Front Burner - Jagmeet Singh is fighting for his political life

Episode Date: January 4, 2019

"This is his biggest political test to date. It will decide the fate of Jagmeet Singh." With a federal election looming, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is under intense pressure to win a seat in the House of Commons in the upcoming Burnaby South byelection. Today on Front Burner, CBC National News reporter Hannah Thibedeau breaks down how things are looking for Singh and explains what's at stake for the future of the entire New Democratic Party.

Hey there, I'm David Common. If you're like me, there are things you love about living in the GTA and things that drive you absolutely crazy. Every day on This Is Toronto, we connect you to what matters most about life in the GTA, the news you gotta know, and the conversations your friends will be talking about. Whether you listen on a run through your neighbourhood or while sitting in the parking lot that is the 401, check out This Is Toronto, wherever you get your podcasts. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Jamie Poisson. You know who didn't have a great 2018?

Jagmeet Singh. I mean, he did get married, and that was probably really nice. But politically, his year was not so great. Because to be fair, it's hard to have a good year when you lead the federal New Democrats and you're not even allowed to take part in question period because you don't have a seat in the House of Commons. And it would also be hard to have a good year while the other party leaders are out there gearing up to campaign to be prime minister. And you're just trying to get elected as an MP. Meantime, your party is really struggling. Very soon, at least three

by-elections will be held across Canada. Jagmeet Singh is running in one of them, in Burnaby South, a B.C. riding. Burnaby can't afford to wait any longer. Let's get out and let's do this. Let's bring that change we know is possible. It's not exaggerating to say that this race will define his political career, and that it's a crucial one for the NDP as we head into a federal election. Today I'm talking to Hannah Thibodeau, who's been covering this story for us. This is his biggest political test to date. It will decide the fate of Jagmeet Singh. That's coming up on FrontBurner.

Hi, Hannah. Hi. Thanks so much for joining us today. Oh, you know, I love to talk politics. I am so looking forward to this conversation. I have to apologize. I have a bit of a cold. So I'm sorry to you and to our listeners if I sound a little bit funny or more funny than usual.

No, you sound great. So we're here to talk about Jagmeet Singh today and the NDP. And Jagmeet Singh is the leader of the NDP, but he doesn't have a seat in the House of Commons right now. Not an ideal situation for him. It is vital't have a seat in the House of Commons right now. Not an ideal situation for him. No, it is vital to have a seat in the House of Commons. And there's lots of reasons for this. Leaders get important exposure. They can demonstrate how they're going to go toe-to-toe with the prime minister.

They can criticize the prime minister's policies. That's important. But also, it's about building a presence on the political scene. Canadians can get an opportunity to see Jagmeet Singh in the House of Commons. They can gauge his performance. And right now, he's being sidelined by not having this seat. But not only that, here's an interesting tidbit as well, Jamie. When you are an MP, you get a salary and it's about $176,000. He is not getting a salary right now because he doesn't have a seat. So how is he getting paid? Well, that's a good

question because he's also forgone any compensation from the party at this time until the party's finances improve. So that's something to watch for. And in fact, I asked, is he in fact getting a salary as of yet? And I didn't get an answer from that. So we'll have to watch for. And in fact, I asked, is he in fact getting a salary as of yet? And I didn't get an answer from that. So we'll have to talk about finances too. Interesting. One question I have is whether this is unusual. Is it unusual for the leader of a federal party to be seatless for such a long time? Yeah, it's 15 months because he became leader in October 2017. So for more than a year? Yeah, for more than a year. It is unusual, but not too unusual for the NDP. And listen to these numbers. I got them from our poll analyst, Eric Grenier.

He's just a smarty. Such a smart guy. You got to pick people's brains who know. And he says that for Tommy Douglas, he was without a seat for 14 months when he was the leader of the NDP. Instead of the doctor sending the bill to you, he will send the bill to the medical care plan. Jack Layton went 17 months and Alexa McDonough 20 months. So right now, Singh is at 15 months and they were seatless until the next general election. So if Singh were to wait until the next general election,

which happens in October of this year, it would mean he would be without a seat for 25 months. Now that would be unusual. Can we talk a little bit about why he's choosing to run in this riding, BC's Burnaby South? I'm committed to Burnaby South. I'm all in on Burnaby. My wife and I talked about it and we're going to run here. So if you win, you'll move here, and you're committed to here for the next however many years?

