Front Burner - The day Trudeau faced a Liberal revolt

Episode Date: October 24, 2024

Justin Trudeau is facing arguably his biggest political crisis. Some two dozen of his own MPs have signed a letter calling on him to step down as leader of the Liberal Party. After a three-hour caucus meeting in Ottawa on Wednesday, Trudeau said his party is "strong and united" — words echoed by other Liberals throughout the day.But are they? Political reporter and author Stephen Maher breaks down the growing tensions within the Liberal Party over Trudeau's leadership and just how numbered his days as party leader might be.For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Jamie Poisson. Justin Trudeau is facing an unprecedented moment in his political life. He's up against a hostile and popular opposition party way ahead in the polls and clamoring for an election. Just 15% of Canadians think Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected. That's according to Abacus data polling that was released last week.

Let me say that again. 15%. And on Wednesday, over a three-and-a-half-hour caucus meeting, he was presented with a letter signed by two dozen Liberal MPs asking him to step down by the end of the month. Let's get right into it here. Stephen Maher is with me today. Well, I'm going to be able to explain everything very clearly. Okay, let's start, or let's try to start, by talking about what actually happened today in this caucus meeting. Lots of chatter leading up to this, but after the MPs and Trudeau actually walked into the meeting, what do we know about what happened? But the caveat that of course it was closed doors, so we might not know everything.

No, we don't. We definitely don't know everything, but, and I'm relying on second and third hand whispers and gossip, but it appears that about 50 members of parliament, liberal members of parliament, spoke each for about two minutes. About half of them said that they thought Justin Trudeau should not be leader of the Liberal Party anymore, and the other half think that he should or had some other kind of less clear message. Mr. Trudeau apparently did not make a strenuous case for his continued leadership. He mostly just listened. And then he left.

Eventually, they all left. The meeting ended and Trudeau came out and said, Right. And then he just walked away. And then he walked away. And just tell me more about this letter that I understand was read aloud at some point during the meeting. What do we know about what was actually in it? Well, one thing that's very interesting, I think, and significant is that they are saying they want the prime minister to stop leading the

liberal party and make way for someone else and they want him to do something about that by next week by October 28th so they are not saying eventually we want uh to have some kind of change and we think you need to shake up your people around you and give us better campaign plans. Members of the Liberal caucus were saying that kind of thing in the spring when the party lost the by-election in Toronto-St. Paul's. Now these people, 24 MPs or thereabouts, are saying, we think you have to go. And did they say, yeah, did they say what could happen after October 28th if he doesn't go? was a MacDonald, Ken MacDonald from Avalon in Newfoundland, who is not running again and who has called for Trudeau to leave.

He said they could think about not voting with the government on confidence votes. Right now, that's something I would have to consider, but right now it's not something I'd do. But is that an option? It is an option. It's an option for everybody every day that there's an opposition motion or any motion in the House. But if you're unhappy, isn't that a tool? Well, it is a tool, yes. But will it get the attention of the Prime Minister? I don't know.

Are you feeling any pressure behind the scenes? I'm also told that there is talk about having them sit separately and finally sort of going public. Right. finally sort of going public. There are processes underway that could lead to grassroots appeals for Mr. Trudeau to go from executives and writing associations and that kind of thing. So there's, it appears that there is a secret plan to keep up the pressure. 24, the fact that 24 signed it, like it, is that a lot? There are 153 members of parliament.

There are 38 members of cabinet. There are 38 parliamentary secretaries and about 24 committee chairs and a handful of house officers, something like that. So of the 153 Liberal members of Parliament, there's only about 50 backbenchers. So that's half of the actual backbench. Presumably, the people who are in cabinet or parliamentary secretaries, or committee chairs, or, you know, they all receive extra pay and privileges of various sorts. So the actual number of people who are not part of the parliamentary list is not that big, and that's half of them.

Okay. And just to be clear, do we know who these 24 are? I know there have been a few that have come out and said that they signed the letter. But do we know who the majority of them are? Does the prime minister know who they are? Well, presumably he would know after today because they would have spoken. I know some of them. In general, I'm not going to start going through names because what if I'm wrong? It hasn't been confirmed. And it's confusing because some of the people who have spoken publicly have said, well, I didn't sign the letter, but I think he should go.

