Front Burner - The battle for green voters begins

Episode Date: July 17, 2019

With three months to go before the federal election, two parties on the left are trying to plant their flag as the party of environmentalists. The NDP recently introduced its "Canadian New Deal" which promises aggressive carbon targets and investments in energy efficiency. Meanwhile, the Green Party is surging in the polls, with its promise to double Canada's emission reduction targets. With the two parties battling for green voters on the left, analysts are beginning to wonder if there's room for both parties to thrive. Althia Raj is the Ottawa bureau chief for the Huffington Post. She's been speaking to voters in British Columbia about which party should get the environmentalist vote this fall.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. In the fall of 1998, an elderly woman known as the Cat Lady went missing. In the fall of 1998, an elderly woman known as the Cat Lady went missing. She had a very distinctive silhouette and very recognizable when you'd see her walking into town. A handkerchief on her hair, long overcoat, like somebody that lived on the street.

All police could find were her 30 cats shot dead. I always knew something had happened to her, to just vanish like that. Uncover the Cat Lady Case from CBC Podcasts is available now. Hi, I'm Michelle Shepard in for Jamie Poisson. The Canadian election is three months away, and the fight for the Green vote is on. Last month, we shared our plan to fight climate change while also creating 300,000 new, good, clean jobs. That's Jagmeet Singh preaching the NDP's platform of a Green New Deal. But what about the Green Party? Well, their popularity is surging.

They're winning seats in provincial elections, and now they've caught up to the NDP in the polls. Some might think it's mission impossible to do what's required. But we have crunched the numbers. It's mission possible. We can do it. So here we have two parties fighting for the same green turf in the next election. Is there room for them both? Maybe they should think about cooperating or are mergers in the mix?

Althea Raj has been talking to voters in BC this week for the Huffington Post. Voters there are trying to figure out who to support in this crowded field. This is FrontBurner. This is FrontBurner. Thanks so much for joining us this morning, Althea. Thank you for having me. Let's start with where you are right now in BC. And you're out with the candidates and you're talking to voters. What are you hearing from them?

There's a great deal of disenchantment with the Liberal government, whether you're speaking to people on the right of the political spectrum or people on the left of the political spectrum. A lot of people in 2015, I think it's fair to say, lent the Liberal Party their vote. They really wanted to get rid of Stephen Harper. A Liberal majority government. Who thought they'd be saying that just two months ago? The Conservatives, you look at that 32% nationally, they really dropped back in Atlantic Canada. On the left side of the political spectrum, you have voters who would describe themselves, I think, as progressives, who believed in the Liberal Party's message. They were interested in the Liberal Party's centre-left platform.

A lot of New Democrats lent the Liberals their vote. The 2015 election will be the last using first past the post. The environment and the economy, they go together like paddles and canoes. Sunny ways, my friends. So those people, though, now are looking at the Liberals' record, and they are either really unhappy about electoral reform or on climate. And climate is a really big issue. They feel the Liberal government has let them down. The Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion is a vital strategic interest to Canada. It will be built.

If you believe in the IPCC report, this is the UN report that came out last fall, that says that we basically only have 12 years to avoid catastrophic climate change, then you probably are trying to square a carbon tax with buying a pipeline. And a lot of those voters, NDP and potential Greens, are saying we don't want to vote Liberal again. I'm intrigued that a lot of this seems to have benefit the Green Party, obviously, the one that's been most advocating for environmental reforms. And it feels like there's this rise that they've been across the country, that they've been winning provincial seats. Can you give us a bit of a recap of where they're at and what you think they've accomplished capitalizing on this movement right now?

been right now. In some ways, I guess you could argue that what we are seeing now is kind of the orange wave that seemed to be building in the lead up to the 2015 election in the sense that Rachel Notley's government in Alberta had been elected. Friends, I believe that change has finally come to Alberta. The NDP federally were ecstatic and it seemed like the option for change, the anti-Harper option, was galvanizing around the NDP. Of course, we know that's not what happened. The NDP, they're well under 20%. They're back to where they used to be pre-2011 days. But the Greens seem to have momentum on their side.

They've elected Greens in many parts of the country. Of course, in B.C. here, they hold the balance of power. They're in a coalition government with John Horgan's NDP government. The Green Party announced it would back the New Democrats in the legislature, paving the way for an end to 16 years of liberal rule. Most recently were the official opposition in Prince Edward Island. There are Greens in New Brunswick. Going back to the legislature with a caucus of Green MLAs, we will be shaking things up. And the Greens elected an MPP in Guelph in Ontario.

