Front Burner - It’s official: A federal election is upon us

Episode Date: August 16, 2021

A federal election has been called for Sept. 20, less than two years after the last one. Today, Aaron Wherry of CBC's Parliament Hill bureau on why now.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Elamin Abdelmahmoud, in for Jamie Poisson. Well, after much rumor and speculation, it is official. Canadians are going to the polls on September 20th. On Sunday morning, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau visited Governor-General Mary Simon

and asked her to dissolve Parliament, launching a federal election, the second in less than two years, leaving some wondering, why now? Today, Aaron Wary from CBC's Parliamentary Bureau is here to talk us through it. Aaron, here we go again. It is happening. And I feel like we just went through an election. And part of the reason I feel that way is because everybody knows that time froze during 2020. It's not a year that happened in terms of the progress of time. And so it just feels like the election was basically just yesterday. So why did the Liberal leader, Justin Trudeau,

what did he say about why we need another one right now? Right. So his logic, his explanation actually kind of is based a lot on the fact that we've been through a lot in the last 17 to 18 months. You know, he knew or had to have known that the first question he was going to get asked was why you're going for an election. You know, you don't necessarily need to go for an election right now. In theory, you could continue governing for another two to three years if you really wanted to. And his sort of move was to kind of turn the question back in on itself. So instead of saying, you know, why are we having an election? It was sort of why aren't, of turn the question back in on itself. So instead of saying, you know,

why are we having an election? It was sort of why aren't, why wouldn't we have an election right now? Why shouldn't we give Canadians a choice over where they want to go coming out of this pandemic, how they want to move forward out of COVID and, you know, what they want to do with this moment. The decisions your government makes right now will define the future your kids and grandkids grow up in. So in this pivotal, consequential moment, who wouldn't want to say, who wouldn't want their chance to help decide where our country goes from here? He made a lot of effort to sort of cast this as a historic moment, as a moment for really talking about the future and talking about coming out of this pandemic and

really trying to build the case that for all of the questions that have been asked over the last few weeks about whether there should be an election or why there's going to be an election or how he would justify an election, that this is a perfectly good time be an election or why there's going to be an election or how he would justify an election, that this is a perfectly good time for an election. So to the other parties, please explain why you don't think Canadians should have the choice, why you don't think that this is a pivotal moment, because I'm focused on our real plan.

Right. And, you know, the idea of why shouldn't Canadians get to decide, that's the official explanation. What do people think really is going on here? You sound so cynical, Elamin. Look, I think it's very fair to say that if the Liberals were not leading in the polls right now, Justin Trudeau wouldn't have gone to Rideau Hall and asked for an election. In our system where election dates aren't necessarily fixed, and a minority parliament can fall or even a majority government can fall, election timing is almost always political. So we have Trudeau possibly feeling good about his

odds because of what the polls have been telling us for the last few weeks. I'm interested to hear what the other leaders think about this. So let's start with Conservative leader Aaron O'Toole. What did he say about this election call? I mean, his opening comments were basically to say, look, this is risky and reckless. You know, COVID is still out there. The country is still recovering. We're finally at a point, thanks to the efforts of all Canadians who've stayed at home, got tested, got vaccinated,

where we can see our loved ones, our friends, and our families again. We shouldn't be risking that for political games or political gain. That said, he's also not fond of the Liberal government and the way it's been governing. And he is more than happy to explain why the Conservatives should be governing instead of the Liberals. I am a new Conservative leader with a proven track record and a fresh approach. It's Canada's recovery plan to get our economy firing on all cylinders and to get our public finances under control. You know, the opposition leaders are stuck in a kind of odd position where they have to kind of complain that an election has been called,

but also say that actually, well, now that we're having an election, now that you mention it, maybe we should vote these guys out. Obviously, the conservatives have been sort of talking about the idea of not wanting an election right now for some time. But on Friday, this past Friday, they put out an attack ad. And for those who have not seen it, it's a scene from Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory. And it has Trudeau's face sort of like hastily, shoddily pasted onto Veruca Salt's face. And she's in the middle of throwing a tantrum.

