Front Burner - 'Most hated' leaders split Brazil’s election vote

Episode Date: October 4, 2022

In an election that's divided Brazil, Sunday’s vote ended up even more split than polls predicted. Many pollsters had signalled that incumbent Jair Bolsonaro would lose the election on the first ballot, but the far-right populist far outperformed their predictions. Meanwhile, his leftist nemesis, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, failed to reach the 50 per cent of votes needed for victory — triggering a head-to-head run-off vote on Oct. 30. Today, Brazilian Report editor-in-chief Gustavo Ribeiro joins us to explain why these candidates are both the “most loved and most hated” politicians in Brazil and why Brazilians remain divided between these opposite ends of the political spectrum.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Jamie Poisson. In an election that's divided Brazil, the voting results ended up even more split than the polls predicted. That's the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro after the country's vote on Sunday, saying he, quote, overcame today's lie of his doomed polling numbers.

Instead, the far-right populist was just five points behind his leftist nemesis, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, often known simply as Lula. Since neither candidate got half the vote, Brazil is headed for a runoff, where Lula and Bolsonaro will face each other one-on-one. And it means four more weeks of campaigning in a deeply polarized country, where both men have religious followings and huge political baggage. To explain, I'm joined once again today by Gustavo Ribeiro. He's the editor in chief of the Brazilian Report and host of the Explaining Brazil podcast. Gustavo, thank you so much for being here. It's always a pleasure. Thanks for having me. So the first vote of Brazil's election narrowed us to two candidates, but

I know it didn't give us a winner and the vote was even more split than the polls predicted, hey? So if you could give me a top line summary here, why have Brazilians remained so divided between whether Lula or Bolsonaro is the best to lead the country? Bolsonaro is the best to lead the country? Well, that's the $1 million question, right? To see how Bolsonaro managed to outperform every major poll. Because for a little bit of context, in Brazil, we have a two-round system. If no candidate gets over the 50% threshold, then the two best voted candidates qualify for a runoff. Before Sunday, the question is, would Lula have enough votes for this outright victory? Because some polls showed him with 50 to 51% of the valid votes. And then when the vote counting started, we got a pretty different picture. And the election ended

with Lula with 48 percent, Bolsonaro with 43 percent. There were cheers for Lula as well as tears. But this wasn't the outright victory that his supporters had hoped for. After the results, Lula said there would be no let up in campaigning. I've never won an election in the first round. It's like destiny wants me to work a bit more. We are going to win the election again. It's just a question of time. Now, we have some ways of explaining this. One of this is the economy is doing better, is improving.

Government intervention has lowered fuel prices, that has tamed inflation. Then we also have the fact that with the end of COVID restrictions, the fact that vaccination, despite the efforts of the Bolsonaro administration to curb vaccination, actually it has reopened the economy. So job creation is back. Right. So that could explain a bit of a bump for the incumbent government, for Bolsonaro. Yes. And the fact that we also have the two best known, the two most loved and most hated politicians in Brazilian democratic history since the end of military rule, Luiz Inácio Lula da

Silva to the left, Bolsonaro to the right. This is more of an election of rejection rather than approval. Yeah. So a lot of people who are voting Lula, they're voting to bar Bolsonaro and vice versa. So we've talked on this show quite a bit about Bolsonaro, who is a far-right populist. He was a former military officer. But I wonder if maybe we could spend a bit more time on that other polarizing figure, Lula. And could we go kind of way back here, before Lula even ran for the presidency the first time around. Like, what was he known for in Brazil? So I would say that Lula is arguably the most improbable of

Brazilian presidents because he was born into poverty. His family was forced to migrate from a poor city in the northeast of the country to Sao Paulo, where they eventually settled. He used to live in this desert-like region, and then he went on to shine shoes in the streets of the state of Sao Paulo. Then he made it to the floor of a screw factory, where he began his career as a politician. of a screw factory, where he began his career as a politician. First, he was a union leader. Then he was the founder of the Workers' Party, which is the biggest left-wing party in Brazil. And then he became this sort of omnipresent figure in Brazilian presidential elections, because ever since Brazilians were allowed to vote for president again, either Lula was on the ballot or the people who were on the ballot were either

fighting to defend his legacy or to fight his legacy. So he has been this figure. Ever since I was born, Lula has been the biggest leader to the left. Why do you think that is? Why do you think it is that nobody has come to take his place? For one, Lula is an extremely charismatic figure. And his life story represents the life stories of a lot of millions of Brazilians. In a country where people mistrust politicians and

