Front Burner - Israeli-Iranian shadow war breaks into the open

Episode Date: April 15, 2024

On Saturday night, Iran launched its first-ever direct attack into Israel, firing off some 300 drones and missiles. While Israel says it intercepted some 99 per cent of them, shrapnel from one drone hit a seven-year-old girl, who as of this writing is in critical condition. Iran’s attack follows a major escalation by Israel earlier this month, when a strike at Iran’s consulate in Syria killed 16 people, including a top commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.Today, the Guardian’s Julian Borger joins us to explain how these latest events have ratcheted up a long-simmering shadow war between the two powers — and the risk that they could bring the region into a much broader, and even more dangerous, conflict.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Jamie Poisson. On Saturday night, Iran launched its first ever direct attack into Israel. These are the sirens over Jerusalem and the explosions in the sky there over Israel. Some 300 drones and missiles fired towards Israel.

Israel says it intercepted some 99% of those drones and missiles, with help from allies including the U.S., the U.K., and Jordan. Shrapnel, from one of the few drones that did get through, hit a 7-year-old girl from a Bedouin town in southern Israel. As of the time of this recording, she was in hospital in critical condition. Iran's attack follows a major escalation from Israel on April 1st. Israeli strikes on Iran's consulate in Syria killed 16 people, including a top commander in Iran's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. — Videos from the Syrian capital show a building right next to the consulate completely destroyed. And you do see as well an Iranian flag.

So this could have serious implications, targeting a diplomatic mission which is supposed to be protected under international law. These latest events have ratcheted up a long-simmering shadow war between the two powers that now has them facing off directly with each other. And observers say that whatever happens next could either de-escalate or threaten to bring the region into a much broader and even more dangerous conflict. For more on this, I'm joined by Julian Borger. He's the Guardian's World Affairs Editor, and he's been following this closely.

Hi, Julian. It is always great to have you on. Thank you for making the time. Good to be here. So, Iran launched more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel on Saturday night. And as I noted in the intro, there is tragically a little girl who is currently in hospital in critical condition. But given the huge scale of the attack, why did it not cause more damage? Why did it not cause more damage? Because they managed to shoot the incoming missiles and drones out of the sky. The U.S. just there's just been a briefing by U.S. administration, military and defense officials, and they are pointing to what they call the spectacular success of Israel's Arrow anti-missile system

that knocked down almost all the incoming 100 ballistic missiles that were fired with a bit of help from U.S. warships out to sea. I mean, it's just an extraordinary example of military superiority that Israel demonstrated to the whole world last night. And I think Israel also demonstrated that it has friends, that it's not standing alone, that it's not isolated on the world stage. But they said this is mostly about the extraordinary efficiency of Israel's air defenses. Right. And I just, I want to timestamp this conversation because things are moving so fast. You and I are speaking at around 2.15 Eastern Standard Time. So Iran has been

vowing revenge on Israel for the past two weeks since this Israeli attack in Syria that destroyed its consulate and killed 16 people. In Iran's capital, there were calls for revenge and a settling of scores with Israel over the military leaders killed earlier this week in Damascus, Syria. We expect our government to put Israel in its place, said a protester. At the time, observers called this a major escalation by Israel. So tell me more about that attack and why it was such a big deal. It was a big deal because where they hit was a building belonging to the Iranian embassy in Syria.

So therefore, it was Iranian territory. And this was very much a line that Tehran was insistent on drawing, that this is our territory. You have crossed that line by striking our territory. Therefore, we have the right to strike back directly as you have struck us. Iran's foreign minister called the attack a violation of all international obligations and conventions. He went on to emphasize the need for a serious response by the international community to what he said were criminal actions. From the Iranian point of view, it was a matter of maintaining deterrence that any attack on Iranian territory, whether it be in Iran or in its embassies, would be met with a powerful response.

And, you know, of course, a lot of people are describing the attack on the consulate as like a game changer in what has been a longstanding conflict between Iran and Israel. And to understand why, I think we probably need to understand more about how Israel and Iran normally fight each other. So this is often called a shadow war. So without getting into a whole Middle Eastern history lesson, can you tell me a bit about the shadow war between these two countries? Yeah, absolutely. It's largely carried out through proxies. Iran has partners, proxies, allies around the region. It has a name for it, the Axis of Resistance. United, it says, in its opposition to Israel and the US.

Particularly in Lebanon with Hezbollah. Israel and Hezbollah are at war. Villages in southern Lebanon, within four kilometers of the border, have become closed military zones. But also with Shia militia in Iraq. Three U.S. soldiers were killed in a drone attack. The location was northeastern Jordan. The target was a U.S. military base called Tower 22.

