Front Burner - Lessons from B.C., as COVID-19 cases climb again

Episode Date: August 21, 2020

B.C. recently hit its highest daily COVID-19 case count since the start of the pandemic, but the province isn’t going back into lockdown. The CBC’s Tanya Fletcher on why that is and what lessons that could provide for other provinces.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. We can flatten our curve and safely reopen our province. But we must take it slowly. In the early months of the pandemic, B.C. was one of Canada's first big COVID success stories.

They flattened the curve early and started reopening in May. I want to reassure you that we would not be easing these restrictions if we did not feel we could do so safely. At the time, that seemed like a hopeful sign for people dealing with big outbreaks in other parts of the country. But now we're in August, and the picture in B.C. is looking pretty different. Our number of new cases is climbing, and it's climbing to levels that we haven't seen in a number of months. The number of people now in self-isolation is disturbing.

While some increase was expected, each of us knows our numbers are too high. Last week, they hit their highest daily case count, higher even than in April. But B.C. isn't planning on going back into lockdown. Instead, health officials are betting on a softer strategy. My guest today is Tanya Fletcher. She's CBC's provincial affairs reporter in BC, and she's been on the COVID beat since the start of the pandemic. We'll talk about how the province is fighting this new surge in cases

and what lessons the rest of Canada could learn as we anticipate seeing something similar. I'm Josh Bloch. This is FrontBurner. Hi, Tanya. Hi, Josh. Tanya, when I think back to May and June, you know, B.C. really seemed to be leading the pack among the most populous provinces in terms of getting this virus under control. Can you take us back to May when reopening first happened? What was the feeling like in B.C.? Well, I think there was really a feeling of relief and of success. And you're right, I think people, in hindsight, maybe a little too confidently felt that B.C. had effectively stamped out the transmission of the virus, at least kind of on a broad, large scale. I remember watching from Toronto. Here we were still in lockdown and we were feeling really anxious watching the numbers climb here.

And I remember seeing B.C. Premier John Horgan announce that his province was opening and that you could now hug your family. And there was a lot of praise about how the province and B.C.'s top doctor, Bonnie Henry, handled the pandemic at that time. The best way to protect everyone is to observe social distancing. Be sure you're washing your hands regularly. But if your circle has been tight, I welcome you to hug your mom. But people have to make those choices. If your mom has got a compromised immune system, it's best to keep that distance. Yeah, and I think too, a lot of people put trust, so much trust in Dr. Bonnie Henry. She's become not just a household name here, but a household hero,

as cheesy as that sounds. But I think people really do trust her. And it's because of her background. She helped battle Ebola overseas. She was in Ghana and in Pakistan. She helped lead the fighting SARS in Toronto way back when. And so I think she does have a lot of experience in this particular area. She really has earned the trust of British Columbians and the government as well. You know, Premier John Horgan, as you mentioned, he's seeing the highest ever popularity right now. And so I think people in BC,

there has been a lot of goodwill built up and it's been because BC has really, until now, led the way in being able to kind of stamp out the virus. But the picture right now is not quite as rosy. I mean, let's just talk about the numbers for a moment. How many active cases are we seeing right now in BC and how many new cases are we seeing popping up? Yeah, so right now BC has almost 800 active cases and that is the highest number of active cases to date in the province. So we are at our highest level on that. So initially BC back in March was peaking at about 70 to 90 new cases on a daily basis. And the past week or two, we have reached those levels once

again. So at its highest point, I believe it was last Friday, we had the highest ever daily case count, and that was 100 new cases in one day. That's the highest we've seen yet. I know it was always expected that when you start reopening society, there's going to be an increase in the numbers of cases. But are the numbers that we're seeing right now in line with what the government expected to see by this point? that we're seeing right now in line with what the government expected to see by this point? I think they are a little bit higher, or at least increasing at a faster rate. One of the most alarming things for the province right now that surely they're looking at is the plan was to see a gentle increase in cases. The plan wasn't to have cases double every two weeks. We were almost in the single digits in daily cases at the beginning of July, so in early summer. We went from an average of about 10 cases a day to 20 cases mid-month.

