Front Burner - Ukraine peace plan,or Russian ‘wish list’?

Episode Date: November 28, 2025

In a somber speech last week Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned his people that their country was on the brink of a critical choice: either lose their dignity or risk alienating a key partner, America. His speech came after Donald Trump set a deadline demanding the war-torn country accept a unilateral American peace proposal.That proposal has been internationally panned and called a Russian “wish-list”.The dire situation Zelenskyy warned of however, did not come to pass, at least not yet.Zelenskyy says he is now ready to move forward with an American led peace process, but as Trump’s key negotiator plans to head to Moscow the question remains, are the Russians?To help us understand whether this is the beginning of the end of this war, or just another false start we’re speaking with reporter from The Kyiv Independent Francis Farrell.For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

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Donate at lovescarbro.cairbo. This is a CBC podcast. Hi, I'm Jamie Pousson. Right now is one of the hardest moments in our history. The pressure on Ukraine is one of the heaviest. Ukraine may face a very difficult choice, either loss of dignity or the risk of losing. So this is Ukraine's president, Vladimir Zelensky, last week, trying to prepare his people

for a deadline set by Donald Trump demanding the war-torn country except a unilateral American peace proposal, a proposal that's been internationally panned and called a Russian wish list. The dire situation Zelensky warned of, however, did not come to pass, at least not yet. But the reprieve only came after a string of leaks, counter-proposals, and first. frenzied negotiations. Zelensky says he is now ready to move forward with an American-led peace process, but as Trump's key negotiator plans to head to Moscow, are the Russians. To help us understand whether this is the beginning of the end of the war or just another false start, we're joined by Francis Farrell. Francis is a reporter at the Kiev Independent.

Francis, hey, it's great to have you back on the show. Hi, Jamie. Good to be here. Okay, so let's start with the 28-point plan from the Americans that leaked last week. It included demands that Ukraine see territory to Russia, limit the size of their military, and permanently abandon efforts to join NATO. There were also concessions like blanket amnesty for any war crimes committed as well as a commitment to allow Russia to reintegrate back into the global economy through lifting sanctions and folding the Federation back into the GA. Right. And how did this proposal land in Ukraine? Yeah, so a lot to unpack here. I think, and we can get into this later, but I think it's first important to talk about the circumstances in which this plan was originally crafted. We understand now through a bunch of leaked reports that it was very clearly concocted by American envoy to Russia, Steve Whitkoff, together with Russian.

envoy, Kirill Dmitriv. And we know more and more, especially now that there have been these tapes leaked by Bloomberg, that it was a product of these two men, you know, and we're joking now about Whitkoff, you know, being also more representative of the Russian side than the American side at this point because he was advising another high foreign policy official Yuri Usharkov about how to best formulate this plan together so that Trump will be on board with it. Here's what I think would be amazing, Wikov says, before describing what Putin should say on a call with Trump. Just reiterate that you congratulate the president on the Middle East peace deal. Putin's official calls Wikov, my friend. And Wichkhov...

And, you know, Trump has brushed that off, and he said that's not part of, that's not a problem for Whitkoff to be doing something like that. I haven't heard it, but I heard it was standard negotiation. That's what a dealmaker does. But in reality, this should be understood better as a Russian plan. And then, of course, Trump did get on board with that and very quickly decided to put a lot of pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymy Zelensky to, accept it, which is why we saw, and this is not the first time, you know, we've seen Russian maximalist demands packaged as a peace plan that attempts to make a compromise. But it was the first time, you know, you correctly start with Zelensky's address, it was the first time that we hear from the Ukrainian side that they could be seriously considering it. He was talking about either difficult 28 points or an extremely

harsh winter, the hardest and further risks, life without freedom, without dignity, without justice. And so that was when I think the whole country just kind of woke up for a second and thought, you know, is it possible? Could we be on the brink of signing this plan, which, you know, in many ways, was equivalent to capitulation? The Ukrainian president was careful not to denounce the plan. when he met top Pentagon officials in Kyiv on Thursday night. Vladimir Zelensky cannot afford to anger a U.S. president he has irritated before and who is often described as impatient to end the war.

