Front Burner - Mark Carney goes to Washington

Episode Date: May 7, 2025

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump had their first face-to-face meeting, amidst an ongoing trade war between Canada and the U.S.The relationship between the two countries is at a historic low. On top of existing tariffs, Trump said on Monday that he wants to impose 100 per cent tariffs on movies produced outside the U.S. The move could have devastating implications for the Canadian film industry.On top of all that, there was the potential for things to go sideways, given how the meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Trump went earlier this year.There was a lot at stake.Aaron Wherry is a senior writer with the CBC’s parliamentary bureau. He spoke to Front Burner guest host Elaine Chau about how the meeting went, and where Canada-U.S. trade negotiations go from here.For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

1942, Europe. Soldiers find a boy surviving alone in the woods. They make him a member of Hitler's army. But what no one would know for decades, he was Jewish. Could a story so unbelievable be true? I'm Dan Goldberg. I'm from CBC's personally, Toy Soldier. Available now wherever you get your podcasts. This is a CBC Podcast. Thank you very much everybody. It's a great honor to have Prime Minister Mark Carney with us. Hi I'm Elaine Chao, senior producer on the show, filling in for Jamie today.

For Mark Carney, Tuesday afternoon started off with a friendly handshake with US President Trump. They were just outside the White House. And that vibe continued once they settled into the Oval Office, which seems to feature more gold by the day. — You see the new and improved Oval Office as it becomes more and more beautiful, with love, you know, we handle it with great love.

And 24-karat gold, that always helps too. — The stakes were high. It's Carney's first major task coming off the election. A few days ago, he won a very big election in Canada. And I think I was probably the greatest thing that happened to him, but I can't take full credit. His party was losing by a lot, and he ended up winning. So I really want to congratulate him. It was probably one of the greatest comebacks in the history of politics,

maybe even greater than mine. He ended up winning, so I really want to congratulate him. It was probably one of the greatest comebacks in the history of politics. Maybe even greater than mine. But I wanted to congratulate you. It was a great election, actually. The relationship between Canada and the U.S. is at a historic low. There's an ongoing trade war with the potential for escalation. On Monday, Trump said that he wanted to impose 100% tariffs on movies produced outside the U.S., something that could have huge implications

for the Canadian film industry. On top of all that, there was the potential for the meeting to go sideways. The Carney would get Zelensky. You're gambling with World War III. That things would unfold as disastrously for him as they did for the Ukrainian president when he met with Trump back in February. gambling with World War III. — that things would unfold as disastrously for him as they did for the Ukrainian president

when he met with Trump back in February. — They should have. — Have you said thank you once this entire meeting? No, in this entire meeting, have you said thank you? — And that these trade talks would really start off on the wrong foot. Aaron Wary is with me to talk about what went down during the meeting

and what it means for the Canada-U.S. trade war. He's a senior writer with the CBC's Parliamentary Bureau and friend of the pod. Hey, Aaron. Hey. So the public meeting in the Oval Office was about half an hour long. Anything surprise you about the tone? Like, it really struck me as being more friendly than I expected. Yeah, look, if the bar is sort of the Zelensky meeting, this one cleared that bar in terms of being calm and reasonably respectful. Still disagreements, but there wasn't shouting, there wasn't an attempt to gang up on the prime minister. I suspect coming out of that meeting, that sort of televised spectacle, I don't really know how else to describe it, these Oval Office meetings,

they're really supposed to be photo ops, but they have turned into these mini performances. I think if you're coming out of that as the prime minister and his staff, meetings, they're really supposed to be photo ops, but they have turned into these mini performances. I think if you're coming out of that as the Prime Minister and his staff, you're probably reasonably satisfied with it. There were a lot of standout, quotable moments as well, I thought. There was this moment when a reporter asked Trump, what's the top concession you want out of Canada? The top concession you want out of Canada?

