Front Burner - Politics! India-Canada dispute escalates, Liberal caucus revolt

Episode Date: October 16, 2024

The Thanksgiving long weekend ended with a bombshell from the RCMP and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau: Accusations that agents from the Indian government are linked to, and helped orchestrate criminal acts in Canada. These allegations include acts like murder and extortion against members of the country’s Sikh community.It’s the latest development in an ongoing row between Canada and India that started last year. Now as diplomats are expelled from both countries, the fallout has just begun.Meanwhile, there is a growing movement within the federal Liberal caucus to oust Trudeau as leader, involving a secret document being passed around. Catherine Cullen, CBC senior parliamentary reporter and host of CBC Radio’s The House, joins us to talk about how everything is playing out on Parliament Hill and beyond. For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Jamie Poisson. So it was an incredibly eventful Thanksgiving weekend in Ottawa. First of all, this happened. It is obvious that the government of India made a fundamental error in thinking that they could engage in supporting criminal activity against Canadians here on Canadian soil whether it be murders or

extortion or other violent acts is absolutely unacceptable for any country, any democracy that upholds the rule of law. The Prime Minister and the RCMP have come out and said there's credible evidence linking Indian government officials to a bunch of crimes on Canadian soil. We're talking extortions, homicides targeted at members of the Sikh community. The allegations suggest a pretty stunning breadth and depth. Six Indian diplomats, including India's high commissioner, were expelled from Canada. And this was all happening while there was talk of a revolt in the Federal Liberal Caucus, a growing movement from within to oust Trudeau as leader. So obviously, we've got to talk about all of this. My colleague

Catherine Cullen is here. She's a senior parliamentary reporter and host of CBC Radio's The House. Catherine, hi. Hey, Jamie. So first, I want to get into these accusations against Indian government officials. The RCMP mentioned criminal activity ranging from extortion to murder. Here's the prime minister talking about the Indian government's involvement. The RCMP chose to come out today and disrupt the pattern of Indian diplomats collecting through questionable and illegal means information on Canadian citizens that were then fed to criminal organizations that would then take violent actions from extortion to murder against Canadians. Can you just bring us up to speed here with what the investigation has found so far?

I think the real takeaway here, you know, what makes this moment different than the previous iterations of having a conversation about this is this real and present danger to public safety. The police mentioned that there have been well over a dozen what are called duty to warn notices. So that's the police telling people, hey, your life might be in jeopardy because of threats we are aware of. I mean, you heard it, murder, extortion. There's really a variety of police investigations that are going on here. And Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc talked about this as being something that's playing out in multiple cities,

also in smaller communities as well. And the shocking thing here is that the Canadian government believes that a piece of this puzzle, what is leading to this violence or a piece of the machine, I guess we could say, is Indian diplomats. That at a minimum, they're alleged to have been gathering information that was used to fuel some of these threats, these acts of violence. That's the allegation. Canada fully accepts and respects the sovereignty and the territorial integrity of India, we expect India to do the same. In this case, they did not.

And I think it's really worth noting the language that the prime minister is using. He's not saying this is alleged or it's possible. He's very direct in saying that this is wrongdoing, and that's despite strong denials from Indian officials. Right. And just to be clear here, the allegation here is that the targets of this violence, like these imminent threats, they're members of the Canadian Sikh community, including members of the pro-Khalistani movement. That's, of course, an independent Sikh state. Yeah, the primary targets, yes.

Yeah. Okay. So we know that the event that sparked all of this was the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijar, the Canadian sick leader, last year in Surrey. And, of course, you will remember it was about a year ago now that the prime minister stood up in the House of Commons and suggested what he called at the time... Credible allegations of a potential link between agents of the government of India and the killing of a Canadian citizen, Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Is it fair for me to say here that what we are seeing and what we saw from the presser on Monday was, you know, far more breadth and depth, like allegations that this goes much deeper, much wider, much broader. That's it. And I think you, I mean, you say breadth and depth, right? We talked about the comments a moment ago that the prime minister is making. That day when he stood up in the House

of Commons, he was really talking about this in terms of credible allegations. And now he's really sort of cutting to the chase and saying this is happening. But also the this has changed. We've gone from focusing on one individual to talking about multiple homicides, talking about these instances of extortion and violence. And clearly part of the reason that the RCMP were taking this extraordinary step of holding a news conference when there are ongoing criminal cases on Thanksgiving Monday, all of this, like really unusual, right? It sends up a big flare that there's something dramatic happening here is because there is this threat. Despite law enforcement's action, the harm has continued, posing a serious threat to our public safety.

