Front Burner - Trump 'won' on abortion. Could it lose him this election?

Episode Date: April 11, 2024

Abortion is a topic that many analysts believe could present the biggest threat to Donald Trump’s political comeback. This week, he made two major statements that attempted to put distance between himself and the issue.But what does it mean that Trump is now running away from a policy Republicans spent decades fighting for?Today, CBC Washington correspondent Alexander Panetta joins us for a look at a problem Trump helped create, and what it could mean for the November presidential election.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Ali Janes, in for Jamie Poisson. This week, former U.S. President and presumed Republican nominee Donald Trump has made two major statements on one of the most contentious topics in American politics. Many people have asked me what my position is on abortion and abortion rights, especially since I was proudly the person responsible for the ending of something that

all legal scholars, both sides, wanted and in fact demanded be ended. Roe v. Wade. They wanted it. Abortion is an issue that many analysts believe could be the biggest threat to Trump's political comeback. An issue he helped create. And an issue that he now appears to be trying to distance himself from. So what does it mean that Trump is now running away from a policy Republicans spent decades fighting for? Today, I'm speaking to my colleague and Washington correspondent Alex Panetta for a look at all of this and what it could mean for the November presidential election. Alex, hello. Thank you as ever for coming on to FrontBurner. Good to be here.

So let's start with this video statement that Trump put out on Monday. What did he say? You know, I heard someone describe it this way, that Republicans are the dog that caught the car on abortion. It took them 50 years to catch the car and now they're chewing on the bumper without a clue about what to do next. And essentially what Donald Trump did is absolve himself from the issue, basically to extricate himself from the center, or try to extricate himself from the center or try to extricate himself from the center of the political conversation uh and what he really said were two things um first thing he said was that he'd leave it to the states my view is now that we

have abortion where everybody wanted it from a legal standpoint the states will determine by vote or legislation or perhaps both and whatever they decide must be the law of the land, in this case, the law of the state. Many states should handle the abortion issue that it wasn't a federal issue. But the second thing he said was that Republicans also need to win elections. Like Ronald Reagan, I am strongly in favor of exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother. You must follow your heart of this issue, but remember, you must also win elections to restore our culture, and in fact, to save our country, which is currently... And he didn't suggest a limit date for abortions.

He didn't say, you know, 16 weeks or more or less. He avoided that issue. So basically those two things. Number one, say this is a state issue not my problem and number two uh just care for what you do republicans if you want to win votes so then after that uh on wednesday like just before we went into studio to record this interview he made yet another statement so he was asked about the possibility of a federal abortion ban if he were to be reelected. And what did he say? He said he would not sign the bill, which is news. I mean, frankly, Democrats have been kind of dreaming of campaigning on the idea that Trump would impose a national ban on abortion. And he's clearly doing his best to distance himself from that impression.

You know, like he set this albatross loose into the world, this new reality on abortion, which has unleashed a lot of chaos in different places. And now he's trying to wriggle free from its grasp, saying, look, abortion is not my issue. Again, it's a state issue. I won't sign a national ban. And not, you know, this is not a presidential election problem for me. A lot of people have noted that there's like a lot of irony in how Trump seems to be trying to distance himself from this issue right now. So just give us a refresher on what he unleashed and what that has looked like in the past couple of years. Yeah, it's important to sort of rewind our mental clock back to 2016. At this point, the religious right is still very skeptical of Donald Trump.

And so what does he do? He does a couple of things. Number one is he nominates Mike Pence to be his running mate, a religious Christian. The next vice president of the United States, Governor Mike Pence. Thank you. Thank you, everybody. Thank you. Second thing he does is he aggressively courts the Christian right with a few promises that, you know, he would try to repeal something called the Johnson Amendment, having to do with how political churches can get. I will get rid of and totally destroy the Johnson Amendment and allow our representatives of faith to speak freely and without fear of retribution. I will do that. Remember. I never really made good on that promise. But the second thing he does, he says, I will appoint conservative judges. And he specifically said, I will appoint judges from this list approved by the Federalist Society, which Christian conservatives understood to mean that he would appoint pro-life judges. And they were correct. He nominated three judges

in only four years, which is quite extraordinary for a president to get that many kicks at the cannon so short a time. And every judge he named. Judge Neil Gorsuch. Judge Brett Kanaugh judge amy coney barrett uh was pro-life and and and voted to strike down roe versus wade and what what could have been a four five minority decision or maybe a five four more moderate decision. What you get instead is this 6-3 decision to repeal Roe versus Wade and thus end the, at the time, 49-year constitutional right

to an abortion in the United States. The impact of today's ruling will be immediate. 13 states have trigger laws that end access to abortion now that Roe is overturned. 13 more states are now expected to move quickly to ban abortion. And this unleashes this chain of events with a wave of anti-abortion laws, particularly across the United States South. You know, there's this big red blotch if you look at the map of states where abortion is now either illegal or severely curtailed.

