Front Burner - The paths to Canadian election victory

Episode Date: September 11, 2019

The federal election campaign is set to kick off today, and so does our weekly election panel. Today on Front Burner, Power and Politics host Vassy Kapelos and CBC’s polling analyst, Éric Grenier.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. A little bit later this morning, Justin Trudeau is going to walk on over to the Governor General's residence and formally kick off the federal election. Which means we are kicking off our election coverage here. We've got lots of stuff planned. I'm really excited about it. Including a weekly election panel, a sort of one-stop shop for you to stay on top of election news that can be really

dizzying sometimes. It comes at you in such a fast pace. We've got some documentaries in the works and a thing where you can actually come on the show and get your election questions answered. But first... As we talked about last week, Vashika Pelos is going to do this panel with me every week. She's here today with Eric Grenier, CBC's poll analyst and host of the pollcast. And today, we're going to look at how these parties plan to break ahead to form the next federal government. And what might hold them back? I'm Jamie Poisson, and this is FrontBurner, the Paths to Victory edition.

Eric, Vashi, thank you so much for being here with me today. Hi, Jamie. Happy to be here. Hello. An election is going to be called. It's happening. It's real. Finally. Yes, finally. And I reckon you guys will have some very late nights ahead of you. I hope that you have good snacks in your

drawers. Yeah, we never have to worry about that with Vashie's team especially. Yeah, we eat like pigs. Yeah, I bake non-stop and we eat all the time. Oh, this is a really good pro tip for me to stop by. Eric protects quite often, I'm not going to lie.

Quite often. Amazing. Okay, so today we're going to do Paths to Victory. And Eric, I'm interested in how the parties are going to break ahead in this tight race. The liberals won pretty handily in the last federal election, but now we see that them and the conservatives are so close in the polls that they are literally tied, according to your last projection. And where do the liberals seem to be losing support this time around?

Well, they're down quite a bit in places like Atlantic Canada, places like in the West, in BC as well. They've dropped a little bit in Ontario. The only place they really haven't dropped support would be in Quebec. And I think that's why they're really leaning hard on Quebec. They want to make a lot of gains there, and they think they can. But they're in a good position considering how bad of a position they were in just a few months ago. Because when we were getting into the beginning of the summer, the Conservatives were up by five, six points over the Liberals. The Liberals had this negative momentum. Everything surrounding the SNC-Lavalin affair was just dragging down not only the popularity of Justin Trudeau, but of the Liberal Party itself. And it took all summer for them to get back to this tie.

And Vashi, like what reasons are you hearing for why people who voted Liberal last time might be looking elsewhere this time? I don't know. I think that actually the question is whether they'll look elsewhere or whether they just will stay home. So in the last election, there was a big constituency of voters who came out beyond, you know, what you would assume would be the base for the Liberals. And they were attracted by a lot of promises around electoral reform, about fighting the effects of climate change, about legalizing marijuana. There were sort of a lot of reasons, a lot of promises the Liberals doled out that would compel them to come out and vote. They were excited to vote for the Liberals. And there were a lot of them. And that really catapulted the Liberals into majority territory and healthy majority territory. The question for me is whether those that segment of voters will want to come out again, or are they going to go somewhere else? And that's, I think that will sort of feed like why are we seeing votes turn away from the liberals this time around?

Well, I think in British Columbia, it's particularly on the environmental issue that the liberals are maybe struggling a little bit. The pipeline is a pretty stark, stark demonstration that they can't give everything to environmentalists. Our government has newly approved the Trans Mountain expansion project going forward. So to those who want sustainable energy and a cleaner environment, know that I want that too. But in order to bridge the gap between where we are and where we're going, we need money to pay for it. So when you've seen that their support in British Columbia has dropped, that the Greens especially are doing pretty well in BC, it does give that indication that that's the kind of issue that might be sapping their strength there. But when you're seeing such a decrease in support