I'm ready to take my seat at Queen's Park. So there seems to be across the country, provincially, the Greens are making inroads. I was going to say, do you think that'll carry over federally, though? Eventually, the Greens are making inroads. I was going to say, do you think that'll carry over federally, though? Well, what it does help the party, what the federal party is hoping that they can benefit from, is focused areas of strength. So there are opportunities for the Greens, perhaps more than ever before. And we see in polling that they're doing much better than they ever have, frankly. They're raising more money than they ever have, frankly. They're raising

more money than they ever have. But I want to add like an asterisk. While we're saying all these wonderful things about the Greens, the NDP, when they were basically at the same fundraising level and at the same area of polling, we were saying that the NDP was on its deathbed and boy, was it ever trouble for the NDP. So take that with a grain of salt, right? Like they're doing a lot better than they ever have, but there is no majority green government in the polls here. Right, right. How close are the two parties? The greens are obviously up in the polls, the NDP are down, but are they running neck and neck? I mean, what's the real competition there? Well, it depends which poll you look at, Michelle.

competition there? Well, it depends which poll you look at, Michelle. So just earlier this week, the Nanos Research Poll had the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 8%, whereas the Angus Reid had the NDP at 14% and the Greens at 10%. I mean, basically, what we're looking at are trend lines. The Greens are polling far above what their normal good year, 7, 8 percent. They've been in the double digits, which is kind of unheard of. And the NDP has been in some polls as low as single digits. They are close and they're fighting for voters who tend to be quite similar. So it's fair to see that there's some cannibalizing going on here. What is happening with the NDP?

The same indicators that suggest that the Greens are doing well suggest that the NDP are doing badly. I mean, that's kind of like the bad media spin. I'm sure New Democrats are really frustrated with journalists who are suggesting that. You're losing seats six months out. That has to worry you. Not at all. I mean, there's things that we can learn from by elections, but the only election that counts in this is a general election. But, you know, like the NDP in the last quarter of 2015, when they kind of like ramp up their spending, they pulled in close to $2 million, of 2015, when they kind of like ramp up their spending, they pulled in close to $2 million, $1.97 million, I think it was. The Greens pulled in $1.5 million. And then we wrote about how like, oh, this was like a breakthrough for the Greens because they'd never raised this much money.

Whereas like the NDP is in trouble. We don't actually have a clear sense of what their financial picture is because they have not given their annual report for 2018 to Elections Canada. They were granted an extension. But what the party has told me is that they are still generally spending more money than they're bringing in. When their report will be released, it will show that they are a little over $2.6 million in debt. They still owe that money from the 2015 campaign. They've had to remortgage, well, mortgage, actually, the building. Basically, unions gave them money before we changed the election rules in 2004. And they purchased this building downtown, which they've had to put up as collateral to get a loan for this next election campaign. Things are not going well. They're not engaging in

fundraising at the same level as other political parties. The NDP spin on that is that, oh, we're different. That being said, you know, when the only fundraiser you've had, a typical ticketed fundraiser has been for $25, whereas, you know, Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer are doing $1,600 fundraisers. In an election year, you probably do want to raise as much money as you possibly can. And I know we went to, before coming on, we went to the website to see when the next fundraising event was for the NDP,

and it just simply says there are no fundraising events planned. Beyond what they say, that they're not about this, they don't want to do it that way, there has to be more behind that as to why there's no effort for fundraising. What did you find out? Well, I mean, the party does not want to say

how many fundraising events the leader has taken part in no effort for fundraising. What did you find out? Well, I mean, the party does not want to say how many fundraising events the leader has taken part in since he became leader on October 1st, 2017. There isn't that much data that one can look at to see how much money they're actually pulling in, but they're not raising that much money. They say that what happens at some NDP events is they will ask people for donations when you have like a group meeting or whatnot. Like I was at Sven Robinson, who's the former MP, now a candidate in Burnaby North Seymour, his campaign launch. And they did like an open call, like who can give us $1,000? And who can give us $800? And well, there were a few hands, but you know, when they got to

$100, quite a few hands went up. So, you know, fundraising is done in different ways. But the overall health of the party and really the fact that they had to put the building up as collateral and that they're still paying off their 2015 campaign debt. There were rumors running around Ottawa that the NDP wasn't even going to have a regular leaders campaign, that they weren't going to charter a plane. And the party was really quick to put those rumors to rest. No, no, we will have an official campaign, but those things are really expensive. And that's, you know, one of the reasons why they need to go to the bank and say, hey, we need some more money. And then you have, you know, the fact that a quarter of the caucus, at least a quarter of the caucus is not running again. So there is a lack of incumbency advantage. And you have a leader that, frankly, is really unpopular.

