal discussion of elderly not wanting to leave babies in incubators. There's some 50,000 pregnant women being treated or expected to give birth not long from now in Gaza. Their care is, of course, in serious doubt. International officials condemned Israel's deadline.

Moving those people is a death sentence. Asking health workers to do so is beyond cruel. So the ripples of all that's happening, it will have a huge, of course, it already has a huge public health price. As we're speaking, one of the big questions is aid, getting aid to the people in Gaza and also people potentially leaving Gaza. The only way out or potentially out is through the Rafah Gate on the southern border of Gaza.

What do we know about this, about the aid and the potential leave? Yes, and this is obviously a huge, huge question and a major, very urgent one as well. I think as we speak right now, Sunday afternoon on Eastern Time zone, it appears that there is some kind of deal in place that would open the Rafah gate, allowing some humanitarian supplies in and allowing people with foreign citizenship, foreign nationals based in Gaza to leave. But this is just a preliminary reporting that I'm seeing right now. And I cannot tell you much more than that. Maybe by the time folks listen to this, there'll be greater clarity. The reason why this is such a complicated situation, why these Egyptians aren't flinging the border wide open, well, there are a couple of reasons. One, of course,

is that Egypt itself may not feel that it's capable of accommodating up to 2 million Palestinians in such an exodus with the security threats that that may pose. And probably more importantly, and I think this is a sentiment felt across the Arab world and among Palestinians as well, is that if Egypt does encourage a mass exodus from Gaza, there is a fear that the Gazans leaving would never be able to return home. And this is a conflict where the right to return itself is such a loaded and emotional idea. There are hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees who still claim the right to return. And there is a real fear that if Egypt allows everyone to enter, that Israel would have successfully, in the minds of many,

carried out a campaign of de facto ethnic cleansing. In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization. Empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people, and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to,

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occupied Palestinian territory, the West Bank? Right. Well, the situation in the West Bank, which before this war flared, was much more the center of our attention than Hamas in Gaza, is clearly deteriorating. There have been clashes between Palestinians and security forces. There have been another surge in Jewish settler attacks on Palestinians there. It's tense, and it could certainly get worse. Of course, before this particular conflict over Gaza flared, the West Bank had been the site of a lot of the ideological grandstanding and policymaking of the current far-right government that is in power in Israel under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. who are very extreme, very allied to a particularly radical wing of the settler movement in the West Bank that sees what is viewed internationally as occupied Palestinian territory as a domain for further expansion, settlement, annexation even. And it has emboldened settler groups there to take things in their own hands, to carry out vigilante violence. And all this has happened in a context where Palestinians themselves feel increasingly

hopeless with the status quo that they live under, both with the nature of the military occupation in the West Bank, as well as the increasing sense that the institutions that exist to represent the Palestinians, namely the Palestinian Authority under aging leader Mahmoud Abbas is corrupt, useless, incapable of actually reckoning with Palestinian concerns and grievances, and in many people's views, a kind of accomplice to the dismal state of affairs that the Israelis have maintained over these Palestinian territories. It's been just over a week since Hamas militants went into Israel and attacked and killed 1,300 people at least. What's been happening in Israel in terms of further attacks, in terms of evacuations of Israeli communities? Give me a sense of what's happening in Israel.

go bloodiest day in Israeli history for Israelis since their nation's founding. It is a moment of profound tragedy, profound trauma, profound shock, and of course, profound anger because the country has really rallied around the need to expunge Hamas. But at the same time, it also has been interesting to see the kind of backlash that is waiting for Prime Minister Netanyahu. Many Israelis in polls that have taken place over the past week put the blame on him for the security failures that led to Hamas being able to do this. And so there is a very clear sense, people almost taking it for granted, that once the dust settles a few weeks, maybe a few months from now, when the kinetic action has died down, perhaps, that there will be a political reckoning for Netanyahu and that his time in office, not unlike, say, Prime Minister Golda Meir in 1973 during the

Yom Kippur War, that his political career, his political fate is sealed. I'm interested in what we know about the hostages that were taken during this attack by Hamas back into Gaza. Do we have a sense of numbers, who these people are? Do we have any sense of where they might be? So this is the thing. It's a very complicated situation in terms of what we can confirm to be sure. We know that somewhat over

60 hostages, at least maybe as many as 100, although there's been a lack of confirmation from authorities. American officials are not even sure about the total number of Americans who've been detained. They know that a certain number is missing, but they don't necessarily know if they're in Gaza as hostages. So it's a fascinating situation with some murky details. And at the same time, of course, while the United States and other governments are trying to work behind the scenes to figure out some way to free these hostages, even as Israel takes forward its actions, its military campaign, there is a sense that not all the hostages are in a place that can be reached,

that even certain Hamas authorities don't know the whereabouts of certain hostages. So it is a pretty grim situation. And given the conditions in Gaza, it's only going to get more grim and more fraught of the big concerns from the international community, obviously, has been the possibility for this to escalate regionally. So if other neighboring countries and militant groups get involved, how's that looking? What's the status with a possible escalation? Well, I mean, the main focus would be on Lebanon, which is Israel's north. And of course,

