Front Burner - The Democrats are in trouble

Episode Date: November 9, 2021

Less than 10 months into his presidency, Joe Biden’s popularity is plummeting, Democratic in-fighting has put some of the most ambitious parts of his agenda on life support, and recent elections in several states are spelling even more bad news for his party. Susan Ormiston joins us to take the pulse of the Democratic party.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Angela Starrett. It's reasonable to imagine that, as recently as this summer, U.S. President Joe Biden might have been in a fairly optimistic mood. Polling showed that at least a slim majority of Americans approved of how he was running things. And with Democrats controlling the House and the Senate,

there was a pathway for him to pass a historically bold agenda with ambitious plans to pull the country out of its economic slump, fight climate change, and hike taxes on corporations and on wealthy Americans. Everything in my plan is paid for. How?

By asking big corporations, the wealthiest Americans, to begin to finally start paying their fair share. My plan will do one more thing. It'll create millions of good-paying union jobs by dealing with the existential threat of climate change. Now, just a few months later, things are looking very different. Biden's popularity is lower than almost any other president at this point in their presidency. Infighting between Democrats and Congress has stalled his agenda and is threatening some of his most ambitious plans for change. And last week's elections in several states spelled even more bad news for his party. Today, I'm speaking with CBC Washington

correspondent Susan Ormiston about how the Democrats got here and what this could all mean for next year's midterm elections. Hello Susan. Hi there. So I mean to get a sense of just how dreary things are for the Democrats right now, I think we need to start last Tuesday when there were state legislative elections in many parts of the country. And I know that the results in Virginia and New Jersey in particular were seen as very bad omens for the Democrats. is projecting that Republican Glenn Youngkin has been elected governor of Virginia, defeating Democrat Terry McAuliffe. Youngkin pulling off a... Yeah, the night of those elections, they're called the off year here. President Biden was actually winging his way back from Glasgow in that COP conference. And Americans were taking the temperature of his presidency. And wow, there was no warming climate politically.

It was decidedly chilly. The mood on Air Force One was described as grim, not only because Biden had just predicted a few hours ago that they would win Virginia, and they didn't. And why is that significant? Well, because Virginia is right on D.C.'s doorstep, of course, and it's been trending Democrat in the last few elections. Biden actually won it in the election a year ago against Trump by about 10 points. So for the Democrats to lose to a first-time Republican candidate for governor, even by just a few points, was a real omen, as you say, of tough times ahead. And not only did they lose the governor job, they lost the lieutenant governor, as they say here,

and also the attorney general. So top three state jobs went to the Republicans. So, you know, looking at that, Virginia showed that right-leaning independents will come out and vote Republican with Donald Trump not front and center. And what about New Jersey? What worries Democrats about the results there?

Well, in New Jersey, the Democrats squeaked through. The governor was reelected, but by a hair. And why that's important, it's a deeply blue state that's Democrat. So after that vote was finally tallied a few days later, you heard a lot of Democrats saying, we're listening. We heard the voters. We are retooling. And there ought to be a clear message to my party and all those who support it to get the job done. We've spent enough time talking, enough time thinking, and enough time suggesting to America that good things are coming.

You know, they realize that they got through by a smidgen and that the message they're sending is not one that Democrats are lapping up in New Jersey. And we know that part of what propelled Biden into the White House last year was those suburban voters. What did last week's election indicate about whether those voters are still with him right now? whether those voters are still with him right now. Yeah, that's that coveted group, isn't it, that Biden was quite successful with and helped him win the presidency. And the Republicans sort of flipped their votes. They didn't win all the districts, but they increased their support significantly. So, you know, consider a statistic like the Republicans won among white women by 14 points, whereas Trump in the election last year lost them by a point. So the message here may be that suburban votes is not locked in for Democrats. And on the rural vote, which is also important,

the Republicans picked up more strength, suggesting maybe that that momentum is more permanent, suggesting maybe that that momentum is more permanent, perhaps. So we're going to spend some time now breaking down why the Democrats may have not done well last week. So let's start first with what you've heard from voters on the ground. You know, ahead of the Virginia election, you spoke to people at a rally for the Republican candidate Greg Youngkin, who, of course, ended up winning. And I'm curious what impression you got from them about, you know, why Youngkin might appeal to voters. So families who were there, you know, they're frustrated by mask mandates, by school closures.

