Front Burner - 'There was no plan': The long road to Brexit

Episode Date: January 31, 2020

Tonight, at 11 p.m. local time, it finally happens: Brexit. It's been almost four years since Britain launched a referendum on whether to leave the European Union. To remember the highs and lows of how the U.K. got to this point, we're joined by the BBC World Service's political correspondent Rob Watson. He walks us through the big moments of Brexit, like the big red Brexit bus, the resignations of two prime ministers, and the stockpiling of food. Plus we look ahead to what might come next.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Jamie Poisson. Well, here we are, Brexit day, and it only took about four years. And a clock projected onto 10 Downing Street will count down to the moment, at 11pm London time, that Britain formally leaves the European Union.

I know you're going to miss us. I know you want to ban our national flags, but we're going to wave you goodbye. A special coin will enter circulation in the UK to commemorate the occasion. The path to this moment has taken some incredible twists and turns. I profoundly regret the decision that this House has taken tonight. We will at last be able to do what? Get Brexit done! So today, the defining moments of the whole Brexit saga and a look ahead to the country's post-divorce future.

I'm joined again by Rob Watson, the BBC World Service's UK political correspondent. This is FrontBurner. Rob, thank you so much for coming back onto the podcast. Well, thanks for having me back on, Jamie. I guess if you wanted to go back to where this all began, we could go all the way back to the 70s, but sadly, we do not have all day. So I'm going to pick a more contemporary starting point. Three years ago, I committed to the British people that I would renegotiate our position in the European Union and hold an in-out referendum. Now I'm delivering on that commitment.

You will decide. Why did then Prime Minister David Cameron call for a Brexit referendum in the first place? Purely for domestic political reasons and purely for the management of his own governing Conservative Party. And I think that's why, by the way, before we really get going, it's why I think historians are going to be very, very cruel on David Cameron, really get going. It's why I think historians are going to be very, very cruel on David Cameron, because they will say that he didn't hold a referendum because he really felt this country was crying out for it, that it really needed it. It wanted this big debate about Brexit, but just to sort out a problem within his governing Conservative Party, because essentially

what had been happening really from, I guess, mainly from the 90s onwards, that there was a wing of the Conservative Party, a so-called Eurosceptic wing, that just wanted out of the European Union. And what really brought things to a head was that there were more and more Conservatives like that inside the party as members of the party. And of course, Mr Cameron had been utterly terrified by the rise of this out-and-out anti-EU party called UKIP. So that's why we are where we are because of domestic political issues. And I want to go through some of the highlights with you today. So the Brexit campaign kicked off, it seems like a long time ago now,

at the pre-Brexit era. What were the moments from that campaign that still stand out in your memory? For me, I think of Boris Johnson and that big red bus that said, we send the EU 350 million pounds a week. Let's fund our NHS instead. Vote Leave. I think the other thing I would add to that is, of course, that their genius slogan, and I guess everyone listening will remember it, and if they don't, here it is. And take back control.

Take back control. Take back control of our laws, of our money and of our borders. I mean, whatever you think of the Brexit, the whole Brexit project, it is a genius campaign. So they had a very good slogan. And they were offering this vision of if we leave the EU, we're going to be entering some sort of bright, sunny upland. Whereas in many ways that the Remain campaign was all about, in many ways it was about negative saying, if we leave the EU, we won't have these good things. If we leave the EU, then maybe our economy is going to go down. It's going to mean we'll be missing out on economic growth.

So they didn't quite have that sort of, I don't know, the sort of buccaneering vision of the Leave campaign. So the day the referendum comes is June 23rd, 2016. And do you remember what was going through your mind as the results rolled in? Were you remain was 16,141,241. The total number of votes cast in favour of Leave was 17,410,742. So the first thing is I wasn't surprised. I'm not claiming to be like the greatest political guru on earth. But I mean, I had read the opinion polls, which suggested that Leave had a very good chance. The other thing is, Jamie, is that I've been traveling all over the country. And it was just so hard to find people outside of the big cities, outside of young people, outside of universities and whatnot. We're going to vote to remain. So what did I think on the

