Front Burner - Pierre Poilievre’s Donald Trump problem

Episode Date: March 25, 2025

With the federal election underway, Pierre Poilievre’s political opponents have intensified their accusations that the Conservative leader is like U.S. President Trump.On Sunday, Liberal leader Mark Carney said that Poilievre mirrors Trump in language and intention, and that he followed the administration’s lead in proposing foreign aid cuts.For weeks now, the party has been putting out ads focusing on the similarities between Poilievre and Trump.NDP leader Jagmeet Singh said, also on Sunday, that Poilievre is endorsed by Elon Musk, who is leading the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency.In a country where the majority of people have negative views of Trump, this start to the campaign likely wasn’t an ideal one for Poilievre and his team.CBC parliamentary bureau reporter J.P. Tasker, who’s currently on the campaign trail with the Conservatives, outlines Pierre Poilievre’s Trump problem, and what it might mean for the campaign moving forward.For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

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and exciting cities. It's the sort of city you could visit countless times and always explore and experience something new. There's Business Class and then there's Emirates Business Class. Book now on emirates.ca. This is a CBC podcast. The perspective that Pierre would bring would be very much in sync with I think the new direction in America. Hi everyone, I'm Jamie Poisson. Today's episode is about conservative leader Pierre Paulev, but I need to start with a

story about Danielle Smith, Alberta's premier, and something that she is on tape saying to an American right-wing media platform. Smith says that she told U.S. officials they should put the tariffs on pause during the election because they are helping the Liberals' political future. The conservative leader was asked about the Smith tape at his campaign launch. Well, my response is that the president has said that he thinks it would be easier to deal with a liberal. And with good reason, the liberals have... A premier asking the White House to interfere in our election, something that Smith's press secretary has denied, would be a big story on its own.

But it's also a microcosm of a political challenge that Pierre Poliev is facing right now, which is his opponents linking him to Donald Trump. In a country where 77% of people are very displeased with the US president, I think it is reasonable to say that this is a challenge for the Poliev campaign. Today on the show, my colleague, JP Tasker is with me. He is currently on the campaign trail with the conservatives, and we are going to talk about Pierre Poliev's Trump problem.

[♪ MUSIC PLAYING FADES out.] Hey, JP. Hey, Jamie. Thanks for having me. Always great to have you. So let's start by going through some of the comparisons that are being made between Poliev and Trump. These comparisons are obviously being lobbed by his opponents.

The liberals have done a lot lately in the form of attack ads. One of the nastiest countries to deal with is Canada. It's not the Americans' fault. It's our fault. We're stupid. Take me through some of these ads. What do they do? Yeah, I mean, a big part of the liberal campaign strategy

is painting Pierre Poliev as a sort of mini Trump or a maple syrup mega as Kristi Avrilian called him in the liberal leadership election. We will defeat Pierre Poliev and his maple syrup mega. And the party has put some money behind these campaigns. They're running on social media, but also conventional television. If you've been watching March Madness, you might have seen them. So these are some pricey ads that they've paid for. And the one that's getting the most rotation

is called Made in America. And they essentially put Trump's comments side by side with what has said to show that there are some rhetorical similarities between the two. Everything is broken. Everything is broken. Fake news. Fake news. The left-wing censorship regime. Their woke censorship ideology. Defeating the radical left. Radical leftist authoritarian. And at the end of this ad, the liberals point out that both Trump and Poli have actually supported the trucker convoy that kind of took over Parliament Hill in Ottawa back in the COVID era. We want those greatving truckers who have

kept my family... They're trying to remind Canadians that, yes, Paul Yev has kind of tapped into some of the Trump ethos. He's been down on Canada. He has said Canada is broken, that the liberals have ruined this country. And that sort of talk has given him a boost over the last two years. Poliev has really had a lot of success because he's mimicked some of the successful rhetorical measures that Trump deploys.

But it's coming back to haunt him a little bit now because the electorate has changed, right? Trump's name is mud after the tariffs and the 51st detente, especially with more moderate voters that will decide this election. So, Paul Yates had to pivot himself, but the liberals are really trying to capitalize on the similarities. Right, I see there was another one

where it's a clip of Trump actually being asked about the Canadian election back in January. Are you looking forward to working with Pierre Pouliver, the new guy? I am. If that's what happens, certainly it will be very good. Our views would be more aligned. Worth pointing out here is not just attack ads. You mentioned Christopher Freeland, but Carney has also been doing this directly as well.

