Front Burner - Poilievre tries to turn the page

Episode Date: November 13, 2025

The decisions of one Conservative MP to cross the floor, and another to resign have sparked a wider conversation about whether Pierre Poilievre should remain leader of the party.Those moves also forced the Conservatives into their version of damage control, given the stories of intense pressure campaigns and disputed accounts of office screaming sessions.Two conservatives joined host Jayme Poisson with their take on how Poilievre and his supporters are managing this latest crisis.Fred DeLorey is the chair of Northstar Public Affairs. He was also former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole’s national campaign director in 2021. Kate Harrison is the vice-chair for Summa Strategies, a public affairs firm that specializes in government relations.For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

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Join us. Because kids these days, we need you more than ever. Donate at GeoFoundation.com. This is a CBC podcast. Hey, everybody, it's Jamie. On Monday, we did an episode about the decisions made by two conservative MPs that blew up in Pierre Pauliev's lap, smoking the party's plans to hammer the new liberal budget, and forcing the conservatives into their version of damage control.

Well, it's now been a week since Matt Jenneru said that he would resign and Chris Dantremont, joined the liberals. But the flames have not been put out. There remain stories of intense pressure campaigns, accounts of office screaming sessions, and analysis that questions how badly all of this has wounded Polyeb's political future. So today, we wanted to bring on two conservatives to have a conversation about how Polyev and his supporters have been managing this latest crisis, how other conservatives, how other conservatives are thinking about all of this and whether they think he remains the right guy to

lead the party. Fred DeLorey is the chair of North Star Public Affairs. He was also former conservative leader, Aaron O'Toole's National Campaign Director in 2021. And Kate Harrison is the vice chair for Summa Strategies, a public affairs firm that specializes in government relations. Hello to you both. Thank you so much for coming on to the show. Hey, Jamie. Great to be here. Yeah, looking forward to the chat. Me too. Okay, so I know, as I mentioned, we saw the two major announcements last week, the resignation from politics of conservative Edmonton area MP, Matt Jenneroo.

The Edmonton MP says he told the party he was resigning his seat, writing in a statement. It was not an easy decision, but it is, I believe, the right one. And then the floor crossing of Nova Scotia MP, Christentremont to the Liberals. Chris's decision to join the government caucus at this crucial moment for our country is exceptionally valuable and important. There are rumors that Jenneroo was subject to an intense pressure campaign, but I think at this time, we have a lot more tangible information around what happened with Dantraman. So if you guys don't mind, I would like to focus on him with you off the top here. John Tremont has said that the moment that really pushed him over the edge was being confronted by Conservative House leader Andrew Shear

and party whip Chris Workington in his office after news broke that he was considering crossing the floor according to him. They barged in, pushed open the door, almost knocking over his assistance and called him a snake. The party has a different account of this. They say that they acted very calmly and in a measured way. But Kate, do you think that there was some immediate mishandling of the situation here. I think it is super fair to say that emotions are high in a situation

like that. Politics is a team sport and when you have a member of the team depart and depart on such a critical day like budget day in Ottawa, I can appreciate that things would have been very tense. That would have been a really difficult conversation. I would note to your point, Jamie, that the account of what occurred in the words of Mr. Dantramal and the words of the party do very significantly. There's a big gap in Delta there. I had the leader or the house leader and the whip barge

into my office, you know, push my assistant aside. Push. Rush in. Push. Take the door and just push it wide open. To sit there and, you know, tell me how much of a snake I really was.

