Front Burner - Trump sidelines Israel, Gaza expansion looms

Episode Date: May 13, 2025

Israel is planning a major escalation of its military campaign in Gaza — one that the government says is necessary to eradicate Hamas, but which rights groups have said amounts to the annexation of the Palestinian territory.It comes amid apparent rifts between the U.S. and Israel. Trump is currently on a tour of the Middle East which won’t include a stop in Israel; he has conducted talks with a number of countries in the region without notifying Israel; and the U.S. has just secured the release of a hostage from Gaza — again without any Israeli involvement. What does all this mean for US-Israel relations? Could it mean that the Trump administration may intervene in an expanded military campaign? Or broker a lasting ceasefire?Today we’re joined by Meron Rapoport. He’s a 35-year veteran of the Israeli news industry and was formerly the head of news at Israel's Ha’aretz newspaper. Today, he works as an editor at Local Call, a Hebrew-language news organization operating in Israel.For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

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Hi everyone. I'm Jamie Poisson. Last week, Israel's security cabinet approved a plan that would majorly escalate their military campaign in Gaza. The government says that they would push the entire population to the southernmost edge and carry out extremely heavy military operations in the rest of the Strip. While Israel has said that this expansion plan is needed to destroy Hamas and get the hostages back, the plan has been widely opposed by hostage families. And rights groups, including Amnesty International, have said that it would gravely violate international law, and it would amount to the annexation of Gaza.

This is all happening at a moment where we are witnessing what appears to be some pretty extraordinary rifts between the US and Israel. On Tuesday, Donald Trump began a trip to the Middle East that will include Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, but won't include a stop in Israel. Trump and his team have been having talks with governments

and groups in the region without letting Israel know, which is very unusual. And they brokered a deal with Hamas to release an Israeli-American hostage on Monday without involving Israel. Does that mean any kind of meaningful shift in U.S.-Israel relations? And could that mean anything for stopping this expansion plan in Gaza or for getting to a lasting ceasefire. For all of this, I'm speaking with Mehron Rapoport. He's a 35-year veteran of the Israeli news industry and was formerly the head of news

at Israel's Haaretz newspaper. Today he works as an editor at Local Call, a Hebrew language news organization operating in Israel. [♪ Music playing. [♪ Music playing. Mehrone, thank you so much for coming onto the show. It's nice to talk to you again. Thank you. I should start by saying that we are recording this at 1 p.m.

Toronto time, where I am, 8 p.m. Israel time on Monday. And some of this could certainly change by the time that we go to air. In the meantime, though, Netanyahu's security cabinet has laid out a plan to expand their military campaign in Gaza, as I mentioned. What do we know so far about what this expanded operation would look like? What is the government saying they plan to do in Gaza? The decision was not published in a detailed way, so we don't know exactly. But what we basically know is that it is aimed at taking

over the whole of the Gaza Strip including Gaza City and on your list and areas in which is well is not present at the moment. to a very small area between the Khan Younes and Rafah, that's the very southern part of the Gaza Strip, very close to the Egyptian border. And there, in a very small area, concentrate the whole population of Gaza, basically, and distribute their humanitarian aid and starting what Israel prefers to call the Trump Plan, which is basically a plan for forced immigration, forced expulsions of Palestinians from Gaza. In the areas from which the Palestinians will leave, these areas will be a free zone for killing, let's say. The Israeli army will have free hands to fight there, eliminate Hamas, and probably this is of course not an official decision,

but so if we've seen the example of Rafah in the last week, probably tearing down the whole of what is left of the city, Hanunis, so everything in Gaza will be rubbles except this very small area in the southern part where these two million people will be concentrated. I know that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that the purpose of the expanded campaign would be the full eradication of Hamas and the release of the hostages, as he has said before, and he said last week that the Palestinian population would be moved for its own protection.