Now officials, the public safety minister, the head of the RCMP, they are certainly trying to offer assurances that they are monitoring this, that they are doing their best to protect people at the heart of this. They're also encouraging them to come forward if they are being harassed. But clearly, this is an attempt to shine a bit of sunlight on what is obviously a very troubling situation, so much so that they took this extraordinary step of going public. The RCMP has obtained evidence that demonstrates four very serious issues. One, violent extremists impacting both countries. Two, links tying agents of the government of India to homicides and violent acts. Three, the use of organized crime to create perception of unsafe environment

targeting the South Asian community in Canada. And the fourth, interference in democratic processes. When they say homicides, did they name the homicides? Do we know exactly what we're talking about right now? No, they've been very careful in terms of the language around this. Obviously, we understand that part of the bigger picture here is the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar. We have also reported that there have been arrests in the Nijjar killing and that those individuals were linked to a couple of other

shootings that happened in Canada. So we believe that to be part of the picture, but the RCMP is not offering that kind of information. Catherine, when we're talking about agents of the Indian government being involved here, do we have any sense of like how high up that goes? that goes? We don't really know. I mean, it's certainly not something that is being discussed publicly at this point. The Washington Post does have some reporting suggesting it goes very high. We can't say at this point. The connection to the Indian government, Canada is clearly making that. This obviously worsens the diplomatic row between Canada and India, which wasn't going so great over the last year. Canada has had to cease all services at its consulates in Bengaluru, Chandigarh and Mumbai. Only the High Commission in New Delhi remains operational. India's foreign minister says...

The number of people with organized crime links from Punjab have been made welcome in Canada. I think there is the beginning of an understanding that they can't bluster their way through this. Canada's prime minister says India's initial defensiveness against Canada appears to be moderating. And there is an openness to collaborating in a way that perhaps they... So Canada, as I mentioned in the intro, expelled six diplomats. India responded by calling these allegations preposterous and expelling six of our diplomats. India responded by calling these allegations preposterous and expelling six of our diplomats. And just tell me more about how the Indian government has responded here. Yeah, it was interesting because India actually tried to get out in front of this, right? They

were the first ones to make this announcement that their diplomats were coming back and they were suggesting, well, this is a public safety issue, our diplomats aren't safe, Canada is so terrible. It's clear that these allegations, these latest allegations, have outraged the Indian government. India slams Canada. In fact, very strong language uses in the response. The diplomatic dispute has been the top story on TV in India for the last 24 hours. The accusation that the Modi government is linked to the murder of a Canadian Sikh activist last year has been refuted by India. They put out a statement suggesting that the reason that the prime minister is doing this

is for his own political benefit. I'm going to read you a little bit of the statement in which they say the government of India strongly rejects these preposterous imputations and ascribes them to the political agenda of the Trudeau government that is centered around vote bank politics. They say there's no evidence there. There's been a deliberate strategy of smearing India for political gains.

Now, I think it's important to contrast that with what's happening in Canada, which is this is not just a political allegation that's being made, right? We have law enforcement involved. We have diplomats involved. And Canadian officials have said time and time again, they are presenting Indian officials with some very clear evidence of the allegations they're making, that they're gaining new information that was making these links clear. India, though, just not accepting that at all and basically, in a manner of speaking, telling the Canadian government to take a hike. Yeah. Where do you think things could go from here? So, of course, last year, when Trudeau talked about the links between the Indian government and the killing of Nijjar,

diplomats weren't just withdrawn, but India also suspended visa services for Canadian citizens. And are we anticipating the same this time or other retaliatory measures? I think Canadian officials certainly believe it's a very real possibility. There's a sort of holding the collective breath right now to see how India responds. As you point out last time, there was pushback. So why would there not be pushback again? Melanie Jolie, the foreign affairs minister here in Canada, did say that if Canada were to consider pushback of its own, she was asked by reporters, well, you know, could sanctions against India be on the table?