The party sent out a detailed blow-by-blow of Shear and Warkinton's version of events. Disputing Dantramas' description of events. Disputing Don Tramon's description of the meeting, saying they entered the office calmly and spoke in a measured voice. So perhaps the truth is somewhere in the middle. I do think that there was likely a lot of hurt feelings. Again, because to your point, this really trampled on the opposition's ability to have a cogent message coming out of the budget. And so we can have a debate about Mr. Don Tramon's motivations for maybe doing this and whether or not those are valid. But I think for conservatives right now, it's actually less.

about that and it's more about timing. It really had a big impact on conservatives and the and Polyev's ability to get out and have a sound criticism of a budget that failed to meet the expectations of a lot of Canadians and one that I think the liberals may not be particularly proud to stand behind because it seems to me that they much rather be talking about this caucus and house drama than the defending key principles put forward in that budget. Fred, do you want to come in here. How damaging or not damaging, I guess, do you think it is to have that kind of story out in the public for voters to consume, but also for other conservative MPs to consume? Well, anytime there's a floor crossing, it's bad for your party. There's no other way around it.

You're losing someone who's decided to leave. But just to back up to the point about, you know, Andrew and Chris going and Warkington going to Don Tramont's office and Donstramon saying that's what pushed him over. He was out immediately after. you're saying, I'm thinking of crossing to the Liberal Party once I see their budget. Like, there's no putting that back in. You're out. You're done. And the House Leader and Whip went to talk to him.

I don't know why they went to talk to them. I'm not sure what they were hoping to accomplish. Because in my experience, when you go out that far, you've already decided. You're just really miscommunicating it and communicating it early. And I would just add really quickly there, you know, Chris Entrama, I don't think is somebody that a lot of conservatives would say was content. for a while, and this took everybody by surprise. But he's also somebody that has been in elected politics for a quarter of a century.

So he would know very well that the moment you publicly muse about crossing to join the governing party, what the consequence of that action is. So again, I think Fred is bang on. This is not the reaction from the conservative House leader and whip was quite predictable. And I think that Mr. Dantraman probably knew what to expect. when he did that on budget day in particular. So I guess whether or not Andrew Shear and Chris Workington could have persuaded him to stay or not, aside, I take your point and you think there's no way he was already out the door. I do want to ask you both about the response that we saw after the flirt car.

crossing from the Conservative Party, many MPs in the party. I think it is fair to say that it was very much on the offense. Some have said that he betrayed his voters. BC Conservative MP Mark Dalton posted on Tuesday that Dantraman would not have crossed over if he had won the deputy speaker position and that extra 51K that went with it. And actually in response to Dachman's account of what happened in his office, the party released a statement that read in part, Chris Dantraman. who established himself as a liar after willfully deceiving his voters, friends, and colleagues because he was upset, he didn't get his coveted speaker, deputy speaker role, is now spinning more lies after crossing the floor. Fred, is this hard clapback mode the right strategy here, you think?

It's hard to put strategy in place when emotions are so high. When you have someone, you know, leave the family, which is essentially what Don Thurlmont did. And Kate pointed out he has been an elected conservative for a quarter of a century. He was a staffer, conservative staffer before that. I've known him for almost 30 years. He's someone that I've spent a fair bit of time with, about dinner with, a lot of conversations with. And it's hard. It's hurtful when someone leaves the family.

They are leaving it. They are, you know, I think he even struggled at times. If you look at the statement he put out, he said he's joining the government caucus. He didn't even use the L word because it's probably a bit hard for him to do. I'm a, like Dr. Montre, I'm a Nova Scotian and involved in politics there. And two provincial liberals crossed to the PC government of Tim Houston in the last year and a half. And of course, jumping for joy when that happens and welcome these great legislators into the fold. So it goes both ways.

Obviously, people do get wound up and probably go over the top when it happens, but it's hard to control. But do you think that that's the moment. where you need cooler heads to prevail. And when you need really good political strategy, right? It's kind of when the rubber hits the road, right? I don't know if people really keep score for those things, though, right? Like, this is the thing that'll move on. People will know he crossed.