It's clear there won't be any in and out operations. We'll recruit reserve soldiers to enter and control the ground. How would they likely be moved realistically to this very southernmost point? Quite unclear. We have seen, for example, right before the ceasefire that was announced on January 17, there was a very heavy campaign of Israeli army in the northern part of the Gaza Strip in Beit Hanun, Beit Laia, the Balia refugee camp, a siege of over 100 days and no food and nothing and heavy bombing. Since early March, no food, water, shelter or medication has been allowed into the embattled

territory and aid groups on the ground warn of a worsening humanitarian crisis. Still, people stayed despite all the hardships. So we just don't know. It depends very much on the will of the people, you know, their choice, whether to risk death or go for these camps with unknown future and maybe forced to leave Gaza. So we really don't know how it will play out. It's maybe worth contextualizing this a bit for our audience since October 2023. At least 52,000 Palestinians in Gaza have been killed, according to

Gazan health authorities, and upwards of 2,000 just in Gaza have been killed, according to Gaza health authorities. And upwards of 2,000 just since Israel broke the two-month ceasefire in mid-March. They said essentially that hostages were not being released fast enough. 70% of all buildings have been destroyed or damaged. 90% of residents have been displaced at least once, some 10 times or more. And for the past two months, Israel has imposed a total blockade on food, medicine, and fuel entering Gaza,

which they have said is because of concerns about Hamas taking the aid, but which is leaving the whole territory at risk of starvation. Today, we can't find flowers, so we grind lentils with pasta, we bake it and eat it. The high prices do not allow us to buy anything. This is Rafa'a Yad from Gaza.

Once full of life, she has now lost nearly half her body weight. Her bones chop through her fragile skin. Her parents have nothing left to feed her. Only thyme leaves and water keep her alive. There is no life without food. How will we live? We're going to die of hunger eventually. The world has to move to stand up for human conscience

and to look at us with mercy. Given all of that, Mehrone, how much of an escalation would this expansion be compared to what is already happening there? It's certainly an escalation. If this goal will be fulfilled, and we will have more than 2 million Palestinians concentrated in a very limited area. Yeah, being given food once a week for every family, according to lists by the Israelis, while those cities will be destroyed to the ground as Qafar, for example, a city of more than 200,000 people does not exist

anymore. This will be a dramatic change in the fate of Gaza. And I would say in the modern history after World War II, I don't think we have seen such a human devastation on that scale, practically sparsing a whole population, two million people, and destroying the urban area and leaving the nothing and forcing them to immigrate and forced immigration. This was something that we have not seen, I think, since World War II. I want to talk a bit more with you about what the ultimate goal could be here. I know that you said that this plan didn't come with a tremendous amount of detail, but

finance minister Bezalal Smotrig said last week that, quote, we are finally going to conquer the Gaza Strip. From the moment the military operation begins, the areas we will occupy, we will not leave them. He talked about conquering and staying, that there would be no withdrawal from the territories we've captured, not even in exchange for the hostages. That's also a quote. Obviously, he is on the more extreme far right side of the government, but he is a government minister with huge sway over Prime Minister Netanyahu, and he sits on the security cabinet. Is there a sense that this is just Smotrich talking this way, or is there a sense that this is the government's plan, a full annexation of Gaza?

It does seem, of course, Smotrich is on the very extreme right, but in the last months, or I would say even in the last year, he proved himself maybe to be the most influential minister in the government. And as we've seen with the order given by the chief of Staff to the Southern Command, this was adopted by the army. So it's not something fringe. And the Minister of Defense, Israel Katz, is saying the same thing,

that areas that will be taken will not be returned. So I would say this is the official plan of Israel. In March, the Security Cabinet approved the establishment of a voluntary emigration bureau for Gaza residents interested in relocating to third countries. And how connected is that bureau to this current military expansion plan in Gaza? It is quite clear that this is part

of parcel of the plan after 2.2 million people will be concentrated in a very small area with very little food, no work, no universities, no school, nothing, the option of immigrating will be, I think, welcomed by many of them, does Israel have already options with the third countries that will accept so many Palestinians? This is a different question. We don't know. OK, if Israel were to succeed in carrying out this plan, what do you think would happen to the Palestinian national project, especially at a moment when in the West Bank, we are seeing a huge expansion of new settlements and an explosion of violence by both Israeli settlers and security forces towards Palestinians in the West Bank?

A recent UN report wrote that the line between settler and state violence has blurred to a vanishing point. And it is driving many West Bank Palestinians from their homes. Again, Smotridge also recently said that new construction plans are set to be approved by the government that would effectively divide the West Bank into two, and that they would, quote, kill the Palestinian state de facto.

