Front Burner - United premiers could spell trouble for Trudeau

Episode Date: December 3, 2019

This week, provincial and territorial leaders from across the country gathered in a Toronto suburb to decide on a collective agenda to present to the federal government. On Monday, the premiers came out of the meeting striking a tone of unity, with a list of agreed-upon priorities to assist struggling resource-dependent provinces. Today on Front Burner, CBC's J.P. Tasker reports on what came out of the meeting, why Alberta Premier Jason Kenney won big and what a united group of conservative-leaning premiers might mean for the Liberals' legislative plans.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm El-Amin Abdelmahmoud, in for Jamie Poisson. Over the last few days, premiers from all across the country gathered to meet in Mississauga, Ontario. Some special things happened. They dined at one of Duckford's favorite restaurants. The premiers had a private dinner at this Italian restaurant to try to find some common ground in a more social setting.

They bonded over shared love and hatred of the Toronto Maple Leafs. We got your Leaf jerseys. If they want to bring the Leaf jerseys out here. There they are. Now you don't have to put them on. Oh, this is the best. And shockingly, they basically all agreed on what priorities they'd like to present to the federal government.

There's been questions in the past around this table being able to focus in and then actually agree on some of those priorities. And I think you can see today that this most certainly, this agreement on a number of priorities has been achieved. So today, CBC political reporter and friend of the pod, J.P. Tasker, is here to explain what happened, what Alberta Premier Jason Kenney has to do with it, and why it could pose a threat to the prime minister's legislative agenda. This is FrontBurner. Hi, JP. Hey, Elamin. So, JP, you've been in Mississauga for the past two days. Set the tone for us.

What is the mood in the room when all the premiers in the country get together? Well, the mood is, dare I say, jovial, cordial, congenial. I mean, pick your adjective. There is not a lot of dissent in this crowd, at least publicly. They really do seem to all get along. Let me dive in on that one first. I think it's to both of us. Well, it is now. It probably helps that they're all from the same demographic. You know, they're all middle-aged dudes who like sports.

Well, actually, with the exception of one. Right. The Northwestern Erasure has just elected Carolyn Cochran. So there is one woman around the table. Well, actually, with the exception of one. The Northwestern Erasure has just elected Carolyn Cochran. So there is one woman around the table. But one really actually kind of heartwarming moment was when Doug Ford was tossing out Toronto Maple Leafs jerseys. You know, they all had their names on the back. Francois Leclerc, number 32. I don't know if that's how you foster national unity in this country, by handing out Maple Leafs jerseys.

I don't know if I can touch that. Who do you want? Oh, Dirty Rotten Habs fans. That's the best guy. It's like Dracula. My son is so ashamed of me right now. I think at least half the room were Habs fans, but it shows that this is a pretty chummy group.

Tell me, how did this meeting actually come into existence? Yeah, so as you'll remember, of course, Justin Trudeau was elected at the end of October with a minority government, and there were no seats from Alberta and Saskatchewan. So we're really, as a country, kind of dealing with this national unity question. There's just so much frustration in the Western provinces,

those provinces that have extractive industries, and a lot of premiers are worried about the Federation coming apart, frankly. So they decide, let's do something about it. Let's meet sometime this year before we sit down with the prime minister in January to hash out an agenda, some sort of platform they can put to him that will help tackle some of these issues that are really pulling at the strings of national unity. And it really comes down to natural resources and fiscal inequality. And if you look around that table at that meeting, there were obviously

big players and then players who were just happy to be there. Who were the loudest voices in the room? Well, Jason Kenney is a huge presence, and he's been a politician for so long. So I think that's why he's such a great communicator. He really knows how to get his agenda across the finish line. He did that today for sure. Let me thank my colleagues here for showing that they understand the adversity Albertans are going through and folks in other parts of the country like Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador. This was a tremendous moment of solidarity. And I think Scott Moe has kind of become a bit of his wingman, if you will, who's from Saskatchewan.

