Front Burner - Lawrence Wright predicts a pandemic in “The End of October”

Episode Date: April 28, 2020

When Lawrence Wright started writing a novel about a deadly influenza virus, he delved deep into researching the 1918 Spanish Flu, and more recent epidemics like SARS and MERS. Little did he know that by the time he’d release the book, we’d be living through a new and viscous influenza pandemic. Today on Front Burner, he shares his unique insight on COVID-19 given the knowledge he gained writing “The End of October”.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Jamie Poisson. The story in a new book called The End of October, it starts like this. 47 people die of acute hemorrhagic fever in an internment camp in Indonesia. The disease takes the world by storm.

Dubbed the Congoli flu, it paralyzes health organizations and governments. And reading this new novel right now, well, it is an incredibly surreal experience given the COVID-19 pandemic. Lawrence Wright is the Pulitzer Prize winning journalist behind The End of October. He's written unflinching nonfiction about Al-Qaeda and Scientology, and in this book, he brings the same level of detail and in-depth research that he does to his journalism. Today, Lawrence Wright on the parallels between his new work of fiction and the facts of COVID-19. This is Frontburner. of COVID-19. This is Fromber. Hi, Lawrence. Thank you so much for making the time to speak with me today. We're so appreciative.

Oh, it's a pleasure, Jamie. Thank you for having me. I have to say it's a wild experience reading your novel in this current climate. Well, it's a wild experience for me too, honestly. You know, I pick up the newspaper and I feel like I'm reading another chapter in my book, unfortunately. I bet. And I hope that we can talk about that today. But first, you know, at the heart of this novel is the Congolese flu. It's really your central character. And can you tell us more about what it is, where it came from? Well, I modeled this flu on the 1918 Spanish flu. You know, when I was out researching and talking to the experts, I asked them what would happen if a new virus like the Spanish flu came back into our society in a time when we travel so intensely

and our cities are so densely populated. And I decided I would make my flu something like, it's not a coronavirus, it is an influenza virus. But in many respects, they have a lot of similarities. My virus is probably more mortal but less contagious than is the COVID-19. I guess in my imagination, I was stirred by the SARS and MERS, which are also coronaviruses, are far more fatal than COVID-19. viruses are far more fatal than COVID-19. And so I was thinking about those viruses as well when I was concocting my own. I understand one of the reasons you wanted to write this book as well was, you know, an attempt to explore the question of how human civilization can fall apart. And so what made you want to explore that through an influenza pandemic? Well, I wanted to add a stress to society. And, you know, there are many different ways of doing that, depressions and wars and so on. But I was intrigued by the idea that a disease could undermine civilization and cause other things to happen.

And in the novel, I just take trends that I see in society already, the antagonism between a lot of nations, for instance, and draw them out. Once you start the blame game, which we see happening intensely now and probably will happen even more intensely soon. Those are very dangerous provocations, and I entertain them in the novel to see where they lead. Can you tell me a little bit more about that blame game that you're seeing now and how you think it could get worse? Well, diseases always come with stigma and blame.

And, you know, like in the Renaissance, the French people called venereal disease the Neapolitan disease, and the Italians called it the French disease. But, you know, even Spanish influenza, for instance, is a way of labeling a disease. Spain had nothing to do with the origin of the 1918 flu, but it got blamed for creating it and you see that happening right now with the americans calling it uh the wuhan or the chinese flu why do you keep using this because it comes from china it's not racist at all no not at all it comes from china that's why it comes from china i want to be accurate. Yeah, please, John. And the Chinese, the Russians, the Iranians are all saying it was something that was cooked up in an American bioweapons lab. Beijing has also pushed the narrative that the virus was brought to China by the U.S. military.

Nearly 250 members of the U.S. military were in Wuhan in October last year to take part in the World Military Games. China's new position appears to contradict its own assessment from January. Right. I know one of the themes or storylines in your book is the idea that conspiracy theories can often come out of crises like this. And we're seeing tons of them, that 5G networks are spreading this disease around the world. that 5G networks are spreading this disease around the world. In this video that's been shared thousands of times around the world Thomas Cowan, an American holistic doctor claims a virus isn't behind the pandemic. Anybody want to make one guess as to where the first completely blanketed 5G city in the world was? Exactly.