For example, right on Sunday, he did it right after he called the election. Yeah, I mean, Carney has said that, you know, he's pointed out that a lot of the language that Poliam deploys mirrors some of the stuff we're hearing from Trump. First, the comparisons are quite easy. You look at the language, the language mirrors

and the track record of language stretches back over years. It's not a recent phenomena. It's also on policy as well because, you know, Poliev's made a lot of commitments. He's made some campaign promises before this election even got underway and they're going to be quite costly to implement. And how is Poliev going to pay for that in part? By cutting foreign aid.

We spend about $15 billion a year on foreign aid. And so he wants to slash and burn that. What has Trump done with Doge and Elon Musk? Well, he's essentially gutted USAID, right, and essentially taken America out of the foreign aid business. Elon Musk stands up and says, and the Trump administration eliminates foreign aid. Within a few days, Pierre Poliev flies in and out of Nunavut and says, I'm going to eliminate foreign aid.

By the way, he doesn't talk to the premier, doesn't talk. Poliev is going to have to wear that one in part because Carney is saying it's not just what they say, there's also some policy overlap here. Trump is going after some of the most vulnerable people on earth and Poli will do the same thing. That's the charge. When it comes to policies, are there any other parallels that are being drawn between the two? Well, they're certainly aligned on tax cuts.

You will remember that Donald Trump essentially ran his presidential campaign, blasting Joe Biden and the Democrats for the economy they created in the cost of living crisis that he blamed on them and inflation and he promised to make life better for people by cutting taxes. And that's sort of what we're hearing from PR Poliev as well. He said we've been through this liberal decade of darkness that things have been miserable for the last 10 years, people can't afford everyday essentials. And he's announcing that there will be a sizable middle-class tax cut in his

first budget, you know, a tax cut that will affect essentially all people who pay taxes in this country, income taxes. Today, I'm announcing that Canada first conservatives will cut income taxes by 15% for the average worker or $2,000 for the average couple. And it's going to cost the federal treasury about $14 billion. Um, but isn't Carney proposing a tax cut too? He is, but it's a smaller tax cut. It's about, um, not quite as generous as what Poliev has pitched.

Poliev's proposing to bring the tax point down about 2.25% and Carney it's promising he's promising 1%. So it's not quite as generous, but yes both are pitching tax cuts as a way to woo voters for sure. I know that they were both enthusiastic about Bitcoin. You got the payment. Come on over here. We bought the swarma with Bitcoin. Trump has created a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Poliev has said that he wants Canada to be the blockchain capital of the world.

And another one that I think is maybe worth mentioning here is that Poliev has somewhat waded into the trans debate. He has said, Well, I'm not aware of any other genders than men and women. I mean, if you have any other that you want me to consider, you're welcome to tell me right now. He has said that he supports banning trans women from women's bathrooms, change rooms, and sports.

But obviously, and I know we're gonna talk more about differences in a bit, but the American administration is clearly going much further. Trump has signed executive orders saying that there are only two genders barring trans people from serving in the military and banning trans women from women's sports. And unlike Poliev, Trump has explicitly spoken about these issues at length, whereas Poliev has just spoken about them when pressed by journalists.

Another one, both leaders have also spoken about defunding institutions like universities or firing people who subscribe to a quote woke ideology. The Trump administration is currently moving to defund universities because of what they describe as the school's failure to squelch anti-Semitism on campus. Pauli has talked about this as well. I will make clear to universities that if they spread anti-Semitism or make Jews feel unsafe and uncomfortable on their campuses, they will not be eligible for federal funding. I want to ask you about another comparison that we hear a lot about. Trump's relationship with the media and Poliev's relationship with the media.

Both are known to mock and criticize reporters. Poliev, for example, has said that he would like to defund the CBC. How quick? Very quick. Very quick. So that doesn't mean you're shutting them down, right? I'm going to defund the CBC. That's my commitment.

I said my commitment has been the same since I first said it at my very first leadership rally in Regina. I said we will say we will defund the CBC to save a billion dollars. That was my commitment. On Wednesday, actually, PBS and NPR will appear before a Doge subcommittee to defend the public dollars that they receive. And tell me more about the media part of this. Well, I mean, the conservatives have decided to block journalists from traveling with Poliev on his campaign plane and bus during this election. They say it's a cost saving measure, but media outlets have always paid their own way. So it's part of a larger strategy of controlling the message better. You know, they want to have better control over press conferences. They want to stick handle the messages that come out of these kind of daily events and

it's an opportunity to give more questions to potentially right-wing journalists from outlets like the Toronto Sun, you know, the tabloid, True North, possibly Rebel News, and it's also a chance to give more questions to local reporters who might be asking about local priorities and not the big political story. You know, Paulie Evans had a fractious relationship with the Parliamentary Press Gallery in particular with CBC News, as you say, some other outlets that are not on Parliament Hill. No, no, I asked you a question.