for the New Democrats, not only in BC, but really everywhere in the country, the Liberals could be in a position to win seats, even if they lose support because of just how far further the NDP might drop. So I think that might still be working in their favor in the calculations. And what's really going to make it really interesting, this whole campaign, just to see how this is going to move, because we're talking about the parties neck and neck and a lot of very, very close, very potentially three, four-way races across the country. And you just don't know what's going to happen out of that. And, you know, when we're talking about these three, four-way races across the country, and you just don't know what's going to happen out of that. And, you know, when we're talking about these three, four-way races across the country,

like, where are they happening, generally? A lot of them in Quebec. Quebec might have actually tons of four-way races. The Greens probably not going to be in the running in those four-way races, but you might have a lot of seats where the party that wins has less than 33% of the votes. You just have the electorates just divided across all these different parties, especially in these the francophone ridings between Montreal and Quebec City, because the liberals have a very good advantage in Montreal and the island of Montreal. And the conservatives are very strong in Quebec City. It's where those two regions kind of intersect in between, that you could see these really unpredictable races. And, I mean, things could change between now and October 21st, and they probably will, but, you know, it's really hard to predict at this stage.

Fashi, like, what's up with Quebec? Like, why? It's only I could answer that. You know, why are we seeing swaths of the province, like, essentially possible swing ridings, you know? Well, I'll boil it down to probably a way too simplistic answer that Eric, who's much smarter than me, can expand on. But it's the collapse of the NDP that is the big factor, right? That's prompting a lot of the sort of multi-way races, as well as the emphasis on

why Quebec is going to be so important. So the NDP's vote has pretty much collapsed in that province, and now it's a matter of who picks it up. And it's not like other provinces where you would assume, oh, the NDP is collapsing in Ontario, that vote will probably go to a more progressive party. There's a different calculation in Quebec because you've got the bloc, because you've got the liberals. And voters in Quebec just act differently.

You can't predict them as easily, and not to say you can predict other voters easily, but they're just more unpredictable than other provinces. So I think for me, the collapse of the NDP, if it is in fact collapsed in that province, is what lends itself to the competitive nature of so many ridings and in general, the significance of that province in any party's path to victory. So obviously, we're seeing these candidates concentrate on Quebec right now. Justin Trudeau is participating in two French language debates and only one English language debate. You know, what I'm curious about is how you guys think this is going to change their behavior.

Like, what kind of things are they saying that make you think that they are trying to appeal to Quebec? Fashi? It totally changes that. It informs the positions that various parties take. Take, for example, the Conservatives, where out West, they're going to be talking about pipelines and getting oil to markets. They're not going to be talking about that pipeline in Quebec. And my message both in Alberta and here in Quebec is we shouldn't be buying oil from the United States. We shouldn't be sending our consumer dollars to Donald Trump's economy. We shouldn't have oil coming in from Saudi Arabia in eastern refineries. We can be self-sufficient on energy.

The liberals, for example, I talked to someone in the war room just a few days ago. The reason that they're going so hard, one of the primary reasons they're going so hard on values issues that we've talked about so often, Jamie, abortion, same-sex marriage, is because they believe it plays for them really well in Quebec. That whole messaging, all of that messaging is aimed squarely at Quebec. It's not enough to reluctantly support the law because it's a law, especially when it comes to the rights of women and LGBTQ communities. People need to know that their prime minister will defend them, will be there for them. So it definitely, it almost like where they're concentrating, where they see their path to victory is really forming and helping to inform in a big way the types of issues that they're focusing on and the way that they're talking about them. And what about this very controversial secularism bill?

This bill that's been passed that does not allow public service employees to wear religious symbols, so like a hijab or a kippah. Eric, where are the parties following here? Well, they're being very careful about it because the bill is certainly controversial, but it's less controversial in Quebec. It's pretty widely supported in the province and particularly among francophones. So it makes it difficult for a lot of the federal parties to go too hard against it. We know that Justin Trudeau says he doesn't like it, but he's not saying that very loudly because he knows that that's the kind of thing that can

trip him up in Quebec. My government and I personally will always stand up to defend minority rights everywhere across Canada. We do not feel that it is a government's responsibility or in a government's interest to legislate on what people should be wearing. Whereas Jagmeet Singh and the New Democrats, they know things aren't going well in Quebec, so he can afford to be maybe a bit more honest on his position on that one. I think it's hurtful because I remember what it's like to grow up and not feel like I belong. And I think about all the young people in Quebec right now that won't be able to pursue maybe their dream job, that won't be able to become a police officer or a judge.

