Front Burner - Politics! Poilievre’s win, election speculation

Episode Date: February 2, 2026

Pierre Poilievre easily won his leadership review in Calgary on the weekend with 87.4% of the vote. Today, senior Parliamentary bureau writer Aaron Wherry talks about the convention, whether it guarantees Poilievre’s future and what challenges still lie ahead for the Conservative leader. Plus, why a press conference at a grocery store prompted election speculation.For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

This is the sound of your legacy ERP. Silo data, broken processes, nothing works in harmony. With Workday, you get a next-gen ERP that unites your people in finance on a single AI platform so you can be future ready. Workday, the AI platform for HR and finance. This is a CBC podcast. We have the most amazing patriots, the most amazing people in this. party do. Thank God for the grassroots of the Conservative Party. Hey everybody, it's Jamie. So Pierre Pollyov easily won his leadership review in Calgary on the

weekend with 87.4% of the vote. Politicians. I love you too. So today, senior writer with the Parliamentary Bureau, Aaron Werry, is back to talk about the convention, whether it guarantees Polyev's future and what challenges still lie ahead for the conservative leader. Plus, we'll talk about what liberal leader Mark Carney's been up to, and whether a press conference at a grocery store could mean an election is on the horizon. Aaron, hi. Hey. So we had expected that Polyev would win this leadership review quite easily. But what did you make of the 87.4% figure? Yeah, as you say, it's not a shock. Getting over 84%, which is what Stephen Harper got in 2005, I think there's sort of a psychological victory to that for him. I think if the number had been, you know, in the 70s,

kind of anything under 80, there might have been questions about, oh, okay, how much support does he really have within his party? You know, 87.4 is a good, strong number that gets him over at its hurdle and that he can take some pride in and maybe try to build some momentum off of. And just to be clear here, who were the people that voted? How are we to make sense of that number and who is actually represented in that vote. Yeah, these are conservative party members. Each riding sends a certain number of delegates to the convention. Those delegates then vote over the weekend. So these are committed, enthusiastic members of the party, not just, you know, not even just conservative party, people who voted for the conservative party, but real committed party members.

The base. Yes. Before the vote, Pollyev made a speech to the crowd. Who's excited to be in Calgary in January? What were your big takeaways from that speech? So a few things I think. First, in terms of subject matter, it really felt like a speech that with a few exceptions, he could have delivered in 2024 or during the election campaign last year, last spring.

This was not a big deviation from the peer poly of we've come to know. Big focus on affordability. Families are struggling to do the math. Young people. are wondering if they'll ever have a job or a home. Worried parents are sitting at kitchen tables with empty fridges and empty bank accounts. And seniors worry that their savings might not last as long as their days. Big focus on making the argument that government spending and government regulation

and government tax policy are, you know, the things standing in the way are making things more difficult for Canadians. The government is literally the biggest item in a family budget today. It takes up more money than food clothing and shelter combined. The cost of government is driving up the cost of living. Taxes and record money printing deficits are inflating everything. It's no coincidence, therefore, that as the liberal government doubled the debt, housing costs, and food bank lineups doubled at the very same time. And building on that, the argument, I guess, that Mark Carney hasn't really delivered,

hasn't really changed the way things are going, has fallen short, I guess, of promises or expectations. It's, to a certain extent, a continuation of the argument that they made against Justin Trudeau that he hasn't delivered, so to speak. But since he became Prime Minister, has anything really changed in your life? Has the cost of living gone down? I know Mr. Carney likes to make big speeches abroad, as he forces Canadians to pay more here. It's clear. Mr. Carney talks big outside of Canada, but there's no action at home. Was there anything that felt different to you or sounded new?

Not in terms necessarily of subject matter, although we'll get to a couple things, I'm sure, that, you know, popped up in the speech that you wouldn't necessarily have heard before. But I think the tone was slightly different. You know, look, I don't want to overstate it. He still talked about. Cancel culture and identity politics divide Canadians. Separatist movements. You know, he made a joke off the top about... I love seeing so many conservatives in one place, but it must freak the liberals out enough to invoke the Emergencies Act. So this wasn't a completely different Pierre Polly of, but it was, I think, in terms of tone, it was a bit more self-contained, a bit more serious. And there was a real emphasis on trying to sound upbeat, on trying to

to sound enthusiastic and, you know, using the word hope, they really wanted that to be the word that everyone took away from that speech. And I think that is a slight change in the way he's presented himself compared to years previous. So hang on, have hope. Help is on the way. Hope. That's really the theme of this convention and this evening. Hope is on the way for our people as well. But hope is not just a comforting blanket. Hope is the knowledge that your work will fulfill your purpose, your why. Let's talk about separatism. So this was a topic that got a lot of headlines last week and probably have touched on the issue of separatism in the speech.

