Front Burner - Quebec’s election and a political crossroad

Episode Date: September 30, 2022

For decades, Quebec voters made the choice between the provincial Liberal Party and the Parti Québécois (PQ). But in 2018, that changed. François Legault led the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) to a landslide victory by offering voters an option between the Liberals' federalism and the PQ's focus on sovereignty. On Monday, the province heads back to the polls for its first election after the pandemic, amid a health-care crisis and two very controversial bills about individual rights. While Legault is still projected to win a majority, the bigger question is who will form the official opposition. Today, CBC's Jonathan Montpetit takes us through what happened in the campaign for premier, and what the results could say about the consolidation of conservative nationalism in the province.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Jamie Poisson. So on Monday, Quebecers will head to the polls to decide who leads their government. You may remember back in 2018, Francois Legault and his coalition Avenir Quebec, the CAQ, one in this total landslide. The established parties are out, and an upstart party that's only a few years old captured a huge majority.

Let's work together to make Quebec stronger within Canada, and I want to assure you that my government will be your government. My government will be your government. Well, a pandemic, a health care crisis, two very controversial bills around individual rights later. And here we are, another election. Today, my colleague and sometimes wonderful host of this podcast, Jean-Montpetit, is here. And we're going to talk about what happened during this election campaign and what it could tell us about the consolidation of conservative nationalism in Quebec. John, hey, thank you so much for coming on ahead of Monday's election. Yeah, thanks so much for having me.

It's a pleasure. I think this is going to be really interesting. No pressure, though. No pressure. I wonder if we can start this conversation by actually going back to 2018 when Francois let go the current premier and his CAQ party were elected. This was a big moment in Quebec politics. And talk to me about why that was. Yeah, it was a really big moment in Quebec politics because it broke basically a 50-year tradition, a 50-year paradigm in which the only two parties to hold power in Quebec were either the Liberals or the Parti Québécois. For that time period, the dominant question of Quebec politics was sovereignty. The Liberals represented the federalist option. They represented the stay-in-Canada option.

And the Parti Québécois represented the sovereignist option. And for those 50 years, really the defining issue of any election campaign was, was sovereignty on the table? Was there going to be a referendum? Was federalism going to work, do enough for Quebec? And then in the decade leading up to 2018, there were other kind of third parties who appeared on the scene, slowly gained momentum. And really, it was the CAQ of Francois Legault that was able to kind of break through and assert itself as a new option for Quebecers. Yeah. And what was it that allowed him to break through in 2018? Like,

what got the CAQ and Francois Legault elected back then? The CAQ, by offering this kind of conservative nationalism, basically what it tried to do is offer a third way between the federalism of the liberals and the sovereignty of the PQ. And so by advocating kind of more nationalist policies, it was able to take votes from the PQ. And by being economically conservative on a lot of issues, it was able to take votes away from the liberals. And so I guess a fair label to put on what Legault is selling is like conservative nationalism, right? Like that's what we call it. And like explain to me or give me a few Kohl's notes on how that played out over the years that they've been in power.

Like what's his brand of conservative nationalism? How is it defined? So basically Quebec politics has been defined basically by a red tradition and a blue tradition. The red tradition being a liberal tradition, more interested in individual rights, and the blue tradition being the conservative, more nationalist tradition,

more interested in collective rights. The CAQ really taps into that blue tradition, les bleus. And so a big part of it is, yes, like an economic conservatism. It's kind of this economic nationalism. So it's very interested in, you know, encouraging Quebecers to buy local. And when it comes to less economic and more social issues, it's very concerned with Quebec pride. It's very concerned with the social cohesion of the province. And that's where

you got Premier Legault advocating things, the kind of the two flagship pieces of legislation, of course, of its first term in office being Bill 21, the secularism legislation, which bans a lot of civil servants from wearing religious symbols at work. The bill would ban people like judges, police officers, and teachers from wearing symbols like kippahs, crosses, hijabs, and turbans at work. The bill would also require people to show their faces to get a public service. And Bill 96, which kind of is an update

