Front Burner - Jason Kenney’s political future on the line

Episode Date: April 11, 2022

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney addressed United Conservative Party members at a special general meeting on Saturday and made his pitch to stay on as party leader. UCP members can begin voting via mail-in ballot on the future of Kenney’s leadership this week, with results expected May 18. But the lead-up to this vote has been rife with party infighting. Today, Maclean's Alberta correspondent Jason Markusoff explains what’s preceded this leadership review, the discontent within the UCP and why Kenney may have reason to be concerned regardless of the outcome next month.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Jamie Poisson. Maybe you've seen this video I'm about to describe. I wish that it had sound. It's of Alberta Premier Jason Kenney earlier this month.

He's holding a press conference at a gas station. His podium had a sign reading, Relief at the Pumps. His podium had a sign reading, relief at the pumps. But after smiling for the camera with one hand giving a thumbs up, he struggles with the other hand to remove the nozzle from the truck, like quite a bit. So he tries with both hands. No luck. It goes on for more than 10 very awkward seconds. This video, it's been viewed more than a million times, which whatever, right? It's just a photo op, gaffes happen. But I doubt Premier Kenney was feeling too good

about the timing of this one because this coming week, members of the United Conservative Party will start mailing in their ballots, voting on whether to keep him on as leader or throw him out entirely. Today, I'm joined by McLean's Alberta correspondent, Jason Markasoff. We're talking about the Kenney leadership review, the discontent in the UCP, and why

Kenney has reason to be concerned no matter what the outcome next month. Hey, Jason, always so great to have you on the podcast. Amy, it's good to be here. And your description of Jason Kenney's gas thing shows that you're a true bonafide podcast pro. Well done. Can you take us back and remind us why this is happening this month? Like, how did this leadership vote come to be? It predates the little gas pump affair. It goes back quite a ways. Jason Kenney is not only not terribly popular with the Alberta public, he's not terribly popular with his party.

It's been a really tough pandemic for Jason Kenney. He leads a party whose grassroots, many of them in rural Alberta, don't like mask mandates, don't like vaccine mandates, don't like worrying about COVID much at all. We will not facilitate or accept vaccine passports and that in fact we regard,

I believe that they would in principle contravene the Health Information Act and also possibly the Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act. And Premier Kenney has often catered to those voices saying we believe in freedom, we believe in personal responsibility up until the point at which our hospitals have nearly busted in waves two, three and four and he has had to reluctantly bring in mandates. Government has reluctantly decided to adopt the restriction exemption program. No one will be compelled to get vaccinated. That has made UCP members very upset. It's fractured the party. It's fractured caucus.

I was speaking to our members about the challenges that we as a government have been through. I took responsibility for mistakes that have been made in terms of COVID management. And I spoke very clearly to the primary issue that has created some division in my party. And that is public health restrictions. There's no secret that that has been a point of division in the government caucus and within the party. We've had, for more than a year now, members of his own UCP caucus criticizing him

and now openly saying, we don't want you as leader. We want you out. We want somebody new. Do you have confidence in the premier right now? And should he still be in the job? I will pass it on to MLA Pitt on answering that question. And MLA Stephan, if they'd like. The answer to that question is no, I don't. And I don't think that my constituents do either.

However, I think that every party has a leadership review, you are supposed to periodically review, hold a vote to see whether your members still want you as leader. Normally, they're pro forma, between 80 and 95% of your members say yes, let's go forward with this leader in the election. And it's fine. Jason Kenney could well lose his leadership review coming up. Okay. So let's talk about the lead up to the leadership review. Tell me about that. Yeah. So the party had set this leadership review for April 9th. It was a bit of a compromise date itself because they were supposed to hold it in the fall, but that's very close to next spring's elections. They moved it back. The party was expecting maybe 2,800 members to register for this special vote, special general meeting, and come to Red Deer, pay $100 of

administration fee and vote. They got 15,000 members voting for this. So there were two problems. One is a logistical problem. There was no way you could fit 15,000 people into that hotel convention hall. And the other problem was a political problem for Jason Kenney, who leads this party and who has a decent amount of say in how this thing gets administered, be it directly or indirectly. This was far more people than they were expecting, former people than he had had a hand in signing up himself or his teammates had a hand in signing up, which meant that there were a bunch of people who were probably really ticked off at Jason Kenney, raring to come

to Red Deer by the thousand. And that was likely people coming en masse to embarrass him, to vote him out. So they thought, let's switch to plan C. And plan C is what's ongoing right now. It is a mail-in ballot. So instead of having all these people come to Red Deer and balloon the population of that city in central Alberta, they're going to mail ballots out to not only these registrants, but all party members. So we're talking about 55,000 people or so who are UCP members in Alberta. And they have to get their ballots in by May 11th. And we're going to know the results in May 18th. So Jason Kenney has at least six weeks longer than he might have had he been voted out on April 9th. Is Kenny seen as being fairly instrumental in making that