Given all of that, what would this new Israeli plan mean for any hope of a future Palestinian state, or even for the Palestinian nationalist movement more broadly? The Israeli government states very clearly that the aim of all this, of the operation in Gaza and in the West Bank, is to not just prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state, but to get it off the table definitively. But I would say even more than just prevent the Palestinian state, Gaza is in a way the bedrock of Palestinian nationalism from the 19, right after the Nakba of 48,

from the early 50s to the 60s where Fatah was established in Rafah before the 1967 war. The first Intifada in 1987 started in Gaza. So Gaza is the embodiment of Palestinian nationalism. 80%, 75% of its population are refugees from 1948, refugees themselves, not so many left, but children and grandchildren and grandchildren. So it was then also the issue of Palestinian refugeehood. So breaking down the Palestinian presence in Gaza, turning Gaza into rubbles and pushing away most of its population will be of course dramatic to the whole idea of Palestinian nationalism and I think this is the Israeli intention.

Whether that will be the end of Palestinian nationalism or will give peace to Israel or security, I would strongly suggest that it will not. Israel won over the Palestinians in 1948 in a dramatic way in the Nakba. More than half of the Palestinian people were displaced, were not allowed to return. The villages and cities were destroyed or moved to Jewish hands. But 75 years later, the conflict is still going on. So Palestinians, even if they will be driven out of Gaza, and I still doubt if that will be implemented,

that they will not stop to be Palestinian. They will continue this from Egypt, from Jordan, from Lebanon, or even from Europe. They will not stop. Did you know that tuberculosis actually led to the invention of the cowboy hat? I didn't until I talked to John Green about his new book, Everything is Tuberculosis. It's a deep dive into the wild history of the disease. Every week on my podcast, Bookends, we sit down with today's best authors for candid

conversations about their writing, their inspirations, and their lives. You'll get to see the world through the eyes of your favorite writers, and hey, you might even learn something new about cowboy hats. Bookends with Matea Roach is available now wherever you get your podcasts. I'm curious to hear your observations and thoughts on how this is all being seen within Israel. I think in Israel, it is seen in two different, of course, there is the current, mostly the right-wing, Smotrich and Ben-Gvier's followers who of course upload it and think that this is the start of Jewish redemption and that

this is maybe even God's hand in history, changing so dramatically the relationship between Jews and Palestinians in this land. But I would say other than that, there are two ways in which the Israeli public is looking at it. I would say the majority of Israelis are concerned and tired because they want the hostages to be back. And it's quite clear that this plan does not take into consideration the hostages. Smotovic and other ministers have said it, and even Netanyahu said it very openly, that the first aim is to finish Hamas and

that the hostages is a secondary goal. So I think most Israelis are very unhappy with that. They want the hostages back. They are tired of the war. They want the warages back. They are tired of the war. They want the war to be over. A security military source told one of the Israeli website that the war in Gaza will continue for two more years, two more years, meaning two more years of reservists going economic hardship,

most Israelis are against it and they want it to go over. But although they support the end of the war and a deal to return the hostages, they don't do it because they care for Palestinian lives. There is, it is small, but growing a current that feels that what Israel is doing, what its army is doing, what its soldiers are doing is a moral stain that will not be wiped out for a generation. This is something that there are some Israelis, unfortunately there are not too many, but again, I think they have grown,

the number is increasing or feel very bad about it. You know, you're there and experiencing a different reality than I am. You know, I take your point that that current is growing. But I feel like I've heard the argument that Israelis are tired of the war and want it to be over. There have been big protests against the war, hostage families feeling betrayed for some time now, right?

And yet it doesn't seem to have moved the government, right, and the government's actions. And just why would this time be different? Is it different? I'm not sure it is different. I would be happy to say that it is different. I'm not sure. I think that if

and when reservists will be drafted in large numbers and large numbers will not show up, if this will materialize, this will be put a lot of pressure on the government. What could be pressure on the government. What could be is what we have seen now. You said that this is recorded in advance, but just as I speak, an Israeli-American hostage was released thanks to pressure by Trump and agreement between the US and Hamas, bypassing Israel? Will Trump pressure Israel to go into a deal? Will Trump pressure Israel now, even before a deal, to get in humanitarian aid into Gaza? President Trump has made very clear that one of the most urgent things that needs to happen is humanitarian aid into Gaza.