to Quebec's language laws, requires immigrants to interact with the government in French and expands a lot of the regulatory powers to enforce the French language. It's a question of survival. If we don't take action to protect French, it's a matter of time. Quebec becomes a bilingual state. It's a matter of time before we lose the presence of French in Quebec. So Bill 21 and Bill 96 are seen as kind

of the two flagship pieces of this conservative nationalism, because in both instances, the party invokes the notwithstanding clause. So it prevents the courts from ruling on whether these two laws violate individual rights. And the argument that Premier Legault gives for this is that, in this instance, the collective rights of the francophone majority are more important than individual rights. In Canadian constitution, we have this notwithstanding clause to protect collective rights. And I can understand that some people, they don't like to see us protecting collective rights. And I can understand that some people, they don't like to see us protecting collective rights of the Quebec majority of people. But it was planned this way to be part of the Canadian constitution. Right. And of course, these have been highly controversial,

and we've talked about them on the show before. But in Quebec, how has this gone and how has it translated into support for the CAQ party going into this election? I guess put a simpler way, how's Francois Legault looking? So polling-wise, he's looking very good. His party has a very comfortable lead in the polls and I think it would be a huge surprise to everyone were he to lose this election or even end up with a minority government. The two pieces of legislation, Bill 21 and Bill 96, they tend to poll pretty well, especially among francophone voters and especially among francophone voters outside the big cities in Quebec. Premier Legault has said, you know, that with this legislation, especially with Bill 21,

he's kind of like put to rest this long-running debate in Quebec over how to accommodate minority religious and cultural practices. That is clearly not the case. You know, this is clearly still, there's still a lot of opposition to the legislation. And a lot of people are hurt by this, particularly Muslim women who not only can't work in large parts of the civil service, they also report being victim of more cases of harassment. Is it fair for me to say that one of the big questions going into this election was whether this trend that you're talking about, away from the Federalist-Sovereignist divide that dominated Quebec politics for decades, and towards a divide defined by this conservative nationalism on the right and then an opposition on the left would continue. Yeah, I mean, I think that is the big meta-level question of this debate.

Quebec's political history, political development is at a crossroads. You know, for Quebecers who for so many years, basically, they walked into the voting booth and there were two options on the ballot. Now there are five viable parties that are polling above 10 percent. And so it's a very different political landscape now. And how things are going to look on Monday is still, you know, still up in the air, still be determined. So it's not necessarily this left-right divide, but the conservative nationalism on the right, and then what kind of options might come out of the rest of the spectrum. That's fair to say? I think that's fair to say. And I think what the shape of Quebec politics will be going for the next four, next eight years is still to be determined.

Certainly, the conservative nationalism of the CAQ appears to be here to stay, at least for the short to medium term. The form that the opposition will take is still, you know, we still don't know what it will be. Who will be the strongest oppositional force? That is what is playing out really in this election. Yeah, yeah. It seems to be quite a tight race when it comes to who's going to be sort of second place, right? Like, so let's talk about the opposition and the party in 2018 that came in second to Legault, CAQ, was the Liberals. And, like, how are things going for them this time around? How are they doing?

How have they positioned themselves as the alternative to the CAQ? Yeah, so things aren't going great for the liberals. They haven't gone great for liberals since the 2018 election. They had their worst ever performance in 2018. performance in 2018. And even the most optimistic scenarios for the party this time around, they will most probably do even worse this time around. So they're facing a very real crisis, whether or not the party will survive. It's so crazy to think that we're talking about whether this party might just die. It is such a traumatic departure from existing Quebec history. To begin contemplating a political landscape in Quebec without the Liberal Party, that's quite revolutionary

in many ways. I think the biggest challenge that they face right now is they're not very popular among Francophone Quebecers. The base of the party support is Anglophones and Allophones, and it's largely restricted to the Montreal area. And that simply does not allow them to pick up enough votes to win an election. And it may not be enough votes for them even to remain as official opposition. With the CEQ coming back and being so strong and advocating this conservative nationalism, the liberals seem to have a hard time convincing voters that their brand of politics, their belief in charter rights, their belief in federalism is capable of answering their concerns. And so as politics in Quebec has become more about immigration and more about identity, the Quebec liberals have really struggled to find policies that resonate with voters.