And we need to unite this country like never before because a house divided cannot stand. You know, here we go again. Liberals are in power. And just as night follows day, separatist movements are in resurgence back in Quebec and here in Alberta. These movements which have... Why do you think he took this more, you know, I would say empathetic attack towards separatists? Yeah, I think he had to address it somehow. The separatist issue, the movements that have taken hold in our own.

Alberta and the potential of a Parti-Khequeh-Qaeda government in Quebec by the end of this year, it had to be addressed. I think he took attack that was very similar in a way to the approach that Daniel Smith, Alberta Premier Daniel Smith has taken, which is to say, you know, rather than attack people who are thinking about separating from Canada, let's understand why they feel that way. Now, we can simply attack people who feel this way, or we can ask them why. Why in Alberta and Quebec? Why, particularly among young people in those provinces, have so many lost hope in Confederation? You can sort of see the logic of saying either politically or sort of just for the sake of national unity,

wanting to not go after people who are thinking that way. Pierre probably really leaned on the idea that this is the fault of the liberals being in power, particularly Justin Trudeau's government, that they have caused. to these separatist feelings to arise. He went so far as to say that these sorts of things don't happen when conservatives are in power. You know, it's incredible that when conservative, there's never been a referendum crisis or a national unity crisis when conservatives have been in power. It's an interesting coincidence, isn't it?

That's a very debatable claim, and you could spend a long time on that. But I can understand the argument in the short term by saying, I understand that, you know, you're feeling this way. this is because of liberals and, you know, holding out the possibility or the hope that, well, a federal conservative government will come in and that will change things. And if you're thinking about separatism, you can look forward to the possibility of a conservative government. When the conservatives are in office, Quebec's autonomy is respected. Alberta's contribution is recognized.

And our country is proud, united, affordable, and hopeful. I think that may have worked. in that room, I don't know how long or how far that argument can go going forward, because if there is a referendum in Alberta, you know, I think Pierre, Pollyev and Daniel Smith are going to be asked to take specific positions on it. And I don't know that they can say, well, you know, we understand where people are coming from and not say, you should vote against this referendum. Right. And I mean, certainly we're seeing other politicians like Ontario Premier Doug Ford say last week. This is an opportunity for Premier Smith to stand up and say enough is enough. And either you're with Canada or you're not with Canada. David Eby called the actions of the separatists following a bunch of reporting that they've been meeting with American officials. There's an old-fashioned word for that. And that word is treason. And so you could definitely see this being a challenge for the federal conservatives to navigate in this very kind of

raw, raw Canada moment. Yeah. And look, you can look at it and say, well, maybe it's easier for David E.B. And Doug Ford to say those things. For sure. Yeah. Because there aren't people who want to separate from Canada within their voter coalition. But at some point, I suspect Pierre Pahliava is going to be challenged to say more than separatists should just hold out hope for a future federal conservative government. You know, if there is a referendum, if in mind there is a referendum in Alberta, he's going to have to take a distinct position. on it. And I think the argument he made this weekend isn't necessarily going to fit in that context.

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and provide tailored solutions for all its unique needs. You put your heart into your company, so we put our heart into making sure it's protected. Get insurance that's really big on care. Find an agent today at Dejardin.com slash business coverage. The issue on so many Canadians' minds right now is Canada's relationship with the United States, lots of anxiety at this moment.

And so how did Pollyev address it in his speech? Yeah, so he talked, obviously, about the need for self-reliance. He criticized tariffs. And now more than ever, we need autonomy and independence. Unfair and unresolved U.S. tariffs and diplomatic distractions and disruptions from down south and from other places show that we cannot rely on others to secure our borders or buy our goods.