That's not true. And 5G is a long way from being up and running around the world was. Exactly. That's not true. And 5G is a long way from being up and running around the world. I want to know a little bit more about what it feels like to be living so many themes that you just spent the last few years writing about. So, you know, this idea of bio warfare and conspiracy theories, but also in your book, you know, you talk about long lineups at grocery stores. There is a very tense and eerie scene where the White House is being briefed on the seriousness of the situation. And they're being told that there isn't a vaccine yet. There are not enough ventilators. What has it been like for you watching this pandemic as someone so steeped in this for the last, I would imagine,

several years? It feels like there's so much research in this book. When I started writing the novel, I created a calendar on my computer. And actually, I set the year 2020, not for any particular reason. I don't give dates in the book, but in my imagination, it happened this year. You know, 1918 started, the flu started in the spring. So this one started a little earlier. It started in, actually, I think the first case, the very first case was in November in China, and it wasn't announced until New Year's Eve. But it didn't really get hold, take a good hold until January and February.

On January 21st, when Washington State reports the first coronavirus case in the United States, within a week, the CDC confirms Illinois, California, and Arizona also have cases. So it was a little ahead of the Spanish flu and also of my flu. But in many respects, they march along pretty much on the same timeline. And so I, you know, I'm curious about whether that will continue. I mean, I don't I'm a little sick of the coincidences,

because it turns out really badly in my novel. And I hope it doesn't go that direction. It does, I will say, turn out, the ending feels quite bleak. I know that you spoke with epidemiologists, immunologists, microbiologists, you know, security experts, vaccine experts, public health officials for this book. And, you know, speaking with all of these experts, how have those conversations informed your own understanding of what's happening? Is there anything that really sticks out to you as you watch this pandemic develop today? Yes, because, you know, almost everybody I spoke to, all the experts, I, you know, would ask them, you know, what would happen if, you know, almost everybody I spoke to, all the experts, I, you know, would ask them, you know, what would happen if, you know, one of these pandemics came along like 1918.

They all had been spending their entire career asking themselves the same question. And they all knew that it was going to happen. They just didn't know when. Right. What are all these experts telling you about their thoughts on government response here? Are they feeling like the preparedness is worse than what they thought it was going to be? How are they reacting? One thing that is a common note is the dismay at the stumble, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which has always been a jewel in the government bureaucracy. It was one of the most distinguished agencies in our government. And to see it stumble so badly and really place the nation's health at peril because of their failures. Governor Andrew Cuomo is set to deliver another update on the ongoing coronavirus outbreak.

The CDC, I believe, was slow to begin with. They were not ready for this. They should have been ready for this. CDC, wake up, let the states test, let private labs test. Wake up, let the states test, let private labs test. This has been very dismaying. And I think it's track, you can track it back. You know, lack of leadership, no doubt, has something to do with it. But, you know, it's been handicapped by budget cuts. And it's not just the Centers for Disease Control. You know, inside the White House at the National Security Council, there was a pandemic response team, which was one of the very first things that the Trump administration eliminated when it came into office.

The officials that were working in that office left this administration abruptly. And the officials that worked in that office said that you that the White House lost valuable time because that office wasn't disbanded. What do you make of that? Well, I just think it's a nasty question. And when you say me, I didn't do it. That's the team that would have been leading the response to this pandemic, but they're not there. So, yeah, it's very dismaying for people who work in public health to see the way in which the administration has stumbled. And of course, it's not just America.

Many countries are facing real difficulties in coping with this virus. But this is a time when you see what kind of society you're actually living in. I also want to talk to you about the global response. So Henry Parsons, your main character in the book, he's working sort of at the behest of the World Health Organization. And what access did you get to the WHO when you were writing this book? I didn't actually go to the WHO. I talked to people who work with it. But, and interestingly, the Center for Disease Control, when I was a young reporter, I did a number of stories out of the CDC. I lived in Atlanta, but I couldn't get them to return my calls. I was totally shocked. And I think it was an early

indication of the disorganization, the disarray inside the CDC that they couldn't handle a reporter's ordinary approaches. You know, even though you weren't allowed to get access to the WHO, I know in the book, Henry is often frustrated by its bureaucracy, right? About sort of competing agencies, how slow to move it is. And is that something that you're hearing now as well? The WHO is, first of all, it's a handicapped entity because it has no authority. And so, and it's also chronically underfunded. There are, you know, a lot of problems with the WHO, but it's the only global entity that has any standing to try to coordinate a global response. So I'm dismayed by the fact that we are cutting off funding from the WHO. As the organization's leading sponsor,

the United States has a duty to insist on full accountability. I talked to senior administration officials about this, and they say that freeze is a 60- to 90-day freeze. So they're trying to get leverage in order to reform the World Health Organization. It's just a terrible response in the middle of a ravaging pandemic such as we're facing right now. What do you make, though, of the criticism that the WHO was influenced by China too much, that they downplayed this pandemic?