For the Conservatives, the kind of voters who might be motivated by this issue are the kind of voters who the Conservatives are targeting. So they also have to be very careful. At the same time, they also need, the Conservatives need to have the support of very diverse communities in the greater Vancouver, in the greater Toronto area. And so it's just a very tricky balancing act. I think a liberal society based on fundamental freedoms and openness must always protect fundamental individual rights and should not in any way impede people from expressing themselves. And we've seen in so many elections that one of the things that trips up parties is how do you talk to Quebecers while not saying something different to the rest of

the country? Because when you have a different message in English and in French, eventually people figure it out. Right. People do speak both languages here. You know, Vashie was talking about what the Liberals were doing vis-a-vis Quebec. What are you seeing the Conservatives doing when it comes to Quebec? Well, they understand that they are at a disadvantage because Andrew Scheer is not a Quebecer. And if you look at the electoral history of the province, Quebecers tend to like voting for a native son, whether it's Jacques Layton, who was born, he grew up around Montreal, Justin Trudeau.

So they know that Andrew Scheer has a weakness there. He speaks French the least well among the major leaders. So they're really banking on local candidates with profiles. So they've got some well-known mayors. They're not well-known to people outside of the cities that they're running in, but they're well-known in their communities, and it gives them much more credibility. So the Conservatives are banking on those candidates that can make up for the credibility that Andrew Scheer might lack in the province.

And their campaign is going to be much more focused on that local voice on protecting Quebec's jurisdictional positions. That is how they think that they make some gains. But the Conservatives aren't planning on sweeping the province like the New Democrats did or the Liberals did in the last couple elections. They just want to make five seats, ten seats. That's the kind of calculation they're running in Quebec because that is going to be important to them. If they can win ten seats more in Quebec, that puts them in a much stronger position to try to get to 170 seats, which is what they need for a majority government.

Conservative party leader Andrew Scheer will be in Trois-Rivières Wednesday to officially launch his election campaign. Scheer will also hold a public rally Wednesday afternoon, flanked by his Quebec candidates. OK, so like if part of this election is going to be fought in Quebec, you know, where else are we going to see it fought? 905. The 905.

God, the 905. Less than 905. Yeah, we're always talking about this. Okay, so Vashi, go. It's huge for the Liberals especially, right? So the 9.05 was key to the Conservatives' wins, any gains that they've made in past elections and especially when they've won. It votes very differently depending on the election, but most of the time differently than Toronto proper, if you want to call it that. For months, the Liberals have been cementing their messaging for 905. And it all started with Doug Ford's budget back in April. And then it took about a month for that budget to just

blow up in Doug Ford and his government's face. It was catastrophic for them, especially Doug Ford, who I think one poll put lower in popular support than Kathleen Wynne prior, just prior to losing the election. So that is really unpopular. Ever since then, the Liberals have been associating the federal conservatives with Doug Ford every single chance that they get. The idea there is to tell voters in the 905, hey, if you don't like what's happened because you elected Doug Ford, you don't like the effects of his budget, well, you're going to be in for the same kind of thing from Andrew Scheer. Canadians will have a clear choice to make.