Concession? Yes. Friendship. Yes, and to our colleagues' credit at Radio Canada, Lawrence Martin, she said, That's not a concession. No, I just, we're going to be friends with Canada. And that didn't seem to sway him. And I think that's, so look, we'll get to the other parts of it, but I think, you know, that is one

takeaway from those 30 minutes is that it's still not clear where this is going or what the discussion is or what Donald Trump wants. There was a moment for him to say, yeah, this is what I want from Canada or this is what would work for me to renegotiate the free trade deal and to drop the tariffs. And he didn't say that. I mean, I guess it's a positive that he said friendship. I think at another point in the meeting, he said – Regardless of anything, we're going to be friends with Canada. Canada is a very special place to meet. I know so many people that live in Canada. So, I guess that's somewhat reassuring, but it's, it's still not clear

coming out of today where this, where exactly this is headed. Um, the last prime minister to do this was of course, Justin Trudeau. And can you just contrast that for me a bit between Trudeau and Carney? Um, Trump actually brought up Trudeau and Krister Freeland during this meeting. Yeah, it's, it's funny. This one feels almost heavier in a way. The first meeting, the first time Justin Trudeau flew down to Washington to meet with Trump, it was also highly anticipated. There was also lots of concern about the optics. Justin Trudeau practiced how to shake hands with Donald Trump beforehand,

because at that point, the thing with Donald Trump was that he seemed to try to physically dominate other leaders when he shook their hands. But it seemed to go somewhat fine. It was uneventful. They seemed to get along. There wasn't a big blow up. But there also wasn't this overhanging issue, this question of Canadian sovereignty. There wasn't a trade war at the time. The stakes were, as much as that was a big deal at the time, the stakes actually feel higher this time. I think that's where you see Mark Carney having to navigate those 30 minutes in front of the television cameras where he has to sort of sit there impassively while Donald Trump talks about Justin Trudeau and criticizes Chris Freeland. I won't say this about Mark, but I didn't like his predecessor.

I didn't like a person that worked for, she was terrible, actually. She was a terrible person. And she really hurt that deal very badly because she tried to take advantage of the deal and she didn't get away with it. You know what I'm talking about. You know, it goes off on all sorts of things. He's criticized, he criticized Barack Obama and he criticized the governor of California and, and said a bunch of other things that, you know, Mark Carney might have objected to all sorts of things. He criticized Barack Obama and he criticized the governor of California and

said a bunch of other things that Mark Carney might have objected to or wanted to say something about. But Carney has to kind of sit there and I think you could watch him in real time figuring out when to interject, how to interject, how often to interject. My I, you know, my hunch would be that their vision going into this meeting was, you know, pick your spots, say a few things, get a couple points across, but don't turn this into an argument. Don't turn this into a debate because you just don't know where that will end. And that may just end up playing into the hands of

Donald Trump and the cabinet members that were around the table. Right. just end up playing into the hands of Donald Trump and the cabinet members that were around the table. Right. And he really seemed to calibrate the moments of pushback too, right? Like he made a joke about real estate, for example, when responding to the annexation threats. Yeah.

I think that was the one part of it where I thought, okay, that's a thing that they have planned on and they're ready. Mark Carney went into the meeting ready that if Donald Trump said 51st state, if he said anything about annexation or Canada joining the United States, here's what he was ready to say. The way he said it was quite interesting. He said – As you know from real estate, there are some places that are never for sale. That's true. We're sitting in one right now, you know, Buckingham Palace that you visited as well.

That's true. The nod to real estate and Mr. Trump's background, I thought actually seemed to charm Trump. Like Trump said, that's true. He laughed. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. And then Carney then said the next thing, which was, And having met with the owners of Canada over the course of the campaign last several months, it's not for sale, won't be for sale ever.

The prime minister of Canada in a meeting like that has to say that, has to make that statement and has to make that point crystal clear, both for the president and for Canadians. Canadians want to hear the prime minister say that. And I thought what was interesting too was, you know, he said it, he made that statement. You know, that'll be the headline tonight and tomorrow. But then even after that, Trump kind of kept coming back to it and saying,

But never say never, never say never. And, and Carney at one point actually decided to go back to it and saying, but never say never, never say never. And Carney at one point actually decided to go back to it and said, well, I respectfully, Canadians view on this and is not going to change on the 51st state. And so, you know, as much as you could see Carney trying to figure out when to interject and when to make his moves, he clearly had decided like that's kind of the red line. Like that's the one thing that I can't sort of let slide. Especially given we've just come out of an election where this issue was very much at the center of it.

Yeah, exactly. Like we, you know, Canadians chose Mark Kearney in part because they believed he was the right sort of person, right sort of character to have leading the country in this moment. But you know, also because I think Kearney was the most forceful about saying, you know, Canada is not the United States, will never be the United States. And this is a real break and a real rupture in the relationship. And we're a week past the election and so I think there was that much more pressure, you're right, on Carney to kind of make a definitive statement here. A VP at HBO said no one would ever watch Yellowstone. Stephen King was rejected by 30 publishers, Charles Schultz was told he'd never make a

living scribbling, and Missy Elliott was dropped by her label. The stories of famous names, their lesser-known rejections, and the insights those rejections provide. We regret to inform you the rejection podcast. Listen to season six wherever you get your podcasts. It was interesting to hear Carney compliment Trump at various points. Thank you for your hospitality and above all for your leadership. Your transformational president. Also said that Trump has revitalized international security, revitalized NATO and us playing our full weight in NATO and that will be part of it.

