Front Burner - New allegations of Russian war crimes in Ukraine cast shadow over talks

Episode Date: April 4, 2022

Negotiators from Russia and Ukraine met in Turkey last week to discuss an end to the ongoing hostilities. Since then, Russian attacks have continued and Ukraine has brought forward new allegations of atrocities committed by Russian troops. Disturbing images have emerged from Bucha, a town outside Kyiv, showing charred streets and bodies left in the open. Residents say civilians were killed by Russian troops, and Ukraine’s foreign minister has called it a “deliberate massacre.” BBC diplomatic correspondent Paul Adams joins Front Burner to explain the latest out of the war in Ukraine, what’s on the negotiating table and whether a deal is possible amidst the devastation.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Jamie Poisson. Hi, I'm Jamie Poisson. It's been more than a month now since Russia invaded Ukraine. And as the war drags on, people continue to die.

Over the last few days, horrifying images have emerged from the Kiev suburb of Bucha, of charred streets strewn with the bodies of civilians. Residents say they were killed by Russian troops. The UN estimates that at least 1,417 Ukrainian civilians have been killed since the invasion on February 24th, but the real number is likely much higher. As the tragedies mount on the ground, negotiators try to come up with a peace deal. Last week, Russian and Ukrainian officials met face-to-face in Turkey. Talks continued via video link on Friday. But as these talks go on, so do Russia's attacks and revelations of alleged atrocities. As Russian troops withdraw from northern districts of Kyiv, Ukrainian forces are arriving to find death and destruction in their wake.

Ukraine's prosecutor general announced a preliminary count of 410 bodies recovered from the area. These people were just walking and they shot them without any reason. Bang. Today, I'm talking to the BBC's diplomatic correspondent, Paul Adams, about what progress in the negotiations has been made, what concessions are on the table, and the likelihood Ukrainians will accept a deal with Russia. Hi, Paul. Thank you so much for coming on to the podcast. It's my pleasure.

But before we talk about the peace talks, I wonder if we could just update everyone on the last few days on the ground. You and I are speaking Sunday afternoon. And where does the war stand right now? Well, obviously, things have changed quite a bit in the last few days. And the principal change is that Russia has, as it said it would, shifted the focus of its military operations away from the capital, Kiev, and towards the east and the south. And so that's why we've seen in the last couple of days, pretty much a wholesale Russian withdrawal from those towns and villages close to the Ukrainian capital. We can talk a little bit about what Ukrainians have found as they've gone into those villages. And that has been, I think, another key element of this lastbass, where you've had these two separatist pro-Russian republics since 2014. In the north of the country, the occupiers continue to retreat,

slowly but noticeably. In the east, the situation remains extremely difficult. Russian troops are moving to Donbass and towards Kharkiv. They are preparing new strikes. We are preparing an ever more active defence. That is the area which Russia says it's going to focus its military activities on. And the key question now will be, does Russia have the military might and perhaps savvy to carry out a successful operation in that part of the country. And if they do manage to defeat the Ukrainians in the east and the south,

then will they once again turn their attention to the Ukrainian capital? In other words, are they just doing things one at a time now? Or have they really realized that actually capturing Kiev is simply not doable? I do wonder if we can touch on what was found, these horrific images that we have been seeing in streets, reports of a man's hands tied behind his back with a white cloth. Bucha's town mayor says these are just some of several hundred civilians killed. Corpses of executed people still line the Jablouska street in Bucha. Their hands are tied behind their backs with white civilian rags. They were shot in the back of their heads.

And when we're talking about peace talks here, this seems like a horrific backdrop to have any kind of conversation about peace. It really does. I mean, it seems almost obscene, doesn't it, to be even talking about peace. It really does. I mean, it seems almost obscene, doesn't it, to be even talking about peace talks when such appalling things appear to have happened. And look, we need to be a little careful. We've just seen the images. They do tally, I have to say, with some of the reports that we were hearing coming from people in those communities while the Russians were around. There was one appalling photograph

of a man who's clearly just cycling along on his bicycle and appears to have been shot as he was cycling. Another incredibly powerful image just shows a blackened woman's hand lying on the ground and she seems to have dropped her keys. And on those keys in the key ring is a little EU emblem. I mean, perhaps nothing could be more devastatingly eloquent of the, you know, the kind of shattered dreams that so many Ukrainians have of, you know, of a future with the West, with the EU, with NATO. So, you know, these images point to some horrendous things that have happened in the past month. Ukrainian military officials warned that Russian troops planted mines in homes, on the streets, even under dead bodies. They found 1,500 units alone in one small town.

And we will need to know more about how those things happened, who was responsible. And, you know, is anyone going to be held accountable. Against that backdrop, it's really, really hard to be talking about peace talks at all. In fact, no one frankly is in the last day or so. They've gone slightly under the radar, they're carrying on online, and no doubt we will get updates at some point. But this has created such a kind of a well of deep shock and anger, not just at Russia, by the way, but also at the West for allowing any of this to happen. So it is definitely something that is souring the entire atmosphere right now. Big picture up until now, how had these talks been going?