You know, always cooler head is something I'm always a big fan of. But when you lash out, like, whatever party is that loses a member, you do it for a few days, you blow off the steam and then you move on. If you say nothing, then what are you saying, too? You know, sometimes it's best to fill the airwaves with something, even if it may not be the, you know, the most calm type of message. So we did see reporting last week that there was somewhere between 10 and 15 MPs who were very frustrated with Polyev and his senior leadership. team. And do you have a sense a week out of whether this response from the party to last week's

events has done anything to quell those frustrations or is it possible that it has made those frustrations worse? It's important to keep in mind that Polyev is governing the largest caucus not to form government. I think it's important to keep in mind, too, that the last election was incredibly disappointing to caucus and to conservatives across the country. And obviously, the leader having lost his own seat, really left the conservatives at a disadvantage and put the opposition back on its heels at a time where they had been leading on a number of issues and in the polls for quite a period of time. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of those numbers are inflated. I remember, you know, when Carney gave his budget speech on the 22nd of

October, before the delivery of the budget we were hearing about floor crossing at that time, it never materialized. Caucus will always have folks that are disgruntled and disappointed, and that is not unique to the conservatives. But I think that the dynamic the conservatives are dealing with right now is a different one that what you've seen in the past from the conservative party in particular, it's a larger caucus. We were so close to winning that last election.

You're seeing some of that frustration a little bit. I think we might be overstating. how that's manifesting in terms of floor crossing and people genuinely looking to the party for a real change in direction or leadership. Right. But even if it's overstated, they only need like two, right, to form a majority government. So, I mean, it is pretty high stakes, just to state the obvious, I guess. Fred, I just wonder if I could get your thoughts on this. Like, do you think the response quelled those grumblings in the, or, frustrations in the Conservative Party, or do you think it's possible that it actually

have made people have, like, more second thoughts? You know, these reports that Jeteru was pressured, and I should point out, that he says coercion didn't play a role in his decision to resign, but are MPs going to think that the office has some sort of file on them and that they're willing to blackmail them or something? these rumors, they're kind of flying around, right? I had a hard time when people were telling me in the last few weeks that, you know, these rumors of floor crossing, trying to think of who it was. I know, Don Tramont had, you know, as Kate mentioned, had known issues at times,

but I just didn't think it would happen with him. So it doesn't mean any of the other ones aren't, you know, likely to go. It just, to me, 15 that are frustrated, that's actually a small number when you consider there's 144. They don't even have close to enough to trigger a vote on the leadership review internally in caucus. And we don't even know who they are. They're not out there. They don't seem organized. And if you're frustrated, I do think there's opportunity from this for Pauliev. He's got to understand he does have issues internally with the caucus, with maybe a small number. Two, you're right, if two goes, that's a majority government for the liberals and the game

changes drastically. So I think he needs to figure out where exactly those weak points are and try to find ways to communicate with them to, um, you know, get things to smooth over. But again, I don't, you know, I don't get a sense anyone who's crossing here, um, being frustrated with the leader and quitting the party are two very different things. Kids these days, people say we have so much more. Smartphones, video games, treats, and busy schedules. But more isn't always better.

Because kids these days, we also have more health challenges than ever before. More mental health issues. More need for life-saving surgeries. And more complex needs. Chio has a plan to transform pediatric care for kids like me. Join us. Because kids these days, we need you more than ever. Donate at GeoFoundation.com.

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of of of you know negativity could you know is that what's happening in the party in your estimation kate i'd be very curious to hear your your response here like is it more like a frat house than a political party yeah i struggle with that characterization because usually, firstly, you have to consider the timing of the commentary. And obviously, Mr. Dantrema is making these observations now that he has exited the party. So I do struggle both with kind of the motivation. But in terms of being a serious political party, it's really difficult to look at the last 10 years and not see that the conservatives are gaining ground, which is not what an unsurious political party does. They had more voters come to them in the last election than ever