Another two weeks later, it doubled again to 40. And another two weeks later, we're at 80. So do the math, right? We are on that rise and that growth, and that is what is most alarming. I'm wondering what you're hearing from regular British Columbians about this. I mean, how worried are they about this sudden surge in cases, especially with the anxiety around schools opening in September? That's the big one, and that's, I think, the lens a lot of people are looking at these numbers through. a lot of people are looking at these numbers through is we're planning to fully reopen schools in just three weeks. And yet we're seeing our cases climb at such a steep rate. So why is this?

And I think there is a lot of that uncertainty. You know, the premier has come out time and time again. Dr. Bonnie Henry has come out trying to reassure people. And yet there is that anxiety. You know, on the one end, a lot of people want the government to do more. They want us to go essentially back into lockdown. You know, why aren't there stricter measures, firmer enforcement, more penalties for people who break the rules? So there definitely is that side of the coin. But on the flip side, you know, others say we need to get back to normalcy as much as possible. And we need to reopen as much as we can, despite the continuing spread of this virus, because it is going to be long term. So the government isn't shutting things down right now. But can you explain

what the current strategy is? Right now, the way the province is seeing its way through is to try to beef up its lines of defense. And so I think the main one right now is contact tracing. So right now, BC is able, is averaging about 98% effectiveness. So they're able to track down about 98% of a person's contacts, their circles of kind of social interactions within about 48 hours. And so because BC has seen a success at that, that's considered pretty good. They are confident that keeping up with the contact tracing is going to be our key line of defense. And so we saw just recently the province announced it's going to triple its number of contact tracers. So we had about 250 and they announced they're hiring 500 more.

it's asking questions that you know you wouldn't think about like okay so how did you get somewhere what was the first thing that you did when you got there how far away were you when you were talking with somebody else like how long did the interaction last for did you wash your hands before or after you ate your food it's kind of a microscopic exam of all of the behaviors that individual cases do at each setting. I saw that your colleagues did a story this week speaking with the contact tracers and just kind of profiling and explaining this painstaking work they do to track down every single person that's been in contact with someone who's now known to have the virus. It's quite remarkable and difficult work, but I imagine it's so important in terms of tracking where the virus is spreading.

Exactly. And that plays into, again, the Providence's strategy in saying if we can keep it under control and manageable in that sense, if we can find everyone who has it and if needed tell them to self-isolate, then we're banking on that to work. And the province is on that same note starting to expand its testing capacity. They mentioned they're going to aim to double, more than double, our testing capacity come the fall. So right now BC is able to test about 8,000 people per day. Come the fall, they want to have that at 20,000. And so I think we're seeing

a lot of people in self-isolation right now at home, 2,300. And it's because we're seeing these cases spread, but, and this is key as well, they're spreading in a demographic that is not generally being put in the hospital because of it. So that's key as well. The're spreading in a demographic that is not generally being put in the hospital because of it. So that's key as well. The elderly at this point are broadly protected because right, remember at the beginning, we saw not just in BC, but right across Canada, it was long-term care homes where the virus was just tearing through and it was spreading from facility to facility. And so BC has been able to largely curb that transmission. And so because seniors aren't seeing the bulk of cases in seniors right now, that's why we're not seeing our health care system overloaded. And just to put it in

perspective, too, like we saw two milestones come on one day this week. We saw the highest ever daily case count. On the same day, we saw the lowest ever hospitalization rate. We have just 10 people in the hospital in BC right now in total. Four of them are in ICU. And so while we have more active cases than ever, it's primarily in younger people and they're not generally in the hospital. So even though we're seeing a spike in numbers, that surge might not be quite as scary because of who is contracting COVID-19. Exactly. It tends not to be the more vulnerable populations. Exactly. But there is a word of caution with that as well, because, you know,

health officials have acknowledged, yes, there's a spread among young people, and often they're spreading it without even realizing it. Right. You know, many don't even have or have very mild symptoms. And so that's why this virus is spreading at such a fast rate. And so the. You know, many don't even have or have very mild symptoms. And so that's why this virus is spreading at such a fast rate. And so the, you know, provincial health officials have said, young people, beware. If you have grandparents, this could very easily spread back into the vulnerable population. As we have more transmission, more exposure events, the probability increases that somebody's going to take this home to their family, to their granny, to their grandpa.