Of course, they are really united on virtually everything that comes on that table and everything that crosses that table, especially natural resources and really fixing the fiscal imbalance I feel that there is in this country. But I do agree with Jason within the fact that this is one of the ways that we create wealth in this nation. And by extension, that's wealth for all Canadians. And we create it very differently from coast to coast to coast. And their other ally is Doug Ford, of course, of Ontario, who's been a controversial presence here in this province. But he's really trying to present himself now as sort of a Captain Canada, if you will. He really wants to present Ontario and him personally as a unifier, someone who can bring the country together. We may have our differences, but Canada is united. We're a united nation. And as you've seen in this meeting, when some of the

provinces are struggling, we're all there. It's a role the provinces played in the past. I'm thinking of the constitutional negotiations of the 80s and 90s when, you know, Ontario really put its interest last to the benefit of the country, trying to get some consensus on things. So he's trying to do that. And then there are people on the other end of the political spectrum, like Dwight Ball from Newfoundland and Labrador and John Horgan in B.C. They just happen to be on either side of the country. They happen to be on the other side of the political spectrum of Jason Kenney and Scott Moe. They're more progressive types.

Any time we get an opportunity to expand a pharmacare into places like Newfoundland and Labrador, these are discussions that I want to have. What role the province has in regulating activity, not just of diluted bitumen, but any other product transported through British Columbia by rail, by pipeline, by carrier pigeon. I mean, things have changed a lot since Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was first elected in 2015. When he sat down for the first First Minister's meeting, it was a liberal love-in, right? Everybody was either a liberal or an NDP premier, with the exception of Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall. As what happens when groups of Canadians get together, we found out very quickly that we have far more in common than we have differences.

So what he's facing now at that premier's table is a very different group of people. It's a group of conservative-minded premiers, for the most part. even people like Steve McNeill from Nova Scotia, who's a liberal, he's kind of a right of center liberal in the maritime tradition. You know, he's all about balancing the budget and being fiscally responsible and kind of shrinking the size of government. And even Dwight Ball, I mentioned he's a progressive force on things like pharmacare, but he's also been slashing the deficit and trying to pare back spending. So this is not exactly the same group of people that the prime minister faced the last time.

So things like climate change, for example, did not come up today, was not part of the discussion. Okay, you've been there for two days. What is a top-of-the-line main takeaway for you from this meeting? Well, I feel like Jason Kenney got everything he wanted. I mentioned he was a good communicator and a good politician. He got all the premiers to basically sign on to his agenda. to basically sign on to his agenda. And it's important to point out that they might not have signed on to this agenda if we weren't facing this national unity problem at this time. One really important thing is fixing the fiscal stabilization program.

Now, I know that sounds really sexy. Real sexy. Real enticing policy. Really sexy. But it is very important. Even during some really tough years, we have seen Albertans contributing net $20 billion a year plus to the rest of the country. So it basically gives us a little bit back of what we put into the federation every year. Essentially, it's a program that was created, I believe it was back in the 1980s, to help provinces that were facing like a downturn of sorts, like a short-term budget crunch. And so the federal government has this plan to kind of float some money to provinces in need. But the problem is, as it's structured right now, there's a cap on it.

So it's only $60 per person for each province that's eligible for the stabilization program, which works out to about $250 million in the case of Alberta. And they are drawing on that now. But the budget hole that Alberta is facing because of the drop in oil prices is about $9 billion. So that $250 million from Ottawa doesn't really cover it, right? It doesn't make them whole. It doesn't even come close to making them whole. And the provinces all agreed today that they're going to ask Justin Trudeau in the new year to fix the stabilization program.

They want him to lift that cap. They want to consider making it so they could have retroactive payments that go back years before this year, so that Alberta could cash into the tune of about almost $2 billion. And that would really help Jason Kenney get back to that balanced budget that he so desperately wants. And it would also help out provinces like Newfoundland and Labrador because they're also a very oil-dependent province.

They depend on their royalties from selling offshore oil. They've seen a real hit to their economy because of this and their budgets in tatters too. And they only get about $8 million from the fiscal stabilization program. And that's obviously not enough to cover the losses they've experienced in the last couple of years. And they feel like, you know, the fabric of the country depends on having provinces in a good fiscal position, and Ottawa can help with that. In 2016, I represented a province, New foundland and Labrador, that had lost $1.1 billion in revenue from royal royalties.

This fund would have provided Newfoundland and Labrador $7.9 million. So insignificant. So when you use the word stabilization fund, you think the intent would be to stabilize something. Well, it didn't work. Now, I think listeners are rather familiar with how Alberta and Saskatchewan were talking about the equalization payments conversation. How is this different from the equalization payments?