So it's not entirely clear, but we know some names of some people. You said that the way you had heard about what happened in the meeting today was that there was a sort of 50-50 split from the people who spoke. from the people who spoke. Do you have a sense of whether that's an accurate representation of how all of caucus actually feels? Like, are they more or less 50-50 divided here on whether or not he should stay or go? If we did a secret vote of all 150 of them tomorrow. Do you have a sense of what might come of that? No, and it's really hard to know because certainly the people in cabinet, you know, if they lack confidence in the prime minister, they ought to resign from cabinet immediately, right? Cabinet solidarity depends on them supporting the prime minister and if they do that they will lose their cars and drivers and extra pay and so on and

they're you know all the other perks and pleasant things that go with being a cabinet minister so it's it's really hard to know and that and that part of the dynamic, when I talk to liberals behind the scenes about what's going to happen next, that the idea of offering cabinet seats to backbenchers, there's four or five vacancies in cabinet. The prime minister is going to be appointing people into those roles. So even the group of people who are not now part of that club might like to join it. The benefits to be gained from changing leaders are uncertain and distant. The benefits from sucking up to him and getting into cabinet are immediate and palpable, right? So that's sort of the dynamic. But just to push back on that, you know, like, what about the argument, like, sure, maybe you could get into cabinet, but the polls are really

looking like you're going to lose your job in about six months. So what about that risk? I mean, these are stunning poll numbers. 15% of people think that Trudeau and the liberals deserve to be reelected in this country so what about that risk yeah no it seems fairly serious i talked to someone uh an hour ago was out door knocking in nova scotia for the provincial liberals and they realized after knocking on a half dozen doors that they had to start pointing out very carefully that they're door knocking for provincial liberals because everyone just just says, oh, liberals, Trudeau, get out of here. And this is Halifax, a traditionally a friendly area for liberals. It's not just the polls, it's the mood in the

country. For whatever reason, people are ready for Mr. Trudeau to move on and his sort of continued insistence that only he can play the role of leading the liberals into the next election. In a way, I think it sort of confirms what people find somewhat irritating about him, a sense of entitlement, a sense of narcissism or something. It seems to kind of confirm the things that people have grown tired of. So it seems pretty clear that that's bad for the liberals going into the next election. And further, it seems like the conservatives have all kinds of excellent plans to turn the next election into a referendum on getting rid of Justin Trudeau, that they will win. On the downside, though, and I speak to,

you know, on a wall this week and talking to some very well-connected liberals, and they say, well, yeah, no, you should go. But who have we got? It could be worse. Could it? I guess that's really my question. Could it be worse? Could literally anybody be better than this? It seems very, very bad. I guess that's really the question that I have. No, I think that too. I think it's terrible. And also, how do you really know? How did you really know? Because people said this when everybody was talking about Biden as well, right? Like, how do you really know if there's how people feel about an alternative when he's still there. Like,

how can you say for sure? Well, and the Biden comparison, of course, is very pertinent. The U.S. election, some dialed-in liberals think that Trudeau wants to hang around until the U.S. election, that the re-election of Trump may be an event significant and calamitous and challenging enough that it will open a window for him to deliver a message to Canada that may move his poll numbers. It's the one thing where there's a glimmer of hope for the liberals because he did a good job managing Trump last time. You know, if you're in the faint hope last ditch bunker with Trudeau and his small group of palace guard, that's something you can hope for.

That's something ahead that you might think, well, that could change things. Do you think that that is what they're doing right now? Or, you know, maybe put another way, you interviewed, I don't know what, like 200 people for your book about Trudeau. And I feel like you're as good a person to ask as any what he is really thinking right now. What do you think all the things are that he's, what do you think he's weighing here? What is really going through his head? Well, one of the things I learned from interviewing more than 200 people and researching him is that he's very, very hard to read.

He has been the subject of scrutiny, unusually intense scrutiny since childhood. He has carefully studied the art and craft of political presentation. the art and craft of political presentation. So, the vast majority of the time, what we get from Justin Trudeau is what he intends us to get from him. He wears a mask, and there are moments where he sort of allows himself to show what he really thinks about things, but not on this kind of subject. He's unreadable. There are sort of two contrasting ways of thinking about his character in this situation. One is a sort of admirable sense in which he's a fighter who never gives up, even when he's on the ropes or has been knocked down. He's got this tremendous will to power, a profound confidence. He's more confident than anyone you've ever met in your life.

And then there's a sort of more negative side of that, in that people who work with him and know him well believe him to be narcissistic, to have convinced himself that only he is able to lead this country, which he feels in his bones, and that the idea of losing the public position and being driven away from the leadership role would be hard on his ego, that he wants to continue to sort of enjoy his reflection and allow Canadians to keep basking in his presence. Right. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization. Empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections.