before, as I mentioned, largest caucus to be elected without forming a government, still enjoying a healthy amount of public opinion support in the polls. So that is not the sign of a political party in decline. This was the first time I had heard somebody refer to them as a, like a frat house, but certainly Dr. Ma said some stuff that we have heard many people say. over the course of the election and his aftermath, for example, about Polyev's tone, that not all voters, but many voters find it too angry, too divisive, too trumpy. And Don Tremont said that while Shear was interim leader of the party in the summer, while Pollyev was looking to regain his seat in Alberta, that the tone never changed,

and that the party has not learned from losing three elections. And Fred, do you think that the party is not learning this tone lesson? well i'm not sure what the tone lesson is there i mean there's a lot there's been criticism of polyev's tone and he does have negatives that are out there um and you know they are at a high level there's no denying that um i think it's more of some of his messaging and who he's communicating with and how um he is very aggressive at getting um you know people refer to it as the base of the party i wouldn't say it's the base but a big part of the conservative coalition um that is off putting to others.

And I, there is that balance. I think he should be trying to find and how do you keep those people fired up? Those are the people that feel left behind. They're angry at government. And when he talks to them in an angry voice, it's because they are angry themselves. They are struggling with affordability.

They're struggling, struggling with housing costs. So he's leading a movement there, but it does make it difficult with an other part of the electorate that you need to win over. So finding that balance is very, very hard. And I think he has opportunity to do it.

Sorry, I don't want to interrupt you. I just want to ask you, like, I was at an event with Pollyav. Recently, he was talking to a lot of young people. I have never heard anybody say that they don't like how he talks passionately about housing or how he feels angry about. I've never heard anybody say that they don't like it. What I have heard people say is they didn't like how he talked to that reporter when he was munching on an apple. What does that mean? Well, appealing to people's more emotional levels, I would guess.

I mean, certainly you tap very strong ideological language quite frequently. Like what? I think that there's a difference between those two things. Do you think that he's learned some lessons there? I will note, I don't want to drop this on you, but he was just in a press conference right now, and he was asked whether he's reflecting on his leadership style. And he's saying, no, we are. My plan is to continue to lead to be the only leader in the country that's fighting for an affordable Canada where our people who work hard.

And then he steered his comments back to the budget. Right. And I would say that's the right approach. I think that's the right thing to say. I'm not saying it's the right thing to do. It's the right thing to say you can't as a strong leader as someone trying to lead a movement, say, you're right. I need to reflect on my leadership style and change it. Because then you've just, you've really alienated those people that really believe in you.

And there's a lot of those people that do. Going back to the Apple thing, you know, that did turn a lot of people off. It also fired up a lot of people who thought, this guy's a fighter for me. He's cool. He's not going to put up with ridiculous questions. And there's those people who feel left behind and out of the system that that appealed greatly to. There is a side of that that works. And I would just add to that, I don't think Pollyev is in a competition for miscongeniality, right?

his job is to draw contrast with the current government. And so sometimes that discipline and focus and criticism is characterized as, you know, mean or cold or aloof. But I think that the real key there is the contrast from the current government and drawing enough separation for Canadians, because if they are given an option between two versions of the same party, they're going to likely continue to vote liberal. And I would say, too, Doug Ford in 2018 was by far the most divisive option that party members could have chosen to select and run in the provincial election campaign compared to the other candidates on offer, Christine Elliott, Caroline Mulroney. He was by far the most polarizing choice. He has now led three successful majority governments

at the Ontario provincial level. So I think that you can have a clear, value proposition and definition put forward to voters about who you are, maybe a lot of preconceived notions, it doesn't mean that they're not going to really consider electing you, particularly in a dynamic where the government isn't meaning their promises and where affordability is at top concern. Before we came into this conversation, I was reading a piece by Abacus had David Coletto, who I'm sure you both know, who is a regular guest on this show. And he was making many of the same points that you are both making here, that Polly of Support is unprecedented in modern day conservative politics. But he goes on to say that, quote, politics is not a family reunion. Elections are usually won by persuading those outside your tribe. And among conservative, non-conservative voters, the data, as we have been saying, tells a very different story. So just for example, for people, people listening. Only 3% of those who don't currently support the conservatives feel very positively

