Front Burner - Pope watch: who's next up?

Episode Date: May 8, 2025

What's going on behind the locked doors of the Sistine Chapel this week, as the Catholic Church's cardinals meet in Rome to choose the next pope?It's a centuries-old tradition, but this time, the college of cardinals is bigger than ever, with a growing contingent from Africa and Asia — many of them attending their first conclave ever. That means lots of different priorities, and of course the lingering question of whether to continue the liberal legacy of the late Francis, or to opt for more stability and traditionality.Charles Collins is the managing editor of the Crux, an independent publication covering the Catholic Church. He is our guest to break it all down.For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

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This is a CBC Podcast. Hey everyone, I'm Jamie Plessant. Catholic cardinals from across the globe are sequestered away from the world in Rome this week, where they will ultimately select the next pope. When Pope Francis died in late April, he left a fairly liberal legacy behind. He took the Church in new directions on climate change and homosexuality. But that is not a direction or a style that was universally loved by the clergy. Francis also appointed about 80%

of the current College of Cardinals, with more members from places like Africa and Asia than ever before. They bring different perspectives and priorities. And since these are the guys who will be picking the new pope, there are a lot of different ways that this could go. I am here today with Charles Collins. He worked for Vatican Radio for 16 years. That's the official radio station of the Catholic Church of the Vatican.

He's now the managing editor of The Crux, which is an independent publication that covers the Catholic Church. He's had front row seats to the last two papal conclaves. had front row seats to the last two papal conclaves. Charles, hi, thanks so much for coming onto the show. Thanks for having me. So you and I are speaking at around 8 p.m. Rome time on Wednesday, the first evening of the conclave. And just what is happening right now? Right now, hopefully, the cardinals are voting on who they want to be the next pope and those

votes are being counted. Of course, the room is closed, so we don't know for sure what's happening. And there's more cardinals voting now than have ever voted for such a thing before. There's 133 of them in there, and only 25 of them have ever been in a conclave before. So no one knows exactly how long this process will take for them. In general, I would have expected the smoke to have risen by now, but again, it's sort of a new experience because a lot of these guys, and there's a lot of them, are doing it for the first time. Just before we keep going, explain the smoke to me for someone who might not be familiar. They have a furnace put into the Sistine Chapel and all the cardinals write down who they

think should be pope. Then those are counted. And if it's a two thirds majority happens, that person is asked if he wants to be pope. And then they take all of those things these guys filled out and they put them in a furnace't get a proper pope, then it goes out black and it's black smoke, it means there's no pope. And if it's white smoke, it means there is a pope. Lauren Ruffin You mentioned that there are so many new cardinals this time around. And why is that? David McDonough Pope Francis liked to make cardinals. He'd do it every year. He wanted to expand the cardinals to other countries which did not traditionally have cardinals. They've been using cardinals to vote for popes for almost a thousand years. And generally speaking, historically, most of these cardinals were from Italy. And

this goes into the into a hundred years ago. Most of them were from Italy. And they started becoming more international. Really, 70 years ago, it really started happening. And even that was a little bit. And it wasn't until Pope John Paul II started really expanding the College of Cardinals that you started seeing many coming from Africa, from Asia. Now, when Pope John Paul II died, it was the first time these people from, not from Europe, arrived. And let's just say they felt a little bit excluded from the process. And I heard many Cardinals, I worked at the Vatican at the time, interviewed a lot of Cardinals and the ones from Africa and from Asia and even from

Latin America, they did not like the way they were excluded because people were holding dinners and they were holding all of these meetings before the conclave and they realized they weren't being invited to these meetings and they were kind of irked, I will say. Then with Pope Francis, that also, that election was very European centered, although by picking a non European it did garner a lot of support from those Cardinals from outside of Europe This present conclave They have said it these Cardinals from especially from Africa and Asia are saying we will not be ignored. And that's what is most

interesting about this conclave, is the issues facing the church and the developing world, which are different than the issues facing in Europe and in North America, are going to play a role in the election of the new pope. Well, tell me more about that. You know, when they say we will not be ignored, ignored on what? I'm an American who lived in Italy for nearly 17 years and now live in England. And frankly, when you say a progressive or liberal church, you think of gay marriage, you think of women priests, women deacons, you think about having contraception and things

like that. If you say conservative, well, you think the exact opposite of all those things, but also you talk a lot about the Latin mass, immigration laws and things like that. And when we talk about persecuted Catholics and persecuted Christians in England or in America or in Canada, usually it's free speech issues. I mean, frankly, that's free speech issues. I mean, frankly, that's what it is. And I'm not saying these aren't important issues. They are important issues that are being discussed.