institutions, you have this guy that when he's talking about hunger, when he's talking about what it is for a mother not to have enough food for her children, he knows that from living it. So that strikes a chord with millions of voters. And talk to me a little bit about what he was able to accomplish when he did win the presidency in 2002 and when he took office in 2003. In Congress, raised fists salute his inauguration, the first leftist president in the country's history. I promise to maintain, defend and respect the constitution, to observe the laws,

to promote the well-being of Brazil's people. So to talk about what Lula did, we have to also talk about what the conditions were for the Brazilian economy, because Lula oversaw this magical period for Latin American economies, which was the commodities boom of the 2000s. It was present between 2003 and 2010. I mean, this period saw a massive inflow of dollars. We had almost full employment in Brazil. And Lula, to his credit, he did put in place a lot of measures to protect the purchasing power of families,

especially low-income families, such as indexing the minimum wage to inflation rates. It became a rule that it would have an adjustment of the minimum wage every year, at least to match inflation in a way to keep people's purchasing power. He also consolidated multiple aid programs into one single aid program called Bolsa Família. So it became this world-renowned program of cash transfer and extreme poverty eradication. cash transfer and extreme poverty eradication. The program the government created, Bolsa Família, provided around $30 per month to each of Brazil's poorest families.

The number of Afro-Brazilians in university triples. Unemployment rates reach the lowest number in history. And while the 2008 financial crisis spreads, Brazil rises from the 13th to 7th largest economy in the world. And one thing is interesting. So a couple of weeks ago, I think one or two weeks ago, we had the Global Wealth Report that was released. And I bothered to check the evolution of the Brazilian curves. And during Lula's tent in office, the Brazilian median wealth per adult increased six times. And it has halved since. And that's why millions and millions and millions of voters, they look with fondness to the Lula years. Now, of course, Lula should also shoulder a little bit of the blame for why the median wealth per adult has halved over this past 12 years,

because he force fed his former chief of staff to his party, saying that she would be his candidate for succession. She eventually won on his coattails and she carried out a disastrous economic policy that pushed Brazil into what was at the time the biggest recession on record in 2015 and 2016. High unemployment, rising inflation and a currency trading at 12-year lows. She was eventually ousted. She doesn't have the confidence of anyone anymore. They let us down. Those of us from the lower class thought the government was going to help us, but it's getting worse.

You know, another big threat to his legacy came in 2014, right? I just want to talk about this a little bit, with a corruption investigation under the name Operation Car Wash. So I wonder, I understand it's such a complicated investigation, but in brief, what did it reveal? I know it's been debated whether it's the biggest corruption scandal in any democracy ever. So Operation Car Wash was an investigation into money laundering schemes that pulled a thread that showed that every major political party in Brazil was involved in these deeply rooted corruption schemes. They were taking bribes from construction companies and favoring

these companies in public procurement processes. The probe implicated almost a third of Brazil's 594 member congress. Involving executives from the state-run oil company Petrobras that's engulfed dozens of the country's business leaders and politicians. Every single major political party was tarnished, especially Lula's workers party. And Lula was the sort of great white buffalo for this investigation. And eventually he was convicted of corruption and money laundering in 2017. That conviction was upheld by a court of appeals and he was imprisoned for more than a year. Former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to turn himself into police within 24 hours to begin serving a 12 year sentence for a controversial corruption conviction.

And he was barred from running in 2018 for office. Then the Supreme Court changed its views on how and when prison sentences should be enforced. That freed Lula, but he was still ineligible for office. And then last year, the Supreme Court decided that there were a lot of procedural errors with the prosecution against Lula. And the judge of the case, Sergio Moro, who actually won the Senate seat on Sunday, was biased against Lula. So the Supreme Court justices quashed all of the convictions against Lula. And for legal purposes, he still has the presumption of innocence.

Brazil's former president had maintained his innocence throughout his 18 months in prison. He said the cases against him were politically motivated. Now Lula looks likely to run against President Jair. So that's why he was able

to run again for office. I saw that you told our producer, Derek, that it's like a Rorschach test to ask a Brazilian if Lula was corrupt. Tell me more about what you mean by that. To ask if Lula was

corrupt or not is a Rorschach test because people who are fond of Lula say, well, he was just a victim of this corrupt investigation that went out of bounds in order to get him. People who don't like Lula will say, well, he is obviously guilty because how can we have this widespread corruption schemes running just everywhere in his party and he not be a part of. Perhaps the truth is between the two of them because in 2019, it was revealed that the judge of the case was in cahoots with the prosecutors, quarterbacking them on how to present petitions,

on how to present evidence in, on how to present evidence in a way that he would feel more comfortable in accepting them. pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household income? That's not a typo. 50%. That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search

for Money for Cops. Let's flip to Bolsonaro now. How might Bolsonaro's performance as president helped or hurt him with voters in this election? That's a really tough question to answer because in many ways, this administration has been a dumpster fire. And in some ways, literally, when you talk about the environment, right, it has stimulated land grabbing and Amazon fires just high rocketed since he took office. Since he took office in January, rates of deforestation have soared. Since he took office in January, rates of deforestation have soared. Now, as attention turns to wildfires surging at unprecedented rates, Bolsonaro is deflecting blame.