Which is probably the opposite what many people would say that he's done. Yeah, I think transformational is a word that he, I think reportedly used in a private phone call with Donald Trump too. I think it's a very interesting choice of adjective because I think it's. It could mean a couple of different things. Exactly. It's a word where Trump's, you know, biggest disciples would be like, yes, that's exactly right.

And Trump's biggest opponents would say, yes, that's exactly right. Uh, you are transformational. biggest opponents would say, yes, that's exactly right. You are transformational. Revitalizing NATO, again, you can see it as a sort of, it's sort of the same thing. You can sort of take it one of two ways. One is Donald Trump has forced other countries to step up and spend more on defense. The other is maybe he's made other NATO countries think that they can't rely on the United States and so therefore that's why they need to increase their spending on defense. He wasn't hostile, he wasn't negative towards the president, he wasn't looking for a fight necessarily. But at the same time, you know, in addition to saying these kind of things

like about revitalizing NATO and being a transformative president, Trump had said at one point, we don't do much business with Canada from our standpoint, they do a lot of business with us. We're at like four percent. And usually those things don't last. And Carney sort of came back to that at some point and said, actually, we are the largest client of the United States in in the totality of all the goods. So we are the largest client in the United States. Carney had another comment about renegotiating Kuzma and he made this kind of a bleak reference to part of the way you've conducted these tariffs has taken advantage of existing aspects of USMCA. So it's going to have to change.

There's other elements. That also seemed like a little bit of a push. And there were these little moments of pushing back, of kind of making the Canadian case, of setting up future arguments. And so it's such a surreal kind of production, right? Like, you know, usually the discussions happen entirely behind closed doors. You know, you could see Carney kind of trying to figure out how to play that. And I think he settled on getting a few points across, but not trying to win those 30 minutes

in a way that, you know, would have just led to a big fight. It's an intimidating room physically as well, right? Like Trump, you know, brought his core team there. J.D. Vance is there. Marco Rubio is there. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. And then Canada had kind of our foreign affairs minister, Melania Jolie, trade minister, Dominique LeBlanc, public safety minister David McGinty there. Like it's a, the space in itself is, it's very crowded.

That is all part of the context here too. Right? Yeah. I think you could safely say that Donald Trump is, is playing on home turf when he has these moments, right? Like not only is it his office, but he, you know, he's more used to these settings where you've got, you know, a few dozen reporters crammed in. They're all yelling questions.

You know, he's got his, uh got his cabinet members there, you know, and there's always whenever the United States is involved, there's going to be a slight power imbalance, right? Because they have a bigger economy, they have a bigger military, they have, you know, so on and so forth. Erin, I want to pick up on KUSMA, Canada-US-Mexico trade agreement. And this was, I feel like, one of the takeaways from that meeting as well in terms of both parties agreeing that it's a good starting point for trade negotiations. And like, were you surprised that Trump said that Kuzma was?

It's fine. It's there. It's good. We use it for certain things. It's there. We have the USMCA is a good deal for everybody. Yeah, I thought his comments on that were really interesting because at one point he called it sort of a transitional step a little bit.

And then at other times he called it sort of a. Transitional step a little bit. And then at other times he called it a good deal. And you know, the good deal part, I imagine is the fact that he signed it. And that's something that the Canadians have always kind of tried to lean on is this idea that, you know, you signed this deal, you described it as a great deal. You know, so let's stick with it.

And, uh, then when he calls it a, you know, a transitional deal, it's harder to know where things are going. I mean, the other, to state the obvious, when that deal was signed, I don't think anyone envisioned that the United States would then start pursuing all sorts of tariffs a few years later.