Best regards to President Trump, please, from me, our team, we are very thankful to him and to the United States, your nation. To get to your actual question, what is it that outrages Ukrainians so much about this? you know the biggest one of course is the handing over of new territory you know not even the kind of understanding that okay we freeze the front lines and and for now this is going to be a demilitarized zone and and russia will hold on to what it's conquered but actually the handing over of new territory you know in in denetsk region which is still inhabited by hundreds of thousands over 200,000 Ukrainians into Russian occupation, together with all of what that means.

And then on top of that, we have the question of a limit on the size of the Ukrainian military and, of course, nothing looking like any hard security guarantee apart from just a few points on a piece of paper, which has never got in the way of, of Russian aggression before. What's your read on why Trump got on board with this and then turned the screws on Zelensky? I think Trump's clearly frustrated. He's kind of vented his frustration. throughout the year. He'll have to like it.

And if he doesn't like it, then, you know, they should just keep fighting, I guess, you know. His suggestion that you made, though, was that if he doesn't accept it, that the U.S. would pull back its support for Ukraine. Well, at some point he's going to have to accept something. You know, he hasn't accepted. You remember right in the Oval Office not so long ago.

I said, you don't have the cards. He just doesn't seem to understand, I think, the very key core aspect of this war, which is that it is a war of aggression, a war of conquest, which Russia started, and they still want a lot more of Ukraine and are not really keen on stopping. And in that view, I think at several different occasions, he's been very tempted by the idea, well, okay, well, making Russia stop through, you know, extra pressure, billions of dollars of aid, sanctions, you know, it's not something he can be really bothered to do. And he kind of more speaks the language of the dictator. He's talked of

his pleasant relationship with Vladimir Putin. And he's not really had the will to do that. And instead, he's been very tempted by the idea that, well, instead, how about we just pressure Ukraine. I mean, they don't want to just agree on their own. Well, if we pressure Ukraine, then they might be able to, well, that might be the way we can get a quick piece. Amongst its 28 points are many President Zelensky's rejected in the past, including Ukraine giving up the last parts of the eastern Dombas region it still controls, cutting the size of the armed forces, and ruling out membership of the NATO military alliance. Russia's demands are not, they just want this bit of land. I don't really know what that bit of land

really is, but that doesn't seem unreasonable. You know, it's the, unfortunately, the study of this kind of devolves to the study of Trump's mind and his psychology. And I'm not a professional Trumpologist, but just from what we can see, that seems to be the understanding, the temptation of the quick peace, the Nobel Prize, which he can brag about. And consistently, that has been undone by Ukraine saying, no, we're actually not interested in capitulation. And we do have retained the right to keep fighting. And we do retain the ability to keep fighting, even though the battlefield is, of course, really, really tough at the moment. Yeah. Though it did clearly elicit panic in Ukraine, but also in Europe, right, leading Britain, France, and Germany

to help put forward this counterproposal over the weekend. Europe has largely been sidelined in these discussions. On Tuesday, 36 countries, including Canada, met virtually as part of the so-called Coalition of the Willing and implored the U.S. to intensify the pressure on Russia. And it's only if Russia believes we're serious to responding to any violation, that this will underpin a lasting piece. It was kind of this frenzy of talks, right? And how would you describe how Europe reacted here and Ukraine and how they push back?

Well, I think once again, we could tell how serious it was from that address, from Zelensky. And I think one thing that has been kind of glossed over here, very often in the discourse is first the leaks and then Trump's own very honest confirmation that Zelensky was being threatened with a cutoff of American aid and intelligence to Ukraine, which, of course, Ukraine has lessened its dependence on US aid because there haven't been any new packages being sponsored. And now it's more European countries who are paying for these US weapons. But on the tactical level, Ukraine is mostly relying on domestically made drones. But still, I mean, that combined with the intelligence support, which is much more difficult to

quantify, that was the real tightening of the screws. That was the real threat. And that was, I think the thing that made Zelensky and Europe really take this so seriously. And, you know, that's on the, on the Ukrainian side. I think on the European side, of course, European leaders, including, you know, Prime Minister Stama, President Macron, Chancellor Merzsk, Prime Minister Tusk of Poland, And they all understand, you know, that this is not a workable deal for the future security of Ukraine. And they are on the same continent. Now, we all want a just and lasting peace. That's what the President of America wants.