Right. So equalization is based on GDP per capita. So it's meant to make poorer provinces roughly equivalent in what services they can provide to the richer provinces. And so in that case, Quebec really cashes in because they do have a lot lower per capita than the other provinces in the Federation, most notably Alberta. Even though Alberta is facing tough times right now, it's still comparatively a lot richer than some of the other provinces. So it's really a non-starter for Quebec and the Atlantic provinces in particular, the people that use this program most to open up that equalization formula to rework it. So what they're doing is going with this stabilization program, which is separate from equalization.

It's kind of similar in goal. It's starting to help provinces out when they need it. But it is more of a short-term fix. Equalization is baked into the Constitution. It has more permanency. So they really want to focus Justin Trudeau's energies on this program to help out people like Jason Kenney and Scott Moe and Dwight Ball who are really facing huge holes in their budgets right now. Alberta will continue to press for reforms to the equalization program. We weren't going to get into a three-hour meeting today, an extraordinary meeting, into a top-to-bottom rewrite of fiscal federalism,

including equalization. And what else did Kenny walk away with? Ooh, another big one. So they all agreed to ask Ottawa to improve, in their language improve, which I assume means amend, Bill C-69, which is the controversial overhaul of the Environmental Impact Act. And Jason Canino has railed against this bill for months. He really asked the Senate to kill it in the final days before it passed in last spring. Essentially, he's dubbed it the No More Pipelines Bill because it really does make aggressive changes to how the federal government

reviews major natural resources projects like pipelines in the oil sands and hydroelectric dams and you name it anything that is natural resources related will go through a more stringent process because of this bill so that's been the real rallying cry for the western alienation movement they really have made that the poster child of why they're so frustrated with ottawa that and also Bill C-48, the Northern BC oil tanker ban bill, of course, hasn't gone over well either. When we talk about pharmacare, healthcare, northern infrastructure, all of the social challenges we're dealing with,

the rest of the world would do anything to have those kinds of resources. So what the premiers have agreed to do today as i say is speak as one voice to ottawa to ask them to change it and the big change they're going to ask them to do is to exempt natural resources projects that fall exclusively in provincial jurisdiction and that means things like the oil sands so if there is a new oil sands development proposed right under the changes the premiers want to see, the feds would not be able to review that project. It would not qualify for a federal review. It would just be up to the Alberta regulator to take a look at new, what they call in situ oil sands developments. So

that would be a huge change. And that is definitely not how the liberal government has structured the legislation right now. But all 13 provinces and territories and their leaders have agreed to these conditions. So a huge, huge coup for Kenny. That's a huge win. Yeah. Were you surprised to see all the premiers on board with this? Kind of, frankly, yes, because there was talk about, they've had issues with these two pieces of legislation that I've mentioned for months now, but I didn't expect the provinces to kind of give up, especially provinces like British Columbia, which has stood in the way

of the Trans Mountain Expansion Project for months now. I didn't expect them to put their name on the dotted line to some of these changes that Kenny was asking for. If we don't sit down periodically, as we've done today, and come to unanimous positions on how we can mutually benefit each other, then we're going to continue to be frustrated and fractured. Even Francois how we can mutually benefit each other, then we're going to continue to be frustrated and fractured.

Even Francois Legault, the Premier of Quebec, who has done all he can to kill projects like Energy East, a pipeline that would move oil through his province to the East Coast, they've stood in the way of natural resources development. They'd probably be okay with the Feds killing projects like these through Bill C-69, but they said today that this is really about tackling national unity. We are at a point when the premiers really feel like things are not looking so good. The only thing I can add is that, you know, our positions on pipelines and we haven't discussed this subject. So they're willing to kind of make some concessions to help the people of Alberta and Saskatchewan,

but also Newfoundland and Labrador, you know, weather these tough times. In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization. Empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. So JP, how in the world did someone like Jason Kenney unify everybody behind what he would like? Well, he's a very skilled politician. I'll give him that.