You keep asking me the same question. We asked the question. We're the journalists here in the democracy. We asked the question. I have the freedom to ask questions if I want to. We have basically a liberal heckler who snuck in here today. I'm a liberal heckler. Are you serious?

I'm asking you a question. Are you serious? Come on. You're telling me. No, excuse me. Let me answer you. There's that famous moment where he's biting an apple and sort of mocking a reporter who's asking him a question.

A lot of people would say that you're simply taking a page out of the Donald Trump book. Which people would say that? reporter who's asking him a question. It's never been a very positive relationship, but I'll say in the first few days of this campaign, it is a little different than you might expect. I mean, CBC News, we got the first two questions both days on this campaign trail. I got a question to Paul Yev. I was the very first one to ask him one yesterday at the campaign launch. He seems to be in a more jovial mood with the media. I guess he's trying to project an image that he's a friendlier sort than he has been in

the months past. But certainly there's a track record there of having a not entirely positive relationship with the press, just like Donald Trump. That question that you got to ask him the other day, it was about Trump, right? You asked him if he respects Trump. What did he say? Well, he says he respects the office of the president and he will have a respectful relationship with the US, but it'll be a firm relationship too.

You can be respectful and firm. And I believe we have to be both. I will insist the president recognize the independence and sovereignty of Canada. I will insist that he stop terrifying our nation. He's trying to paint this picture of him being a tough guy, that he's capable of taking on someone like Donald Trump, that he's not going to roll over in the face of threats and taunts. And that while there may be some similarities in terms of what they say, in terms of the political messaging, there are some overlap. He's trying to make the case that I'm not a Trump guy. I'm not MAGA and I will stand up for Canada's best interest.

So he's trying his level best to convince voters that it's not just Mark Carney and the liberals who will stand up for Canada. The Conservatives are also capable of doing that too. We'll see if it works. But that is definitely the message he's trying to portray. But it's a difficult one for him, Jamie, because so many Conservative voters actually have a positive view of Trump. It's not everyone, it's a minority. I mean, it's not certainly a majority at all. But when you look at some of the polling that was done last fall, I think it was about 44% of all

conservative voters in this country say they would have voted for Trump last fall in the presidential election. That was some of the data that Enveronix had published. And so that suggests that nearly half of the conservative party base would have aligned with Trump in November. And so he has to be a bit careful about how far he goes in terms of being critical of Trump because there's not an insignificant number of his own voters who don't want him to trash talk the president. Yeah, just on that point, here's some polling from February. So even after, like, the tariffs had really escalated and the 51st day stuff has really had really escalated. 33% of conservatives supporters still had a positive view of Trump. The following is advertiser content from Emirates.

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on criticizing the Trump administration around the 51st state stuff. He has been. My message to the president is this, Canada will fight back. We will defend our people and our economy and we will put Canada first. There's no doubt that our economy will suffer, but so will yours, president Trump. In fact, there are a lot of other points where the two leaders diverge as well, right? I have always thought that this mini Trump thing, Canada's Trump thing, is a bit lazy,

right? When Mark Carney said that at the liberal leadership debate, the poly of worships Trump, like, how do we know that? Where are the receipts for that? And just walk me through a few other examples of where they are really different. Well, I mean, Donald Trump is a billionaire businessman, right, who made his fortune in real estate and casinos. And Pierre Poliev is definitely not that. He does own some rental properties, but he's not, you know, a huge property baron like the president by any

means. And he really does come from humble beginnings. I mean, his birth mother gave him up for adoption when he was an infant. He was raised by two school teachers. He has this, you know, solidly middle class childhood on the prairies. And by all accounts, he was obsessed with politics and conservatism from an early age. He was involved in campus politics. He's worked his whole life on Parliament Hill, that's his profession. That's not what Donald Trump did, right? I mean, he kind of got into politics late in the game. And so there's a big distinction there in terms of the backgrounds. And I would say that Poliev is not as strident as Trump on some social issues. Like we have never thought of Poliev as being from the social conservative wing of the party. That is