That's what we all want. And so we need to work from where we are to that end. But the principle that Ukraine must determine its future under its sovereignty is a fundamental principle. And they are complaining about kind of not being involved in the negotiation process. But that's one area where I would actually push back and say, well, they don't really have the right to be involved so long as they're not making the defense of Ukraine their own defense. They're not making this war their own. They consistently refuse to consider things like the SkyShield initial. to defend Ukraine's airspace, to deploy some non-combat boots on the ground, and they cannot

even agree to release the seized Russian assets that they have in their banks. And so as long as they're helping, but still not really going all in to the defense of Ukraine, Russia is free to move forward and apply the pressure through Trump however it wants to. 500 hospital staff, 1,000 doctors, all doing so much with so little. You've got to be Scarborough. Defined by our uphill battle and always striving towards new heights. And you can help us keep climbing. Donate at lovescarbro.cairot.ca.com. At Desjardin Insurance, we put the care in taking care of business.

Your business to be exact. Our agents take the time to understand your company so you get the right coverage at the right price. Whether you rent out your building, represent a condo corporation, or own a cleaning company, we make insurance easy to understand so you can focus on the big stuff, like your small business. Get insurance that's really big on care. Find an agent today at Dejardin.com slash business coverage. The Americans and the Ukrainians have been talking this week in Geneva, and reports say that they have kind of whittled down that original so-called Russian wish list. 28 point plan to 19 or 20 points. And do we have a sense of kind of where we are at this moment and

like what that whittledown plan looks like? I know both sides have kind of expressed some optimism, but who knows if that's real or not. Well, I mean, optimism about peace and modifications to this draft plan. Those are different things. I I think Europe and Ukraine are breathing a sigh of relief because the U.S. has kind of moved away from that 28-point peace plan, which included those capitulatory terms. And so I think now the U.S. is on board with that. But it's also worth remembering, like, what U.S. are we talking about? Are we talking about Wittkoff, who concocted the plan together with the Russians and and sold it to Trump, or are we talking about the actual state department and foreign policy

establishment and the other members of this delegation, you know, led by Rubio, who, you know, with all his faults, is a more traditional Republican who does understand the core of this war. And so that's all well and good to basically move Trump away from this position of capitulate or I'll cut you off. But does that make us any closer to peace? It does not, because just today we've had Putin come out and basically laugh off these new attempts. In general, we agree that the U.S.-backed peace plan can be used as a basis for future agreements. But it would be impolite on my part to speak about any final versions, because there are none. Ukrainian troops must withdraw from the territories they hold, and then the

fighting can cease. If they don't leave, then we shall achieve this by armed means. Basically saying that, no, the withdrawal of Donbass is our non-negotiable, from Donbass, sorry, is our non-negotiable term. And, you know, we would negotiate with Ukraine, he said, in just a press conference today, but we can't because they're not legitimate. The Ukrainian leadership is not a legitimate leadership, and he's trying to play off the idea that there haven't been elections in Ukraine. So he's just basically spitting on this whole plan. I personally don't think he would have agreed to the initial one that was negotiated by his own invoice. Why? Because I think what's most important to understand about this whole process is

It's not the existence of a plan or a deal on the table on negotiations that is important. It is simply the balance of power between the two sides. And Russia launched this war with an attack on Kiev, with an attempt to completely end a sovereign Ukrainian state. And for now, they are steadily advancing on the battlefield. They're not achieving breakthroughs, but they are steadily advancing. there are a lot of mounting problems for the Ukrainian military, which is overstretched, but still the only thing in the way of the most maximalist territorial kind of achievements that Putin might hope for. If they collapse tomorrow, then there won't be much stopping him

from taking Kiev, Vodessa, as much of the country as he might want. And so, feeling the wind in his sails and understanding that reluctance to stopping his war has not led to major consequences from the American side, apart from a few sanctions, which were quite randomly slapped on a few months ago. These are tremendous sanctions. These are very big. Those are against their two big oil companies, and we hope that they won't be on for long. We hope that the war will be settled. he feels like he's winning and he feels like there's no reason to to stop for for less. Is he facing any kind of pressure at home to end the war?

You know, I know we've talked on the show before about the economy there and the strain that it's under young men are just dying in very large numbers. Yeah, I mean, it's the ultimate question, which you rightly ask. because the war doesn't stop until Russia decides that it's had enough. And this comes down to one man at the very top of the Russian power vertical. So it's always going to be his decision. Even if things at home are looking worse and worse, he can continue, and that might cause other problems. But of course, this is a dictator which has established complete totalitarian control.