abortion is now either illegal or severely curtailed. And 14 states put forward total or near total bans. A bunch of other states put forward restrictions at, you know, 16 weeks or 15 weeks or something like that. And you get basically half the country either having severely restricted or near totally restricted abortion. But this has ended up being a big problem for Republicans, actually. So why is that? Well, yes, weird things started happening in the middle of 2022. Democrats started winning elections. They started winning referendums on abortion. I think seven states have had a vote, a plebiscite on abortion rights. Surprising vote overnight in Kansas, the first state to vote on abortion since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Ohio has rejected a Republican motion to make it harder to change the state's constitution. Abortion rights on the ballot for several states, including in Kentucky.

And now the results are in. The voters in the Commonwealth decided to protect abortion access in the state constitution. And the pro-choice side is 7-0, like they've not lost a single one. Democrats started winning midterm elections. I mean, what they did in the fall of 22, the Democrats, is almost unprecedented in modern history. Parties that control the White House usually get smoked. They lose dozens of seats in the House of Representatives, particularly when they're led by an unpopular president, as Joe Biden is. representatives, particularly when they're led by an unpopular president, as Joe Biden is.

While the press and the pundits are predicting a giant red wave, it didn't happen. Instead, Democrats practically held on to the House of Representatives. They lost a couple of seats. They gained a seat in the United States Senate. They gained seats in the state legislatures and in state governorships. I mean, it's just, you know, with the exception of a few seats in the House, they basically won the midterms, which is insane. And abortion is absolutely credited as being one of the reasons that happened. So now Republicans are looking at the 2024 election and saying, oh, this could bite us again. In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization. Empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections.

Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household income? That's not a typo, 50%. That's because money is confusing. 50% of them do not know their own household income.

That's not a typo. 50%. That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. One example that I think really exemplifies what a dilemma this has been and remains for the Republican Party was a ruling this past February in Alabama that had to do with in vitro fertilization. Can you talk to me about that ruling and the tough spot that it's putting Republicans in now? Yeah, the Alabama Supreme Court ruled that frozen embryos are people people and thus people could be held liable for discarding one. The shock and confusion was immediate.

Many fertility clinics have paused treatments over fears they could be prosecuted. Angered a lot of parents, scared a lot of parents. I don't think there is anything more pro-life than couples who are doing everything in their power, everything in their control. You know, the doctors doing everything in their power and their control to try to create that new life. It's like nobody understands more that, you know, that embryo is not a child more than the person that is yearning for that embryo to be a child. And terrified, frankly, politically, Republicans who said, are we now on the side against in vitro fertilization? You know, the state legislature stepped in and passed a law to clarify

that. Trump has tried to take steps to correct that. Republicans say, no, we didn't agree with this ruling. I strongly support the availability of IVF for couples who are trying to have a precious little beautiful baby. But to me me this was a turning point because it broke the dam and out came this gusher of a republican pushback saying okay no

this goes too far um we didn't want this it winds up socializing the idea that it's okay for politicians on the right to criticize abortion restrictions in fact that their political survival probably depends on Republicans saying, no, this goes too far. We won't do this. And that sets the stage, in my view, for what happened a couple of months later, which is these statements from Donald Trump. It was such an interesting case, I think, because like there were a lot of critics. I mean, as you know, there are all these Republicans coming out to be like, this goes too far. We support IVF. It was so interesting because like a lot of critics were pointing out that many of those same Republicans who are suddenly like rushing forward to say that they support IVF were the same people who had previously supported a House bill called the Life at Conception Act, which would define embryos as people with, you know, the rights of people under

the 14th Amendment, I believe, you know, they would define embryos as people from the moment of fertilization. So it was like this, again, like very ironic moment. Correct. And that's how I was referring earlier to the dog that caught the car. You know, it's easy to sort of pass what people in Washington call a messaging bill. You control one chamber, not a second, not the White House. You know that this bill won't ever get signed. There are no political consequences to it. You know, you put your name to

something. The reality hits when you start having public health crises for individual families, where the abortion laws are having an effect on people's lives and hurting your party in elections. And suddenly, you know, you start to see these lawmakers and Republicans get cold feet, but not everyone. You know, the party is kind of divided on this. Right. I mean, you mentioned Trump's former vice president, Mike Pence, who said it was a slap in the face to the millions of pro-life Americans who voted for him. So, I mean, talk to me more about the reaction from his party and of the country. Yeah, there is a contingent of conservative, you know, church-going Christians in this country