night? When it came in, I remember thinking instantly that this is like a sort of a pseudo revolutionary moment. Why do I say that? Because since the early 1980s, it had been for both Britain's main parties, the Conservatives and Labour, it had been an absolute cornerstone, the bedrock of their foreign and domestic policy. So obviously leaving the European Union was going to be an almighty challenge. And the other thought that occurred to me is, my goodness, how on earth are we going to put everybody, this country, back together again when the result has been so close, the country is so divided, and it's all been so passionate and so emotional. So as you mentioned, it's incredibly divided. 52% of voters vote to leave the European Union and then Prime Minister David Cameron promptly resigns.

And did you get a sense that there had been much of a plan in place for what would happen should the country vote the way it did to leave? That is an easy one to answer, Jamie. Absolutely no. I mean, look, no. I mean, that's one of the reasons why we're in such a mess. While we were in such a mess for the last three and a half years, there was no plan. Indeed, David Cameron had said, look, had said to the machinery of government, the so-called civil service, look, you can't do a kind of a plan because that might interfere with the campaign either one way or another. So no, there was absolutely no plan. And that's why you instantly went in to a full blown political crisis. I mean, undoubtedly,

this is no exaggeration. Once David Cameron left and it clearly intensified while Theresa May was in office, we'll come to her in a second, no doubt. You know, Britain was in its most profound political crisis since 1945, a crisis which is not over now. And then, you know, as you mentioned, Theresa May takes over the Conservative Party. Following the referendum, we face a time of great national change. And I know because we're Great Britain that we will rise to the challenge. I know Boris Johnson declined to run. Nigel Farage, the leader of the UKIP party, he also resigns his post. I have never been and I've never wanted to be a career politician. My aim in being in politics was to get Britain out of the European Union. And so I feel it's right that I should now stand aside as leader of UKIP.

It feels like a lot of politicians are jumping ship. And here's Theresa May. And she has to try and get this whole Brexit thing in motion. And let's fast forward to her decision to call an election in 2017. I think before we fast forward to that, I think we should just do a quick kind of sit report, situation report on Theresa May. And that is to say, you know, on the positive side, I think historians will say she was clearly a woman who had a strong sense of duty that, look, David Cameron's gone. You know, somebody needs to step forward. Right. But I think history will be immensely harsh. I mean, immensely harsh on Theresa May for the following reasons. I think

they'll say that she'd been a Remainer. But I think first of all, they will say she acted as if the result had been 80-20. Suddenly, she was talking about the hardest kind of Brexit, not that the vote had been 50-50, almost 50-50. I think secondly, the terrible mistake that she made was to treat the Brexit vote as if it was some issue of party management and the governing Conservative Party that she had to deal with it in some way that kept her party together. Whereas in fact, Brexit is clearly, depending on your point of view, either an existential crisis, or an existential opportunity, but it certainly isn't some kind of issue of party management.

And then I think the third strike against her is that she was simply, totally and utterly the wrong kind of personality at that time. I mean, any politician would have struggled to step in there after such a divisive campaign. But I think it needed someone who was able, if you like, to sort of put their arms around the shoulder of the country, someone who was very empathetic, somebody who was full of perhaps of emotional intelligence, and someone who could have come up with some grand vision as to how you could stitch the country back together. But she didn't do that. She called an election, as you were saying a minute ago, which all went horribly wrong. She had this repeated campaign slogan. Strong and stable leadership.