She said, we'll listen. For the rest, we'll continue to push India to make sure that they cooperate. We'll continue to engage with our Five Eyes partners. We'll continue to engage with also all their G7 partners. But she did finish that thought from the question from a reporter saying, And everything is on the table. And you can see that some Indian media are picking that up and really interpreting it as a threat, a threat against India that perhaps Canada would consider any number of measures to turn up the temperature

on all of that. It's important to say that's not really necessarily something Canada wants right now. There's a lot of money that flows between these two countries. We're talking about upwards of $8 billion a year. The Canadian government, I really don't think, is seeking a bigger fight here. There's been no evidence of that. At the same time, they can't just allow something like extrajudicial killings to be ignored, even if the cost is potentially both financial and also a real strain on the people of your country, right? A lot of people go back and forth between Canada and India. And if there were more pressure on visa services, if there was a suspension again, you know, that has real impacts in people's lives. They can't go back to India for be it a wedding, a funeral, you know, real on top of business, like real material ways that it affects people's lives. attempt on the life of a Sikh nationalist in New York and allegations that the Indian

government was also behind that, that it's part of this larger international web. In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization. Empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of

people and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household income? That's not a typo, 50%. That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. So, Catherine, I am going to pivot to the second half of this conversation. What was certainly shaping up last week to be a bit of a mutiny of liberal MPs trying to take out their leader. And at the presser that was about the India allegations, Trudeau was actually asked about this. And here is how he responded. The safety of Canadians is the number one thing that any government, that any parliamentarians should be preoccupied with. And that is exactly what we're focused on. There will be time to talk about internal party intrigue at another moment. But right now, this government and indeed all

parliamentarians should be focused on standing up for Canada's sovereignty, standing against interference and looking to be there to support Canadians in this difficult moment. It sounds a little bit like he's shaming the members of his party that want to push him to step down as leader. And it's similar to what Trade Minister Mary Ng said on Friday when she was asked about it in Hawaii. Canadians expect us to be focusing on Canadians and doing this work. And I know my colleagues. I know that that is top of mind. You know, I think that the conversations that we have in caucus, we remain in caucus. And so what do you make of this response, this strategy from Trudeau and his inner circle?

I'm going to say strategy is a big word there, Jamie. I don't think this is the sum total of the strategy to respond to it. But it is sort of the first blush, right? It is the first pushback that we're seeing. I do not think that this is going to go over well at all with the people who are at the heart of this revolt, right? It is the first pushback that we're seeing. I do not think that this is going to go over well at all with the people who are at the heart of this revolt, right? This sense of like, well, we're concerned, you know, I'm very disappointed in you and we're concerned with bigger things. The liberals who are feeling uncomfortable right now, and I'm not trying to

suggest that like all of caucus by any stretch is ready to be part of a revolt. But I think I can very comfortably say that there is significant discomfort writ large in the Liberal caucus about how things are going right now for the party. It's just a question of how far people are willing to go to address it and what they think the best path forward is. But this sense of like, well, you should be paying attention to more important things. I don't really think that's going to fly. It's not going to do much to smooth over those tensions. But again, which I suppose to them is winning the next election. But how did this latest iteration of like a mutiny in a way develop? How did it start? I just want to jump back to what you said there about winning the next election.

And what I think having had conversations with a lot of Liberal MPs, what they would say is they're responding. It's not just winning the next election, right? It is like trying to respond to how Canadians are feeling right now, which is that they don't feel that their government is connecting with what they need. So I think they would frame it as being a bit of a higher purpose than just their own political victory. Sure. I think people can kind of make up their own minds about where they land on that. How this all started, you know, I think there was, it's been a real sea of emotions for the Liberal Party. I mean, you can go all the way back to spring and the Toronto St. Paul's loss.

But I think coming into the Liberal caucus retreat in Nanaimo, I was covering it. I talked to you while we were there, Jamie. And there was a bit of a sense of, I'd say, resignation at the time. Things were going great, but people were like, well, Prime Minister's staying is what it is. Let's come up with a plan. And in fact, there was really some optimism, I think, from some folks leaving that meeting that maybe there was a bit of a plan in the works. I think in the last few weeks in particular, let's say two or three weeks, the frustration has really started to boil over. And you can chalk it up to a bunch of things.