who aren't enamored with Donald Trump, but entered a marriage of convenience with him in 2016, probably now realizing or worrying that the convenience of this relationship is now running its course. They're starting to fear that they may not get much more out of him. And for Democrats, this is kind of the sweet spot because, I mean, the objective in politics really is to divide your opponents and unite your own party. And Democrats for a while have been struggling with the fact that some of the issues that unite Republicans, you know, the border, immigration, the Middle East, divide them, Democrats. Now, suddenly the tables are turning where you have back in the news this issue of abortion,

which Democrats are pretty strongly united on and have public opinion on their side. And suddenly Republicans are tearing at each other on this issue. So, yeah, Trump hasn't put the issue totally to rest. And there are going to be events that keep pushing abortion back into the news and onto the next president's desk. And he hasn't escaped the issue, in my opinion, but he's done his best to try to at least soften the impact. It's going to be pretty hard to make people forget the abortion issue in this election because it keeps making headlines. So like last week, there were two rulings in Florida, one that will trigger a six week abortion ban starting next month.

And then another that will allow a referendum on protecting abortion rights to be on the ballot in November. Floridians will be able to vote on that measure that reads, quote, No law shall prohibit, penalize, delay or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient's health as determined by the patient. as determined by the patient's care provider. And then also, on top of that, just this Tuesday, the Arizona Supreme Court ruled to reinstate a law from 1864. Before Arizona was a state, before women had the right to vote, and bans nearly all abortions. And Trump did say on Wednesday, which is like what we're talking on Wednesday, he said earlier today. Did Arizona go too far?

Yeah, they did. And that would be straightened out. But, I mean, how could these kinds of rulings that we're talking about, and particularly the fact that this is going to be on ballots in November, how could that play out for Trump? I think a columnist for the Arizona Republic said it best this week. She described that court ruling in Arizona as a five alarm fire that could consume Republicans' election chances. Ironically, the columnist who wrote this is the sister of one of the conservative judges in Arizona who wrote the decision. Wow. In other words, this is a problem for Republicans, a vote loser.

And a number of things are kind of conspiring to sort of push this issue back to the forefront of the agenda, including court cases. You referred to referendums. A number of states are going to have ballot initiatives on the same day as the federal election this fall on abortion. Florida will certainly have one. Arizona will probably have one. And there are going to be a bunch of other states with that issue on the ballot. And so what does this do? Does this potentially get, you know, progressives not super enamored

with Biden who might not have voted? Does it get them to turn out? Does it, you know, turn off suburban moderates who might have been tempted by Republicans' fault to sort of say, just I'm going to vote Democrat up and down the ticket just because I don't want to take a chance on abortion. I don't know how many of these voters exist, but it might be enough to swing a couple of close races across the country. And this might end up becoming Democrats saving grace. So I want to talk about the Democrats a bit more in a moment. But firstly, just keeping with court cases for a moment, there are also two federal Supreme Court cases that are likely to keep this in the headlines in the coming months. So one is from Idaho. One is about an uh, an abortion pill. So let's start

with the one from Idaho. Uh, tell me about that. Yeah. The court's going to hear a case from Idaho about whether emergency room doctors can refuse to perform abortions in an emergency. It involves an Idaho state law, a federal judge and stepped in and said this, this, this law would, would keep, uh, doctors would allow doctors to say, I'm sorry, my conscience tells me I can't operate on this woman who's here in a crisis because it would be performing an abortion. The Idaho state government rejects that interpretation of its law, and it's got a bunch of conservative states on its side. Anyway, they're going to the Supreme Court. They're going to be heard shortly this spring.

So that's one case. Okay. And then there's also this other case involving this commonly used abortion pill, Mifepristone. So tell me about that one. Yeah. And the future of abortion fights is to a large extent about pills now, right? Because, you know, medication is the technique used in most abortions in the United States now. And so a conservative group led by the wife of Senator Josh Hawley, a Republican senator,

argued recently before the Supreme Court that the Food and Drug Administration had improperly approved the use of mifepristone. And it sounded like the Supreme Court judges were overwhelmingly unlikely to agree, that it's very unlikely that they will stop allowing mifepristone to be prescribed in the United States. But that's not the end of it. A couple of those judges, Clarence Thomas and Sam Alito in particular, seem to be charting a path forward for opponents of abortion to try to make another argument that they appeared to indicate might be more successful. And that's to invoke a really old anti-pornography law, the 1873 Comstock Act,

which forbids the mailing of lewd, lascivious materials. The idea being that you could make it illegal to mail abortion pills from, say, Massachusetts, a pro-choice state, into Texas, which is an anti-abortion state. And so it's funny, I was talking to someone, an anti-abortion activist, who said this sounds as antiquated as my grandmother's corset, sort of this old law. But that's kind of, the sort of this, this, this old law. But that's kind of where the fight is going and an indication that it's going to keep coming up in these court cases. It's not over at all.