But if you go to Nigeria, it's because someone walked into your church and started shooting everyone. And the government really didn't care. In Nigeria, at least 50 people were killed, many more injured when a gunman stormed a Catholic church in the country's southwest. This is people gathered for Sunday mass. Local media reports say the gunman opened fire before detonating explosives. Many of the victims are children.

If you go to India, it is because the Hindu Nationalist Party kind of discriminates against you and passes laws saying that anytime anyone converts to Christianity, it's because they were forced to and the people who were involved with it are criminals and they need to go to jail. Right-wing Hindu groups here strongly support the law. Once the law comes, we can demolish these churches. We are already prepared to demolish them, but we are waiting for the law to be passed. Once it is passed, our hands are no longer tied.

We are free to take action. We can catch them and report them to the police, and they'll go to prison. And they don't understand why people in the West, where the church is dying, with church, you know, people aren't going to mass as much are worried about gay marriage and Latin masses. And they see that and they go, I don't think you guys are thinking about what's of pope that they will want, right? These cardinals from the global south, does that mean that they would want to continue in the vein of Pope Francis? Or would they want someone radically different than Francis?

I think they would want someone who had what they see as the good sides of Pope Francis, and they'd want someone who didn't have what they saw as the bad sides of Pope Francis. Pope Francis was strong about helping immigrants and refugees. He was very strong about helping the poor. He was very strong about saying the church should not endorse living a luxurious life. And that means bishops and even priests in some countries, they dress nicely, they eat nice dinners and they don't understand what it means to be poor and they don't really connect with the people. He would say that he would talk about having the smell of the sheep and

they really liked that. However, what they didn't like was his emphasis sometimes on the political issues that really are discussed in the West. They did not want gay marriage. They didn't care about women priests and women deacons. They were functionally on these kinds of issues much more conservative. And in their mind, that's where the church is growing. And they say, if you look at what the mainstream Protestant churches are doing, they're collapsing because they take on these issues. And the more conservative churches in the West are growing because they keep the conservative issue and they want the Catholic Church to be more conservative on social issues. We're talking about all of these fault lines in the global South and the global North.

And when we're talking about Catholicism in the West, I wonder if you could just talk to me briefly about someone like JD Vance, vice president of the US and recent convert to Catholicism. And how does his story kind of fit into this discussion that we're having about tensions within the church? Well, JD Vance is a conservative convert who is somewhat theologically minded, which means he's read a lot more theological documents. And like even me, I'm a professional Catholic and I'm sure JD Vance has read a lot more theological books than I have. And there is definitely a conservative school amongst these converts. J.D. Vance is in that school, and he has this interesting relationship with

Pope Francis, in that J.D. Vance gave an interview where he talked about Catholic teaching on love. But there's this old school, and I think it's a very Christian concept by the way, that you love your family and then you love your neighbor, and then you love your community, and then you love your fellow citizens in your own country. And then after that,

you can focus and prioritize the rest of the world. A lot of the far left has completely inverted that. They seem to hate the citizens of their own country and care more about people outside their own borders. That is no way to run a society. And Pope Francis, you know, kind of wrote a letter to the US bishops saying don't think like that. And then the last person to meet Pope Francis before he died, the last outside figure to meet Pope Francis before he died was JD Vance. He met him on Easter. Hello. So good to see you. I know you've not been feeling great, but it's good to see you in better health. And it's kind of an interesting juxtaposition of his relationship with the Pope.

And I think you'll see this in Canada, and you definitely see it in the United States. There is a conflict, it's almost a fair word, between what would be termed the pro-life Catholics and the justice and peace Catholics. You have some Catholics who are much more concerned about abortion, who are much more concerned about strong marriages between a man and a woman, marriages between a man and a woman. And JD Vance is in that school. And there's another school that is much more interested in social justice and helping the poor, helping immigrants and especially refugees. And these two emphases, they go against each other in politics. And JD Vance is in that pro-life camp. And that other camp generally would support the Democratic Party in the United States.