The group claiming responsibility is the Islamic resistance in Iraq. And the Houthi forces in Yemen. Civilian shipping in the Red Sea has become more collateral damage to the war in Gaza. Yemen's Houthi militias captured the Galaxy leader and detained its crew in November, and the attacks have escalated since. in November, and the attacks have escalated since. They don't always do what Iran tells them to, but they closely coordinate. And on this occasion, the partners all took part to some minor extent to show their solidarity, and they were acting in concert with Iran. Israel, for its part, has frequently not just hit proxy forces, but has

hit members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC officers, senior officers, even over the past few months and over the years. But what was different about this, the killing of General Saeedi in Damascus and six other IRGC officers, was that it was on Iranian soil and Iran decided that it was going to make a point of this. Right. I'll just note that they also provide money and arms to Hamas, although there is no evidence, according to U.S. intelligence, that I wonder if you could elaborate for me a little bit more on why both countries had maintained this proxy strategy for so long. It's Iran's intention to make Israel unlivable

and also to drive the U.S. out of the region. So in order to do that, and in doing that, in seeking that aim, it sought to make itself a leader in the Islamic world and a leader even among Arab states in terms of opposing Israel. That was his aspiration. Israel, for its part, sees Iran as the most serious, even existential threat to Israel's existence. Iran's rulers promised to destroy my country, murder my people. You see, at stake is not merely the future of my country. At stake is the future of the world.

And nothing could imperil our common future more than the arming of Iran with nuclear weapons. And is very much focused on Iran as being behind many of its more immediate adversaries. You mentioned that since October 7th, Israel has gone after Revolutionary Guard members. Revolutionary Guard members. What else have we seen that have been escalations, you know, leading up to the attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria since October 7th? We've seen them go after Hezbollah in a big way. As a potential ground war looms in Gaza, there is concern now about a new front breaking out to the north of Israel and the Iran-backed group Hezbollah, which is far stronger than Hamas and could take this war

into even more dangerous territory. As a show of force... And it made the Iran-Americans extremely worried. In fact, in the immediate aftermath of the 7th of October attack by Hamas, there was a push within the Israeli cabinet, the Israeli war cabinet in particular, the security cabinet, to go preemptively after Hezbollah, because there was this fear that Hezbollah would use the opportunity of the attack in Gaza and the conflict in Gaza to launch its own offensive against Israel in a pincer movement.

And Hezbollah is much, much more of a significant force, much better armed than Hamas, with repeatedly over 100,000 missiles and rockets at its disposal. So there was this idea that they would go after Hezbollah preemptively and had to be talked out of it by the US in the hours and days after the 7th of October attack. I'm going to go. Entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people, and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household income? That's not a typo.

50%. That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. charged environment that the Israelis strike the Iranian consulate earlier this month? And I just, Julian, why would they take that unprecedented step of attacking the consulate, the Iranian consulate in Syria? That is a very good question. And it's a question that the U.S. officials were asking, and because they were notified of it very late in the day, they weren't consulted over it, and they were pretty angry about it because it was, it Israel Defense Forces, are very gung-ho at the moment. They feel they have carte blanche to go after Israel's enemies and didn't themselves spot the significance of this building where General Saidi and these other IRGC leaders were. So that is one possibility.

There is another possibility that the leadership, in particular Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, knew exactly what he was doing and that he saw taking the war to Iran as a way of involving the US. And there is a report, and it was overnight on NBC, quoting US officials as saying that privately, this is what Joe Biden has said, that he is anxious that that is Israel's plan

and Netanyahu's plan to draw in US into a conflict with Iran that would solve some of Israel's problems, namely the fear about Iran's nuclear facilities, for example. And I just wonder if you could flesh that out a little bit more for me, because I have seen it described that what Iran did on Saturday could actually be perceived as helpful to Israel right now. Yeah, on several levels. One was the possibility, of course, that it draws the U.S. into the conflict

as much more of a close partner to Israel. But the other benefit to Netanyahu is it distracts attention from what has been going on in Gaza. The narrative on the world stage over the last few months has been increasing horror and outrage at what's been happening in Gaza in terms of the humanitarian situation there, starvation, impending famine. This has obviously changed that narrative. On the world stage now, Israel is once again a victim

and is going to the UN Security Council this afternoon to call for condemnation of their attack on Israel. So that has really changed the subject in a way that is helpful in definition. And take me through Iran's calculations here. What do we know about why they responded the way that they did? What are they thinking? What calculations could they be making right now? Well, I think Iran, just like Israel,

just like the US, thinks in terms of deterrence and this idea of restoring deterrence. And clearly, the leadership felt that an attack on Iranian territory, albeit embassy territory in another country, had to draw a response. Otherwise, Iran's enemies would see it as a sign of weakness, a sign that Iran could be attacked with impunity. And so I think it was about, in a way, saving face, but in strategic terms and the way they saw it in terms of