One thing that, that seems interesting about this, this case in particular is Trump in essence has, has been trying to say like, this is a state's issue, that it's not a federal issue. But I mean, what do you think about this Mifepristone case complicates that idea that it's a state's issue? Access to abortion medication is controlled to a great extent by federal agencies, controlled by the President of the United States, the Food and Drug Administration, which approves Mifepristone, which under Joe Biden allows Mifepristone to be prescribed online. So you can sort of get a doctor in one state prescribing it and a patient in an anti-abortion state getting it shipped to them.

That's happening now. Will Donald Trump appoint a head of the FDA who would allow that to keep happening? United States Postal Service, which allows this drug to be shipped into anti-abortion states. Joe Biden's USPS explicitly allows it. Would a Donald Trump USPS allow the mail service to do the same thing? So these are the kinds of things that like Trump's statement, attempting to neutralize the issue. He might have turned down the temperature a little bit on aspects of this conversation, but he hasn't vacated it completely from the national political discussion because the next president of the United States is going to have a role to play and is going to have decisions to make on some of these things. And either Donald Trump is going to have to disappoint elements of his base or he's going to disappoint moderate voters by saying, yeah, I'll appoint an FDA head who will make it impossible to prescribe Mifepristone by telemedicine. So we're going to see how he plays that. And he hasn't been clear yet. So, I mean, as we've been talking about, the Democrats, of course, see a political opening here. So how are they playing this?

Yeah, so Democrats' task of arguing that Trump is going to sign a national abortion ban just got a little harder. But what they are going to say, and can easily continue to say, is he's unleashed this string of consequences he can no longer control you know just the morning that donald trump came out with his abortion position on video uh the democrats put out there this ad for the first time uh featuring this this uh texas woman uh amanda zarowski this is one of our willow boxes this is just filled with some of the things that we had started gathering for her while I was pregnant. She almost died. She was pregnant. She was looking forward

to having a baby. And she's in this ad showing some of the items she bought for her unborn child. And she starts to cry during the video while thinking about this baby. Her little footprints. She describes how she had a miscarriage,

and doctors wouldn't operate on her because she lived in Texas, and that she developed sepsis, which could have killed her, and has done severe damage to her insides, and making her worried that she might never be able to conceive again. And she's in this ad with her husband and she's sobbing. And the ad ends with a caption saying, Donald Trump did this. And again, I think the Democrats' argument just

got harder because Donald Trump did his best to sort of smother the conversation that they were hoping to have. But it's still going to happen, this conversation. You know, he's attempting to wash his hands of one of his most important legacies because it's important to note here, though, that, you know, when American voters are polled, the vast majority don't put abortion as their top election issue. Right. Like one pollster that I saw you spoke to for a recent piece said that just three percent call it their top issue. So is this really something that could actually tip an election for the Democrats? Yes, I talked to these folks at Quinnipiac, which regularly asks poll respondents, what's your top election issue? And really, one, two, three are the economy and inflation, the border and immigration, and defending democracy. Okay, so those things are all in the twenties or close to the twenties, 20% or so say that this is their top issue abortions at three. So I asked this pollster, I said, well, you know, that indicates

to me that this is, this is, you know, issue may not have the legs that some people expected it will in this election. And the pollster surprised me and said, no, to the contrary, you know, there, there are not a lot of issues that draw blood in an election, right? He said that the issue that draws blood from Democrats that could hurt them is the border and immigration. Like what you really want in politics, if you're running in an election, is to sort of have your opponents split and your base united. And this particular issue is something that divides Republicans that a lot of moderate voters recoil from. In 2020, I think it was 42,000 votes or so. I'm going from memory here. About 42,000 votes was the difference in a total of three swing states. was the difference in a total of three swing states.

You know, all it takes is just a fraction of that 3% to say, well, I'm staying home. I'm not too crazy about Biden or I'm going out to vote against Trump or I'm going out to vote on this abortion ballot initiative. And you've swung the election. One of those states is Arizona. I think that's why I'll be watching that one closely on this issue because it's a swing state.

It's a closely fought swing state. Abortion's on the ballot and there's an abortion ban on the books. So I think that's like sort of the planets are aligned for it to be an issue there. But it could play out elsewhere as well. And so, yeah, 3% may not sound like a lot, but in a modern American election, 3% is a lot of people. All right, Alex, we will obviously be watching this and I'm sure we'll be talking to you about it again soon. Thanks very much. Thank you.

All right, that's all for today. Thanks for listening to FrontBurner and we'll talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.