And to be clear, even if the rate of severe cases is lower amongst young people in their 20s and 30s, this demographic can still get very sick. Exactly. We have seen and heard, you know, stories from people who've contracted the virus, young people who have still lasting side effects. And so that's part of the uncertainty as well. Well, so why do you think officials are sticking with this softer approach? Well, so why do you think officials are sticking with this softer approach? Well, they have. So part of their approach, too, is instead of broad sweeping lockdown style measures, they're confident enough they know at this point where the problem areas are happening. And the province has targeted those areas specifically. So a few weeks ago, the highest kind of measure of enforcement is a provincial health order. That's where the penalties, you can be fined. And so what the provincial health officer did is beef up those orders. There's some people out there who are trying to skirt the rules,

to trying to find ways to get around things and hide things. And we are trying to find them. So she said for vacation rentals, if she put restrictions on that, you can't have more than basically what is allowed in your home because people were renting, say, Airbnbs and then they were having social gatherings with more people than they should have been. They also brought in these smaller mitigations like you can't sing in bars and you can't go up to the bartender and order your own drink. You have to do it through a waiter as another effort to try and stop the kind of contact that people are having in these social gatherings.

But it strikes me that they're kind of taking a harm reduction approach. So that rather than shutting down the nightclub or shutting down the bar, they're saying, well, here are some ways to reduce the risk in those settings. That is a great way to put it. And you touched on that there about nightclubs. You know, a lot of people get messages from others in other countries and they say, why are nightclubs even open in the first place? That seems like the worst place where transmission can happen. And we put that to the provincial health officer. You know, why are these places even allowed to open? And this is key.

Dr. Henry said, because we fear that will drive the problem underground where we can't monitor and enforce it. So now it's out in the open. It's easier to do the contact tracing. It's easier to monitor where people are and what they're doing in these public settings. That's exactly right. We can find the people. We can know who was there, when they were there, and try to stamp out or keep up with the contact tracing.

Because obviously you can't have an officer just burst into somebody's house necessarily. You can't enforce that like you can at a regulated business. And so that's what the province is grappling with right now. And we are expecting updated enforcement measures. The premier promised, you know, we will have further penalties beyond warnings if that's what it takes. The trick is, how do you do that if this is happening, if these parties are happening in people's private homes? In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization.

Empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. No, their own household income. That's not a typo. 50%. That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. I noticed that Premier John Horgan has sort of ramped up the rhetoric and warned people that they're really going to crack down if they don't adhere to the guidelines. I mean, what does he mean by that?

That's a great question because, you know, as we talk about it, it's hard to enforce penalties that aren't even there in the first place. And we look at outdoor gatherings, right, at the beaches and people are upset with, you know, at the drum circle. gatherings, right, at the beaches and people are upset with, you know, at the drum circle, there were videos on Twitter circulating of hundreds of people not physically distancing. And so there's been, you know, a lot of moral outrage saying, why aren't these people being fined and ticketed? And the local, you know, bylaw enforcement, like even the Vancouver Police, the Park Board, they say the direction to them from the province has not been to fine and ticket. They say the direction to them from the province has not been to fine and ticket. And so perhaps we might see the province implement stricter guidelines and regulations in the sense of here are the rules and here are the fines or the penalties that will happen if you disobey. Because right now the messaging has been let's just encourage people and let's have positive reinforcement.