On January 14th, China is still telling the WHO they have not seen human to human transmission. That day, the WHO echoes China's message. The WHO was influenced by China. But on the other hand, it's in this, the WHO is in the position of being a supplicant, not an authority. Michael Ryan, he's the executive director of the WHO's emergency program. The international health regulations is a framework negotiated by 194 countries. We simply implement that framework on behalf of our member states. It has to get the permission of different nations in order to even go there,

like China wouldn't let anybody in for the first three weeks. You know, it was clearly trying to keep a lid on this. But the WHO can't just ignore that. They have to get the permission of Chinese authorities even to go into the country. You know, Jamie, I think this is a bad system, but it's the only one we have. And the idea being here that, you know, trying to deal with this or trying to address this bad system in the middle of a pandemic, a lot of people are questioning how much more damage that can do, right? Yeah, I mean, what we depend upon in a

situation like this, where, you know, this virus knows no boundaries, what we need is, you know, sharing of information, a common source of data, and some kind of oversight. That's what the WHO is supposed to provide. Does it do it inadequately? Well, yes, probably so. But does anybody else do it? No. So, you know, that's the situation we face. In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization. Empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. You know, we talked before about the end of your novel and how it's quite bleak. I don't want to give it away for people listening. But I wonder what lessons you think people could take away from this novel about how we might be able to come out the other side of this and perhaps avoid some of the bleakest possible outcomes here.

Well, you know, I've been looking back in history, trying to guess, you know, how will we change because of this? Because we are at a kind of civilizational reset. You know, there have been others in my lifetime. You know, 9-11 was such a period, and the Arab Spring for that region of the world. And in the case of 9-11, I remember so strongly the sense that, oh, my gosh, we're going to have to stand for something now. We're going to have to be the country that we have always said we are.

Today our nation saw evil, the very worst of human nature, and we responded with the best of America. But instead we invaded Iraq. We are a peaceful people, yet we're not a fragile people, and we will not be intimidated by thugs and killers. And in the case of the Arab Spring, we had, there's a region of the world that's so desperate for democracy and so needful of it. The crowds on Tahrir Square are showing no intention of giving up their protest. Tomorrow in our millions, they shout revolution on the streets. The next date with

history, Egypt after Friday prayers. And yet in most countries, it's just become even more tyrannical. Egypt's post-revolution euphoria didn't last long. Its first democratically elected leader lasted just 12 months. The Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi was overthrown in a military coup led by Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. So, you know, I think we have an, but, you know, look back at the Black Death, which brought an end to the Middle Ages and opened the door to the Renaissance. A wind of change blew through civilization, and it was reborn. Now, I'm not saying that COVID-19 is the Black Death, but it is a major event in history. And how we change is the question, not whether.

And what we need to remember is that the change is in our hands. And what we need to remember is that the change is in our hands. We have the ability to make the kinds of changes that this disease has shown us that we need to make. Whether we actually choose to do that is another question. And what kind of changes would you like to see? Well, for one thing, I think we do need to have some sort of national health system in the United States. One of the reasons we have such high mortality figures and so many infections is I just think that we have people who are uninsured and afraid to go to the hospital. I think also we need to respect science. You know, this disparagement of science is a very dangerous fact of life in our society. And for instance, when we get a vaccine, there'll be the anti-vaxxers on the

bandwagon. And I'm not saying that vaccines are all safe. There is an element of risk. But, you know, there is also the need for a population to protect itself. And I'm worried that when we get the vaccine, that there'll be a strong movement not to take it. And it'll be aided and abetted by misinformation, some of it deliberate. And this may be our only chance to rescue tens of thousands of lives and subdue this horrible virus, but I'm not sure we're going to be up to the task. I'm not sure if it's fair if I say this, but it does sound like you're not particularly optimistic here.

You know, the two modern examples you used resulted in little change. Let me say that I'm neutral on it. I'm not optimistic or pessimistic. I'm just observing that in recent history, we have subverted the opportunities that we've had to make profound change in our society, profound change that is constructive. And now I think we have, staring us in the face, you know, the need for political reform, the need for rehabilitation of our government. rehabilitation of our government, you know, there's a need to create alliances where we've been creating divisions. You know, all of these things are totally obvious, but that doesn't mean that they're going to be addressed in an adult fashion because we have failed so much recently. I worry about that, but I still cling to the belief that, you know, destiny is in our hands,

and we can make changes that will be profound and long-lasting and healthful, not just for the population, but for society and civilization as a whole. Okay. Lawrence Wright, author of The End of October, thank you so much for taking the time to chat with me today. Thank you, Jamie. It was a pleasure. Lawrence Wright's novel The End of October is out today, and you can buy it wherever you buy your books. I'm Jamie Poisson, and thanks so much for listening to FrontBurner.

Talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.