Cuts and austerity are investing in Canadians. The middle class can't afford another Doug Ford. Conservatives like them. That's what they keep using, the phrase they keep using, right? They want to associate the federal conservatives with Doug Ford, and they're doing it every single chance they get. Eric, just kind of elaborating on what Vashie just said about the importance of the GTA. I've heard you say that you think that this election is going to be won in the GTA, and then whether or not it's a minority or a majority will be decided in Quebec. And so can you just like elaborate on that a little bit more for me? Sure. Well, I mean, Vashi laid it out that, you know,

the Stephen Harper won the GTA in 2011, Justin Trudeau won it in 2015. There are so many seats in the GTA, just in the GTA, not even counting Toronto, that there are more there than in most provinces. So it shows you just how important the GTA really is. And it's a region that swings more or less with everybody else. People in the GTA, people living in Mississauga and Brampton and Markham, they're not that keenly attached to their MP. They probably couldn't name their MP. that keenly attached to their MP. They probably couldn't name their MP. Whereas if you're talking about a place like Cape Breton or Newfoundland, there the MP matters a lot more than in the GTA. So the place will swing like the rest of the province does, like the rest of the country does.

So if you're winning there, you're probably winning the election because the Conservatives can count on the rural parts of the country. The Liberals can count on the urban sections. It's whether you can win the suburban parts of the country that make the difference. So that's why those parties will be banking on making gains in the GTA to win the election. Why I've said it's Quebec that gives the majority or the minority, it's because you can't just win the GTA. The Conservatives need to win those extra 10, 15 seats that I mentioned in Quebec to get them to 170 because they don't have enough of a map elsewhere to put together those numbers. And for the Liberals, they also need to make gains because they know they're going to lose seats in Atlantic Canada.

In the West, there's going to be a few casualties among their caucus members. It's going to be more about whether they can hold enough seats in Ontario and then augment their caucus with some gains in Quebec to get them to 170. to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. We should talk about Alberta and the Prairies here. You know, this is generally thought to be

a conservative part of the country, but last time around, the Liberals picked up a few seats there. So what is it looking like this time around, Eric? Well, it is looking like a safe place for the Conservatives. They have lots of support in those two provinces. It really comes down to just a few of the urban seats in places like Calgary and Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, and Winnipeg, whether they will flip.

The thing is, for the Conservatives, while they're running up the numbers there, that's what helps them get into a lead, tied for the lead nationwide, is because they're running up the numbers in Alberta and the prairies, but it won't get them a lot of seats. But nevertheless, the Liberals, for example, they want to make sure they have some representation from those ridings because if they do get re-elected, they want to still have, you know, a cabinet minister from Alberta, one from Saskatchewan, one from Manitoba.

It's not impossible to foresee the Liberals completely getting wiped out. Honestly, if you step foot in Alberta right now, even the most progressive voters there, and there are many, especially in Edmonton, they did elect an NDP government four years ago, provincially. They, I mean, I don't use the word lightly, but like there is a hatred for the Liberals. And there is sort of a desire to blame all the struggles that the provinces has faced over the past few years on Justin Trudeau specifically. It really isn't impossible to think of them completely getting wiped out there. And I know we've been talking a lot about the Liberals and Conservatives here, but we've got some other parties in the race and the NDP kicked off their campaign this weekend.

And Vashti, let's talk about how they're faring. Well, they're not faring so well right now, Jamie. Not so hot. The campaign is early, though. talk about how they're faring. Well, they're not faring so well right now, Jamie. Not so hot. The campaign is early, though. There's still six weeks to go. I'm always hesitant to write any one or any party off. But yeah, they've had, I mean, they've had a rough couple of years. Their fundraising numbers are very low compared to the Liberals and the Conservatives. They are polling below the Green Party in some key areas for them.