Regarding the fires in the Amazon, I am under the impression that it could have been set by the NGOs because they had asked for money. What was their intention? To bring about problems for Brazil? The pandemic response that Brazil had was atrocious. I mean, only the U.S. had more deaths than us. And the U.S. has 150 million more people than Brazil. A parliamentary inquiry has published its findings into President Bolsonaro's highly controversial handling of the pandemic there. The country's death toll from COVID at more than 600,000. And the president finds himself accused of crimes against humanity and misuse of public.

The president actively tried to prevent Brazilians from getting vaccinated. Throughout the pandemic, President Bolsonaro has repeatedly downplayed the COVID crisis, refusing to enforce lockdowns, mocking masks and casting doubt over the vaccine. And even after contracting COVID himself in July of 2020, the president refused to wear a mask or follow the country's COVID guidelines. In normal circumstances, I would say that it would be obvious that Bolsonaro would be unseated, especially against this massively popular figure as Lula. But Bolsonaro has impressively managed to craft for himself this almost cult-like following. most cult-like following. And these people will be with him through thick and thin, and they will vote for him regardless of the circumstance. It will give him the benefit of the doubt in any occasion. Bolsonaro's faithful, loud and loyal, with their president trailing in the polls, they tried valiantly this weekend to help save his political reign.

This is the best president in the world, she says. With him, we have freedom. Worshipping him for right-wing, strong-arm politics, they refused to give up on the beleaguered president. He loves Brazilians and the Christians, and he's against all of the rubbish. I've seen them chant Mito at his campaign events. What does Mito mean in Portuguese? Why do they say it? It's like, you're a legend. You're the man, or something like that, is the way to say, like, oh, this guy is not human-like.

He's a legend. legend. Because of his populist approach and also just his vibe, I guess, right? Like his personality. He's often been compared to former U.S. President Donald Trump, right? Who, of course, falsely claimed that the 2020 U.S. election was rigged against him. And how have we seen Bolsonaro casting similar doubts on this election? Yeah, I think that comparing Bolsonaro to Trump is tantalizing. But I refrain myself from doing such because the political systems are very different, right?

So we don't have an electoral college in Brazil. If the U.S. had the same system we have here, Trump would not have won in 2016 because we only have the popular vote, right? Every vote counts the same. And then also because of the fact that Bolsonaro has been questioning the legitimacy of Brazil's electoral system for more than a decade. So he was doing that before it was cool. Oh, he's doing it well before. I didn't know that. I didn't know that. OK. Yeah, he actually is behind the project, a bill that was introduced trying to reinstate paper ballots in Brazil.

that was introduced trying to win state paper ballots in Brazil. Since the late 90s, we have an electronic voting system that has never faced a credible fraud allegation. But Bolsonaro still insists that this system is rigged. And over the past four years, he has said that the system is rigged against him, even though him and his family members have won multiple congressional races and the presidency. So he still claims that this is rigged against him. So if he loses in the runoff to Lula, can we expect him and his supporters to accept the election result? I mean, I think he will probably call for a play, but at this point, I would not necessarily anticipate reactions such as the Capitol riots.

Because what we saw on Sunday's election was Bolsonarism is deeply rooted in the Brazilian political system and is maybe the central force of Brazilian politics. It's Bolsonarism and anti-Bolsonarism. His allies, they scored massive wins for the House, for the Senate, for governorships. It's a landslide on many races, even if Bolsonaro came second in the presidential race. And even if Bolsonaro loses, Bolsonarism has won in this election, and we will persist. So I think the incentives for an attempt of a democratic rupture are less appealing to the allies he would need in order to pull something of that kind off. But at the same time, the risks for democracy increase because now we're having this massively anti-democratic force coming to power through legitimate means. And what we've seen in countries like Hungary or Turkey is that when authoritarian forces gain power through legitimate means, they start chipping away at the democratic institutions themselves from within. So it's a bit of a paradox, but the risks for a coup attempt, I would say they're down, but the risks for about democratic backsliding, they're way, way up.

Okay. Gustavo, thank you so much for this. This has been so fascinating. Thank you. All right. That's all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening.

We'll talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.