I want a party with roomfuls of laughter. 10,000 tons of ice cream. You caught this, yeah? Yes. It was hard to miss. It was very attention-grabbing, I would say. Yeah. The tagline that came at the end was, the only reason for an election is because Trudeau wants a majority.

And I think it's striking that already several conservative candidates have spoken out against it. One called it embarrassing. Another called it dumb. A third candidate called it tasteless and appalling. These are conservatives criticizing their own party strategy here. What do you make of that? Yeah, all things considered, it's probably not the best way to launch a campaign. But the larger issue I think here is that, you know, the Conservative Party, Aaron O'Toole's Conservative Party has been linked to an advertising firm, a social media firm that has been kind of known for throwing lots of content out through social media channels and attracting attention. And you can definitely make the argument that any attention is good attention, right?

Like as much as people were complaining about this ad, it was being shared and viewed and passed around. And so that's a net win for the conservatives. I think the problem with that idea is when the story then becomes, conservatives say ad is bad and embarrassing. If the story had just been conservatives release controversial ad, I think the conservatives are probably happy with that. When the story becomes conservative MPs and former Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall say

ad is bad and embarrassing and not befitting a party that wants to govern, I think that is where it flips. And so it'll be, I think it'll be interesting to see how much that is a harbinger of what is to come. Like what kind of content is going to be pushed out through social media and how much of the campaign is going to be waged in this tone of throwing out videos like that, that are sort of meant to attract attention, even if it's bad attention. I mean, I have to say that one of the things I was surprised by with that ad is that it sort of signaled to me, I don't know, shall we say bleep posting, like a sort of approach to talking about politics and making politics that is a little bit about trolling, a little bit about sort of borrowing the visual language of online trolling to make political ads and to see it come out of an official party channel was a surprise to me. Was that a surprise to you? was a surprise to me. Was that a surprise to you?

Look, this is hardly the first social media campaign. It's hardly the first campaign to be impacted by Twitter. But I think you've seen parties move through different phases of trying to figure out how best to use these channels and what they can be used for in terms of rallying the base or getting your message out. So I think to that extent, it's interesting to see a party sort of unapologetically put an ad out like this. They haven't pulled it down, at least last time I checked. They don't seem bothered by the criticism they're taking for it. And that unapologeticness, I think, is interesting. That said, I'm an old-timer now.

I can remember covering the 2008 campaign when the Conservative Party put up a website with Stéphane Dion in which a puffin flew past him and pooped on his shoulder. And the pooping puffin controversy dominated, I feel like, way too many hours of that campaign. It was probably like two days. And so like, you know, bad taste is not new in democracy. But putting up a video that, you know, people find embarrassing or sort of beneath politics and not apologizing for it, I think that is an interesting switch. And as you say, trolling, like that, that feels like a new thing thing that in the past parties may have stopped short

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I want to go back to the idea of calling this election now because NDP leader Jagmeet Singh also expressed his opposition to that. A couple of weeks ago, he went as far as to say that Governor General Mary Simon should turn down Trudeau's request for a snap election. What is he saying now, now that the election is in fact happening? Right. So let's, just for the sake of civics, let's clarify that there was really no scenario in which Mary Simon was going to say no to this election. This is just not the sort of circumstances where the Governor General would say no to that request. And you are nothing if not a deep service person for the service of civics, so yes.