You know, it's really not, things are not going well for the NDP. Well, in fact, Thomas Mulcair, the previous leader of the NDP, said on TV that he thinks progressive voters may abandon his party for the Greens. Mr. Singh has now decided he's going to support a liquefied natural gas pipeline. So people who believe that environmental issues should be top of mind are worried about what type of society and world we're going to leave to our children and our grandchildren. They're going to start paying attention to Elizabeth May's Green Party. Thomas Mulcair, I think, has an axe to grind at the moment with the NDP. He's a little bit bitter. Well, yeah, I mean, no political leader

ever in Canadian history was, like, beheaded the way politically that he was with getting 48% of support. 52% plus have said they want a leadership convention. I've got to tell you that at times it kind of felt like a public hanging. The disappointment from the election, obviously,

is something that we're now going to be able to leave behind us with a change at the helm. And that's fine. And I think a lot of people in the NDP are actually having buyer's remorse. They were really upset that the NDP ran a campaign that was seen as being to the right of the liberals in the last election. And so I think Mr. Mel Carwell, sometimes he makes really great points, does have a little bit of an agenda, and I think we need to look at that from that angle. That being said, I think it is possible if voters in droves who are unhappy with the NDP

leader, and just tired or don't see a reason to vote NDP in their writings, they may vote green. I think the greens also have, they're not just seen as an option for new Democrats. But, you know, I've met a bunch of conservative voters who told me that they think they're going to vote green this time, that they voted liberal in 2015 just because they want to get rid of Harper. They're more to the right. But, hey, why not give Elizabeth May a chance? So as a strategy, if the NDP is recognizing that Jagmeet Singh is not their most popular leader, is part of their strategy to go after the Green Party in a way that we are watching this rise of the Green Party and perhaps the NDP is looking at it as pulling votes away from them?

I think it was Chantal Hébert in the Toronto Star, at it as pulling votes away from them. I think with Chantal Hébert in the Toronto Star, she wrote that it was the rise of the Green Party that she sees as a mortal threat to the NDP. CHANTAL Hébert I think you can clearly see that the NDP is struggling not to be in contention for government as it was in the last election, but to hold on enough seats to retain official party status in the House of Commons and not let the Greens become the so-called Green conscience of the House of Commons. Do you think that's fair? Absolutely. I think, especially like I've been in BC for about two weeks now, and you can sense it just speaking to the candidates,

how they fear that the threat to them comes from the Green. There is a lot of overlap between the two political parties. If you think that the IPCC report is like a call for change that really need to take bold action, when you look at both parties' platforms are actually quite similar. They both suggest federal government action that would try to get us to a 1.5 degree Celsius warming rather than the trajectory that we're on at the moment, with big, bold change. All experts have made it clear

the future energy source for our planet cannot be fossil fuels. It has to be renewable energy. We start with the essential step of making sure that all the electricity we use comes from renewable energy. You know, the Greens platform is far more detailed than the NDP platform, but the NDP's message at the door is, well, we need to do big, bold action, but we also can't forget workers, which obviously resonates with a lot of new Democrat voters. But there is definitely a sense that the two parties are kind of cannibalizing each other. I'd say the NDP has

become far more aggressive in attacking the Greens, not just in what the candidates are saying, but also in terms of their social media presence. Like you've had a couple of NDP MPs take a go at Elizabeth May for when she talked about Canada being energy independent. As we move off fossil fuels, we should only be using Canadian fossil fuels till 2050. The New Democrats are suggesting that, oh, that means building a new pipeline to eastern Canada, which obviously is very unpopular in Quebec, and that the Green Party leader in Quebec came out and said, hey, I don't support this. I think that it's very important for Greens all across Canada to take a clear position against the Alberta tar sands. It's an oil that comes out of there that is much more greenhouse gas

emission intensive than conventional oil. Elizabeth May has since changed what she's saying on that to say, oh, no, we don't need to use Alberta oil. We can use the Newfoundlands oil from Hibernia to make us energy dependent out east. But there's definitely a sense that the two parties are more aggressive towards each other, especially from the NDP being more aggressive with regards to the Greens. And the NDP not only has to watch its left flank to make sure that the Greens are not coming up in certain ridings, but also across the country where it's possible voters decide that they're going to give something else a try. But is there room for both of these parties? that they're going to give something else a try. But is there room for both of these parties?