Well, it's difficult to tell. They've been going on really almost since the first day or day or two of the Russian invasion. Amazingly, there were talks on the Belarusian border within a couple of days of the attack beginning. Ukraine and Russia have started their first talks since Russia's invasion now in its fifth day. Ukraine said it would be pushing for a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian troops from its territory. And they've kind of gone this way and that, and they've gone quiet,

and then there have been quite public encounters like the meeting between the Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers that took place in Antalya in Turkey two or three weeks ago. That didn't seem to yield very much. But then just this past week, we did seem to have a kind of a sudden flurry of comments from both sides suggesting that some kind of progress was being made. But after four hours, the most significant progress so far, Russia's deputy defense minister announcing Russian troops would drastically reduce activity in central Ukraine around Kiev and the city of Chernihiv.

That the Russians didn't seem any longer to be particularly preoccupied with the city of Chernihiv. Ukrainian officials say... That the Russians didn't seem any longer to be particularly preoccupied with the notion of denazifying Ukraine, as they put it. That there were advanced negotiations on security guarantees, which would allow Ukraine some kind of improved security architecture once the fighting is over with a number of

international countries, including Russia, by the way, ensuring that Ukraine's security will be guaranteed in a way that would be almost similar to Ukraine actually being a member of NATO. NATO's famous Article 5, where an attack on one is an attack on all. Well, some of the discussion seems to be around whether if Ukraine were to be attacked in the future, countries like the United States, Canada, the UK, France, Germany,

would spring to its defence, and more or less immediately. So that's obviously quite a significant area of discussion. But I think, you know, we need to be very, very careful. The fighting is still raging. And, you know, I think it is almost axiomatic in a situation like this that until certainly one, but usually both sides, feel that there's nothing they can really gain on the battlefield,

both sides feel that there's nothing they can really gain on the battlefield, then it's hard to see peace talks really arriving at anything very conclusive and there are clearly some very major obstacles that divide them. I'm going to go. empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household income?

That's not a typo. 50%. That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. There was a report this weekend that perhaps the talks had gotten far enough that Zelensky and Putin may actually be able to sit at a table. Tonight, a potential breakthrough. The stage may be set for a face-to-face meeting between President Putin and President Zelensky. The lead Ukrainian negotiator saying that Russia has verbally accepted all of Ukraine's positions except on Crimea.

verbally accepted all of Ukraine's positions except on Crimea. Nothing in writing yet, but he says, according to Turkey, the intermediary, Russia may now be open to a meeting between the two leaders in the near future. How realistic do you think that is? Well, that's something the Ukrainians have been asking for, for the better part of two years, asking for, for the better part of two years since the one and only meeting between Putin and Zelensky in Paris at the end of 2019. There hasn't been an encounter between them since then. And frankly, every time the Ukrainians have made this demand, the general Russian response has been, well, your problem is with those separatists in the east of the country. You talk directly to them. It's nothing to do with us. Now, obviously, it's clearly that's not an argument anymore.

It clearly is something to do with Russia. Russia is, you know, is now more obviously and blatantly leading this. And so it's hard to argue that that's not the right address. It's hard to argue that that's not the right address. But what the Russians are saying is, yeah, we can have that meeting, but all of these documents need to be finalized first. And so I think it's highly unlikely that we're going to see that happening anytime soon because, you know, there's an awful lot to be sorted out. The security guarantees, well, that's a hugely complex area. Well, that's a hugely complex area. The question of whether the Ukrainian offer to put the issue of Crimea on hold for 15bass, those two separatist areas, what will be, how will you gauge public opinion in those two territories when talking about what should happen to them in the future? All of these things are highly complicated and there's no sign that the two sides are anywhere close to agreement on

those. And so I don't think we should be expecting a meeting between Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelensky anytime soon. These security guarantees you talked about, the idea that Ukraine would be guaranteed security by other countries, by Canada, the United States, the UK, this sounds like NATO without NATO to me. And so how is that even possible to make a deal that would include a guarantee like this? Yeah, it's hard, isn't it? I mean, I think the fact that it is not NATO has a kind of symbolic significance for Moscow. You know, the Russians apparently are saying that they have no problem, for example, with Ukraine joining the EU, and specifically because it is not a military political bloc. And so if this can be couched in such a way that it is that Ukraine is not part of this Western alliance,

there'll be no placing of NATO personnel or equipment or facilities on Ukrainian territory, that if there are going to be exercises involving NATO members, that Russia will have a say in all of that. I mean, I think the key thing is that Russia gets a say. If Russia is part of one of those countries that is supposed to be offering Ukraine security guarantees in the future, then Russia will have to have a say on anything security and military related that happens on the territory of Ukraine. And so that is where this could be resolved. But it definitely must not have any sort of sense of having a NATO stamp on it, because that clearly for Russia is unacceptable.