not where he is typically fallen when you break this down. He is pro-choice. He's been very clear about that. Yeah, he supports a woman's rights to choose. He's fine with same-sex marriage. You mentioned the trans issue. He has been a critic of puberty blockers in particular, and there is, you know, sort of, particular and there is, you know, sort of, he has said that there are two genders. But the anti-trans narrative is not a focal point of his campaign by any means. So I think that there is an important distinction there. I mean, Donald Trump is a half-hearted social conservative in many ways, but he has pushed some socially conservative policies. He appointed Supreme Court justices that push that agenda. And so you're just not seeing that level of enthusiasm from Poliev in part because the electorate here is just so much

more moderate and centrist when it comes to social issues. Yeah. And also, you know, Poliev is not a nativist like Trump. He is pro-immigration. When he is called to decrease immigration levels, he has linked it to the need for housing. I think that's an important one. His big policies have really been like very traditional conservative ones. Like he's harping on cost of living issues, cutting the carbon tax, building more houses, also crime and justice.

And again, because I want to be here, like the most frightening criticism leveled against Donald Trump at the moment is that he has opened the door in America to a fascist oligarchy. And that is clearly very far from what is happening in Canada. But it doesn't mean that it's not a problem for his campaign, right? So let's talk more about what they are and what they aren't doing. You know, one of the things that the attack ads have been trying to leverage that we haven't talked about yet is really like tone, right? Trump loves nicknaming his opponents, the governor of

Canada, Sleepy Joe Biden, Crooked Hillary. And for a while, Polio was using like sellout sing and for the NDP leader, Carbon Tax Carney. And have we seen the campaign scale back now that the election is on and why do you think that is? Well, they were calling him carbon tax Carney up until a few days ago. Yeah, I guess until he canceled it. You're right. Yeah, until Carney dialed it back and essentially suggested

that it will be Dunzo when he's elected. But yeah, I mean, that has been a huge part of Polyev's brand is nicknaming people and sort of blasting people and using catchy pet names for people. And that's definitely part of his shtick. But I haven't heard much of it in the last few days since this campaign launched, I think that there maybe is a recognition that there has to be a tonal shift from Poliev if he wants to win, that they can't just run a strictly base campaign where they appeal to the diehard conservatives, that they do have to go for those more moderate centrist voters, especially in regions like the 905 in the greater Vancouver area where people are not necessarily lifelong conservatives. I have definitely noticed that Poliev is not the same Poliev that I've known for the last two years. I think that there has definitely been a bit of a rebrand before all this gets

underway, before all the eyeballs are fixated on him for the next 36 days or so. And there is, you know, us reporters have been talking about how he does seem like a different guy. I think it's probably worth us talking about this video that they released that the conservatives released. It was in French of Poliev. And he was talking about how there are some people who say that he's too strong and intense with journalists and other politicians and he goes on to say that... The liberal duo Carnit-Rodeau who doubled the national debt, that's what I find intense.

What do you make of how he's acknowledging this? Well, I think he's trying to make the case that why he's been negative and why he's been so frustrated and why he might come off a little sharp sometimes is because he's just frustrated with the Trudeau record with the liberal government and what they have done to the country. So that's how he's trying to spin it. That like, I'm not an angry guy necessarily. I'm just very angry with the state of the country and these policies that I

think are wrong and I want to fix it. The Liberals are attacking me for saying Canada is broken, but there's nothing unpatriotic about wanting your country to be better. You know, that it's okay to point out failings, we want to make it better, and that's actually an act of patriotism in itself. So I think that's part of what he's trying to do to distinguish himself from Carney, saying that Carney is essentially a continuation of Trudeau, although he's really not in many respects. There's been huge changes in the last 10 days that Carney's been the prime minister.

But I am a total break from the past. Paul Yev is someone who will not repeat some of the things that we've seen under Justin Trudeau, and the distinction there is very clear. And so I think that's why he's putting that sort of message out there now. Trump himself has said that he doesn't think Poliev is a mega guy. Well, I think his biggest problem is he's not a mega guy, you know? He's really not. He's not a Trump guy at all. I don't like what he's saying about me. It's just not positive about me. He also said that he'd rather deal with a liberal.

