Front Burner - Timothy Snyder on the present and future of Trump's 'big lie'

Episode Date: January 14, 2021

"Post-truth is pre-fascism." So wrote historian Timothy Snyder in his 2017 book, On Tyranny. He penned it in the lead-up to Donald Trump's inauguration, and he's been warning ever since: The United States is not exceptional, a coup could be attempted there, too. Now, Trump's presidency is in its dying days. He has been impeached by the House again, this time for "incitement of insurrection." But the big lie, as Snyder calls it, that Trump seeded — that the 2020 election was stolen from him — what becomes of that lie now? Today on Front Burner, Snyder explores that question.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Post-truth is pre-fascism. So wrote historian Timothy Snyder in his 2017 book On Tyranny. He penned it in the lead-up to Donald Trump's inauguration. And he's been warning ever since, the United States is not exceptional. A coup could be attempted there, too.

And so, as some were shocked watching the mob swarm the U.S. Capitol last week, for Snyder it was all too predictable. Though I can't imagine that he takes any pleasure now in saying, I told you so. Now Trump's presidency is in its dying days. He's been impeached by the House for a second time. The ayes are 232. The nays are 197. The resolution is adopted without objection. But the big lie that he seeded, that the 2020 election was stolen from him. What becomes of that lie now?

To explore that question today, I'm joined by Timothy Snyder, the author of On Tyranny and the Road to Unfreedom. I'm Jamie Poisson, and this is FrontBurner. Timothy Snyder, you're a professor of history, and you've studied past political atrocities. And I wonder, as you were watching what happened at the U.S. Capitol last week, what did you see? Well, number one, I've got to kind of break the conceit that you had to watch it. It was clear that it was going to happen. I was writing about it before it happened.

I had a long article drafted for The New York Times on the assumption that it was going to happen. And so I just I just want to avoid the impression that something out of the blue happened on January 6. It had been building up for four years. It had been building up for, you know, since November when Mr. Trump decided not to concede the the election. As I as I watched it, I mean, I guess unlike a lot of other Americans, I wasn't that surprised. I think the main thing which got my attention was how easy it all was. And I started thinking, well, let's imagine I was, you know, an intelligence agency of a non-American country. And I was looking at how easy it is to breach the U.S. Capitol. What would I think, right? What would I think about the soundness of American institutions?

It's almost, it's like a dream or a nightmare how quickly it all fell apart. Right. You mentioned that this had been building for four years, and especially since November. And what brought those people to the Capitol that day, and this is something that you talk about in that New York Times piece you referenced, is something you call the big lie. And this is the claim that Donald Trump won the election. And how did that big lie lead to what we saw Wednesday? Thanks for that question, because I think it's fundamentally important. I think events in the US and other countries in the last months and years have reminded us how much democracy and more fundamentally law depends on some kind of a commitment to

truth. Because it turns out that if you, on the one hand, stop caring about truth as a virtue and just decide that everyone's opinion is equally valid, then you end up with some really strange opinions and people asking about them. And on the other hand, if you give up on local news, then people just don't have facts. And they find themselves having arguments which are based on things they see on Facebook, which have nothing to do with their actual lives or their actual experiences. That's all in the background. Mr. Trump told the big lie that he won the election. And this is a big lie. I mean, this guy is a specialist in small lies. He tells them continuously.

He's told some medium sized lies like that Mr. Obama was born in Africa. But this was a big lie. It's a big lie because it was manifestly not true. It's a big lie because it's illogical. After all, how could have been how could the election have been rigged against him, but not against all the other Republicans who won? It's a big lie because it requires you to rearrange the entire world basically into a conspiracy to imagine how it happened. And it's a big lie, as you say, because it has to lead to violence. Once you make a commitment to something like this, you're going to feel like the world is against you. And because it's about a subject which is so important, who's the rightful leader of the President of the United States, you'll feel like you not for American traditions of racism. When Mr. Trump is saying that he was defrauded out of the election, what he's really saying is, if only white people

counted, I would have won. And when the people stormed the Capitol, note that the ones who are in the lead are actual white supremacists who are saying this house belongs to them. It belongs to them, they think, because they're real Americans, because they're white. One question I wanted to ask you, you know, going back to this idea that this was building for four years, this big lie is also the same lie in a different form that we heard four years ago from Donald Trump. He also did not accept the results of the election in 2016. After repeatedly railing against the system on the campaign trail. It is a rigged system and be careful with the voting. Donald Trump is showing

signs tonight of being a sore winner. In addition to winning the electoral college in a landslide, Trump wrote on Twitter, I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally. And I remember at the time there were so many people who said we got to give this guy a shot. We have to see if maybe he could step into the role of president and maybe he'll step up. Clinton delivering a message of reconciliation. Donald Trump is going to be our president. We owe him an open mind and the chance to lead. And what do you think about that now?