Right. I mean, they're basically putting themselves up as opposed to some of these means that have been very popular, as you just said, by logo government, Bill 21, Bill 96. Yeah, they are openly against these two pieces of legislation. Their position is that they would remove the notwithstanding clause from them, which almost certainly would mean that some court would strike the legislation down. Tell me a little bit about the liberal leader, who I have to admit I actually do not know very much about, besides this truly awkward video of her that was making the rounds where she was dancing and singing to like the Black Eyed Peas. I feel like that's really unfair because I don't think I would have done a better job dancing and singing to the Black Eyed Peas either.

But tell me a bit about her. Yeah. And for the record, I'm also a terrible dancer. So it's very bad. Yeah, there's a leg kick. You know, all kidding aside, that video really showed a more human side of Dominique on GLAAD that people hadn't seen yet. So she's kind of a political unknown a little bit in Quebec. She only became the leader of the Quebec Liberal Party in 2020, right in the middle of a pandemic when

basically the premier was on TV the whole time. The whole province's attention was kind of, you know, fixated on these daily news conferences that he was giving. So she had this kind of, you know, political environment where it was very difficult for her to get known. But, you know, but she has a very interesting, you know, backstory. She's born in Montreal, the child of Haitian immigrants. Her parents were opponents of the Duvalier regime. She has an engineering degree from Université de Montréal. She also does an MBA. She had a successful career in the private sector, worked for McKinsey for a while.

And then when she came into politics, she was actually first a candidate with the CAQ right at the beginning of that party's history back in 2012 and then joined the Liberals in 2015. She served as an economy minister before becoming a leader in 2020. Okay. And so I just want to take a bit of time. She is the only woman party leader running, also the only candidate of color running, the only black candidate. I wonder if you could just tell me about a moment during the first debate that made headlines, and it was over the use of the N-word. Here's a debate. It's the first major debate with a black woman leader of a political party in Quebec. And the leader of the PQ used the N-word,

Party in Quebec, and the leader of the PQ used the N-word, which is contained in the title of a book that was published in the 60s. It's a very well-known book in Quebec, and whether or not people feel comfortable saying the full title of the book has become kind of a political game in Quebec. Anyway, so during the debate, the PQ leader says the title of the book and then goads the leader of Quebec Solidaire, Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, into also saying it, kind of like challenging him to say the the middle of this televised debate with the first black woman to be leader of a political party in Quebec are two white leaders using the N-word. I want to come back to Plamondon and the PQ in a moment. But first, you know, we've just talked about how the liberals are kind of collapsing here. They've got this leader who's very interesting, but has had a really hard time making any traction. And they're frankly looking like they're going to do worse than 2018. So if the votes aren't going to the liberals, the votes in opposition to the CAQ, where are they going? So I think a large share of that oppositional vote is going to Quebec Solidaire, this progressive left-wing party, relatively new, only elected its first MNA in 2008.

And they have really tried to become the obvious government-in-waiting, so to speak. You know, they want to be the other option. So you'd have on the right, you'd have the CAQ, and then on the left, you'd have Quebec Solidaire. And their plan to combat climate change was lauded by several climate experts in the province. And I think one of the reasons that they've been able to challenge the Liberals is that they're not an establishment party. And I think a lot of people in Quebec still associate the Liberals with the establishment of the business class. And I think a lot of people in Quebec still associate the Liberals with the establishment of the business class. And I think as politics begins to change and the environment becomes a bigger issue, Quebec Solidaire has been well positioned to capitalize on more progressive politics. That was interesting because the party is still, I mean, at least, I guess, loosely clinging to sovereignty.

