Front Burner - The push for regime change in Venezuela

Episode Date: May 2, 2019

Today on Front Burner - we speak to the CBC's Evan Dyer about an attempt to oust Nicolas Maduro as well as Columbia University Professor, Jeffrey Sachs, who says the United States, and others, need to stay out of this conflict.

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Hello, I'm Jamie Poisson. On Tuesday, an already tense power struggle in Venezuela took a dramatic turn. Opposition leader Juan Guaido stood flanked by men in military uniform and called for the ouster of President Nicolas Maduro. He wanted the military to join him to make that happen. Today, as the president in charge of Venezuela, the legitimate commander-in-chief of the armed forces, I call on all soldiers and the military family to accompany us within the framework of the constitution. And Maduro, he said his rival was trying to stage a coup. This was truly a fake coup, a minor scuffle, a simulation and lie. He said his rival was trying to stage a coup.

This was truly a fake coup, a minor scuffle, a simulation and lie. A coup is exactly what this looked like, for a moment at least. Guaido is the opposition leader and some countries, including Canada, recognize him as Venezuela's interim president. This week, he's been calling for protests. From Washington on Tuesday, senior members of the Trump administration really raised the stakes, calling for the ouster of Maduro one way or the other. Military action is possible. If that's what's required, that's what the United States will do. Today, why are countries like Canada and the U.S. pushing for this?

And what's playing out on the ground? This is FrontBurner. In a moment, I'm going to be talking to Jeffrey Sachs. He's a prominent economist and senior U.N. advisor, and he thinks that the U.S. should really stay out of this. But first, CBC reporter Evan Dyer was recently on the ground in Venezuela, and he's here with me now. Evan, on Tuesday, Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister,

Chrystia Freeland, reiterated her support for Juan Guaido. And on Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that while the Trump administration prefers a peaceful transition to power, military action is possible. What effect do you think that statement might have on Venezuela? The main effect has been a sort of a rally around the flag effect, which is what happens when you threaten to invade a country. The military, of course, around the flag effect, which is what happens when you threaten to invade a country. The military, of course, which is charged with preventing that from happening, tends to feel defensive and to rally around the government of the day when you make threats of that kind.

We will not allow, and I will repeat this once in a million more times, any aggression against the rule of law, the institution, against democracy, against the constitution, the weapons of the republic are to defend its sovereignty and its independence. And it's allowed the Maduro government to militarize the country. What we see is we see the Venezuelan government using this threat of invasion as an excuse to arm party members. And while those party members are told that the weapons are to defend the country from the Yankee invader, the opposition in Venezuela fears very much that those weapons are actually intended to be turned on them to protect the government from them, from other Venezuelans.

Right. The idea here being when you've got sort of an outside threat or an outside boogeyman, you can do a lot of stuff in the name of that. And also, you don't have to talk as much about the complaints within the country. You can talk about that external threat because there are serious deficiencies in Venezuela that everyone inside and outside of the government are aware of. Hunger, lack of medicine, just the breakdown of the country's infrastructure. If only Venezuelans could eat the gasoline, they sometimes say here. Cachusca Morales' family faces nationwide shortages of food at runway inflation prices. Everything is expensive. What one earns in three or four days of work is what it costs to buy one kilogram of rice.

Everybody can see these things happening all around them. The government would much, much rather talk about an external threat and then use that threat to say, we have to be tough, we have to put up with these hardships, we have to rally together. The coup that was attempted yesterday, this coup skirmish, was personally directed from the White House. John Bolton, I denounce it. But at the same time, I must say one thing which I wonder about these threats.

I do wonder why Juan Guaido hasn't been arrested yet. Why is he able, one day after what the government says was a coup, why is he able to go back out on the streets and give more speeches? a coup, why is he able to go back out on the streets and give more speeches? Still not be arrested. Why do you think that is? You mentioned before there was even concern that there could be violence launched against the opposition in this climate right now. Absolutely.

I do think the U.S. threats might have something to do with that. So I wouldn't rule out the idea that the one reason that Juan Guaido is not in prison is because the Venezuelans just aren't sure just how serious Donald Trump is being. Okay. All options are open. All, just so you understand, all options are open. Go ahead. What will you be watching for in the coming days as this very tense situation continues to unfold?

Well, more splits within the government would be the number one thing. You know, members of the regime, for example, sending family members abroad would be another thing. You know, one of the very senior members of the regime, Diosdado Cabello, who is the president of the Constituent Assembly, what the government of Canada would consider the fake assembly set up to replace the elected one, he sent his family abroad, it appears. And as other regime members do that, I think it will have a snowball effect.