Well, I think about it now the same as I thought about it then. I mean, I thought it was ridiculous then. And that's why, I mean, I wrote my little book on tyranny in late 2016, before the man became president, because it was clear to me that that kind of thinking was wrong. I mean, it's wrong because it doesn't attend to what the man himself actually said. He said very clearly, and your example is a good one of him not accepting the election results even when he won. He said very clearly that he doesn't care about democracy.

He said very clearly that he doesn't care about the rule of law. Consciously or unconsciously, he appealed very, unfortunately, very effectively to old fascist traditions of calling for violence and riling up a mob. So it was obvious to me, you know, four years ago that this was not going to be a presidency where he was going to grow into the role. I think there are a couple of things going on here. I mean, one is American exceptionalism, where Americans, you know, imagine that it happens other places, but it can't happen here. Another is this strange idea that's arisen in America and also around the world the past 30 years or so, since 1989, that democracy is just something that works by itself.

All you have to do is have the right kind of economic condition, there'll be a democracy. And that's just not true. You have to have people who make value commitments to the rule of law, who make value commitments to equality, or else democracies will run into the ground. And talking about those others, Trump was obviously the originator of this big lie and its most prominent champion. But what role did others, particularly other officials in the Republican Party in the media landscape, have in allowing that lie to spread and to take hold? the media landscape have in allowing that lie to spread and to take hold? He could not have done it by himself. Important as he is and skillful as he is as a politician and devoted as his followers are, there is no way he could have done this himself. This is

something I was trying to explain to people in early November, that Republicans have to accept the results right away, because if they don't accept the results right away, the big lie then just then you had a few very enthusiastic proponents of the big lie, such as Senator Cruz and Senator Hawley. But the net effect was that we had two months from early November to early January, where the people who voted for Mr. Trump were being told over and over again that the election was in fact stolen. He could not have done that by himself. And of course, he couldn't have done it without America's bizarre media landscape, where the things he said were repropagated on Fox News or repropagated on talk radio or repropagated on social media. So it's now that he will, I think, recede somewhat from the scene. The real concern going into the future will be with those Republicans such as Mr.

Cruz and Mr. Hawley, who seem to believe that the way to get power is precisely by telling big lies, devaluing elections and breaking the system. Some people might be listening to this and they might be saying, look, whatever commitment to this lie that Trump's supporters have, both his supporters in the streets and in the government, they didn't actually pull off a coup. They didn't overthrow the government. They haven't reinstated Trump as president for another four years. They didn't have the military on side. They didn't have the courts on side. They didn't overthrow the government. They haven't reinstated Trump as president for another four years. They didn't have the military on side. They didn't have the courts on side. They didn't have the majority in the House and the Senate. And you and I are talking on Wednesday morning, and more Republicans are saying that they will vote to impeach, that they want consequences here.

Thank you, Madam Speaker. I would yield one minute to the gentleman from Washington, Mr. Newhouse. These articles of impeachment are flawed, but I will not use process as an excuse. There is no excuse for President Trump's actions. That is why with a heavy heart and clear resolve, I will vote yes on these articles of impeachment. And I realize that this might seem like a depressingly low bar here, but I do wonder if that offers you some comfort. Not in that way. I mean, we have a system of checks and balances, but frankly, the storming of the Capitol by a racist mob, some of whom clearly intended to murder their own elected representatives, that's not the check. clearly intended to murder their own elected representatives. That's not the check. You know,

that's not the balance. That's not the way the system was supposed to work. So I just I can't look upon this as as proof that the American system is actually is actually functional. And it's also very important that the American look, the United States of America just got incredibly lucky, incredibly lucky. We were we I mean, by some States of America just got incredibly lucky, incredibly lucky. We were I mean, by some readings of the evidence, we were minutes away from having the congressman and senators murdered. That could very easily have happened. The time span between when they got into shelter and when people started flooding the chambers is very short. Imagine what would have happened if those people who had built the gallows or those people who were carrying weapons or those people who were carrying restraining devices had actually

seen the senator or representative or Vice President Pence. We came very, very close to that. We are frankly lucky that that almost happened. Luck is also part of history. And frankly, we got a little bit lucky or a lot lucky. Here's the hope that I see. The hope that I see is that because it didn't work out, because the coup attempt so far has failed. I mean, remember, bad things are still going to happen in the next week. Because the coup has failed, there is now a different kind of platform for conversation. I think Democrats have a better argument that reforms have to be fundamental. And I think Republicans or some Republicans now have a way to start a reformation of their own party, which I think would be a very

solid and desirable thing. So I think Biden and Harris have a better chance now than they did two weeks ago of getting things done. Connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household income? That's not a typo, 50%. That's because money is confusing.