I try to educate. So his position, his argument has sort of changed now in that he's basically saying, look, the liberals could have kept on governing. We would have helped them pass things. But why does he want a majority? It's certainly not because he wants to help more people or help people more. It's only because he wants to help people less and people end up paying

the price. The reality is he is fed up with new Democrats pushing him to deliver more help to more people. And he certainly doesn't want to put in place any measures to make the ultra rich pay their fair share. And to that extent, you know, the NDP argument is that the fact that they're there has improved things over the last year and a half and has led to better outcomes. And so, therefore, you should elect more new Democrats so they can have an even greater influence. To a certain extent, he has a stronger hand to play when complaining about the election than Aaron O'Toole,

because in Aaron O'Toole's case, Aaron O'Toole, the Conservatives have opposed this government numerous times in the House of Commons. They're clearly not interested in how the Liberal Party is governing. They oppose it. They think it's a disaster and they want to replace them. The NDP, while not agreeing with everything the Liberals have done, while having all sorts of criticisms of Justin Trudeau, have at least tried to be a helpful partner or play the part of a helpful partner at times to come out of things that they can point to as victories. And so he's got a bit of a stronger hand to play

in terms of complaining about the election timing, but it's the same problem of sort of, how far can you possibly take that argument before you have to move on and just start dealing with the election as it is? You know, how, how much do voters really care that the election is happening right now? And how much, how much is that, is the election timing going to factor into the ultimate decision people have of who to vote for? I mean, let's get, let's get into that a little bit, because I do think that we in the media think about this question, and then

maybe move on from it. Like it usually takes maybe the first three to four days of a campaign is like, should we be having this election or no, but the election period is about 36 days, there will be other things to talk about. And we got to talk about why this particular case might be different, right? Because we do have a fourth wave of COVID-19 approaching. We've heard Jagmeet Singh call this a selfish summer election. O'Toole stressing that it's a reckless thing to call this election during the pandemic. Do you think this criticism could last beyond the traditional week that we talk about it because of the pandemic? the traditional week that we talk about it because of the pandemic? Yeah, it could, especially if there's lots of COVID outbreaks related with this campaign, if the fourth wave gets really bad, if politicians, if the Liberal campaign or the Prime Minister or Liberal MPs or Liberal candidates

are seen to be behaving irresponsibly on the campaign trail, that will all that will just bring attention back to the fact that we're in a campaign. And it was the liberals who precipitated it, that's going to just force the liberals to explain again why they're having this election and justify it. So there is, I would say there's more risk this time than in in previous minority situations. But I think the flip side of that is if you're an opposition party, you can't really bank on should there be an election or not

being the ballot question. Because in history, it just doesn't... There are exceptions and we'll probably... There is one particular exception and we'll probably talk about it in a bit. But for the most part, you're right. We spend the first few days or week fussing over whether or not

there should be an election. And then we all sort of come to terms with the fact that there is an election and we get on with it. Right. Speaking of COVID, of course, it's already rearing its head as an election issue. As Trudeau kicked off his campaign, he brought up vaccine mandates, this idea of mandating vaccines for air and train travel and for public servants. Not everyone agrees. Not every political party agrees. Well, Canadians should be able to weigh in on that and on so much more. What did you make of the decision of Fertrudeau to bring that up?

I mean, I think it is going to be a significant issue in this campaign. You know, the Liberals made the sort of their big move on vaccine mandates in terms of the public service, in terms of air travel, in terms of train travel, just on Friday. So it's a live issue. And I'm sure the timing of that was not coincidental. They may have gotten to this issue eventually, but it doesn't hurt that it comes right before an election campaign and they can now make it a campaign issue. Because the reason they can make it a campaign issue is that it doesn't quite seem like all the other parties are quite ready to get on board with this idea. The Conservatives in particular seem very hesitant about endorsing any kind of idea about vaccine restrictions.