Absolutely. You know, I know Jagmeet Singh as a provincial MPP. He was a provincial MPP for Brampton for many years, 2011 to 2017, before he became the leader of the party. And deputy leader to Andrea Horvath, the leader of the NDP in Ontario. Absolutely. So why British Columbia? Yeah, thousands of the party. And deputy leader to Andrea Horvath, the leader of the NDP in Ontario. Absolutely. So why British Columbia? Yeah, thousands of kilometers away. Okay, so there's that. He had the Ontario portfolio here in Brampton. He lived in St.

John's. He lived in Toronto. He lived in Windsor. So all natural choices, but that didn't happen. And in fact, he chose that riding thousands of kilometers away. And this after sitting out earlier by-elections as well. However, he's not the only leader to be helicoptered into a riding because a lot of people are saying, oh, he's not from here. He doesn't represent what we are. That's interesting because take a listen to this list. In 1983, Brian Mulroney ran in Central Nova. There are three issues. The first is jobs. The second is jobs. And the third is jobs.

Those are the issues of the campaign. Brian Mulroney was from Quebec and he was the leader of the Conservative Party. Jean Chrétien, the little guy from Chewinnigan, when he won the leadership in 1990, he didn't have a seat and he ran in a by-election in Beauséjour, New Brunswick. So completely different province there. Stockwell Day, when he was leader of the Canadian Alliance, he was a member of the Alberta legislature. But in 2000, he ran in Okanagan, Coquihalla. So what's the strategy behind that?

I think what is the strategy here for Jagmeet Singh, there are reasons that make sense. It was an NDP riding. It was previously held by Kennedy Stewart. He went off to become the mayor of Vancouver. So they chose that riding because it was sort of an NDP-dominated riding. However, they only won that in 2015 by 500 votes. So that's what makes this riding a bit precarious for him. And also, one of the key issues there is the Trans Mountain Pipeline, which we know Kennedy Stewart was vehemently opposed to. Mr. Speaker, the Kinder Morgan Pipeline is a bad deal for British Columbia. It's being rammed through our beautiful province.

As is Jagmeet Singh. Climate change leaders don't spend $4.5 billion on pipelines. So that's one of the things as well. So there are issues in that riding for him. And also he and his wife just got an apartment there. So they are trying to build that profile for Jagmeet Singh on the ground. So let's talk about who he's up against. Right. So last Saturday, the Liberals nominated Karen Wang.

She's an owner of a daycare in the area, and she previously ran for the provincial Liberals in 2017. She didn't win, but she has lived there for 20 years. I went to school in Burnaby South and I raised my family in Burnaby South and I set up my business in Burnaby South. She's not an extremely high profile candidate for the Liberals, but there was this decision that the Liberals had to make. Were they going to run someone against Jagmeet Singh or were they going to follow through with this leaders agreement? Where at times parties don't, in fact, run someone against an opposition leader. And why would they do that? Why would they choose to not run someone against an opposition leader? Well, there is that gentleman's agreement.

And in fact, gentleman or leader's agreement, because Elizabeth May, of course, has decided not to run someone against Mr. Singh. And the reason for that is she feels that he needs that position in the House of Commons. Canadians have a right to know and be more acquainted with the leaders of all the position in the House of Commons. Canadians have a right to know and be more acquainted with the leaders of all the parties in the House. It's just a polite thing she feels to do to allow him to have that opportunity. But the other parties have decided they're going to run someone against him. The Liberal strategy, if you look at it, is that a lot of BC Liberals are saying you have to put someone up. We need to have this challenge. And even if we don't win in this by-election,

we need to be able to show that we're fighting hard in this riding. They want to be able to take it, even maybe later. I would like to see a liberal who is elected in every riding in this country. I think in democracy we should have a candidate there. But on the other hand, I think the liberals are probably thinking about, do we really want to beat Mr. Singh? The reason for that, and you're probably sitting there scratching your head. Absolutely.

Yeah. Do they want to win it? I would say probably not. If they beat Jagmeet Singh, and Singh is no longer the leader, then that could cause problems if they get a stronger person in there leading the NDP. Because what's happening right now is with such a poor performance from Mr. Singh, it's helping the liberals in the polls. So they might want to keep that going. What about the conservatives? Do they have a candidate running here?