He made a pledge that he's made before to work with the government, to help the government in any way that the conservatives can to sort of sort of deal with this ongoing trade dispute. And yes, conservatives are ready to work with Mr. Carney to open up new markets and eliminate U.S. tariffs. But I don't think, you know, he didn't give his version of the Davos speech from Mark Carney, right? He didn't lay out a big view of the world of Canada's relationship with the United States of what's going to change, of what's not going to change. You know, you heard, you know, even Jason Kenney very shortly after the speech, say that he would like to see, I don't want them, it's not right for him to get obsessed, obsessively focused on Trump on a daily basis, but in a major keynote address like this, to pretend that the president of the world's superpower attacking us weekly is not an issue,

I think is misses the moment to some extent. You know, I think that is again a piece where Pierre may have said enough for that night. I still think it's a bit of a missing piece of how, How exactly does he view the world? How does he view the relationship with the United States? What exactly would he do? And what exactly would he do differently than Mark Carney? Because I think Mark Carney is making the argument that this is more than a trade dispute, right?

That this is a different world and lots of things need to change. And I just don't, we haven't quite heard Pierre Pollyas view on that yet. You know, just on Kenny's comment, I'm just curious what you make of those comments, because Kenny's name certainly has been making the rounds as a potential successor to Polly of, you know, former Premier of Alberta, high-ranking cabinet minister and Stephen Harper's government. Yeah, Jason and Kenny has been out there who are talking and offering commentary on things. And I think in some cases weighing in, you know, strongly when it comes to issues related to the United States. There's always going to be leadership speculation.

I don't think there's really any reporting or evidence yet that he's actively organizing for the leadership. His prominence is going to necessarily lead to questions like that. But I think it's interesting, you know, regardless of the sort of leadership intrigue, it's interesting to have someone out there like that offering commentary on this because, you know, not only is he a former Harper cabinet minister, but obviously he's a former Premier of Alberta who had to deal with leading a conservative party in this era and in this moment and all of the complications and challenges that come along with that. A few other things out of the convention this weekend, the delegates voted overwhelmingly to

endorse a stand-your-ground style law that would allow someone to protect themselves with lethal force against an intruder in their home. More than 90% of delegates voted to do away with DEI programs, about 77% voted to defund the CDC. And what do these policy endorsements actually mean? So, you know, most Canadians would be familiar with the election platforms that parties run on in campaigns and general elections. But in addition to those, each party has sort of a book of its official policy positions. And every time there's a policy convention, they vote on these resolutions to change or alter or add new policies to the book. it's a reflection of where the party stands on things. It doesn't necessarily bind the leader or the

party to running on those exact same things in an election campaign. So it's sometimes hard to know exactly what to make of the resolutions or exactly how much support they have within the leader's office, within the caucus. But it is an indication of where the party's most ardent supporters are at. And in that respect, I mean, a couple things I think jump out from the weekend. One is, is that there was a significant support for a resolution to oppose the federal government's existing ban on conversion therapy. This is a ban that the Conservatives under Aaron O'Toole allowed to be passed into law. I think that is a reminder that as much as it hasn't really been a point of discussion in the last few years, there's still a significant social conservative

presence within the Conservative Party. I think the other thing, not to navel gaze, but the resolution on defunding the CBC, I think is interesting because, you know, maybe I've missed it, but I don't think I've heard Pierre Pollyov repeat the promise to defund the CBC since the last campaign. And given where the country is at in terms of sovereignty and resisting American influence, I'm interested to see whether he brings that back or whether that's one of the policies, one of the promises that in his, you know, attempt to maybe present. a slightly different image or a slightly different idea in the next campaign, whether that's one of the policy promises, something he was very enthusiastic about earlier, whether that's one of

the things that gets dropped quietly. Before we move on, I want to just go back to this overwhelming show of support for Pahliava's leader again. I'm thinking of something that Jason Kenney said when he was talking to some of our colleagues on power and politics. He sort of splashed a bit of cold water on the 87% figure saying that the 87% number wasn't entirely enthusiastic. There were people who voted yes, who had certain concerns and reservations. And so what are the challenges facing Pali of now as he moves out of this convention with this show of support from the base of his party? Right. I think the first thing that people in Ottawa will be waiting to see is whether there's anyone else in the conservative covicus who's going to walk away. Ben Wood Finden,