restoring deterrence and showing that Iran is a major power in the region and not one to be trifled with. Right. A number of analysts have said that the attack by Iran seemed planned to minimize casualties while maximizing spectacle. What do you make of that argument? Certainly U.S. officials that have been talking just in the last couple of hours are very much pushing back against that. Well, do you believe that Iran intended these strikes to be successful and lethal or just look like they could be? Oh, no question. I mean, look at the size and the scale, the scope of what they fired at Israel from Iran proper. More than 300 missiles and drones. They wanted to cause

damage, no question about that. But they were utterly unsuccessful. They're pointing out that the attack involved 100 ballistic missiles, which take minutes to reach targets. And they say that the intention was to cause quite considerable destruction and casualties and that you can't launch 100 ballistic missiles at a country as small as Israel and think that the casualty rate will be limited. So the US at least is pushing back on this idea that it was in any way a performative strike. It was unprecedented and did, as I point out, include this 100 ballistic missiles where there is a flight time of just a few minutes. And they said that the only reason why there weren't significantly more casualties was because these missiles were shut down. I want to talk with you about what could potentially happen next year. And what is

the United States trying to do right now, you think? The United States right now, the Biden administration right now is seeking to influence the Israeli war cabinet and persuade them not to launch a counteroffensive. Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke to President Biden, who reportedly urged him from the White House to accept that Israel had won, who reportedly urged him from the White House to accept that Israel had won, adding that the US would not participate in a counter-attack. You have shown your military superiority. The fact that you have friends, not just in the region,

but around the world who are going to come to your defence, that is a win. It's a big win. Take the win. And don't strike back because then you start losing strategically. That's a message that's gone over to the Israelis. The initial feedback from at least two members of the war cabinet, and there are only three, Yoav Galant, the defense minister, and Benny Gantz, who's the third member of that war cabinet minister with that portfolio, have both suggested they're looking at ways, sort of long-term responses,

building a strategic alliance on the back of the response, of the regional and global response to Iran's attack. War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz warned that Israel would, quote, exact the price from Iran in a fashion and timing that is right for us. That's the kind of language that has reassured officials here in Washington that an imminent response is not on the way. But they can't be entirely sure because Netanyahu has yet to weigh in he is under pressure from hawks and right-wingers in his coalition talking about that coalition I did see a member of his Likud party on BBC Sunday morning and he did say quote this is something

that will have a major response. You cannot have an attack like this left untreated. This is one of Netanyahu's close allies. What do you make of that? Do you think it's just noise? No, I think that was very much the initial response. The initial responses were very hot. But the U.S. at least is hoping that in the cool light of day,

The U.S. at least is hoping that in the cool light of day, once it's clear that the casualties are limited and the damage to the Israeli base that was hit was very minimal, that in that cool light of day, the cooler heads will prevail and that they will take a breath. Secondly, the U.S. has made it clear, and Biden made it clear in his call with Netanyahu, that if they did carry out a counteroffensive, the U.S. would not take part. And that makes carrying out any kind of aerial attack on Iran without the power, the might of the U.S. behind you very difficult, very risky. Julian, before we go today, if this does not de-escalate, I wonder if you could paint a picture for me of the stakes here. So, you know, a lot of people talking about the potential for a wider regional conflict, as we've been talking about. Just tell me what that could look like. It could be a very serious regional conflict.

It could be a very serious regional conflict. And there was a moment overnight when Iran had launched 100 ballistic missiles, and they were up in the air, all up in the air, pretty much at the same time. They were going to land in minutes, and it wasn't clear how well these Israeli systems and missile defense systems would work. well these Israeli systems and missile defense systems would work. If those missiles had come down, caused widespread casualties and damage, then I don't think it would be possible for the U.S. to restrain Israel. There wouldn't be any question that Israel would have struck back, leading to counter blows from Iran, which Iran's made clear that they would hit back with greater force if there was a response, not just from Iran, but also Iran's partners that we've talked about, Hezbollah,

the Houthis, militias in Iraq. It's not hard to imagine if that happened that the whole region would just go up in flames with a major regional conflict. Okay. And of course, the most terrifying part of that is the possibility of Iran and the United States in direct conflict with each other. Absolutely true. It's really hard to imagine if that conflict went on that the U.S. would not be drawn in because the U.S. has forces all over the region. If those forces were hit, then it would be very difficult for Joe Biden not to hit back, especially as in the middle of an election year. So you can just imagine how that escalatory

spiral would turn. All right. Julian, thank you, as always. Thank you. Pleasure. All right, that's all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening, and we'll talk to you tomorrow.