Front Burner - Rhetoric and reality in the fight for Ukraine

Episode Date: January 21, 2022

Today, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is meeting Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov after a week of escalation over the future of Ukraine. Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly was in Ukraine earlier this week, expressing Canada's support for the country. But Ottawa Citizen defence reporter David Pugliese says Canada's military actions paint a different picture. In fact — Canada's moves on the ground reveal a limit to the government's willingness to help in Ukraine's looming fight. We're also joined by Eilish Hart, the English-language news editor for the Latvia-based news site Meduza, who explains why that means Ukraine is getting ready to go it alone — and how regular Russians may curtail the Kremlin's actions.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Jamie Poisson. For months now, Ukraine and Russia have been in a high-stakes stare-down. Russia keeps sending troops to encircle the country's borders.

Over 100,000 soldiers are on the edge of Ukraine's territory right now. And Ukrainians have said they're ready to fight a global superpower alone if they have to. This week, things really started to ramp up. It is going to be a disaster for Russia if they further invade Ukraine and that our allies and partners are ready to impose severe costs. U.S. President Joe Biden says he thinks that Russia could, quote, move into Ukraine. Our Prime Minister echoed those sentiments. One of the things that we have seen is that Russia is looking for excuses or reasons to continue and even escalate its aggression against Ukraine. What's been happening is drawing comparisons with the Cuban missile crisis.

Ukraine. What's been happening is drawing comparisons with the Cuban missile crisis. We're going to be talking to Eilish Hart of the independent news site Meduza to get the view from Russia and Ukraine. But first, for what's been happening in D.C. and how involved exactly Canada has been. We'll be talking to David Pugliese, defense reporter at the Ottawa Citizen. hi david thank you so much for making the time oh my pleasure thank you so let's start with some of the latest news here on wednesday uh u.s president joe biden gave a news conference where he predicted russia would invade ukraine prime minister trudeau also said he fears armed conflict in Ukraine. And what moves from Russia have led to that impression? So Russia has moved around 100,000 troops into the border areas near Ukraine. More importantly, they put into position the capabilities that an invasion force

would need. So they have their medical units in place. They have multiple rocket launchers in place. Logistics, which is very important for a military move, are being put in place. So it's sending the signal that if Putin wants to invade, he is going to be capable of doing that. Okay. They also announced, Russia also announced on Thursday, these naval drills all over the world, drills that will involve 140 warships, 60 aircrafts. And I know a week ago, they threatened to deploy to Venezuela and Cuba. And this follows a move earlier this week to move troops to Belarus for drills. And so what message are they trying to send with all of these moves? Well, Putin has demanded that, you know, he's got a list of demands. And one of them is that Ukraine not be allowed to join NATO.

You've got a list of demands, and one of them is that Ukraine not be allowed to join NATO. And so he's sending this message that he's serious. He's, you know, kind of flexing his muscles. He's showing that although, you know, Russia, people say is no longer a superpower, it's a faded superpower. He's showing that it still has intense military capability and it can move that capability around the globe. And NATO has rejected that demand, right? That's correct. Also, U.S. officials have said that Russia was planning this false flag operation. I wonder if you could tell me a little bit about that.

So the idea behind that is Russia needs an excuse to launch its invasion. So if they did some kind of false flag episode, perhaps involving the Russian speaking population in Ukraine. They could say that, no, they've been put at risk, we have to go in to protect those those people. And so that gives him the pretext of launching his invasion. I know that the information is coming from US intelligence sources. But do you think it's credible? Like, does it does it seem like this is something that Russia is planning or would do? Well, I don't know. I mean, does he really need a, you know, a pretext to invade? He could say that we feel threatened by, you know, NATO countries, you know, providing new weapons to Ukraine, providing training to Ukraine.

I don't know if anyone would buy that false flag, that he needs that. And it is coming from US intelligence. So I always tend to look at such information, you know, with, you know, a kind of a suspicious eye. Our information also indicates that Russian influence actors are already starting to fabricate Ukrainian provocations in state and social media to justify a Russian intervention and sow divisions in Ukraine. So it's important to note what people are seeing out there and to call out this misinformation that is being spread to as a false flag operation. You mentioned support from these NATO and NATO allies. And so we have been seeing a number of more recent moves from the West. And I want to get

to Canada specifically in a minute. But first, can we talk about what we're seeing from other Western and Western allied countries? Well, so you're starting to see promises of more money, promises of military help. So Britain, for instance, has said it's going to send anti-tank missiles to Ukraine. The United States has already sent some of those missiles and has promised additional military help. Interestingly enough, the U.S. has said it isn't going to send any more troops to Ukraine. So that's an interesting signal. I want to talk about why you think that's an interesting signal in a few minutes. But first, the CIA, there was news that they've been involved in this like secret training mission, the CIA in Ukraine. And I

wonder if you could tell me about what's been happening there. Yeah. So these reports are that Ukrainian special forces are being trained by the CIA, but they've been, you know, this program, according to the reports has been going since 2015. I mean, it's sexy. It's sexy news. But I don't know if it's a major issue in the sense that if they've been trained since 2015, they certainly haven't been, you know, we're not seeing any consequences from this training. We're not seeing Ukraine getting an upper hand, for instance, on Russia. I mean, it doesn't surprise me the CIA trains paramilitary around the world. So it would make sense for them to provide training for Ukraine's special forces and intelligence to gather intelligence. I don't know whether that's a major factor in this issue in the sense that this training has been going on since 2015.