switch happen from the in-person vote to the mail-in voting? Yes. You know, I have been told by sources that he had a direct input into this. It's not ideal for the leader to have a direct input into this, but he is the leader of this party. So he will not only have a say and have influence among members, but the executive, the board, are people who are generally loyal to him. There is not a huge amount of dissidents on the board. In fact, they've expelled at least one dissident who was vocally publicly critical of Jason Kenney. So this is a group of people administering this vote that are, you know, they're saying they're trying to be fair to the membership and give everybody their voice, put this on

the fair and level. But, you know, let's be real and political here. These are people who are Kenyites who are setting these rules. And that means that a lot of dissidents, a lot of people who are grumpy and don't like him and want him out are very suspicious of this change. And certainly as a member of the legislature, I promoted the party and this particular event to all of my grassroots Conservative members whether or not they supported the Premier or not and for the good of the province, for the good of the party, he should consider the

gracious thing to do would be to step down and to support a new leader. If I could add, one other way that these new rules benefit Jason Kenney greatly is the way they've moved from 15,000 people who had registered for this special vote, who were going to schlep to Red Deer from all corners of the province to vote, to the whole membership. So now it becomes not only the people who are, you know, raring to go and paying $100 and driving up to Red Deer for this, it's every person who holds a membership. He's more than tripled the potential voter pool. So it's not just the grumps who are keen to go to Red Deer for him.

It's anybody sitting at home who's supported their local candidate, voted in a past race uh donated money to a you know a local barbecue in airdrie alberta so it's a lot more people that he can uh get votes from uh you know well overwhelming the 15 000 uh who were ready to go and likely uh dump him right right because you're probably not going to schlep all the way to red deer stay in a hotel whatever just because you're cool with the status quo. That's right. Let's talk about some of the grumps, as you say, in his own party. I know that Peter Guthrie, a UCP MLA, had some scathing things to say to reporters outside the legislature about Kenny essentially being a phony. Our premier has performed one of the greatest acting jobs in the course of Canadian history. He drove around in a blue truck going town to town, acting like the everyman with his blue jeans on and his top button undone.

And then once he got elected, the Ottawa elite came out. He also suggested on social media that the rules were changed to salvage a win for Kenny. And talk to me a little bit more about the backlash from Kenny's opponents within the UCP here. They don't trust him. That's one of the big reasons they want to get rid of him. They find him a schemer. They find him self-serving. They find him defying what the grassroots want. But I think that the integrity and the trust in the current system, the current process has been lost, completely destroyed with membership. And the grassroots, those people who are becoming increasingly vocal over the past year or so, they expect that he is going to try to skew the rules and rig the rules in the way that best suits him, that gives him the best fighting chance at winning this. And they have reason to be skeptical.

In 2017, when Jason Kenney first became leader of the newly formed United Conservative Party, this merger of the Wild Rose Party and the newly formed United Conservative Party, this merger of the Wild Rose Party and the old Progressive Conservative Party, there were two things that were profoundly controversial. One was the evidence that Jason Kenney had a hand in boosting another candidate, this one Jeff Calloway, who was a candidate, whose sole existence on the ballot and sole existence in the campaign was to just kneecap Jason Kenney's main rival, Brian Jean. I do have to say, I'm standing there, and perhaps this was a little bit preordained. A few people have noticed that Jason and I actually drive the same truck.

It's a blue Dodge Ram. And I'm looking at our posters here, and I think that's the same truck. It's a blue Dodge Ram. And I'm looking at our posters here, and I think that's the same image. It's a coincidence, but I guess this is... There's been reporting from CBC's Carolyn Dunn. A cache of documents leaked to the CBC shows senior Kenney campaign staffers routinely contacted Callaway staffers. They offered strategic directives, speeches and opposition research for

Callaway to attack Brian Jean. Certainly Jason Kenney was grateful for Jeff Callaway's sacrifice. When he left the race, Kenney presented him with a bottle of Alberta Dark Horse whiskey. The political metaphor wasn't lost on anyone. And the other scandal from the 2017 leadership race is actually something the RCMP has been looking into for at least three years now. It is voter ID fraud allegations that they're looking into. That last race wasn't a mail-in ballot, it was a digital vote. And there are several people within the United Conservative Party who have alleged that Jason Kenney had set up these special computer systems to basically just take people's IDs and take their voter registration numbers and use those to vote to help run up his numbers against his rival, Brian Jean. If there's anybody who didn't vote authentically,

then that concerns me, obviously. But I, as a candidate, ensured that our team complied with the rules. That's what our campaign management did. That investigation is still ongoing. In fact, it came out a few weeks ago that Kenny himself was interviewed by the RSMP just a few months ago. I know Kenny has denied any personal knowledge of the Kamikaze campaign,

and he says his campaign did everything it could to carefully follow the rules. But beyond sort of griping about this move to mail-in ballots. Are his opponents concerned about anything else specific this time around? One thing to keep in mind about Jason Kenney's opponents is that a lot of them have been very skeptical about authorities, institutions, about vaccines, about public health dictates. So they are just widely suspicious and sometimes conspiratorial about what can go wrong and how somebody can rig things in their favor. And again, they deeply dislike and distrust Jason Kenney. This is extended to distrust of the party leadership and party executive that is behind him. And there are suspicions that they could harvest ballots, take large amounts of people's mail-in ballots and just fill them in themselves or bring