They do. They are running Jay Shin. He's a corporate lawyer who grew up in Burnaby. So he's known in the community. And he's a pretty good candidate. And so far in the polls, we've seen that the Conservatives are actually running second. But those polls have been not high numbers of people who have responded to it. not high numbers of people who have responded to it.

And when it comes to Maxime Bernier, the People's Party of Canada, they are expected to run a candidate as well. And that candidate should be nominated in the next couple of weeks is what we're hearing. We'll have a candidate. If we can, if we can. Interesting. I want to get a sense from you. You've been to Burnaby South. And what are you seeing and hearing on the ground there?

Okay, it wasn't good for Jagmeet Singh at all. This was back in September. I went out to cover the NDP caucus. It was held in BC. So I thought, I'm going to head over to the riding of Burnaby South. And it was right next door to the library where Tommy Douglas has a library there, the founding father of the NDP and healthcare in this country. And I stopped quite a few people on the corner. I thought, let's just do a little straw poll. I had a photograph on my phone of Jagmeet Singh, and I asked everybody who came by,

do you know who this is? Any feeling you might have an idea? Not one person knew. Wow. How many people would you? I'd say I stopped about 20, about 20 people. So, you know, it is a small sample, but you really got the feeling that people weren't paying attention. However, they weren't paying attention because the by-election hadn't been called, but he is the leader of the third party in the House of Commons. For anybody that follows politics, they should know at least, hey, this is some type of politician. And a couple of people did kind of say he's a politician, and they guessed around a little bit. But no, they didn't know who he was.

Again, that may have changed since Singh and his wife have rented an apartment and he and his team have been out canvassing quite a bit in the riding. Very nice to meet you. My name is Jagmeet Singh and I'm the leader of the NDP. OK. And I'll be running in the upcoming by-election. OK. What are your issues or any things that you're concerned with? But here's some other bad news on the ground there. The race is extremely tight. And even before the Liberals named who they were going to run in this by-election, Jagmeet Singh sat third

in a couple of polls out there behind the Liberals, behind the Conservatives. That is terrible news for him. So he's got to hope he's coming into 2019 with better polling numbers, better financing numbers, and better communication skills. And he even admitted his communication wasn't good at the caucus that when we were on the ground there. Another thing, fundraising. Fundraising in the riding has been an issue. And we know this because at one point, the Riding Association put out an email to its supporters saying, we need $4,000 within a couple of days or we're shutting down the headquarters. The actual headquarters could have been shut down. Wow.

That's what they said. And it was in an email. So it was like, wow, things are not looking good. However, they did say that they did raise the money that they needed and the headquarters is still open there. Thankfully for him. if Jagmeet Singh loses this by-election. But first, I want to zoom out a little bit because this isn't the only by-election that's going to be taking place in February. There's also York Simcoe in Ontario

and Outremont in Quebec, which was the former NDP leader Thomas Mulcair's riding. And what could the Outremont race also signal for the future of the NDP? This is a big one to watch and they have to be scared about this. Like you say, Outremont was Tom Mulcair's riding since 2007, the former leader of the NDP.

Now, despite the NDP's past success there, this seat may be lost, and this one is really important. So when Tom Mulcair won in 2007, it gave the NDP that credibility. My dear friends, tonight voters in Outremont opted for change. And I think it was a big part of the push for that orange wave in 2011. It was kind of the pinnacle, I would say, for the orange wave. And that's when they became the official opposition

in the House of Commons. Where the Conservatives didn't triumph, the NDP did, and no more so than in Quebec. The party got 43% of the vote in the province. But it's going to be a tough fight for both Singh and his team to maintain this seat. And they have to be really afraid about this because polls are suggesting that all the party seats in Quebec could be at risk in the next election campaign.

Remember, that's where the orange wave started for them in 2011. Singh has visited Outremont quite a few times. And what happens there could really give us a sense of how vulnerable the NDP are in Quebec. So we've got these two by-elections in February that could really be markers for what we're going to see for this party for this upcoming election year. Jagmeet Singh, as we've talked about, has been leader for well over a year now.