You know, they've had their kids trying to do geometry at the kitchen table for 18 months. And Youngkin, the candidate for the Republicans, was really selling grassroots politics. That's education and, you know, things like reducing their grocery tax. So bread and butter politics. Why do you think Youngkin is doing so well this time? I think it's all about education. I think he's tapped into something that Terry McAuliffe is just clueless about. And parents are pissed. Taxes on food, he wants to get rid of that. He wants to abolish

the teaching that's going on in school. He has morals. So they're looking at this new candidate. He's a business person, So they're looking at this new candidate. He's a business person, first timer, quite good speaker on the stage, looks attractive enough to them. And they're saying, wow, here's a conservative Republican that isn't Trumpy, or at least not true Trump. And we can vote for him. You know, Youngkin didn't invite Trump to campaign with him, and he managed to thread the needle between sounding Trumpy enough for the rural voters and not scaring the suburban voters who wanted to switch this election. So that was part of his winning strategy. And others are looking at that like maybe that's a template for the next election. And I guess meantime, you know, Joe Biden's personal popularity has also been plummeting. The latest numbers I've seen say that around 42 percent of Americans approve of the job he's doing, which is lower than any other president at this point in their presidency, except for Donald Trump. And so what have experts told you about why

Biden is so unpopular right now? So he struggled getting his plans executed. That's a big one. Now, in fairness, we should say that historically speaking, Trump and Obama's favorability rating also diminished when they were trying to get important bills through like Trump on taxes and Obamacare. And here we have Biden as well trying to get these two big spending bills through Congress. And all it is, seems to many Americans, is a bunch of fighting on Capitol Hill. Biden, he really ran on this message of, you know, we're going to fight for the soul of the nation. We're going to unify people. And people want to feel unified. They're really hungry for that. But they don't feel like they're seeing that message. They

see a bunch of Democrats fighting in Washington. And that doesn't give them any sense of forward momentum, not to mention. So I spoke to a woman named Sarah Longwell, and she does focus groups every week now talking to Democrats about what they're interested in, which way they're leaning. And here's what she said about Biden's challenge. All of the fighting in Washington, people do not know what's in these bills. They have no sense of what's in the infrastructure bill or the reconciliation package. They don't even know what reconciliation means or why there are these two bills. It's all very sort of jumbled and confusing and just gives them the general sense that nothing's happening. And, you know, earlier this summer, things were looking a

little bit more rosy. COVID was taking a bit of a pause. The economy was ticking up nicely. And then the Delta variant came in and reminded us all of how tenacious the pandemic is. And then, you know, we had Afghanistan. Here's a guy who campaigned on his foreign policy experience. And many people view the pullout from Afghanistan as a debacle. And, you know, it took headlines all summer in August. And so he took a hit from that. And I know one of the experts you interviewed talked about this thing called an enthusiasm gap. Can you tell me more about that?

Well, that's a nice way, you know, a politically correct way of saying that the Republican base is more fired up than the Democrats. There's more passion. It's the power of the vanquished, maybe. So a pollster at Monmouth University, Patrick Murray, we had a great chat and the poll clear that those infrastructure bills were kind of stuck in the mud. And that kind of sent Democrats to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization. Empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here.

You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people, and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household income? That's not a typo. 50%. That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples,

I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. And I want to talk more about something you were just mentioning that many voters feel that this administration isn't getting anything actually done. And this is, you know, really about, you alluded to it before, but this is really about two massive bills that are key to Biden's agenda, but that different factions within the Democratic Party have been fighting over for months. And now one of these bills did finally pass on Friday night, this $1 trillion infrastructure bill. Just before midnight, after months of delays and deliberation, House Democrats and 13 Republicans passed the bipartisan $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill.