I mean, at least, I guess, loosely clinging to sovereignty. And like, is that helping them or is that hurting them with the voters that they want? That's a good question, whether it's helping or hurting them. And I think what comes to mind if you ask a Quebecer about Quebec solidaire isn't their position on sovereignty. It's rather their more progressive positions on the environment. They're also opposed to Bill 21. But when it came down to Bill 96, the language legislation, they voted in favor of it. Despite these measures that were seen as being anti-immigrant and anti-Indigenous. Because a lot of Indigenous communities in Quebec saying this legislation was going to work against

their efforts to preserve their own language. And so Indigenous communities in Quebec, they were really calling on Quebec Solidaire to vote against the bill. Quebec Solidaire didn't. For me, this would kind of show the tension between the progressive values on the one hand and their commitment to sovereignty on the other.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household income? That's not a typo. 50%.

That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Cops. Before we wrap things up, back to Plum on Dawn, the Parti Quebecois, and the party got walloped in 2018, right? And it was doing terribly coming into this election, but it has seen increased support recently, right? And why?

Especially in this context that we're talking about the popularity of conservative nationalism in the province. The Parti Québécois is pitching itself as an even more nationalistic option to the CAQ. So, you know, if you're a nationalist, Plamondon was basically saying, you know, you should really vote for our sovereignist party. And if you're a nationalist, why are you happy with keeping immigration at the current level, you should cut it even further to 35,000 new immigrants per year, which is what the PQ is proposing. It's by kind of

doubling down on those nationalistic policies that the PQ, I think, has been able to win over some support, which had previously been with the CAQ. But talking about their positions around immigration and stuff like Plamondon, but also Legault have made really controversial statements around immigration that have made headlines during this campaign. And just like tell me a little bit about what's going on there. made headlines during this campaign. And just like, tell me a little bit about what's going on there. I think, yeah, I mean, I think if there's one ballot box issue of this election, it has been immigration. And I think the reason why is that Premier Legault continually, you know, says things that flirt with outright xenophobia. He says things that are factually incorrect about

immigration and the threat that immigrants pose to the French language. And I think now in the final days of the campaign, he's really fighting this image that he is, you know, like quite close minded to immigrants. And I think that's been fairly damaging to his campaign. Look, John, you've mentioned in this conversation that it's clear that national conservatism is here to stay. And what's less clear is the alternative to that and what that's really going to look like or what's going to kind of gain momentum. But when the votes come in on Monday, when you look at the percentage of votes, these conservative parties, the PQ and the CAQ that we've been talking about, and to a lesser extent, the Conservative Party, which I know we haven't had time to get into, but I know they're expected to get a little bit of the vote.

Combined, what will this tell you about the project of conservative nationalism in Quebec and the strength of the opposition? So I think to answer the question, I just want to kind of go back to something I said earlier about the last 50 years of Quebec politics being dominated by a liberal party and the Parti Québécois. And I think during that period of time, the policies of Quebec have been, by and large, more social democratic. Quebec was kind of seen as like a liberal place, you know, subsidized daycare and a big health care system and really cheap education. And I think all that now is being cast into doubt. So if this conservative nationalist movement consolidates itself, we could potentially see a complete

reorientation of Quebec politics around taking a less social democratic side and taking a more conservative side, and especially when it comes to identity and immigration issues. If the PQ does well, and the CAQ does well, and the Quebec Conservatives do well, it would suggest to me that this conservative nationalist orientation extends beyond just one party. On the other hand, is the alternative to that the business-friendly centrism of the Quebec Liberal Party? Or will it be this more left-wing, more progressive orientation represented by Quebec Solidaire? You know, to me, what this election is really about is about the ideological future of Quebec. What kind of policies, what kind of ideas will dominate the political landscape for the next

10, 15 years in the province. Okay. John, this was, as promised, super interesting. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you so much for having me, Jamie. All right. That is all for this week. FrontBburner was produced this week by Imogen Burchard, Derek Vanderwyk, Allie Janes, Shannon Higgins, and Lauren Donnelly. Our sound design was by Sam McNulty. Our music is by Joseph Chabison. Our executive producer is Nick McCabe-Locos. I'm Jamie Poisson.

Thanks so much for listening, and we will talk to you on Monday.