people and let's have positive reinforcement. But if it doesn't work or if it continues to see transmission among a certain demographic, then that's what they're going to zero in on. Well, it seems like one of those positive reinforcements has come through local celebrities. And I know that it seems like John Horgan has encouraged them to spread the message. I saw that Seth Rogen tweeted out that, you know, people of British Columbia, please do not go out to parties and barbecues and encourage them to actually hang out at home alone and smoke weed and watch movies, which is more fun, he suggested. And that Ryan Reynolds also weighed in on this. You know, young folks in BC, yeah, they're partying, which is, of course, dangerous. And they probably don't know that thousands of young

people aren't just getting sick from coronavirus, that they're also dying from it too. And of course, it's terrible that it affects our most vulnerable. You know, BC, that's home to some of the coolest older people on earth. I mean, David Suzuki, he lives there. My mom. But here's the thing. Yeah. And it's funny to see, you know, the province was pretty blatant about that tactic. We've seen kind of the stern dad approach, right? And that's kind of how people joke about the premier here is he's, you know, we've seen the scolding from the premier and that hasn't worked. And he's acknowledged that this is happening in a certain demographic that maybe isn't, you know't going online and listening to the premier or going to the BCCDC's website to watch their little cartoons about what we should be doing.

That's the Ryan Reynolds reference and Seth Rogen there saying, hey, if I can't, if I'm not the best conduit for this message for young people, then maybe these, you know, B.C. born celebrities can help. And so, yeah, maybe this was a bit of a staged ploy. But if it works, if those stints or stunts made the headlines and young people are hearing about it, then that's playing into the province and strategy all along with that. I imagine that there was a bit of an eye roll from young people as well in BC. Yes, I know. A lot of people are going, okay, you know, it plays team to the fact. You're trying hard, dad. You're trying hard. You're trying hard. Enough with the dad jokes. Like, we get it. So here's, I think, what the big question on many people's mind is, is what happens if this whole strategy doesn't work?

Yeah, that's the big what if, right? What if it doesn't work? And I think we're starting to feel rumblings of that kind of nervousness or ripples of that anxiety right now. And again, through the lens of schools are set to reopen in just three weeks. So what happens if there's an outbreak at school? And I guess that, you know, as you talked about, there has been a lot of trust and faith in Dr. Bonnie Henry's approach and the approach of the BC government. But if this plan doesn't work, there's a risk that that trust could really be eroded. That's very true. Right now, I think we're at a critical turning point in our pandemic here in the province, because if we have reached these milestones and are able to get back down, bend the curve back down, keep it under control,

then I think largely she will be praised for being able to foresee where the problem areas are, targeting those specific and zeroing in on the problem areas rather than reshuttering society as a whole. But if it doesn't work, a lot of that goodwill will evaporate and say, you know, well, why didn't we clamp back down more strictly when needed and sooner? And why are we reopening schools in full? Well, earlier this week, Quebec announced its second wave plan. And of course, this is something that all provinces are considering, what happens when,

if and when the numbers do go up. As the rest of Canada watches BC deal with this surge, what should they be looking for? I think who is getting infected is a big one, because then that allows health officials to target or zero in on where they need to. So who is getting infected, the age demographic, hospitalization rates, again, that's key because that's the critical indicator is do our hospitals, are they going to be overwhelmed? Our healthcare system, are they going to be overwhelmed? Is it going creeping back up in the long-term care home system? Are the elderly and the most vulnerable becoming infected again? Is the rate of transmission going to be manageable among the vulnerable demographic? I think those are some of the key indicators.

And if that happens, I think it will be up to each province individually, obviously, to find out what the best strategy is to clamp back down. Tanya Fletcher, thank you so much for speaking with me today. You bet. My pleasure. Before we go today, I want to tell you about something that we're working on. The Conservative Party of Canada will announce their new leader on Sunday night. We'll catch you up on what you need to know on Monday morning with Power & Politics host Vashie Kapelos. We've done a lot of episodes on the leadership race. You can find them in our feed.

That's all for today. FrontBurner is brought to you by CBC News and CBC Podcasts. The show was produced this week by the incredible FrontBurner team of Imogen Burchard, Shannon Higgins, Ali Janes, and Derek Vanderwyk. Mandy Sham does our sound design with help from Mac Cameron. Our music is by Joseph Shabison of Boombox Sound. The executive producer of Frontburner this week was Elaine Chao.

I'm Josh Bloch. Thanks for listening. See you on Monday. Yay, it's a weekend weekend. Weekend. Weekend.