Finally, infrastructure week. I'm so happy to say that. And I know that passing this was lauded as a big win for Biden. Have you gotten the impression from any of the people you've spoken to that this could help the Democrats rally at all? I think it's early. I mean, in America, we're now going into a season of selling BIF and negotiating BBB. That's the acronyms. B.I.F. is the infrastructure deal that you just mentioned. And, you know, finally passed through on Friday night, late, almost midnight. Too late for Virginia, I might add, but a win nonetheless.

And with Republican support. So you'll hear Democrats saying that. And, you know, we shouldn't minimize this bill. It's really potent politics. I mean, we're talking about $1 trillion over five years for things like bridges and roads, broadband, internet, clean water, rebuilding ports and airports. That's saleable. And as Biden puts it, it's a once-in-a-generation infusion of money and jobs that, by the way, Trump couldn't get through while he was in office. So this week, we're already seeing it. Democrats have been dispatched all over this country, and they've got something to sell, finally. So with the shock of Virginia like a dark shadow, they're finally on to a serious message.

They seem to have their communication plan in better shape. They've got something to sell and they're going to tell their constituents, here's what you're going to get. And then there's this other second, bigger bill that hasn't passed yet. It's really the most important part of Biden's agenda. This is known as the Build Back Better Act. We're going to put money directly into the pockets of American workers. How? By lowering the cost of child care and elder care. By making universal preschool reality. By lowering the cost of health care premiums for millions of Americans. By expanding Medicare coverage to include dental, vision, and hearing. By expanding the child tax credit and earned income tax credit. Altogether, these add up to thousands of dollars in savings each year for working families. And it's basically about social spending and fighting climate change.

But I think to really illustrate for people, you know, the kind of bind the Democrats are in right now, we need to talk about what's not in this bill anymore, because the initial version of the Build Back Better Act would have made good on a bunch of Biden's most ambitious campaign promises. You know, this big, very bold vision to pull the country out of a recession and take very serious action on climate change. But now this bill has been whittled down a lot. Can you tell me about some of the key items that have been taken out of it? Yeah, I mean, it's still ambitious in that Biden is trying to push America into more social spending, which he believes has been missing and is causing inequities and difficulties for many Americans. But you're quite right. The bill started at $3.5 trillion. It's even hard to

wrap your head around those kinds of figures. It's been cut back to $1.75 trillion because of opposition from people in his own party. So what got lost? Well, the clean electricity program, which would have rapidly replaced coal and gas-fired power plants with things like wind and solar and nuclear. There are other climate measures in place and a lot of money for them, but many experts say that this one that was cut out was a critical part. It doesn't tackle taxes in the way that Biden

and the builders originally envisioned. It's not raising income and corporate tax rates or toughening inheritance taxes, which they campaigned on. There are other measures in it still to raise taxes on the wealthy, but they're weakened. They drop plans for community college tuition, free, and other things. But, you know, things like paid family leave, it was in, then it was out. Now it's back in, but it went from 12 weeks to four weeks. It's very indicative of the whole process, which people here call sausage making. Before we go on, I want to note that polls have shown that a lot of those measures they scrapped are very popular with the American public. For example, raising taxes on corporations and on the wealthy or the clean energy program. And as a whole,

the original $3.5 trillion plan also pulled pretty well. So what's happening here? Why have Democrats ended up getting rid of so many of these plans? So you do have, of course, in the Democratic Party, you have conservatives, moderates and progressives. And on the conservative side is a guy, the West Virginian Democrat, Joe have conservatives, moderates, and progressives. And on the conservative side is a guy, the West Virginian Democrat, Joe Manchin, I'm sure you've heard of him, Senator. And he's really been holding the bill hostage for the last many weeks. Throughout the last three months, I've been straightforward about my concerns that I will not support a reconciliation package that expands social programs and irresponsibly adds to our $29 trillion in national debt

that no one seems to really care about or even talk about. Nor will I support a package that risks hurting American families suffering from historic inflation. Simply put, I will not support a bill that... He's from a coal state, and he wants different climate change initiatives. He also wants to see how much this is really going to cost. So he said, you know, I want another accounting. I want another bill. I want the, you know, the accountants to sharpen their pencils and tell me what it actually is going to cost. And he's also joined in his resistance by a Democrat senator from Arizona, Kyrsten Sinema. And so they are the backstop from this bill getting passed earlier. And so that's one of the things that's going on. And even if this social spending bill passes the House, which it hasn't yet, it has to get through that Senate.