I mean, I think the fact that the liberals were frustrated that there wasn't a national campaign director, a new person to lead their election effort. Why weren't there these anti-peer polyev ads that they've been hearing about? Some MPs say to me for two years they've been waiting for these things. A big thing, I think, is also the polls. A couple of polls in the last couple of weeks that have suggested that the Liberals could come in third. Behind the MPP. the Liberals could come in third. Behind the MTP. Yeah.

So that's like a five alarm piece of news for some Liberal MPs. So they're starting to talk about different ways of addressing it. And it's clear that there are a lot of paths being discussed by some of the folks in Liberal caucus. One key inflection point that we've reported on in all of this is at Liberal caucus last week, Nova Scotia MP Cody Blois. He's chair of the Atlantic Caucus. So he's speaking about a meeting that's happened with all the Atlantic MPs. He's behind closed doors. The prime minister's out of town. It's his turn to bring the concerns of Atlantic Caucus forward. And according to sources, he stands up and he says, well, the Atlantic Caucus

has been engaged in what he describes as a difficult, frank and open conversation earlier that day. And that's kind of it, but it makes everybody's ears perk up. What do you mean a difficult, frank conversation? What's going on? And what we understand from that earlier meeting, the meeting Bliss is referring to, the Atlantic Caucus asked a PMO representative to get out of the room, someone who's normally in there. They also asked the interpreters to leave so they could have these conversations in total privacy. So we know there have been a lot of meetings, there have been a lot of

discussions. The question is, for these people who are feeling discontent, what are they going There's this document that's been going around, right, with signatures of MPs. There's been a lot of reporting on this. Tell me about this. It sounds like it's just a piece of paper. What is this? It's really fascinating because this whole thing, I got to say, is like quite shrouded in mystery. So in our reporting, we called it a pledge. Somebody who was involved said, oh, well, I think of it more as a pithy statement.

But essentially what it is is a laptop piece of paper. People are being asked to sign their names. And the spirit of what they are agreeing to, I'm told, is it is time for Justin Trudeau to go because that is what we are hearing at the doors. But you don't get a copy of the document. You sign it and it is taken away. The idea is that once they've achieved some kind of critical mass here, the prime minister will be presented with this, but not the actual signatures. He'll be presented with the essence of it, the statement, it's time for you to go, sir. be presented with the essence of it, the statement, it's time for you to go, sir,

this is what we're hearing at the doors, and told that, you know, be it two dozen, be it 50, X number of liberal MPs also feel this way, feel that it's time for you to go. So obviously, listen, that is a bit unorthodox. And you're probably asking yourself, well, why wouldn't you actually sign your name to it? I am asking that. Yeah. I'm also asking, like, how are they moving this laptop or paper around? Is it an intern? Are they using UPS? I have so many questions about this. Well, again, I will say, like, very shrouded in mystery. But, like, to make sense of why you wouldn't sign your name to this.

And, again, like, I am telling you what I am hearing from the people that I talk to. And one thing I hear almost universally is there's a real understanding that loyalty matters in politics. And people say, listen, I don't want to be the one to, you know, stick the proverbial knife in the prime minister here. Also, I will say like he, you know, he brought about a real renaissance in the liberal movement. He is the reason that many of these MPs were elected. So there is a certain amount of loyalty to him. And people will say genuinely, we don't want to embarrass him. Some of the people involved in this pledge say, you know, we didn't know this was going to be public. It isn't the way we should be proceeding. But they don't want to be labeled as disloyal, even though they think the right thing for the liberal movement, in their opinion, is this guy has got to go.

But they're nervous about the repercussions of being seen as the ones who push him out. So I think this is a way to sort of try to help a few people find a bit more courage is what advocates of this particular move would say. Critics of it, obviously people who are loyal to the prime minister, less than impressed by something where you're not even publicly putting your name to, you know, what is ultimately a pretty serious request for some pretty dramatic change. Yeah. Just, Catherine, I just want to say, some people listening, I've heard this refrain quite a bit in the last year now since the polls have really dropped for the liberals, this idea that Trudeau has earned the right to decide when he wants to go and they don't want to be, people don't want to be disloyal in his party. I think some people listening might hear that and just kind of want to pull their hair out a little bit, because what is the point of a political party, if not to do this kind of stuff? I don't know just what you think about that.