In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Cups. If we could continue with what could happen in the future now, the big lie comes from Trump. It's about Trump. And Trump is on his way out, right? And so what happens to the big lie now? You know, I don't mean to dodge it, but a lot of history also depends upon choices that individual women and men make. If the Republican Party wants to get out from under this big lie, they have a very simple

thing they can do. They can go on Fox News and they can tell people what happened during the election. This will be painful at first, but telling the truth will actually take the air out of the big lie. As far as Trump himself, I think, perhaps paradoxically, it's now the Republican Party more than the Democratic Party, which wants him to disappear. If you're a Mitch McConnell style Republican, you want him out of the picture because you want a different candidate in 2024. If you are a radical Republican who wants to break the system like Mr. Hawley or Mr. Cruz, you want Mr. Trump out of the picture because you want to be you want to be the one who's telling the big lie. You want to be the one who's running on the story of victimhood.

So I think we might see a slightly surprising closing of the Republican ranks in the next few months in order to get Mr. Trump out of victimhood. So I think we might see a slightly surprising closing of the Republican ranks in the next few months in order to get Mr. Trump out of the picture. But is what you're saying here that this big lie could perpetuate without Trump, too? Of course. I mean, it's a terribly old fashioned thing to say, but it really does matter whether people start telling the truth or not. I mean, what we're hearing now is a lot of mealy mouth stuff about how both sides need to unify and so on and so forth. With the exception of a heroic minority like like Kensinger and like Liz Cheney from Wyoming and Mitt Romney, we're hearing a lot of like on the one hand, on the other hand, the only way to deal with the big lie is to tell the truth over and over and over again. way to deal with the big lie is to tell the truth over and over and over again. And it'll be interesting to see how Republicans can find the courage to actually do something like that.

Because without it, as you say, the big lie is out there. It's out there as a political resource. And there are going to be Republicans, again, like Hawley, like Cruz, who are going to try to ride that big lie into power in four years. You mentioned before, you know, you want to see Republicans go on television and tell the truth. Do you actually see that happening? What else do you think it would take to stamp out this big lie? I love that question, because you're right that there are fundamental institutional changes that have to take place. The US media landscape, as I mentioned before, is completely warped. We've basically given up on local news. If we're going to have people aware of facts, not just about their own elections, but about things like COVID, we have to start from

local news. You can't tell people that COVID is a hoax if people have a better idea what's happening around them. You can't tell people that there was fraud in their own state if you have better and more state reporting and people know reporters, it's not going to fix everything, but it makes a huge difference. So it's not just this lie. It's that you have to repair a situation in which there's just too little truth around. It's like there's a vacuum that the big lie comes and fills up. So I think one thing that Americans have to hope for and Canadians and Europeans can learn from our experience here and try to avoid it. One thing Americans have to hope for is that we divert some of the money from big social media back to local media, commercial or

non-commercial, so that Americans just have a richer firmament of facts from which they can work and from which they can start their political conversations. Let's say that doesn't happen. Is there a way in which what we saw last week in the Capitol, rather than being sort of the last gasps, Trump's last stand, it could actually be the beginning of something, not the end of something? The danger here, as you suggest, is precisely that we have now seen a template for what an American counter-revolution basically looks like. We now see a template. You lose an election, you lie about it, you master a certain part of the media, and you call upon your followers to carry out acts of violence. These acts of violence that we saw on January 6th could have been much worse.

They could have been much worse. And the next time around, when more paramilitaries are involved, when the paramilitaries are better organized, you know, let's imagine that even more officers and firefighters join in. You can see this as a way to change the regime in the United States. That's why this is such an important turning point. You know, can enough American politicians see that this is about regime change, and not just about their own comfort in politics for the next few weeks or months? Okay, Timothy Snyder, thank you so much for this very sobering conversation. Very glad to do it. Thank you for asking me. On Wednesday afternoon, in the same spot where just one week earlier they had to be evacuated for their own safety as a pro-Trump mob laid siege, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to impeach Donald Trump.

The resolution charged him with a single article, incitement to insurrection. Ten Republican members broke with their party and voted with Democrats to charge the president with inciting violence against the government of the United States. Trump is now the only president in U.S. history to be impeached twice. What happens next is unclear, as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says a Senate trial should not go forward before Joe Biden's inauguration in less than a week's time. In a statement on Wednesday evening, Trump condemned violence and those who took part in it. Mob violence goes against everything I believe in and everything our movement stands for. No true supporter of mine could ever endorse political violence. The outgoing president, who's been temporarily kicked

off Facebook and booted from Twitter, then moved on to condemn what he called an unprecedented assault on free speech. The efforts to censor, cancel, and blacklist our fellow citizens are wrong and they are dangerous. What is needed now is for us to listen to one another, not to silence one another. That's all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening to FrontBurner, and we'll talk to you tomorrow.