The conservative that's running is stupidly no friend of mine. I don't know him, but he said negative things. So when he says negative things, I couldn't care less. I think it's easier to deal actually with a liberal. And maybe they're going to win, but I don't really care. It doesn't matter to me at all. How are people in the conservative camp thinking about what Trump said? Do they think it's a good thing or is this like a good old case of like a reverse endorsement that people will just see through, right? Well there's two things going on there. First of all, the conservatives are thrilled that

he said that because they really think that that can be interpreted as an endorsement of Carney and that that will take some of the heat off of them. Although Trump did not endorse Carney, he just said he might prefer to deal with a liberal. The conservatives are spinning it to say that the liberals have been weak and Trump likes weak and Trump will pounce on the liberals if they're re-elected and they'll do harm to the country. But there's also the possibility that some of his own voters might not like that, that they actually, you know, some of his own voters might want Poliev to be aligned with Trump. We heard Alberta Premier Daniel Smith saying that there will be positive relations between

the two countries if Poliev is elected because they do have similar views on these issues and that there might be a more harmonious take on bilateral relations. But also there's a possibility that Trump's comments could backfire for Polio because yes Canadians are angry with the United States right now, many people in the US certainly Trump, but Canadians I think are also open to a deal to put an end to this trade war. So I think that you know it's not necessarily a bad thing that Trump thinks he can get along with the liberals because that could bring this whole thing to an end. Right. Or let me just put another option out there

that Trump doesn't think that at all, that he's just saying that Poliev is no friend of his because he thinks that this country is going to do the opposite of what he thinks. That's right. Right? Yeah. Because he's very keenly aware that his actions have scrambled

the electoral equation in this country. Donald Trump has changed everything with Canadian politics in a very short period of time. He knows that he has given the liberals a huge boost that it's boyed their election chances. And so now I think he's trying to throw out this comment, maybe take the window to their sales a little bit, right? So yeah, there could be some reverse psychology going on there. So given everything that we have talked about today, How would you defy the campaign that the conservatives are running right now? You know, which group are they leaning into more? Or are they trying

to walk this very tight line? And how? It's a very, very delicate balance because they have to keep that core group of their party happy. The people that like Trump to some degree. They certainly like Trump when it comes to cutting government, cutting taxes. They like Trump on immigration. They like Trump on diversity, equity and inclusion. They like all his policies on that. But they also the conservatives have to appeal to a larger audience, a larger group of people who are absolutely diametrically opposed to Trump and hate everything

about him. So it's very, very difficult for Poliev moving forward. I would say the major thing is they have run a campaign on the cost of living and inflation for the last two years and they have to throw that playbook out, at least in part, and pivot to deal with the American threat. I think Canadians do want to hear in more detail how Poliev would push back against Trump and save the country from annexation and a possible takeover. And he is uncomfortable being extremely vocal about that topic. They don't want that to

be the focal point of their campaign because they know it's not exactly the strongest issue for them and they know that if they say absolutely negative things about Trump, it might push some of their voters to the People's Party of Canada. And that's how they lost some seats last time. There was that split in the vote. Some of the more right wing, more solidly far right types went for the People's Party. So Paulia has got to keep those people in the big blue tent because he needs them to win. So you're going to hear less talk of Trump, I think, and more talk of why it is not time

for another liberal government, why they don't deserve a fourth term, why we've been through a decade of darkness. Let's not do it again. Right. I think that is what he will be focusing on. But tricky, tricky, right? To keep that base when the NDP, the support for the NDP is collapsing and we're seeing a lot of the support for the bloc collapsing in Quebec.

That's right. Two is round, right? When you have a big swath of the country kind of moving to the center, it becomes harder to keep the base happy. Is that fair? The conservatives win when the NDP is strong. When the liberal and NDP vote are both competing for one another, when they're both in a good position, the conservatives can come up the middle.

We saw that in Ontario in the most recent provincial election. The liberals and the NDP were both, you know, 20, 25, 30 points. That's great news for Doug Ford and the PCs because they can win a huge majority government because there's a splinter of the vote on the left and center and so the conservatives right now are looking at those NDP numbers and going Uh-oh, this is not good because the NDP are what 10% in our CBC poll tracker That spells huge trouble for the conservatives because that means the liberals are going to pounce on some of the urban seats and suburban seats. And even in places where the NDP wasn't particularly strong, if there's like a five or six point dip, and that goes straight to the Liberals, that gives them a healthy cushion in writings where it was much more competitive last time with the Conservatives.

So the Conservative campaign is all about needing a strong NDP in the rest of Canada and a strong Black-Quebecois. So a campaign that's squarely focused on Conservatives while ignoring moderates won't work when the NDP is in the position they're in right now. Okay, JP, I think that's a good place for us to leave it today. But we'll be in touch. Thank you so much. Thanks, Jamie. All right. That is all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.