And so we don't see any internal resistance, you know, things could change if the economic situation gets a lot worse. But for now, and if that starts to really affect the living standards of Russians, but for now, you know, everyone loves to predict that the Russian economy is just a few months away from collapsing, but that never ends up happening. And in the meantime, the most important real variable about whether Putin can continue this war is manpower. And on the whole, the Russian army is still being replenished by volunteer contract soldiers, those ordinary Russians who are attracted by the huge sign-up bonuses and the very generous salaries, who continue signing up, despite it being pretty obvious that it's by now that it tends to be a one-way trip. It's an interesting question. If the recruit rates really, really start dropping, will Putin go for a larger forced mobilization round? He clearly is very reluctant to do that, and that might be the turning point where he's

decided he's had enough and he's ready to stop the war. But of course, as a totalitarian dictator, I don't think he should be worried. I think he could do it without any issue domestically. I know, of course, a majority of Ukrainians want to see an end to this terrible war, but not with those kind of capitulations to Russia. But what is the situation? that the country and Zelensky is in right now. I know he's in the midst of this corruption scandal involving $100 million in the country's energy sector. Is that playing into the

vice that he's kind of in at the moment? Yeah, so it's a really tough question about where, what state the country is in. Obviously, there are a lot of huge strains on the country, which is understandable given its situation. Along the front line, There has been more dynamic, I would say, Russian movement in the past few months. We obviously know about the city of Pekrovsk, which at this point is probably mostly overrun by Russian soldiers in the East and Danesk region and the neighboring city of Mirnhajad, which is under an extreme threat of encirclement. And in another part of the front line, we did see Russian gain. at a rate much higher than usual. On the other hand,

Russia has tried, despite feeling like they have the advantage, they've tried for a long time to actually achieve some kind of operational breakthrough, and they have failed to do that because the battlefield is so saturated with drones on both sides that any attempt to really pierce through the Ukrainian defense

with tanks or arms, vehicles is ended very, very quickly. But of course, overall, you know, Ukraine is suffering a chronic manpower crisis. We do have high rates of AWOL and sometimes desertion, and the military is quite overstretched. But it has been fighting in that kind of state for quite a while and still holding the line. Meanwhile, domestically, there are economic issues, there are budgetary issues, there's the internal pressure from mobilization, which is, you know, it's necessary for the country's survival, but it is quite painful on an individual and social level to have that continue. And then, you know, things are really not at all helped by this

corruption scandal. You know, it's fair enough to point to that. And it's just a really just a little bit depressing kind of episode in the country's wartime history. Prime Minister Vladimir Zelensky calling for the country's justice minister and energy minister to be dismissed. Shortly after, they both resigned. It's all because the country's anti-corruption police allege a $100 million U.S. kickback scheme from state energy firms. Zelensky calling for maximum transparency, among the suspects, a former business associate of his. corruption, including, you know, from petty corruption to the very top, has always been a problem, a systemic kind of disease in Ukraine, which they have been working on for a long time,

especially since the revolution in 2014 and the establishment of these independent organizations, which, you know, thankfully are the ones who have now investigated this corruption scheme. So on one hand, the fact that, you know, this is even investigated and the fact that this is brought to light and is causing so much uproar, that is, in a sense, a little victory for Ukraine, but in the wartime context, there is no doubt that this is really damaging to Zelensky's legitimacy. But having said that, it's also worth seeing, you know, how the last week or so's events with all the peace talks kind of affected that because, you know, despite any internal problems, despite a difficult situation on the front line, and even despite this corruption scandal,

the basic state of the game remains very clear to Ukrainians, to the vast majority of Ukrainians, that this is an existential fight, and the state needs to be strong. Okay. Feels like that's a pretty good place for us to end the conversation today. Francis, as always, thank you so much. Thanks, Jamie. Always good to be here. All right. That was all for today. Front burner was produced this week by Shannon Higgins, Matthew Amha, Lauren Donnelly, Karen Outthorn, and McKenzie Cameron. Our YouTube producer is John Lee. Our music is by Joseph Shabbison.

Our senior producer is Elaine Chow. Our executive producer is Nick McCabe Locos, and I'm Jimmy Poisson. Thanks so much for listening. We'll talk to you all on Monday.