These weird conflicts aren't actually the same even in a lot of European countries. It's just the way politics developed in the United States. ["The Last Post," by Robert R. R. Riegel, playing in the background.] Have you ever finished a book and just needed to talk about it immediately, or wanted to know the wildest research an author has done for a book, or even what Book Talk books are actually worth your time? Hi, I'm Morgan book. Yes, that is actually my last name. And this is off the shelf my new podcast that covers everything related to books. Each Thursday, I chat with other bookworms and authors or sometimes it's just me rambling about my latest

book obsession from book to screen updates to hot takes on new releases. And of course, our monthly book club discussions I've got you covered. So get your TBR list ready and listen to Off the Shelf wherever you get your podcasts. [♪ music playing in background, And maybe what I could do here is just give you some names. So Pietro Parolin, he's been the Vatican Secretary of State since 2013 and seems to get mentioned a lot as a possible frontrunner. I'm not saying that Polly Market is the best predictor of who the next pope will be, but it certainly has him in first place right now at 32 odds. What about him? Dr. Michael S. Hickman Well, positive things about him is he worked with Pope Francis

for the entire pontificate, and so he had good relations with Pope Francis. While at the same time, he didn't truly offend the conservatives. They are, many conservative Catholics don't like the relationship that he was trying to develop with China. And just for, just for people listening, sorry, he brokered this deal in 2018, right? That gave the Chinese government a say in choosing cardinals? Not cardinals, choosing bishops. And the problem is, is the Chinese government just kept on improving them without asking the Vatican's permission.

And the Vatican, in order not to destroy the deal, would just confirm the bishops afterwards. And that's what people complained about. Right. And, you know, and I don't think most of the other cardinals care that much about it because in many ways, Pope Francis wanted to deal with China and he got him a deal with China. The things that would go against him is he is very much enshrined in the Vatican sphere.

I mean, he was, he's never had a real bishop job, leading the diocese. He was in charge of finances and stuff, and he didn't do a very good job. The Vatican lost a lot of money under him sometimes. And there are lots of rumors about his health because he is a cancer survivor. So people sometimes use that against him.

So those are the things that would work against him. But yeah, he's probably the number one candidate, but again, we have 30%. The other guy I hear a lot about is Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines. He seems to be getting a lot of media coverage. He kind of seems like a bit of a media darling, fair for me to say.

Yes, he is a media darling, isn't he? Every time there is a conflave, and I say this, I've only been through two of them, so I take everything I say with a grain of salt. There is a candidate who the press loves, but the Cardinals aren't going to vote for. Toglay, in many ways, I think is that Cardinal this year.

He's been at the Vatican for a few years and he's had three jobs, and the reason is because he messed up two of his previous jobs. I say that not because he's, it wasn't corruption or anything like that. It was just that he wasn't a very good manager. And I'm from Texas originally, and we have a term about a person being all hat and no cattle.

And that kind of describes Tagli. Okay. Forgive me. I don't want to go to hell for all eternity, but I just said what I said. If it is him, which sounds unlikely. I will probably lose my job, yeah. No, no, I just want to say for people listening,

he would be the first Asian Pope. He would be the first Asian pope, yes. Let's do one more together. Pierre Battista Pizzaballa, which sounds like a pretty fun name. He's the current patriarch of Jerusalem. He's my bet. He's your bet. He's my bet.

Okay, well, when I was reading, he seemed to me like he was kind of a dark horse here. He's younger and I'm surprised that you just said that. So why? Well, he is a dark horse, yes. But if you bet on the sure thing, you don't win a lot. So I'm going to bet on the guy who is the dark horse. Why is he good?

Because there are four groups in the conclave. The first group are the conservatives, and there aren't that many of them left. The second group are the progressives, which there are a much stronger group than there were the last two conclaves, but there's still not a vast majority. The third group are people from the developing world who are much more concerned about persecution than some of these social issues affecting the West. And the fourth group are Italians who are the largest group of Cardinals. And also, frankly, before Pope John Paul II, all the popes were from Italy for a few hundred years. They think it's their job.