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financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Cups. Who around him would have his ear right now? Who is his inner circle? Do we have any sense of where they are on this? Well, the chief of staff, Katie Telford, who's been with him since 2012, 2013, when he decided to run for the leadership brian cloud deputy chief of staff and ben chin so these are the people that you know liberals say to me nobody thinks he should be prime minister anymore except for katie ben and brian there's obviously more people than that who are paid to watch his back and strong arm caucus members. But that's the core group there in cabinet. The key people would be Mark Miller and Dominic LeBlanc, Chrystia Freeland. I am so convinced that what's happening, good news on inflation, the good news on interest rates is

overwhelmingly the important thing for Canada and Canadians. Mark Miller went out yesterday and said, Any minute spent on this garbage is a minute that's not spent on Pierre Pauliev and what he wants to do to this country. And I think that's very dangerous. I think they had to send the signal, or they felt they had to send a signal that they were going into that caucus meeting to fight for his leadership. He was criticized during the caucus meeting for using that kind of language, and he was much more conciliatory afterwards. You know, I am quite proud of my colleagues, whether I agree with them or not, because they were frank, they were honest, and they spoke with their hearts. What did that tell you?

Well, they told him we don't appreciate that. And to be clear, something I want to say, these members of parliament who are calling for him to step down, I see commentators saying, oh, they're cowards, they should be coming out, or they're disloyal. Their job is to represent the views of their constituents. Their constituents are making it very plain that they've had enough of Justin Trudeau.

So it seems to me that they're just simply doing their jobs by going in and telling the prime minister, people are telling us it's time for you to go. I think it's useful to think about Sean Casey, who is the most recent caucus member to speak out publicly. And people have had enough. Sean Casey, who is the most recent caucus member to speak out publicly. And people have had enough. They've tuned him out and they want him to go.

I can't tell you the number of people that have said to me, Sean, I'm afraid of Polyev. I want to vote for you, but I can't. It's a longtime MP for Charlottetown and Prince Edward Island, a lawyer, a businessman. He is facing a competitor there, a guy named Doug Curry, who's a former liberal provincial cabinet minister who's running for the Tories. He's a high profile, good candidate. He's campaigned there with Pierre Polyev. Koliyev, by coming out as he did, Sean Casey, and saying he thinks Trudeau should go,

he is making it more difficult for himself to win that riding if Trudeau doesn't go. So, the kind of calculations that these people are making, it's easy to say they should be braver or more aggressive or more loyal, but they're in a tough position, in my opinion. Stephen, I just want to bring up with you today a rule of politics that Paul Wells, who I know you know well, talks about. You tweeted this today as well. And the rule is for any given situation, Canadian politics will tend toward the least exciting possible outcome. And given everything that we saw play out today, do you think that that is what's playing out? And, you know, where do you think that things are likely to go from here? It's really hard to know. I mean, the meeting ended with him saying the liberals are

strong and unified, which was kind of predictable. So it seemed to follow Wells' rule. He can't be prime minister forever, right? The country, it's pretty clear that people want him to move on to other challenges and want someone else to be prime minister. So at some point, he's going to have to go. It's getting increasingly hard for me to imagine, given what's happening in the caucus, other things that I am told are underway in the broader party that he's going to be able to keep everyone behind him until there's an election. That just, it starts to seem pretty strange, right? There comes a moment, as we saw with Joe Biden, where the people who want to get

rid of him are in a game of chicken where they're making it increasingly untenable. So, they can just crank up the pressure to make him miserable, to ruin their electoral prospect and his to the point where he decides it's time to go. But I'm getting two contradictory reports from people close to him. One source is saying, is saying oh no i think they're talking about it i think that he's come to accept this might be you know he's near the end in the beginning and i bounce that off someone else who said i'd assume you're being spun hard they're deep in bunker mode right now huh so you know what do you make of that? He is not going to show us his cards. It doesn't look like the rebels are going to back down.

I don't see how they can. Yeah. Because if they back down, they lose their, they think they're going to lose their seats and have to go back to practicing law or selling cars or whatever it is they did before they got these jobs and they don't want that, right? And they also don't want Pierre Polyev to have a sleigh ride into the most powerful office in the country. This is a part of the situation. Trudeau has been so unpopular for so long that Mr. Polyev, by being this sort of vehicle for opposition to Trudeau, has not had to tell us

very much about what he would like to do, has not faced a great deal of scrutiny, and he is up to 20 points ahead in the polls for ages. So it's, in general, it's better if elections pose somewhat more of a choice than that. Right, right. And it did seem that the one thing that they all agreed on today when they came out of that caucus meeting was the talking point that they should all be united against Polyev and the conservatives.

My colleagues need to turn the knives outwards and not inwards, and we need to focus on the most important thing, which is getting things done here in Parliament and taking the fight to Pierre Pauliette because he's a disaster for this country. Stephen, thank you for this. This is really interesting. And hopefully we're going to get the opportunity

to talk to you again really soon. I wish that some of my answers hadn't been so mushy, but it's hard to know for sure what's going to happen next. We love mushy over here. That's great. Thank you. Thanks a lot. All right.

That's all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you tomorrow.