Lebanon is home to the very, very powerful and very well-equipped Hezbollah militant group. They tell us, do not intervene in the battle, says Hezbollah's deputy chief. We're fully ready. When the time comes for action, we will carry it out. Which has already engaged in a series of clashes with Israel. There's been exchanges of fire. There's been shelling both by the Israeli military into South Lebanon. The Israel-Lebanon border is on a hair trigger. With Hezbollah and Israel trading attacks over the so-called blue line, hair trigger. With Hezbollah and Israel trading attacks over the so-called blue line,

a Reuters news cameraman was killed and six other journalists injured inside southern Lebanon. So the war is already there. There are, of course, fears that it could get much worse, that there may be a major barrage from Hezbollah. There could be the need for Israeli ground troops to make incursions. That's a real fear. I think the United States is working quite actively to try to deter that and try to tamp that down as much as possible, even as the situation enters a phase we've never seen before, at least in recent memory in Gaza. But that is the major focus. Of course, there are anti-Israel, pro-Iranian proxies spread about various parts of the Middle East, in Syria, in Iraq. You could see an escalation in actions there as well. So yes, it's a very volatile situation. And then there's also a much broader fear of

kind of lone wolf attacks against Western or Israeli people in various parts of the Arab world as anger in the region grows over what's happening to the Palestinians of Gaza. You mentioned that the U.S. is doing what it can to try to de-escalate or tamp down some of the possible escalation there. So what kind of things has the state's been doing, other international powers, what's happening there? Well, of course, the U.S. has deployed a carrier group to the region as a sign of intent and a sign of force. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has done a kind of extended tour around the region's capitals. He was in Jordan, he was in Qatar, he was in

Egypt today, and will return to Israel on Monday. And so they are working very diligently and aggressively with various governments to try to get some kind of political consensus on the way forward and some agreement through various intermediaries who have some influence on these anti-Israel pro-Iranian proxies to perhaps restrain them. as usual with Hamas. Murdering babies, burning families to death, taking little children as hostages. These are unconscionable acts. Obviously, that's a difficult game to play. And obviously, this is something where the U.S. is clearly on one side and not viewed in the region as a kind of neutral arbiter here. It is viewed as a superpower backing Israel. So we'll see tactically what makes sense for some of these groups that are more aligned with Hamas. There may be a vision here where Israel can carry out its military campaign, do a lot of damage to Hamas, but then withdraw, and with the aid of a lot of Arab governments, find some kind of political or temporary political

truce here. But that, at this point, is quite far off. Is there anyone calling for an actual de-escalation or a ceasefire? I mean, many governments are calling for ceasefires around the region, but it's primarily Western governments that are not. And the U.S. State Department has even issued directives urging its diplomats to avoid any talk of ceasefire. So on one side, you are seeing a West that is fully giving license to Israel to seek retribution as it sees fit. And on the other side, you're seeing governments elsewhere really panicking and fearing for the fate of too many Palestinians. So the Red Cross took quite a rare step in putting out a statement about this,

and I'll quote parts of it. They say, nothing can justify the horrific attack Israel suffered last weekend. And then they go on to say that, as Israel defends itself, those attacks cannot in turn justify the limitless destruction of Gaza. The parties must not neglect their legal obligations regarding the method and means used to wage war. So that's a fairly rare quote for the International Red Cross to make. What's the international humanitarian community saying about the situation? Do you have a sense of that?

I think there is a fair amount amongst human rights groups, international groups, the UN Secretary General, I think there is a fair amount of consensus that one evil deed does not justify another evil deed, and that the suffering of civilians in any context doesn't justify the suffering of civilians in another context. Even wars have rules. civilians in another context. Even wars have rules. International humanitarian law and human rights law must be respected and upheld. Civilians must be protected and also never use the shields.

And all hostages in Gaza must be released immediately. It is imperative that all parties and those who have influence over them to do everything possible to achieve these steps. Unfortunately for the Palestinians who are now suffering, many in the West see them as human shields. Hamas, they see them as necessary collateral damage in this campaign of retribution against Hamas.

And I think there is a real fear that for years, as we have kind of tolerated the circumstances and the status quo that defines the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, we have also allowed ourselves to expect different standards for one population and the other. One population is more human in our eyes than the other. And I think you're seeing a lot of rights groups and Palestinians and their supporters really call out some of the double standards in our view of this conflict. That doesn't really change anything on the ground. It just illustrates the many levels of sadness and tragedy that surround what's happening right now.

So the impossible question, which I'm going to ask you anyways, of course, is where do you think this might all be heading in the next few days and weeks? achieve some kind of military solution that it finds satisfactory in terms of essentially decapitating Hamas's leadership or taking out a lot of its infrastructure, making its presence politically as the sovereign power in Gaza impossible. And then we'll see how the rest of the region works with that. I think if many Gazans are unable to go home, that's going to make things more complicated for Israel. If there's a sense that Israel needs to occupy Gaza, which is something it has not done since 2005, that may make things complicated with Israel as well. So there's a lot in play. There are a lot of ways in which this can go. We don't know how attritional and bloody the on-the-ground fighting could be, I would suggest that it's

probably going to be quite attritional and very bloody. So until there's some kind of glimmer of end to hostilities, we won't really know what the politics of this is going to be, but we can certainly be sure that the human toll is only going to grow far, far worse. All right, Ishan. Thank you so much. I really appreciate the conversation. Thanks for having me. Good to be with you. That's all for today. I'm Damon Fairless. Thanks for listening to FrontBurner. Talk to you tomorrow.