a former advisor to Pierre Pollyov, wrote a piece a few days ago with his views of the situation and where Pierre Pollyov was at. And, you know, he definitely allowed for the possibility that there could be more people either crossing the floor or choosing to sit independently. And I think that, you know, look, obviously Pierre Palliav has fairly solid support, Jason Kenney's comments notwithstanding, within the conservative party, I think it remains to be seen exactly what his support level is within the conservative caucus. And, you know, if a couple more MPs cross the floor, a couple of things happen. One, it potentially gives the liberals a majority, which would give Mark Carney a decent runway to continue implementing policies. And suddenly you're

talking about, you know, an election may be being three years away. And the other piece of it is that if a couple more MPs leave, what does that do to the rest of the caucus and what does that do to Pierre Polyev's sort of overall standing with the public? Does it start to slide? And does that sort of lead to a larger unraveling? You don't want to discount having an 87.4% support in his party. I think that is a boost to him. But I don't know that it necessarily guarantees. that everything is going to go swimmingly from here on out. Yeah. And then certainly other challenges that he has to contend with. I know we dealt with this a lot in the documentary that we aired on Friday, but certainly how the general population views Pollyev, his negatives.

And also one challenge I keep thinking about is that Mark Carney is at least in some ways pretty conservative, right? He's cut the carbon tax. He canceled the proposed capital gains tax increase. I read in The Star this weekend. he's seeking advice from former conservative prime minister Stephen Harper that the two have spoken regularly since Carney became prime minister. Yeah, I think Mark Carney's positioning sort of presents two issues for Pierpoliath. One is that it makes it harder to distinguish himself from Mark Carney. You know, if Mark Carney gets a pipeline going and built, you know, it gets a bit harder for

Parapalev to stand up and say, I'm the leader who will get a pipeline built. The other piece of it is, that part of Pierre's argument against Mark Carney is he's not any different. This is the same liberal government, the same disappointment, the same failure to come through on things. And if Mark Carney looks and sounds different and is doing different things, it gets harder to make that argument. You know, part of the, part of the reason Mark Carney won last year is that he did seem like some amount of change. And the more Mark Carney can signal that to people, it's going to split that,

that vote of people who are looking for something, something different from the federal government after 10 years of Justin Trudeau. Okay, so let's just talk a little more squarely about Carney here. He's been on a bit of a run lately, that big speech in Davos, the premier's meeting at the end of last week.

Those pictures of him with the heated rivalry guy and Bonhomme are, presenting an image of a guy I think who's feeling pretty good about himself. And early last week, he did this press conference at a grocery store. And what was all that about? Yeah, look, a speech with international acclaim, a picture of you hugging Bonham, and then he did rivalry photo op doing what I believe is referred to as the leg thing. Give each other a hug.

You got to be the hug. It's about as good as it gets, I think, for Canadian Prime Minister. But it is interesting. He goes in a grocery store, as you say. And he essentially announces a couple things. One is a boost to the GST credit, which goes to lower income Canadians to help with the cost of the sales tax. Right now, a family of four receives about $1,100 a year with the existing GST credit. With the new Canada groceries and essentials benefit, that same family will receive up to $1,100 a year with the existing GST credit.

that same family will receive up to $1,890 this year, and about $1,400 a year for each of the next four years. And then sort of a longer-term strategy and a series of policies to hopefully boost domestic production of food and make it a bit easier to bring food into the country and hopefully sort of deal with food inflation. The strategy will include measures to implement unit label pricing. So Canadians can compare easily in this era of shrinkflation.

We'll also be going to provide support for the Competition Bureau in monitoring and enforcing competition in our market across the supply chain. And we will include new measures to strengthen food security in the north where food insecurity and affordability challenges are felt most intensely. as much as Mark Carney has had probably a pretty good two weeks all things considered, you know, food inflation, the cost of living, affordability remain a big concern for Canadians and then, and therefore, you know, a real vulnerability, I think, for the liberals, because as much as they can run on, you know, Mark Carney is the leader you want. In Davos, Mark Carney is the leader you want, staring across the table from Donald Trump. The cost of living issues, the issues, the issues, the, the issues, that are a real strength for Pierre Polly have are a big concern still for Canadians and something the liberals have to,

as much as they can, figure out. When I saw that, I mean, truly, the first thing that ran through my head was, is Cardi laying the groundwork for another election here. This feels like many days we spent on the campaign when I was covering the campaign, lots of grocery stores, lots of affordability,

so you're not considering a spring election? I don't, you can't draw that conclusion at all. Tell me that. Well, of course we're not. We're not. We're focused on... I mean, he's like standing in a grocery store, making an announcement.