about Polyev. There are people in the middle there. And then I think very importantly, 52% say they have a very negative impression of him. And is that something that you think he can turn around because it seems like you got to get some of those people if you want to be the prime minister, right? There's two ways that goes. There's the one way where he does have. have to, uh, adapt and try to find a way the balance to keep your base fired up and alleviate fears of the, of the, of a chunk of the electorate. The other side of it is just understand timings will change. Whenever the next election is, we do not know what the actual issue set will be then. Um, last one was very unique. We had Trump. We had elbows up. We had Mark Carney

looked like the man for the job. If there's an election in eight months a year, is that the same ballot question. I would be advising him to find a way to find that balance, to get that, you know, keep what you have, but try to grow into the middle where you can by alleviating the fears of whatever the electorate is. And that takes a deep dive research project to understand where the people really are and what the concerns are and then finding ways to subtly address them. Harper did this in 2005, right? He came out as one of his top issues was on health care in the 2005-6 campaign. When we lost and because people thought we were going to cut health care.

So he went in there and he removed that weapon immediately. And it, and, you know, he went on to be Canada's sixth longest serving prime minister. I would put this question to either of you. Do you think that he can do that? And do you think that there's a will by him and from the people around him to do that? I think he can. He needs to look at the issues that are of critical importance to parts of the electorate that we lost in the last campaign. And I think in particular, the concerns

of middle-aged and older male Canadians, the government has been talking a lot about the economic change that is going to be required for this country that is going to be felt overwhelmingly by older Canadians who might not have access to some of this reskilling or new opportunities. And so I think there's an opportunity there for the conservatives to really zero in on that particular demographic and talk about policies and a political home for those voters. He also needs to make sure that he's doubling down on the gains that were made with young people in the last election. And you mentioned housing, Jamie. I think if the election, whenever it's held is about housing, you'll see the conservatives likely form government. One final question for you

both. I know we've been polling at this the entire conversation, but I think it would be helpful to end this by asking you both directly. Most people I've talked to are saying at this moment, they believe that Pollyov will make it through the leadership review in January that he will remain the leader. But I think it's worth asking you both just straight. I know it's something we've been pulling at throughout this conversation, but do you think that he is the right person to take this party forward? I think the thing to remember about the convention is that it's delegated. So this is, you know, a relatively controlled environment. for folks to have a say in the future of the party and the leadership question more specifically.

I think, again, my answer in this is rooted in data. And so you look at how Polyev polls compared to other conservatives in the movement, compared to previous leaders of the movement when they had unsuccessful election campaigns, where conservatives are polling right now in terms of public opinion. This is not a sign to shake things up. We're in a minority government, the next election. in my view is likely sooner than it is further away. None of that is a cocktail for changing things up at the leadership. I look back at Stephen Harper, we lost in 04. There was talks in the summer of 05 of maybe not going again,

and I'm grateful he did, didn't think we all are. Andrew Shearer in 2019 when he lost, I advocated then that he should go again. He ultimately decided not to. Obviously, I was Arrow Tools campaign manager. I thought he should have gone a second time. But I think the experience you get, and if you can learn from it, and I think that's what remains to be seen, will he learn from it, will he get better? Will he get sharper? And will he, you know, I don't want to say smooth down the edges, but find that right path to victory. I think he's best place to do that than anyone else that would come into this new job, trying to rebuild what at the time could become a fractured party if our leader leaves. You know, the coalition of conservatives is it's broad across this country. There's many different types of conservatives. And it's a very challenging movement to keep together. And I do think he is well-placed to do that.

And again, I do hope he finds that path to victory. Okay. Thank you both for this. Really appreciate it. Thank you. Thank you. For more CBC podcasts, go to cBC.ca.ca slash podcasts.