The Israelis are going to be involved in providing necessary military security because it is a war zone. But they will not be involved in the distribution of the food or even in the bringing of the food into Gaza. This will be a big change because I think the whole plan of the Israeli operation is based on that the starvation will continue, that there will be no humanitarian aid coming into Gaza and this will pressure the population to go for these centers in the south if aid will be delivered now in the South, if aid will be delivered now, in the next days, into where the people are staying now, and they will get their food there under American auspices and other American

guarantees, then I think the whole operation, the idea of the whole operation will be damaged. Certainly, if Israel will feel that it will lose the American support, this could of course push Netanyahu to accept the deal and risk the following, that his government will fall. This is an option. Yeah. that his government will fall. This is an option. You have to understand here that Netanyahu during most of his time as prime minister was when there were a democratic president in the US, Clinton, Obama, Biden.

And Netanyahu had the room for maneuver to work against these presidents because he could activate his Republican friends in the Senate and House of Representatives in order to push the president. And he did succeed pushing Americans president in the past now with Trump that the Republican Party is completely under his full control that is no real Republican Party, it's Trump's party then if he gets into trouble with Trump it doesn't have really a room for maneuver. I mean, it's been really fascinating to watch. I mentioned in the intro, just these handful of events recently that signal

that Trump may be sideleline Israel right now, right? So firstly, he set to visit the Middle East Starting today starting Tuesday and he's going to Saudi Arabia Qatar UAE and he's not going to Israel We're not planning on stopping in Israel, but we will be doing it at some point but not for this trip He de-escalated the conflict with the Houthis in Yemen, again without Israel. We dealt with other countries that were close to them and their surrogates. And we honor all of their words. We'll see what happens.

But I think, you know, I believe that hopefully that's over with. And they'll leave the ships alone, you know, just leave those ships alone. You mentioned the American Israeli hostage that was just released. Hamas said that it was done as a goodwill gesture towards the Trump administration. His Middle East envoy spoke to hostage families in Israel without Netanyahu. I could go on, right? It's quite extraordinary to watch this. Absolutely. You can add the dialogue with Iran on a new nuclear deal. Yeah, it's extraordinary to watch.

But I know there's also reporting from Israeli newspaper Haaretz that the IDF's top brass is actually hoping that Trump will stop the military expansion that we've been talking about. And, you know, as you mentioned, there is, there's heavy pressure to agree to a ceasefire with Hamas, but do they have good reason to hang their hopes on Trump here, that he or his administration would actually intervene to stop this? Especially while Israel is saying the expansion will go ahead. Oh, it's very hard to say, but yes, we've seen in the past, you know, that when the Americans

were determined, then Israel had to obey. We've seen it in the first war in Lebanon in 82, war in Lebanon in 82 when Reagan was also of course Republican right-wing. There were many fellow Israelis in his cabinet, but when he told Israel to withdraw from Beirut, they withdrew when President Bush, after the first Gulf War, decided to go for a Middle East peace conference in Madrid. The prime minister in Israel was Yitzhak Shamir, who was also a very, very right wing, and he told Shamir to go, although for the first time in Madrid we had a Palestinian delegation, for the first time in history, and Shamir refused that he was forced to go. So, yes, I think if the Americans are determined, they can certainly pressure Israel. Israel is quite weak.

It's not Russia. Israel does not have the gas that makes Europe warm in the winter. So if the US will decide stop, Israel will have to stop military aid and more importantly, I would say political aid. If the US will decide not to veto in the UN Security Council, Israel will be a big, big problem. So yes, the question is whether Trump will go that way. And of course, there is a possibility that Israel is also changed. We are seeing now a very, very right-wing government, something that we have never seen the like of it. It's also an option that US, like 82 will tell Israel to stop and Israel will not stop. But then I think Israel will get into having a fight, an open

fight with the US. I would not exaggerate by saying that this is an existential threat and a threat to the very existence of the state of Israel. Okay. I think that's a good place for us to end this conversation. Marin, thank you so much for your time. Thank you. All right. That is all for today.

I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you tomorrow.