And just to come back to the territorial issues at play, I know that Zelensky has said the territorial integrity of Ukraine is not up for compromise here. And so, you know, I guess the question I have is how likely is it that Ukraine's pre-February borders can come out of this intact? Yeah, it's perhaps one of the biggest questions of all. I mean, he's going to say that, isn't he? He's going to say to his own people that that is our starting position. The territorial integrity of Ukraine should not be compromised. And I think he will cling to that position as long as he can. is kind of an indication that he's not expecting Crimea to return to Ukraine anytime soon, and perhaps not at all, which perhaps is not so surprising, given the fact that Russia's takeover of Ukraine was fairly straightforward. There's quite a significant pro-Russian population there.

It was, after all, part of Russia until the 1950s. The Donbass is different. Hundreds of thousands of Russian passports have been handed out. A lot of the people who lived in those two areas, Donetsk and Luhansk, who were pro-Ukrainian, fled and are now living elsewhere in Ukraine. So, you know, to a certain degree, those two areas have slipped away from Kiev's grasp steadily over the past eight years. And so, again, I think we'll see, just as we are seeing with Crimea, a kind of willingness on the

part of the Zelensky government somewhat to kick that can down the road without formally renouncing any claim on those territories. It is going to be a difficult one. Is Kiev willing in the long run to see the Donbass go as well? Some in Ukraine would be, but you're not going to hear that from the Ukrainian government. And that's why you're hearing at the moment that some of these issues will have to be put to a referendum. And right now, you know, with emotions as high as they are, that is tantamount to saying referendum. And right now, you know, with emotions as high as they are, that is tantamount to saying no. I imagine even harder after the incredibly disturbing images that we've seen this last

weekend. I just wonder if you could explain to me a little bit more about what this referendum is for people who might not have heard of it. Well, so that would be putting some of these big changes to the test, asking the people of Ukraine what they want. And, you know, everything that has happened since 2014 has had the effect of persuading Ukrainians, even those who were inclined to be pro-Moscow before in some of those eastern Ukrainian cities. It has persuaded them that their future does not lie with Moscow and that they feel more Ukrainian. You know, support for NATO membership, support for joining the EU, all of these things have increased dramatically over the last eight years, and in particular, obviously,

in the last month. And so in a way, offering to put change to the Ukrainian people, and that change could be territorial boundaries, the future of Crimea, the question of NATO membership, all of these things, I think will be viewed certainly by the Russians as a mechanism for saying no. A number of Ukrainian members of parliament have expressed skepticism that Russia actually even wants any kind of peace deal. They've called the talks a smokescreen for Putin. And this idea that Russia is scaling back some of its forces moving out from around Kiev, I know this kind of touched on what we addressed at the beginning of this conversation, but what are the chances that Russia stays true to its word? I don't think anyone should assume that they will.

You know, people, you know, people who've watched Russia over the years, whether it's, you know, in Syria, in Chechnya, or even, you know, over issues like the poisoning of people here in the UK, are very, very used to a Russian narrative that veers wildly from one set of arguments to another, you know, sometimes several times a day. And I think we're seeing a little bit of that with these peace talks. You know, while they've been going on, we've heard all sorts of ideas that have come and then gone,

talk of progress being made, and then other Russian officials saying, you know what, no, really nothing much has changed. So I don't think anyone should or is likely to have any kind of real faith in these talks, maybe until Vladimir Putin puts his stamp on it. Because at the moment, it is just officials talking. And I think everyone is right to be sceptical. At some point, it will be in Russia's interest to do a deal. But while they're regrouping their forces, possibly for a very, very significant assault on the east where the Ukrainians have some of their best troops, then it is both necessary and entirely understandable that people should be sceptical. If the Russians were to push ahead in the Donbass, if they were to

encircle those crack Ukrainian troops that are based in that area, encircle them by moving from the north and also from the south, if and when the Russians manage to suppress Mariupol. In the besieged city of Mariupol, thousands have been trapped for weeks. There's no power and medicine, food and water are hard to find. and medicine, food and water are hard to find. Then, you know, the Russians will suddenly find themselves in a militarily much more advantageous position. And who's to say, having reached that position, that they won't decide to press ahead and to hell with peace talks?

Paul, thank you so much for this. This was really helpful in understanding what's going on right now. That's my pleasure. All right. So before we go today, international leaders are planning more sanctions against Russia because of what we're seeing in Bucha now. The leaders of Germany, the EU, and the UK are among those condemning what Boris Johnson called, quote, more evidence that Putin and his army are committing war crimes. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the killings are a punch to the gut and said that America would help document the atrocities to hold the perpetrators accountable.

Russia's foreign ministry denies that its forces killed civilians in the town. That's all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening, and we'll talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.