They'll obviously be focused on BC and some of the 905 as well. But yeah, it's going to be an uphill battle for the NDP. And I think actually, like I mentioned before, the sort of thing to focus on is if their vote does collapse to the degree that the polls are predicting it might, where does that vote go, if anywhere? And that could actually have a real impact on the general outcome of this election. It's just been bad news for them after bad news. There was no honeymoon when Jagmeet Singh became the leader of the NDP. Their fundraising is bad, and that is not only a symptom of the bad polling, but it also contributes to it because they're not, they weren't able to introduce Jagmeet Singh to voters because they didn't have

the money to do it and they don't have the money now to do it. And their campaign from everything we hear is going to be run on much more of a shoestring budget than the other parties. So it just is, it's a vicious circle in that it contributes to the chances that the election goes badly for them. The fact that it's already going badly and they will have a lot of trouble mounting a serious campaign. The fact that they're fighting for third with the Greens rather than fighting for first with the Liberals and the Conservatives, that is not where they want to be. So different than 2015. So different than 2015. But do you guys think that it's possible that this thing turns around? Well, I don't think it's impossible. I remember the conversation at this exact point in 2015, when everybody had kind of said Justin

Trudeau, who like good luck to him. The difference is the fundraising is a bit is a big issue, the amount of money they can spend on the campaign. I mean, the liberals were still able to raise money, even when they were in third place, and they mounted a real campaign. I mean, money matters to a certain degree, right? It's not everything. He could have brilliant moments in the debate and everyone else could collapse, Jagmeet Singh could, and maybe something changes in that respect. But like, that kind of thing will be necessary for their fortunes to turn around. And even then, they don't necessarily have the funds to sustain it.

Talking about, you know, other parties here, and I know this is something that Vashi, you and I have talked about on the show before, you know, I know that the People's Party of Canada is polling quite low, just at 3%, Maxime Bernier's party. But, you know, at the same time, we're looking at this crazy close race right now between the Conservatives and the Liberals. And Eric, is there a concern that the People's Party of Canada could pull votes away from the Conservatives? I think that's definitely a factor. I wonder how many of these people who say they're going to be voting for the People's Party are the kind of people who might not have voted last time anyway. So it's not a given that, you know, if the People's Party didn't exist, that the Conservatives would have three percentage points more support in the polls. the Conservatives would have three percentage points more support in the polls.

I think where they might play a role is in some individual ridings where they have some well-known candidates who used to be Conservative MPs. They have a few of those running, where maybe if they get 8%, 10% of the vote, that it costs the Conservatives a seat. I think the biggest impact, though, is just that you're going to have the Conservatives spending resources in a riding like Bose, which would have been one of the safest ridings

that they would not have to have worried about. Instead, they're really keen on making sure Maxime Bernier is defeated, because if he's defeated, the party's probably not going to survive the election. And Beaus is Bernier's riding. And also, as a very funny aside, the Rhinoceros Party is running a candidate named Maxime Bernier in this riding.

I love elections. Maxime Bernier in this riding. And I love elections. Maxime Bernier vote. Very funny. Okay, Bashi, I know there are a lot up in the air. What are you going to be watching for in this first week of the official campaign? I'm really interested to see what the leaders say later today. So I'm very keen to hear how they want to frame the election. I mean, we've seen hints of it already, but this is the most concise they'll probably be over the next six weeks. We will know exactly

what they want us to be thinking about as we decide who to vote for. So I like knowing out of the starting gate exactly where everyone hopes it goes and then being able to contrast it at the end with where it actually ended up going, which is usually far, far, far from what they hope this election would be about. So I'm interested to see how they sort of position themselves tomorrow, what they say specifically, and then where they end up going. And we know already that feeds into exactly what we're talking about, that they will be hitting up the 905, BC and Quebec. All right, Eric, anything to add there? Just to see who they'll be talking about. If you go back to 2015, the NDP started their campaign only talking about Stephen Harper,

and they ended up talking about Justin Trudeau at the end. We'll see who they're going to be talking about the most for the NDP. Are they going to spend more time talking about Justin Trudeau or Elizabeth May of the Greens? That's one of the things I'm curious about. Very interesting. I look forward to that too. And I hope that as this moves along, you'll come back on and we can talk about that. Exactly. Fashi, Eric, thank you so much. Thanks, too. And I hope that as this moves along, you'll come back on and we can talk about that. Exactly. Fashi, Eric, thank you so much. Thanks, Jamie. Thank you.

OK, that's all for today, though. Lots of election coverage coming up in the next several weeks. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening and see you all tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.