You know, if we start to see that kind of panic setting in or infighting setting in in the ruling party, then it would be a sign that things are falling apart. But another thing I would look at too is, is the government able to provide electricity? You know, those blackouts that the country suffered over the last month and a half are absolutely unsustainable. Now, the people have taken their frustration to the streets

and started to block roads in the capital Caracas. The people of Venezuela are only asking for electricity and water. We don't have food. The food is rotten in the refrigerator. There is no food or water. The country was plunged into total darkness for days at a time. Looting began to occur and the country simply couldn't sustain much more of that. It's hard to see how a government could keep it together if that were to continue. So I'd be looking at that continued deterioration. Right. We've got an increasingly dire situation for the people of the country.

Absolutely. And more importantly, no sign of any reasonable prospect of turning it around. There's nothing to even, not an iota of hope, really, that a member of this government could hang their hat on if turning this around. And you've been to Venezuela. Is there a sense from the people on the ground that Juan Guaido is the answer to this? Well, you know, I think that Juan Guaido,

I mean, I would certainly say my impression is that he is undeniably a lot more popular than Nicolas Maduro. There's absolutely no doubt about that in my mind. You just have to look at the conversation that you hear in public spaces in Venezuela. You know what I mean? On the street, in the barbershop, I was actually in a barbershop getting my hair cut and people were talking about this.

And I was in an old folks' home, for example, again, and in different social classes, different neighborhoods of the city, middle class, working class, there is a kind of an understanding that the majority feels this way and can speak freely. You don't hear people speaking that freely from the other point of view, actually, in most public settings. And 15 years ago, it would have been very much the other way around. I know that there are Venezuelans who told me that in the couple of years after the 2002 failed coup attempt against Hugo Chavez, which was really when Chavez was at the peak of his popularity.

The government of Mr. George W. Bush supported the coup d'etat against the Venezuelan people, and he has the responsibility to respond to the rest of the world in the matter. You didn't really want to criticize him, and people who were always against Chávez learned to sort of mute their opinions back in those days because he was so popular. And Chávez was popular. That is the truth. He was popular. He did win elections. But things have turned around now so much. And you see that in the polling, too. I know that some people might say, well, you're naive to even read a poll from Venezuela. How could you conduct an accurate poll in Venezuela?

But actually, there has been accurate polling in Venezuela. If you look back at the earlier elections, the ones in 2013 and so on, 2011, 2010, you see that the same kind of polling companies, mega-analysis, data analysis, that still operate today in Venezuela, mostly called those elections correctly. So today, when those same polling companies are reporting that only 15% of the population supports Nicolás Maduro, I think that we have to take that pretty seriously.

Evan, thank you so much. Thanks very much. Nice to be here. We'll be back in a second. Discover what millions around the world already have. Audible has Canada's largest library of audio books, including exclusive content curated by and for Canadians. Experience books in a whole new way, where stories are brought to life by powerful performances

from renowned actors and narrators. With the free Audible app, you can listen anytime, anywhere, whether you're at home, in the car, or out on a jog. The first 30 days of the Audible membership are free, including a free book. Go to www.audible.ca slash cbc to learn more. Juan Guaido has the support of more than 50 countries internationally, including Canada and most of Latin America. But few have made their wishes quite as clear as the United States. The Trump administration wants Nicolas Maduro out and Juan Guaido in. And as you just heard, yesterday U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo went so far as to say that military action was possible if necessary.

A peaceful transition of government there, where Maduro leaves and a new election is held. But the president has made clear, in the event that there comes a moment, he's prepared to do that if that's what's required. Jeffrey Sachs thinks that's the wrong move, and that U.S. intervention in Venezuela punished the country's civilian population. He's a professor of economics at Columbia University and a senior U.N. advisor. Mr. Sachs, thanks so much for coming on the podcast today.

It's a pleasure to be with you. So the United States has made their position on Venezuela very clear now. And as you watch what's unfolding in the country and how the American administration is reacting right now, what are your main concerns? My main concerns are rising violence and rising suffering of the Venezuelan people under a kind of winner-take-all approach that the U.S. is pushing very aggressively. It wants to throw out Maduro and replace him, of course, with Guaido. So today I ask every member of the Maduro regime, end this nightmare of poverty, hunger, and death for your people. Let your people go. Set your country free. And I think it's unlikely to be successful. I think it is against international law for one country to be trying to topple another country's government.

And I think it's leading to a tremendous amount of suffering. So I want to get to in a minute why you think that this probably won't be successful. But first, why is the U.S., and I suppose Canada, because we are advocating for this as well, so eager to see this happen, to see Maduro toppled? I think in general, the U.S. and especially right-wing governments in the U.S. hate leftist regimes in Latin America and have long tried to topple them. And in this case, you have John Bol time, that if this effort fails, they will sink into a dictatorship from which there are very few possible alternatives.

And it just fits the normal pattern. They see Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua as three leftist regimes that they need to topple, the same way as an earlier generation of neocons saw Saddam, Assad, and Gaddafi as three regimes that they needed to topple. Saddam Hussein and his sons must leave Iraq within 48 hours. Putin is backing a person that's truly an evil person. The violence must stop. Omar Gaddafi has lost legitimacy to lead and he must leave. They make messes all over the world by this kind of approach.