And there you have Sinema and Manchin sitting there saying, hmm, not sure. And, you know, in the Senate, there's a 50-50 split with Kamala Harris, the vice president, breaking the tie. So the Democrats simply can't afford to lose a vote there. So that's still to be determined. And we know that part of Biden's strategy to win the presidency last year was to really unite all the different wings of the Democratic Party under one big tent. But what does this show us about the difficulties of actually governing with that kind of coalition? Well, it's tough. I mean, consider that the big bill we talked about, the infrastructure bill, Democrats are spinning like cotton candy this week. You know, even so, six of their own House members opposed it. And they took, they had to get 13 Republicans on their side to get that infrastructure bill through. to get that infrastructure bill through.

So those six members of the House, all members of the so-called squad, the progressives, the left side of the party, they said we're not supporting that, mainly because they want it tied to the social spending bill. They wanted infrastructure and social spending to go through at the same time, believing that would have more chance of success. So that's an example of how tough it is when he's got people within his own party saying, we're going in a different direction. It's also what people wondered about in the election campaign last year, whether Biden would be able to unite

the divergent factions within his party. And in the election, they were able to do that because they had a common enemy, Donald Trump. But now they're governing and now these groups want different things. So I'm wondering what happens now. We've noted that the Democrats have this very fragile majority in the Senate and their majority in the House isn't much bigger. And a year from now, lots of seats will be up for grabs in the midterm elections. I mean, you've touched on this already, but I'm wondering if you could tell me a bit more about what experts say all of this could mean for the Democrats in those midterms. So on Monday, it was a year to the day from the next test, big test, and that's the midterms in 2022. And the fear among Democrats is that they could lose control of the House and the Senate.

Fear among Democrats is that they could lose control of the House and the Senate. So you'd have a Democrat White House and a Republican Congress. Hugely difficult then for Biden to get things passed. In part, of course, why he's moving forward as fast as he can, which isn't very fast, to get these bills through this year. It's hard to predict what will happen, but certainly the Republicans are messaging that with the result like we saw in Virginia, going right back to where we started, Virginia's just the start, Kevin McCarthy said, the minority leader in the House. And so they're wringing their hands saying this is an indication that Biden has been tested and voters find him wanting. voters find him wanting. Polls are polls, but just a poll that came out Monday suggested, a new CNN poll suggested that if there were a midterm election, that 49% would still back Democrats versus 44% backing Republicans. But a year is a lifetime in politics, and that definitely could change. And do you have a sense from anyone you've spoken to about what Democrats would need at this point to turn things around?

Well, if you ask the pollsters, the politics and the pundits, they say that Democrats have to get their act together simply in the House and they have to message better. You know, one of the things they mentioned to me prior to the Virginia vote was, you know, there's been so much wrangling about these big bills. Americans couldn't tell you definitively what's in them and what's not. And they need to communicate that better to Americans if they want their support. I've heard as well this week that they are mounting a rural roadshow, if you like, that they're looking at those rural districts and say, we can't afford to bleed more votes there to the Republicans. And you can imagine the Republicans are doing the exact opposite. They are going out and drumming up, you know, using the results of these elections this past week and saying, we've got the momentum,

we're on the move and come back and support the Republicans going into 2022. So it's going to be super interesting. Susan, this has been really great. Thank you so much for your time today. You're welcome. And that's all for today. I'm Angela Starrett in for Jamie Boisson. Thanks so much for listening to FrontBurner. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.