So, you know, it's just coming to light now because of the situation. It's the same with, you know, headlines are there, Canada sending a warship to the Black Sea. Headlines are there, Canada sending a warship to the Black Sea. Well, you know, that was planned six months ago. And we've been rotating warships in and around the Mediterranean and Black Sea, you know, since 2015 as a show of support for Ukraine. So if the reports of the warship going to the Black Sea, you think, might not be directly linked to this latest provocation. I mean, I do want to focus on Canada a little bit more now because we did send our Foreign Minister, Melanie Jolie, there this week. Canada's Melanie Jolie met Canadian soldiers on a training mission in Ukraine.

As that country stares down the threat from Russia on its borders. When a friend is going through difficult times, well, as a friend, we're there. Did you find that to be a significant move? I think it's a good PR move. It shows Ukraine that Canada is taking things seriously. But the foreign minister, our foreign minister has a very limited ability to provide anything to Ukraine. I mean, we have sent in the past, the Canadian forces have sent some of its equipment, such as sleeping bags, medical kits, bulletproof vests. We haven't sent any weapons.

It's bulletproof vests. We haven't sent any weapons. Now, a company from Winnipeg, Ukraine, ordered some sniping rifles from that company. But that's the extent of our military equipment assistance at this point. We have 200 Canadian forces personnel being trained or training Ukraine military. But again, there's plans in place in the event of an invasion that those troops will be evacuated. So it's not like it's not like they're going to stand and fight because, you know, they're a training mission. So essentially, if there is an incursion by Russia, our troops will leave. That's correct. Yeah, you know, it's interesting. How has the Canadian government been positioning

its involvement in Ukraine domestically? Well, it's very important from a domestic point of view, both for, you know, the Conservatives when this uh ukraine mission and and the liberals uh canada has a extremely large ukrainian canadian population that is very politically active so any government has to show that it is appearing to do something to support Ukraine. Let me zoom out here a little bit and talk about what could potentially happen next. So you mentioned that Biden announced that he wasn't sending any more troops, and our troops are poised to pull out. What could conceivably happen if Russia does invade Ukraine? So both Canada and the United States and Western allies have said that they would impose extremely tough sanctions on Russia. Now, on Wednesday, Joe Biden made a slight mistake.

Well, some people say it's a big mistake when he said, you know, if Russia does a full scale invasion, they're going to they're going to face extreme sanctions. But if they only do a smaller incursion, then it won't be as bad. And that didn't go over too well in Ukraine. Today, the president of that country was not happy and said he wasn't happy that that type of language was used because it's almost like saying to Putin, if you want to have a small invasion, go ahead. The timing of Biden's words, though, couldn't have been worse, just as President Zelensky of Ukraine had addressed the nation appealing for calm.

This morning, Zelensky tweeted that there are no minor incursions, just as there are no minor casualties and little grief from the loss of loved ones. Biden walked that back on Thursday, right? Any assembled Russian units, he said, if any assembled Russian units move across the Ukrainian border, that is an invasion. But, you know, how much is the threat of economic sanctions going to influence Putin's thinking on this? Yeah, I mean, he's faced economic sanctions for years now and he's still continuing. He's still operating and hasn't prevented some of his actions. So, you know, you have to ask the question

whether sanctions are effective or not. In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization. Empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix.

I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household income? That's not a typo, 50%. That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. You know, David, it feels like we have been talking about Russia and Ukraine being on the brink of a full-out war that envelops all these other countries for years. And so I wonder if you could put this

moment into historical context for me. So, you know, I'm hearing parallels with the Cuban missile crisis, but how significant is all of this right now? Yeah, I mean, it's interesting parallels with the Cuban missile crisis. I mean, that was a situation where the United States felt directly threatened by Russian nuclear missiles in Cuba. This is certainly a different situation. It's serious. However, there's no indication the U.S. wants to get involved in another conflict. to get involved in another conflict. They just pulled out of Afghanistan because the American people are tired of fighting these wars on foreign soil.

So, you know, while the Cuban Missile Crisis aspect is sexy and that type of thing, I don't think it's at that same level. Okay. and that type of thing. I don't think it's at that same level. Okay. But if Russia does invade Ukraine, will NATO just stand for that? Yes, because NATO is under no obligation to defend Ukraine

because Ukraine isn't part of NATO. And that's why Putin doesn't want Ukraine to become part of NATO. Right. It why Putin doesn't want Ukraine to become part of NATO. Right. It limits, you know, what he can do in the future. So, you know, there's going to be sanctions, there'll be lots of lots of talk and lots of anger. But really, it's limiting in what what NATO allies can do. I mean, I think if there's an invasion, there's going to be pressure to send military aid of some kind,

for Canada to send military aid of some kind. You know, do we send troops to an active war zone with Russia? That may be a bridge too far on that. The other aspect is the Canadian forces has limited capabilities. You know, we're going to be heading into flood and fire, forest fire season. We're in the middle of a pandemic where, you know, military personnel have been helping out in that. Military personnel help out in the flooding season. Military personnel help out in the forest fire season. So Canada can't send troops to Ukraine to fight a Russian invasion. The U.S. isn't going to.