We have to try and encourage and have as many people as vaccinated as possible and then take reasonable precautions to use other tools to keep all Canadians safe. As I said, using rapid testing, using screening, using masking. Now, presumably that's because Aaron O'Toole knows that somewhere in his base, in his party, there are people who are more skeptical or more hesitant about vaccines, or more hesitant or skeptical about sort of government-mandated

behaviour like this. And so this puts the Conservatives in a tough spot, which obviously the liberals are more than happy to do. And it's a reminder that, you know, we can we go into elections with all sorts of ideas about what they're going to be about and what the major issues are. And then sometimes something comes along that throws everything off and becomes sort of the ballot question. So even if you go back to 2015 when the Liberals won power, I don't think any of us thought that campaign

was going to be about the niqab and Syrian refugees. And then some things happened, and that became sort of one of the dominant issues, two of the dominant issues going into the latter half of that campaign. And so things like this can get thrown on the table, either purposefully or accidentally, and suddenly that becomes the big wedge in the campaign. Aaron, I want to talk about the confidence that the liberals may be feeling, because you don't call this election if you're not feeling pretty confident about yourself.

Could that call backfire on them? Yes, every election call is a gamble, but it's a gamble both ways. So let's start with the gamble of going. As we said, or as we just said, most of the time, the exact reason for the election campaign, whether or not it came early, that stuff gets wiped away in a few days, and we all move on. But everyone at this point knows the example of former Ontario Premier David Peterson, who had a commanding majority in the legislature in Ontario in 1990, called an election a year ahead of time and promptly got thrown out of office. Just a few months ago, David Peterson was being described as Captain Canada.

The polls said he was one of the most popular leaders in the entire country. The polls betrayed him tonight. David Peterson's liberals going down to an enormous defeat at the hands of the NDP. betrayed him tonight. David Peterson's Liberals going down to an enormous defeat at the hands of the NDP. And that has become the sort of lesson of be careful about going into an early election, particularly be careful of going into an early summer election, I guess because Canadians really value their summers for some reason. The flip side of that is, and it doesn't get talked about as much, is an example like Pierre Trudeau in 1977. So in 1977, he is in year three of a majority government. He has no danger of being defeated in the House, but his polling numbers are up, things are looking good for him, and his advisors come to him and say, you should really go for an election. thinks about it and then decides, you know, no, I'm going to wait. They do that again in 78,

when again, it looks like things are looking up for him. And he takes a pass again. And then in 1979, at that point, he's been around for more than four years in that, since the previous election. And he's got to call an election. But the economy's gone down, his polling has gone down, his government seems tired. And he goes out and loses the next election. Good evening, I'm Knowlton Nash, and this is a one-hour news special on Election 79, Joe Clark's Election 79. Last night's celebration was loud, joyful, and a personal triumph for the man who went from Joe Who to prime minister-elect. And so that's sort of the way to look at, from a political standpoint at least, the decision Justin Trudeau had to make here, which is he could force an election right now. And maybe it's a risk. Maybe it blows up in his face.

Maybe people get mad about it. But if he waits, what are the odds that the situation is going to be any better for him between now and, say, October 23rd, when we would usually expect the next election to be? Are the odds that his polling is going to be better, that the situation in the country with COVID is going to be better, that there will present itself another opportunity to go to an election? And if they look at the situation and say, look, this is a good opportunity to go for us, and we can't be sure what the next two years are going to look like, then you can understand the straight political calculation of saying, why don't we go now when it looks like we're in a pretty decent position?

Well, all right. Should be an interesting five weeks or so. And of course, the FrontBurner team will be covering it all closely. Aaron Wary, thank you so much for your time, man. Thank you much. Before we go today, an update on what's unfolding in Afghanistan. On Sunday, the Taliban advance into the country's capital, Kabul. On Sunday, the Taliban advance into the country's capital, Kabul. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has fled, along with thousands of fellow citizens and foreigners.

Canada shut down its embassy in Kabul, and personnel were being evacuated from the U.S. embassy. Within a week, the Taliban has taken much of Afghanistan. That's despite the billions of dollars spent by Western nations, including Canada, to build up Afghan security forces over the last 20 years. We'll have more on tomorrow's episode of FrontBurner. Stay tuned for that. I'm El-Amin Abdelmahmoud, in for Jamie Poisson. Thanks for listening. Talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.