There's nothing too delightful about Mr. Maduro. I don't want to justify things that he does. But on the other hand, the idea of U.S.-led regime change is a pretty obnoxious policy that is core to how the U.S. treats governments that it doesn't like and doesn't want. Though the U.S. is not alone in their support for Juan Guaido, Canada, the EU, Brazil, Colombia, many other countries, particularly in the region, have declared their support for his leadership. Venezuelans are in the streets today demonstrating their desire for a return to democracy, even in the face of a violent crackdown. Canada commends their courage, and we call on the Maduro regime to step aside now.

So, do you think that they have a point? They have a limited point, but I can tell you how much behind-the-scenes work the U.S. did to try to get this kind of coalition going. This is not something that just took place, and Canada's support is not completely incidental to the U.S. position, believe me. And that's true also throughout the countries of Latin America, and it's by no means universal. Mexico has said no. Maduro is, I think, a pretty unpleasant character in a lot of ways. But the normal approach, if it weren't for the bullying of the United States, would be to try to negotiate a path to

a new national election. That's what should be done. And you don't have to love the government to oppose this kind of policy. I have no affection for Maduro. He really messed up terribly the Venezuelan economy. But what I don't believe is that the United States, therefore, is the one to say, quote, all options are on the table. All options are open. What kind of language is that in international affairs? That is just thuggery.

And do you think they're serious when they say that there could be military intervention here? I'll tell you something which is not very well known. But Trump actually mused openly to Latin American leaders back in 2017. Why shouldn't I just invade to throw out the guy? And some of the Latin American leaders were stunned that the president of the United States was openly talking about invading. CNN can now confirm that President Trump asked a number of his top foreign policy advisors about the possibility of invading Venezuela. Trump aides

vigorously pushed back against the idea, as did fellow Latin American leaders who allegedly told Trump they did not want to see a U.S. invasion. This is, remember, back two years now, or not quite two years, but almost two years. This has been on the U.S. mind for a while. This isn't something we're seeing right now. What they've been told, even by their conservative allies in South America, like the Colombian government or the Brazilian government, not through our territory, you don't do it, because those countries know that such an action by the United States would be completely explosive politically. But the U.S. is a really naive kind of country, because when you're so powerful, you just think you can move the pieces around as you like. So they say these

things. I think it's mostly bragging and threat and arrogance and a kind of thuggery of language. I don't think it's real because I don't think that any Latin American country would allow itself to be a staging post for a U.S. action. So I don't believe it's going to happen. But even the language of it should get the whole world, including Canada, by the way, to stand up and say, don't talk like that. Right. So I also want to note that Juan Guaido says that he would like to call elections after, you know, he or if he takes power. Some people say that a majority of the country supports him, up to 80 percent, people who are starving, people who are sick of power outages. You know, what would you say to that claim?

Well, first of all, people are starving in no small part because the United States is deliberately breaking the Venezuelan economy with true brutality. Another round of sanctions and 56 million U million more in aid. Washington is ramping up efforts to kick Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro out of office. As we continue to bring economic and diplomatic pressure to bear on the Maduro regime, we hope for a peaceful transition to democracy. I think the pushback to this would be that these sanctions have been largely targeted at people in Maduro's circle, you know, people that support Maduro and that these sanctions haven't necessarily affected, you know, people living in the country 2017, the U.S. imposed measures to block the capital markets from Venezuelan government and business entities, including most consequentially the oil company called PDVSA. So the oil company was in financial crisis. It could not restructure after the U.S. measures. That led to a catastrophic decline of oil

earnings. And that, because it is the foreign exchange earnings of the country, led to a catastrophic decline of Venezuela's ability to import food and medicines. So these sanctions have hit the whole country. They've hit them very hard. That was the point of these sanctions. And then in January, of course, it became dramatically worse because the U.S. on this fairy tale story suddenly recognizes the self-declared president, of course, was all choreographed, and then stops Venezuela's access to its own foreign exchange reserves and its oil earnings entirely. They're still trying to patch some earnings, but basically the U.S. has caused deliberately a catastrophic decline of Venezuela's ability to import food and medicines.

Mr. Sachs, thank you so much for your perspective today. A pleasure to be with you. Thank you. So the situation on the ground in Venezuela is moving at a really quick pace. But on Wednesday afternoon, Juan Guaido conceded to his supporters that he didn't have enough military defectors on his side to actually declare victory. He said, quote, We are not asking for a confrontation. We are not Poisson. Thanks for listening to Frontburner. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts. It's 2011 and the Arab Spring is raging. A lesbian activist in Syria starts a blog. She names it Gay Girl in Damascus.

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