Britain is sending anti-tank weapons, but it's not like it's shipping, you know, a division of troops quickly to Ukraine in preparation for this, you know, to fight off this invasion. Okay. How likely do you think an invasion is? I think there is a sense on the ground, however, we're still not quite there, even though the White House is saying that the Russians could order an attack at any time. We were talking to one senior military analyst here earlier today who's saying, yes, look, there is lots of equipment in place or lots of tanks, lots of artillery and other key military equipment. But the troops still

aren't quite there. I mean, it's interesting. I mean, that, you know, Biden has said, you know, it all depends on what Putin's thinking that day. And Prime Minister Trudeau has suggested the same thing. It's all, you know, Putin is in the driver's seat. He's got everything in place to go if he needs to, or within the next couple of weeks there. So, you know, we're going to see. It's all, like I said, Putin's in the driver's seat on this. Okay. All right, David, thank you so much for this. Yeah, no problem. Thank you. All right, now over to Eilish for a quick chat about how this is playing out in Ukraine and Russia. Eilish is news editor Meduza. Meduza is an investigative

news site that posts in Russian and English. It's one of the most read publications in Russia. And it was recently labeled a foreign agent by the Kremlin. We are reaching Eilish in Halifax, where she is currently based. Hi, Eilish. Thanks for having me. Thank you so much for coming on to the podcast. So how is this all playing out in Russia? I think for regular Russians, this is kind of more on their radar in the economic sense. If you look at public opinion polling in Russia right now, economic concerns are really top of everyone's agenda. You know, this week, Russia has already felt some of the economic

fallout from how the initial talks in the first week of January went. Russian officials spoke to Washington, they spoke to NATO, they spoke to the OSCE, and they came out of it, you know, sort of saying, this wasn't what we expected, Things fell flat. And almost immediately, there was like a reflection in markets, right? You've got foreign investors starting to pull out. The ruble took a dip. And oil prices are high, but they're not necessarily high enough to make up for some of the economic fallout that, you know, could potentially be very severe given the type of sanctions that Western officials are floating here. And then, you know, on top of that, the West has made it very clear that the main consequence for Russia in the event of an invasion of Ukraine will be

more severe economic sanctions than anything they've ever seen before. And that's something that would inevitably impact, you know, not just Putin and his inner circle, but also the Russian population as a whole. And I think for the Russian population, like the economic consequences of this are, are more so what they're immediately concerned about. And what about in Ukraine? In Ukraine, things are very different. You know, the war in the Donbass has been going on for eight years now.

Ukrainians have been living with this war. They've been living through this war. And so, you know, the prospect of conflict in Ukraine isn't a prospect for them. It's a reality. You know, there are thousands of Ukrainians who are living in an active war zone. I mean, just a couple hours before Biden gave his address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky released a video statement where he said, you know, this war has been going on for eight years. And, you know, the best thing to do right now is just kind of keep calm. And he tried to sort of assure everyone that everything was under control. Anxieties have seemed to be a little higher this week, but it's not so much, you know, people panicking.

Like, I think panic is not the right word here. It's more, you know, people are starting to get a sense that perhaps they should be more anxious than they have been. You have some people, you know, preparing like go bags and making plans in the event of an invasion. But you know, like, this war has been going on for so long that it's very much part of everyday life for a lot of Ukrainians. And so, you know, one question we talked with David about how the West has been providing a lot of training in the Ukraine. Countries have been supplying weapons. And do you think that this will have an impact? Basically, will Ukrainians be able to put up a fight there? And Ukrainians have made it very clear that they, you know, they plan to defend their country and they're going to put up a fight. So I think, you know, even if it is going to be not an even matchup, like the will and kind of the heart to defend Ukraine is definitely there. The Ukrainian military has improved significantly since 2014, you know, in part

with the help of countries like Canada who have provided training and military assistance. But, you know, the Russian military has also developed a lot since 2014. So you're still sort of comparing apples and oranges here. I don't think we should kind of underplay the consequences that this could have. I mean, we'd be looking at, you know, tens of thousands of casualties. And especially if it's, full-scale invasion, like urban warfare is, it's messy and it's definitely not, you know, a situation where anyone's going to come away unscathed. Okay. Eilish, thank you so much for this. Thank you. Thanks for having me.

All right, that is all for this week. Front Burner is brought to you by CBC News and CBC Podcasts. Our producers are Simi Bassi, Imogen Burchard, Ali Janes, Katie Toth, and Derek Vanderwyk. Our sound design this week was by Mackenzie Cameron and Nooruddin Karane. Joseph Chabison wrote our music. The executive producer of FrontBurner is Nick McKay-Blocos. And I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening, and we'll talk to you on Monday. Thank you.

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