I remember when he was elected, there was this optimism around him. What was the promise of Jagmeet Singh in the beginning? Absolutely. And you could see the charisma with him. And you still see that if you're on the ground with him. You speak Tagalog? Yeah, I do speak Tagalog. How are you? Good.

But it's not translating right now to the rest of the country, to voters. Why do you think that is? Because he admits that he hasn't been communicating very well. He's had over a year under his belt as a leader. And his pitch has been that the liberals are failing progressive voters and choose him. But it just hasn't translated to voters. He's also had problems with caucus unity. And they have been wondering, what the heck is going on here? Why are we losing so much support in the polls? Why are we in a distant third place when we used

to be official opposition? And Quebec isn't the only region that he has problems either or hurdles. He's also alienated some of his provincial counterparts in Alberta for being a staunch fighter against the Trans Mountain Pipeline. Let's talk about that for a second. So Rachel Notley is the premier of Alberta and she's a leader of the provincial NDP party there. She wants this pipeline built. The NDP has come out against it. Yes, he has come out strongly against it. And I think for a while there, he tried to play both sides. And he had to make a choice.

And the choice was to fight against the Trans Mountain Pipeline and also fight against the billions of dollars that the Liberals have invested, tax dollars invested in the pipeline. that the Liberals have invested, tax dollars invested in the pipeline. So that could actually benefit him, is to have that strong stance against something that the Liberals really stand for. But coming back to the problems that he has, he also has a big problem with fundraising. We have seen fundraising numbers where they're in deficit in 2017, $3.1 million. That's bad news. Parties need about $40 million to run a campaign. However, here's some good news for them. They did get, well, he's been in place for a while. They have a new person in charge of their finances. They're trying to fix that. And also there's a new chief of staff. So hopefully, you know, for Jagmeet Singh,

a new chief of staff. So hopefully, you know, for Jagmeet Singh, his bad rookie year is gone. I think he probably wanted 2018 to let that door close. He's had eight NDP MPs who have announced that they are not running again or they are leaving or intend to do so. And not having that senior statesman type of people in your party and bringing in new people under such tough circumstances is going to make it difficult for them. They could be wiped out in Quebec. Could be. Things can change. I mean, look at what happened with Tom Mulcair in 2015. He was looking like he was going to win that election when we went into that campaign in 2015.

And then it flipped around. And I think that's what they're thinking in their heads, too, that things can change. If our friends south of the border have taught us anything is that we have no idea what's going to happen in politics. Right. And Justin Trudeau, his liberal party was in third place. Right. Even here. Yeah. So got to remember those things when you're in this political world. Clearly, there's a lot riding on this race in Burnaby for Jagmeet Singh. Can we talk about what happens if he loses? This is his biggest political test to date. It will decide the fate of Jagmeet Singh. The last time a by-election took down a party leader was Conservative leader Arthur Megan in 1942. So many say that Singh would not survive this loss because think of all of the questions

that are going to be thrown at him if he loses this by-election. There would be questions about his leadership, his ability. It would all come back to the fundraising, the polling numbers. It would constantly be that. So many feel that he would either have to step aside or the party would have to say, sorry, sir, we're moving on. And it's looking for when in February? When do we think that this is going to happen? Okay, it could be as early, the call could be as early as this Sunday, which would mean that there would be a by-election on February 11th. What my sources are telling me, though, is that it's not likely going to be this weekend. However, I do know that Mr. Singh will be in Burnaby South

ready for this if it does happen this Sunday. It's more likely to happen the following Sunday, and that means that the by-election would be on February 18th. So it's looking like the by-election will be February 11th or February 18th. Great, and I hope when that happens you can come back and we can pick up where we left off here. Absolutely. Love being here. Thanks, Jamie. Thank you so much. It's such a pleasure. That's all for today.

FrontBurner comes to you from CBC News and CBC Podcasts. The show is produced by Chris Berube, Elaine Chao, Shannon Higgins, with help from Sylvia Thompson. Derek Vanderwyk does our sound design. Our music is by Joseph Chabison of Boombox Sound. The executive producer of FrontBurner is Nick McKay-Blocos. And I'm your host, Jamie Poisson. Have a great weekend. Thanks for listening. See you Monday. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts. It's 2011 and the Arab Spring is raging.

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