Strong and stable leadership. Well, by the end of the election, she had lost her majority, placing her in even more difficulty. But that was the root of her problem, was seeing Brexit as an issue of party management, whereas I think perhaps, you know, in hindsight, she would have done better to say, right, let's involve all of Britain's political parties in this. Let's try and get everyone

involved. Let's try and get the British people involved. You know, let's not rush it. Let's think things through. But instead, she fired the starting gun on Britain leaving the European Union the two-year clock on that process without actually knowing what she could possibly deliver or achieve. In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem, brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Right. I remember in one particularly grim circumstance, she promised her colleagues that she would quit if they would just support her plan, her Brexit plan. Like that

was her enticement. Vote for my plan and you'll finally be rid of me. This must have been a terribly disheartening time for everyone. It was. Look, I mean, there's no doubt that it plunged the Conservative Party into a crisis. And throw in there as well, personalities, you know, politicians aren't automatons. I mean, they tend to have larger than life personalities and people, particularly on this issue of the European debate. I mean, it sort of gets a passion that is really hard to imagine. And it had got politicians and the public at large sort of seeing each other in a terrible way where Remainers would think, how on earth could Leavers believe all these lies? How could they be so stupid? How could they not see that this is bad for the country leaving? And on the other side, the Brexiteers in Parliament

and beyond would be saying, look, we've had a democratic vote. People knew what they were voting for. Why are you standing in the way? I mean, things have been tough. And, you know, at this time, there's also this potential crisis that could be kicked off in Northern Ireland or a feeling that there could be this crisis in Northern Ireland, right? Whereas that, look, if Britain was to vote to leave the European Union and if it wasn't to stay in the European Union's main economic bits, i.e. its single market and its customs union, well, then, hang on a minute. There might have to be a border to check goods between Northern Ireland, which would be staying in the UK and out of the EU, and the Irish Republic, which would be staying in the EU. And why does any of that matter? and the Irish Republic, which would be staying in the EU. And why does any of that matter? Well, anyone who knows the history of that troubled corner of Europe would know that, you know, for 30-odd years,

there'd been a sectarian conflict between Catholics, who mainly would like a united Ireland, and Protestants who wanted to remain, want Northern Ireland to remain in the UK. And the border, you know, if there was any form of structure there, because the Good Friday Agreement, the peace agreement did away with all of that, well, it could once again, become a target for paramilitaries. But more than that, they warned, Britain leaving the European Union would open up that whole existential question about Northern Ireland. I mean,

what is its future? Is it as a continuing part of the United Kingdom? Is it a part of a United Ireland? And those sort of issues had sort of gone away with both the UK and Republic of Ireland being in the EU and, of course, with the peace agreement. We have already started to stockpile on our dinosauce pizza main ingredients. We have to get organized in terms of... And we're talking about all these divisions, but by the time this thing rolls around to 2019, people are literally preparing for this by stockpiling food. And why is that happening?

Now, quite a lot of Britain's fresh food, particularly things like salads, will come from the European Union because obviously it grows better, right, in Portugal and Spain than it does in miserable, cold, old England at this time of the year. So I think there was some concern that, you know, if Britain suddenly became what's known as a third country and every lorry that comes into the UK, every truck that comes into the UK is going to have to be checked. Well, you know, the supermarkets were warning that would have an effect and that while the shelves wouldn't be empty, there wouldn't be quite that sort of selection that people were used to. I mean, can you imagine that? I mean, that again was the kind of thing that inflamed passions with Remainers saying, what kind of crazy people are in charge of this country that they'd be willing to risk shelves not having food? So now we're starting to get to more recent,

familiar history, right? Theresa May finally does step down and Boris Johnson steps up. So you're about to get onto the bit where Boris Johnson's in charge and he says, right, you know, Parliament has been standing in the way, we could never get Brexit done. And of course, on one level, that is true. But I always think in these kind of times, it's important to get the narrative, the timeline correct. And here's what's happened. You know, it's true that Parliament said no to her deal. But Theresa May didn't put that deal to Parliament until when? Until the beginning, the very start of 2019. 2019, yeah, nearly three years after the referendum.