Uh, there is this, this renegotiation or this sort of, uh, review process that has to take place next year and so that could be coming up. It's hard to know where the president is going with all of this or what comments matter and what don't. And so you can sort of read it one of two ways. One is he seems to see some basis for a trade deal with Canada but it's hard to know exactly what that's going to look like. The other part of it is that whatever negotiations Canada goes into now, whatever deal ends up being signed, the last few months have probably shown us that you can't assume that that deal is going to solve all your problems, that there aren't going to be tariffs slapped on you at some future date, because even if Donald Trump himself signs the trade deal, Donald Trump may turn around and decide that he wants to do tariffs at some point

down the road. Yeah, a whole lot of uncertainty. Aaron, so there is the public meeting that took place in front of the cameras, but then there was also the closed door meeting that happened afterwards between Trump and Carney and their teams. And we just finished watching Prime Minister Carney's press conference about this. And what did he say about how the closed-door meeting unfolded? Yeah, Carney used some kind of classic political speak and described it as a wide-ranging and as I said a moment ago, very constructive discussions.

He did seem to come out of it thinking that, you know, the two sides were at least talking in specifics that would lead to real discussions, substantive discussions. But I don't think it's clear exactly what those discussions would entail, what's on the table, what the United States is looking for. But Carney seemed to at least come away from it feeling like there was the basis for a discussion, that there was some positive momentum. That's obviously going to take a lot more discussions at the cabinet level, perhaps more between Carney and Trump. And then we'll have to see whether there's some kind of formal negotiation process.

The most striking thing I think he said was. Really today marked the end of the beginning of a process of the United States and Canada redefining that relationship of working together. The question is how we will cooperate in the future. And I think that's probably the best way to look at this as Mark Carney especially has talked about, you know, the old relationship with the United States is over. And so it needs to be completely redefined. And if that remains the goal, then this really was just the first step, the first kind of getting to know you session between the president and the prime minister. Right. I think he was quite careful in managing expectations in the way that he was responding. And also, you know, I think he was saying that the meeting wasn't about laying down terms, but that there is, you know, there is a plan moving forward, a concrete path forward. Yeah, he had been very clear. I think he said it at his first news conference last week, he said it again today, but he's

a Catholic, so I guess he can make this joke. As I said before I came here, I wouldn't have expected white smoke coming out of this meeting. That was not my expectation. Because of the nature of the country. We wouldn't be... But there was no black smoke either. There was also no black, there was no fire. So I guess we're good.

Uh, you know, I think that's probably, you know, I think he probably knew going in that this wasn't going to magically solve everything. You know, I think there were a lot of questions about, well, what, you know, what, what are the deliverables and, you know, what did you get out of this meeting? And what about, why are, why are the tariffs still here? And, you know, Donald Trump And Donald Trump was asked at one point during that thing in the Oval Office. Is there anything he could say to you in the course of your meetings with him today

that could get you to lift tariffs on Canada? No. Why not? Just the way it is. So, I think everyone has to be fairly realistic about what today was. But in the context of that, you know, I think today went okay. This is all happening at a time where we're really starting to hear about and see the impact of the tariffs.

We've seen the General Motors plant in Oshawa cut down on their operations. Around 750 workers will be laid off. The Stellantis-Windsor assembly plant just announced that workers there can expect to work fewer hours for the next while. I should point out that the company says this is about a production changeover, but the union representing the workers says that it's really about the tariffs. And there's already quite a bit of anxiety in the Canadian film industry over Trump's comments from Monday about how he is looking to impose 100% tariffs on movies produced outside the US. You know, so given all of that, like what kind of political challenge does all of that news pose for Prime Minister Carney, you know, in the days ahead?

Yeah, I think it's a massive challenge. I mean, and I think it's good to talk about it because I think in some of the kind of intrigue and the focus on those 30 minutes in the Oval Office, there are massive real world impacts to these things. And we may be looking at a Canadian recession, we may be looking at the United States slipping into recession. The economic impacts are going to be real and Mark Carney is going to have to deal with that. And we should, I think, start to see some of the response to that when parliament comes back. You know, there's speculation that we might

get a new budget that, you know, there will be measures sort of put before parliament fairly quickly. But I think it's useful to remember that Mark Carney is kind of going to be a crisis prime minister from day one. And he's going to have to deal with not just having to negotiate with Donald Trump and figure out that kind of relationship, but how do you deal with the larger macro economic impacts of that. Carney touted himself as somebody who is well suited to deal with a crisis, who's experienced, who knows how to manage situations like that. That's really going to be put to the test over the next few weeks and months because again, as much as we have sort of speculated about what the

United States is going to do, the real kind of economic impacts of what the United States is doing are just going to continue to be felt and be felt more acutely in the weeks and months ahead. Aaron, thank you so much for talking to us today. Anytime. That's all for today. I'm Elaine Chao and for Jamie Poisson, thanks for go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.