You know, you see in various op-eds and columnists have been talking about even having a merger between the two or candidates run strategically. But in practice, that's really not what we're seeing. It's they're digging in and going after each other. Where do you think that's going to go? Well, it could go to help elect a conservative government, which is what the conservatives certainly are hoping for. Like, why wouldn't they do that? It doesn't seem like a discussion that's being had between the groups.

No, they're not. I mean, at the moment, it's probably too early to have a discussion on the left about merging these two parties. The partisans in the NDP and the Greens will argue they are very, very different. New Democrats will say that the Greens are not socially progressive enough, that they're actually rather conservative. They will point to Elizabeth May working with Brian Mulroney in the 80s. What Mr. Mulroney accomplished for us was huge. Elizabeth is a Christian.

Her earlier comments on abortion or that she's not LGBTQ friendly enough. I've talked women out of having abortions. I have never had an abortion myself, not in a million years. I mean, I think that the Greens have demonstrated that they are that, that they are committed to women's rights and LGBTQ rights. So women must have access to legal, safe abortions whenever a woman needs one. But those are basically the areas of attack from the NDP. The Greens think that the NDP is not going far enough and that they're the only party that really has a plan to eliminate fossil fuels completely, that their targets are much bolder,

that they have a detailed plan that is feasible. I mean, that they will work. And part of the Green ethos is that they will work with other political parties like the New Democrats. Elizabeth May talks about building a war cabinet to address climate change, bringing in members of all political parties to kind of focus attention on this one crisis that she believes the country needs to be obsessed with to the point where, you know, our single mission is to make sure that, in her words, humanity survives and the Greens have a plan to get us there. So can they merge? At the moment, no. I mean, even when you raise that with New Democrat candidates and Green candidates, that they think the public will elect them. Everybody thinks that they're going to win, right? That the public will elect them and then they will be able to influence the debate. Maybe it's not a majority government.

Maybe it's not even a government, but maybe it's the balance of power. Maybe they can change the way that, what the liberals' climate policies are. I mean, at the end of the day, there are two parties who on this issue really resemble each other. And this is an unfair question because I know it's so difficult to predict, but with three months to go, do you see any big game changer,

any dramatic shocker that's going to come and really change the terrain? Oh, I have no idea. I mean, three months before the 2015 election, you know, who had heard of like Alan Kurdi? Who had heard of who thought that the NECAB decision was going to send the NDP's campaign kind of in a tailwind in Quebec? We don't know what's going to happen. Meng is like a total rock star and he knocks it out of the part in the debate and people take a second look. Maybe Elizabeth May, you know, lands a really vicious attack against the prime minister. And people, you know, give new consideration to voting liberals and think maybe maybe this is the year to give it to the Greens. Maybe Andrew Scheer surprises everybody and comes out with a much stronger climate plan and has all these. Probably not. But, you know, like you like you never know what's going to happen.

We could be talking about a completely different issue in three months. Well, thank you, Althea, so much. We'll continue to watch your reporting leading up to election. Thanks, Michelle. It was a pleasure. The Liberal Party was also out talking up its environmental cred this week. They announced Stephen Gubo would be running for them in Montreal. Gubo worked for Greenpeace for 10 years and was an anti-pipeline activist, which might seem like a weird fit given that the Liberal government bought a pipeline. Gibault says he thinks he can do more to fight climate change by working inside the party. For me, the decision to jump into the

political arena is a logical conclusion of 25 years of engagement. That's all for today. I'm Michelle Shepard. Thanks for listening to FrontBurner. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts. It's 2011 and the Arab Spring is raging. A lesbian activist in Syria starts a blog. She names it Gay Girl in Damascus. Am I crazy? Maybe. As her profile grows, so does the danger.

The object of the email was, please read this while sitting down. It's like a genie came out of the bottle and you can't put it back. Gay Girl Gone. Available now.