Why? Because she was struggling to get that deal agreed within her own government, within its inner circle, within its cabinet, and within the governing Conservative Party. So, I mean, she did eventually step down. I will shortly leave the job that it has been the honor of my life to hold. The second female prime minister, but certainly not the last. I do so with no ill will, but with enormous and enduring gratitude to have had the opportunity to serve the country I love. And I wonder if you think Boris Johnson did a better

job of dealing with these divisions, these political divisions. He steps up, he replaces her as leader of the Conservative Party. And the last time we talked to you, he was running on his campaign of getting Brexit done. And he won. And here we are hours away from Brexit getting done. So it's complex, but I mean, to make it as simple as possible, Mr. Johnson has not dealt with the divisions in the country yet. What happens over the next few months and years? Who knows? But I think where he was triumphant is that essentially his wing of the party, the pro-Brexit wing of the party, there was a complete takeover. He essentially expelled those conservatives who didn't believe in the whole Brexit project. And I think his other great triumph, you remember the slogan, take back control from the EU referendum, which I mentioned.

Well, his other bit of genius during the recent general election in the UK was his slogan there. So we get Brexit done in January. Get Brexit done. And I've seen one columnist say, you know, Boris Johnson downgraded Brexit from reward to relief. In other words, he promised not that Brexit was going to be fabulous, but for goodness sake, you know, let's just get it done. And the genius there is that what he managed to do

was to really unite the Leave vote. If you like, it was like getting the band back together, right? Getting the old Vote Leave band back together and uniting the Leave vote around the Conservatives. So I want to talk to you about what happens now when Big Ben strikes at 11 p.m. tonight. It's going to mark an extraordinary moment in British history. And here's the funny thing. You know, when Britain joined the European Union in 1973, there was no great fanfare or celebration. And there's no great big sort of fanfare or celebration now that we're leaving. And I think in the first case, it was because I suppose in 1973, people didn't know what membership would bring.

I think some of that is true now about why there won't be celebrations. People are just thinking what happens next. But I think also because of the divisions, I mean, it's difficult to celebrate when you still have a profoundly divided society and when you're still not quite sure what happens next. And that, of course brings me to well what does Mr Johnson do and here of course the Prime Minister during the campaign as we just mentioned he had it clear get Brexit done but didn't really say very much if anything at all about for what purpose I mean what was going to be the point of it so I think what the country and what the world are going to be looking out for in the next few months, and don't forget, Mr. Johnson has said he wants this new relationship with the EU.

Everything's sorted out by the end of 2020, the end of this year. Is Britain seeking a new economic model? Is it seeking a new foreign and trade policy? Now it's leaving the European Union and its main institutions, the Customs Union and the single market. And at this historic moment, I mean, we simply don't know. And I would throw in one final thought, and that is doing Brexit is not going to be easy for the simple reason that the majority of businesses remain sceptical about it. I think half the population remain very skeptical. And of course, most of Britain's allies think we have made a big and strategic mistake.

So it's going to be an uphill battle. But Mr. Johnson has bags of optimism. And of course, he has a thumping majority. So this looks like the beginning of another very interesting chapter in British history. Good. Well, I hope Rob, you'll keep us abreast of all of that. Thank you so much. Cheers, Jamie. Bye. All right. So before we head into the weekend, another update on the coronavirus. The WHO has now officially declared this a public health emergency of international concern. As of Thursday, there were 98 cases in 18 countries outside China.

There are eight cases of human-to-human transmission in four of those countries, including the United States, but not here in Canada. So far, there have not been any deaths outside of China, the epicenter of the outbreak, where there are now more than 8,000 cases. So what does declaring a public health emergency of international concern actually mean? Well, it signals to other countries that the WHO thinks the situation is serious outside the epicenter. Such a declaration has been declared only five times in the past. On Thursday, the director of the WHO repeatedly said this was in part to help protect countries with weaker health systems around the globe. The declaration could rally more global coordination for a more

unified response, including recommendations from the WHO to stop the spread of the disease while avoiding unnecessary interference with trade and travel. Also, member states are required to share information with the WHO. Okay, that is all for today. We're going to be watching this story, though. Have a wonderful weekend. FrontBurner comes to you from CBC News and CBC Podcasts. The show is produced by Mark Apollonio, Imogen Burchard, Elaine Chow, and Shannon Higgins. Derek Vanderwyk does our sound design along with Matt Cameron. Our music is by Joseph Shabison of Boombox Sound. The executive producer of Front Burner is Nick McCabe-Locos, and I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening, and see you all on Monday.