I don't know. Am I crazy for thinking that? You're so cynical. Yeah, look. The Prime Minister was standing surrounded by produce and promising to help Canadians with the cost of living. It did look not unlike something you might see during an election campaign. Yeah.

Yeah. It's, you know, look, it's hard to know what. the liberals might be planning in that regard. You can definitely take a step back and look at it and say, well, his numbers are up. Canadians, generally speaking, approve of the job his government's doing. He's obviously had this kind of moment in Davos. Maybe this is the time to capitalize and try to get to an election and win the majority that they're just short of right now. I think that's, you know, as I say, you can take a step back and connect all those dots.

I don't know that Canadians are necessarily anxious for an election, and I don't know that the liberals have a clear argument for an election right now. I think the conservatives could help make that argument if they seem to be obstructing the liberals in parliament. If the government gets into a situation where it looks like it can't get things passed, if it looks like there's a real need for an election, then maybe you can make that argument. But I think there used to be this sort of conventional wisdom in Ottawa that Canadians don't necessarily want an election, but if one happens, they aren't going to be mad about it. And any debate about why the election was triggered is only going to last for a few days and then people will move on. I think the election in 2021 sort of upended that a bit because the liberals sort of stumbled into that campaign and then had a really hard time shaking the idea that it was an unnecessary election. And so I think as easy it is to look at this situation and say, ah, the liberal should trigger an election right now, I think there is a downside risk that if they do that, Canadians might not appreciate it. Right. That they could balk at this because the government also has a lot of very real stuff to do right now.

An election could be seen as a distraction from these tax like diversifying trade dealing with what America throws at us next. Though I was wondering if they could mount an argument for needing a strong mandate to go into these renegotiations with the U.S. on the U.S.MCA. Yeah. You know, I can hear Mark Carney standing there and saying we need a strong mandate to go into these negotiations. You know, we need a strong hand to play. We need to show the United States the Canadians are behind this government, so on and so forth. You know, you can practically write the speech that Mark Carney would give on day one of the election right now. I just don't know that they necessarily have the groundwork yet for that argument because I'll be cynical like you. What you'd want to see if you were the liberals would be some kind of real obstruction in parliament, some real challenges in parliament so that you could say, look, we tried it in parliament, but it's just not working. And I think you can almost hear the conservatives trying to take that argument away from them by saying things like we are happy to work with the government as much as possible to help them during these negotiations and so on and so forth.

So I think, you know, I think there may be some positioning, but I think what we kind of have to see how the next few months play out before we kind of can see how eager maybe the liberals are for an election. Right. You know, I don't like to throw around the word cynical too much. I also like to think of it as just like critical thinking. Realistic? Yeah, yeah. But look, like just as a final thought, even though he got 87.4% of his parties vote at the convention, if you are parapolia, you do not want an election right now, right?

No, I don't think you do. Because as much as, you know, if you listen to that speech he gave on Friday night, a lot of it was about, you know, where are the houses? Where is the pipeline? where, you know, where's the change? Those arguments get stronger, the longer Mark Carney is in office without having delivered on those things. It would be very easy for Mark Carney to say right now, I haven't even been in office for a year. I need more time. And I think if you're the conservatives, you look at this and say, if part of your calculus is that your way to winning the next election is for more Canadians to be disciplined. appointed in Mark Carney, then at this point you need to give Mark Carney more time to disappoint Canadians. You need a new NDP leader to come in and, you know, maybe steal some of the vote from the liberals on the left. You need time. And right now, our friend David Kledo and Abacus had a poll just last week that showed the liberals opening up a bit of a lead on that conservatives.

And so as much as Pierre Pollyov can now say he has the party behind him, it doesn't look like he would be any closer to winning the next election than he was last spring. And so Pierre Pollyov has no real reason to want an election right now. Okay. Aaron, thank you. Talk to you soon. Anytime. All right. That's all for today. I'm Jamie Plesson. Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC podcasts, go to cBC.ca.ca slash podcasts.