And he kind of fits all four groups. He's Italian, but not too Italian. And... Because he's been in the Middle East for a while, right? That's why, yeah, okay. He's been in the Middle East because he was a member of the Franciscans of the Holy Land. He is generally socially conservative-ish,

as you would have to be if you're in the Middle East, but he also cares about the poor and he cares about the social issues. I don't think he would be considered progressive on things like gay marriage, but he might be more progressive on things dealing with contraception and things like that. But I admit I've never asked him. But I don't think he offends the progressives. And I don't think and I think the conservatives would be happy with him. And the Italians and the people from the developing world would love him. So that's why he's my pick. I think he'd be the one. But again, no one knows. Who ever they pick, what are the biggest challenges that the next pope is going to face in the years ahead? And I imagine that we've touched on some of them in the conversation today, but I think it would be worthwhile for me to ask you that

straight. I think the biggest challenges will be for the church dealing with some of the social issues which people are facing. And also, I think in the West, people were thinking about, oh, there's progress and we're going to be progressive. And right now we're seeing a rise amongst conservatives. You see Trump and you also see it happening here in England. And it looked like it was going to happen in Canada, but Trump managed to bomb that. And I think that he has to deal with the fact that politics is different, is getting weird. And he has to be able to confront that, but not confront it like it's the 1980s, it's like 1980 again. We're in a new era.

So let me ask you as a Catholic, and I ask this question also, as a Catholic myself, I grew up, I went to Catholic school. I would not consider myself religious anymore. We're like a cult, you're not allowed to do. Do you do you think it can face those challenges that you're raising right now? Do you think it's capable of it? This institution? Do I think it's capable of it?

Uh as a human institution no. As a divine institution, yes. And they are, and that is a very weird way of putting it, but it is as a Catholic, I have to sit there and say, yeah, I believe there is a God, and I do believe that He does influence what we do and how things happen. And so, yes, I have to believe the church can face these issues. But there's an old saying, you know, if you're one to be Catholic and you wonder why should I become a Catholic, why should I think it's true? And the number one reason people will often give if they're professional Catholics like I am, is you would need divine intervention to be as messed up as this thing has been for 2,000 years and still be around. Because yeah, yeah, you look at church history and you're going,

how does this thing still exist? And so, yes, I have to believe that they can answer these questions, that they can provide solutions. And, you know, what the Bible says is, you shall know the truth and the truth will set you free. And so hopefully the church can present the truth in a way that people can understand it and it will set them free. Charles, I really enjoyed this conversation. Thank you so much. Can I say something to you that is not that I'm just saying that smoke has not come up

yet? I know we're just we're looking at a live stream to you. What is that? What does that mean? This is absolutely terrifying well see this is the thing that's 133 these guys there So I don't know If it means one that they have just messed up If they count the ballots and they don't have 133 ballots, it means one's missing. This has happened before.

And what they have to do is they have to re-vote. That could be a possibility. Two, there's 133 of them and they're just kind of freaking out. And that could be a reason uh something could have delayed it well i think a lot of us have seen conclaves well yeah the conclave was awful um i i watched it today because i had to admit that i hadn't seen it all so i watched it today that full in full and oh it was bad from the beginning in full and oh, it was bad from the beginning.

No sane man would want to play proceed. The men who are dangerous are the ones who do want to. That sounds ominous. The scariest thing would be if someone's been elected. Right. Wow. I mean, that would be if someone's been elected. Right. Well. I mean, that would be one of the reasons that the smoke hasn't gone up yet. If someone actually just got elected in one vote,

and if someone got elected in one vote, that just doesn't happen. I think we're probably going to have to get you back up then if that happens. I mean, if that, if that, well, if that is not what happened, you're gonna have to throw this show away. Yeah I hope your evening is okay Well, if there's a new pope drop me a line because I'm not gonna go to sleep tonight will do Thank you so much. Really appreciate it. All right. Thank you, too I'm sorry if I blabbered too much, but I'm just I I'm just watching no smoke going up and it's freaking me out. All right.

Thanks a lot. Bye bye. All right. So just a note to say that almost immediately after we recorded our conversation with Charles, black smoke, we saw black smoke. So that means no Pope Wednesday night, but we will see what today and tomorrow brings. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.