I mean, I guess what I would say is that the point of a political party is to bring forward a mandate, like a vision. I'm trying not to sound glib about this because it's really serious stuff, right? I mean, fundamentally, what's the point of a political party? It's to change the country in the direction that you think it ought to go. And Justin Trudeau, for all the fatigue Canadians are feeling with him, as suggested by the polls, has proved himself to ultimately be a pretty capable campaigner. And the case he's been making publicly is people aren't paying attention right now. And when push comes to shove, when they're really focused on what's going on here, I know I can make the case. I know I can change

minds. I guess his point is, you know, I still think I can win this fight. And I guess the other layer to it, Jamie, if we're being really frank, is like, do we know anyone else could do better? And that discussion is happening a hundred times a day, a thousand times a day in liberal circles. How many MPs do you think it would take? I mean, we're talking about this letter and all these meetings. I see today, you and I are talking Tuesday, that Sean Casey, longtime liberal MP from PEI, has come out on Power in Politics. My job has always been to project the voice of the people I represent in Ottawa. And the message that I've been getting loud and clear and more and more strongly as time goes by is that it's time for him to go. And I agree.

Is there a tipping point? Is there a number? I mean, there's no magic number, I will say. Jamie, there's 153 members of Liberal caucus. What we're hearing from people who are involved with the document is that there were a couple dozen signatures, that the number has perhaps grown since some of this became public, but they won't say quite by how much. And also, like, even the people signing it don't necessarily know who the other names are on it. So, like, we cannot fact check this. They're not handing the document over for us to peruse. I do think Sean Casey coming up publicly is interesting. It is a separate thing. He did tell our colleague David Cochran he hasn't seen the letter. He's sort of aware of these efforts, but he's not involved in them. Putting your name and your face out there, going on national television and saying my constituents think it is time for the prime minister to go and I agree with them is a pretty big thing. It strikes me that there is a short window for something like this. Like,

if you're going to start collecting signatures on a single air gap laptop, I don't know, or like a piece of paper. I just, I love, I really love these details. I'm not sure you have a very long time, right, before you need to do something because this is already public, right? You guys are digging around here trying to get details. So, yeah, so what are you and, you know, all of our colleagues in the Ottawa Bureau expecting might happen in the days ahead here? I think there are a couple of things to watch. It's not just about the famous pledge. Don't call it a pledge. You know, this mysterious document.

That's part of the story. There are, it's been made clear to me, there are multiple conversations and efforts and whatnot going on. So you may see other things become public. You know, Sean Casey is an example of that. There may be other people who find a way to make this point in different ways to sort of ramp up the pressure. But then there's the question of what happens on Monday and Wednesday. On Monday is when all the Liberal MPs come back to Ottawa. You know, they're all going to be having microphones pointed at them, folks saying, where do you stand? Are you part of this effort? What are your thoughts about MPs come back to Ottawa. You know, they're all going to be having microphones pointed at them, folks saying, where do you stand? Are you part of this effort? What are your thoughts about whether the prime minister should stay or not? And how they respond? Do they simply say this is an internal

caucus matter? Do they say, you know, he has my unequivocal support? I think that is going to give us a bit of a read of where things are and people are going to be paying very close attention to how people answer that question. And then Wednesday, they all go behind closed doors. And so some question of whether that is the moment that this all comes to a head. I can tell you often when there is a lot of scrutiny of a meeting like that, it doesn't always like we're like, oh, this is the appointed time. It's all going to get figured out behind closed doors. Sometimes it doesn't. But I think having them all back in the same city, whatever path forward the folks behind this document choose, and I'm told that that is still very much a live conversation. Next week, things are going to ramp up. We're also perhaps going to see more clearly what the prime minister's response is to this. How are he and his team trying to address this? response is to this. How are he and his team trying to address this? You know, are they trying to address some of the concerns at the heart of this? Or are they kind of like steamrolling over this and saying, as we said earlier in the show, you know, guys, we got a lot going on here. You

know, international diplomatic crisis, public safety issues at play, can't really engage with this right now. Okay. Well, sounds like we might be talking to you again pretty soon. Catherine, thank you, as always. Thank you, Jamie. All right. That's all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you tomorrow.