them to the central office. There is suspicion about what this list is, who all is on this list, whether they all know that they signed up for memberships or somebody was buying the memberships on their behalf with some promises, signing up people in bulk without their awareness. There are wide ranging and sometimes hard to define suspicions. Talking about those suspicions, I remember in early March, City News reported on a recording they obtained of a town hall where an MLAN advisor to Brian Jean, his main rival, as you said, were talking about the potential for interference. The advisor seems to make this comparison between Kenney and Stalin, saying Joseph Stalin once said, I don't give a damn who votes. I care who counts the votes. And Kenney's responded to that. Well, look, I'm happy

to be held accountable as a leader and people are free to come out and vote according to their judgment at our leadership review. But comparing me to a genocidal dictator, I think demonstrates the nature of some of that opposition. I just want to note here that he says these claims of interference of fraud are totally baseless. On Friday, Brian Jean said that some of his concerns about the leadership vote had been resolved and the UCP board had shown him evidence that gave him confidence in the legitimacy of the

vast majority of the membership list. So has this skepticism passed somewhat now? You know, I think the party is very aware and Jason Kenney himself is very aware that the suspicion is so great that if there are any silly games played, anything that seems tricky or suspicious, that it's going to really harm the party and harm the legitimacy of the results. I think that there is a contingent of UCP voters out there who are going to distrust any result that shows a Jason Kenney victory. So I don't think they're going to dispel all of that. They are trying to make this process transparent. They've gone a ways to calm the concerns of Brian Jean, who's an interesting person in this. He, despite the fact that he is vocally opposed to Kenny

and says he wants him out as leader and is campaigning for him to be out as leader, he just became a UCP MLA once again, winning in a by-election up in Fort McMurray in Northeast Alberta. So now he is a member of Jason Kenny's caucus who openly wants him to go. And if there is a public figure who is, you know,

maybe seen as a ringleader of this very diffuse organization of people who want Kenny out, it's Brian Jean. To have him saying that he's a bit calmer will help. But like I said, there's a lot of conspiratorial and distrustful people out there. So I think there's that group that no matter what happens, they won't trust a result unless he loses. In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization.

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together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. There was this special general meeting on Saturday where Kenny addressed the party, made his pitch essentially to stay on as leader. And what did he say? He gave an old quote that he attributed to Stephen stephen harper but interestingly uh as far as i know actually it comes back from uh the 1972 pierre trudeau campaign and jason is no fan of pierre trudeau uh it's don't compare me to the almighty compare me to the alternative like which is a good politician god compare me to my rival exactly which is a good way of a politician saying, I'm not perfect. I'm just going to be better than the next guy. Jason Kenney is out of great arguments. That's the problem he

faces. He knows that he has to acknowledge a lot of hard feelings and frustrations out there for challenges in the economy that we've had in Alberta for his management of the COVID restrictions back and forth and back again. He's had a lot to explain for, but he's what he's basically saying is that, well, you know, nobody's perfect. And the other pitch he's making, and this is something that we're hearing increasingly, is that he's the one who can keep this party together. There were people holding signs. There were still some friendlies, many friendlies in the crowd, and they were all holding these signs saying unity,

keep the United Conservative Party united. He's this guy who merged these two parties, brought them together, has struggled to keep them together right now. And his concern is that whoever comes after me will have a much tougher time keeping the moderates and the hardliners, the grassroots and the establishment types, the urban and the rural people in this party together. And he's probably right, Jason Kenney, that it is a tough party to

keep together. The challenge is that he's not keeping it together. There are people in both urban and rural settings, from both the moderates and the more doctrinaire conservatives, who are really ticked off at him. There are not a lot of people delighted with him in the middle. So let's say he does come out of this. I know he's got a pretty low bar in terms of what he'll consider a win. What is the vote percentage or the threshold of support that you are aiming for and would need to be able to confidently continue to be the leader of the UCP? Is it a simple majority vote?

Is it 70, 75%? In a democracy, majority is 50% plus one. But do you see a path for him to continue to lead this party or to be able to unite this party, which is bitterly divided right now? So to his argument at this point, as long as he gets 50%, he stays on. But in real political terms, if barely half of your party supports you, let alone all those people who aren't in your party and don't like you and want to vote somebody else, say Rachel Notley and the NDP, who've been ahead of the polls for quite a while now, that's not a way to keep this party together. That's not a way to go forward. If that many people in your party, that larger chunk, nearly half of your party wants you out. Normally, politicians take cue that that's their time to leave. In 2006, when the old governing progressive

conservatives in Alberta gave Ralph Klein a vote of about 55%, He took that as a cute leave right away. That was way lower than he wanted. Usually in party politics, anything below 75, 70% is a big trouble. But Jason Kenney is saying, you know, we have an election next year. We need consistency. I'm going to stay on as leader

if I get 50% or more. We'll see. Okay. Jason, thank you so much for this. I have a feeling we're probably going to be talking to you again on or around May 18th, if not before then. So thank you, as always. Always a pleasure to talk to you.

All right. That is all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening. We'll talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.