And I think he also made the case that, yes, right now it's Alberta that's dealing with these big fiscal problems. But it could very well be Ontario, too. And Doug Ford said that actually today, that the reason why they're going along with this now is because... It wasn't too long ago that Ontario was taking equalization. We saw a pretty drastic recession back in, I believe, 2008, 2009. The other premiers were on site with Ontario when it was dealing with a manufacturing sector that was basically hollowed out. You know, we lost hundreds of thousands of jobs, and Alberta was sending money through the equalization program to support other provinces. So Jason Kenney made the case that Alberta has been there in the past when things

haven't gone so well elsewhere. And he's very grateful that the premiers and the other provinces are standing next to him now when they're really facing such a really dire straits with the price of oil having dropped by almost a half. And we all could have added dozens of different points into this communique. But the fact that these colleagues have put a spotlight on one particular issue that means a lot to those of us going through periods of prolonged downturns, I think means a great deal to Albertans. I just want to say thank you. It is nice to see the Premier sort of making at least these gestures of recognizing that the problems of different provinces are different than their own. You mentioned earlier that climate change wasn't on the agenda, but it was such a big issue during the election.

Why do you think they didn't broach that topic? Well, I mean, they're conservative-minded premiers. It's just not necessarily a top priority. And I think they kind of shied away from all the controversial topics so they could come up with a communique, you know, a final document at the end of the day that had all the signatures of all the premiers on the dotted line. And so they didn't talk about things like climate change. They didn't talk about things like Bill 21,

of course, Quebec's controversial bill that bans public servants from wearing religious symbols and religious garb. That didn't come up. We're here to talk about common ground and we respect the decisions that didn't come up. We're here to talk about common ground and we respect the decisions that each province makes. Does no one want to weigh in on that issue? Agreed. Okay. They didn't want to talk about those things and they really were gunning for consensus

and I think if it was, you know, circa 2016, when Justin Trudeau sat down with the first minister's meeting and actually got to that carbon tax plan that they all agreed to at that time, certainly climate change would be at the top of the agenda. But we're in 2019, almost 2020, and conservative politics are really, you know, on the ascendant right now, at least at the provincial level. So these things have just been left off, they've been put to the back burner, if you will. Right. Now, the one thing that will be in that sort of unified document is the premier is asking the prime minister to make healthcare a priority. How is that? Yeah, so that's always an ask of the provinces. I think you could probably go back 60 years since Medicare was first created. Provin provinces have been asking for more money from the feds to deal with this but what they have a what they have here today is a concrete ask they

want to increase the the rate at which health care spending in this country grows right now it's at three percent so the feds will increase their transfers to the provinces each year by three percent but the premiers want to see that grow to 5.2% a year. So that would add about a billion dollars more from the feds to help the provinces pay for health care. And they're saying this is really our number one ask. Currently in our province right now, less than 20% of health care is provided by the federal government and it's Newfoundlanders and Labradorians that are left to pay for the remaining 80%. You know, we to help alberta and saskatchewan with the fiscal stabilization program but we all really need more money they said today that health care in this country is at a crisis point

that people are waiting far too long for the services they need and to to help with that they need money from ottawa and i think it was really interesting to hear Brian Pallister today in particular from Manitoba. He said, I know the feds are really hung up on this national pharmacare plan that they have. They really want to do something about prescription drugs. If you can't sustain health care and all the multitude of services, if you can't get that right, don't start with another program. Get that right. Start by getting that right. Because there are too many people across this country waiting far too long to get care in emergency rooms for hours, in pain, waiting for a knee or a hip. And so he's trying to throw the brakes on, I think, on this national pharma care plan that the prime minister promised in the last election. He's saying that take the money that you

had committed to that in your platform and give it to us to help pay for things like knee replacements and cataract surgeries, things that we do right now and they're shortchanged. So if you're Prime Minister Trudeau or Christopher Freeland, the new Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs, what are you seeing when you look at this group of premiers and the meeting that they just had? What would be your reaction? Well, things aren't looking so good. I mean, they might be able to play ball on the fiscal stabilization front.

They might be able to do something about that. But, you know, none of the Liberal government's priorities came up today, right? And, you know, we live in a federation. It requires working, you know, the federal government has to work with the provinces to get anything done. And if you look at Justin Trudeau's platform from the last election, a lot of the things, a lot of the funding commitments he made depend on provinces going along, like on pharmacare, like I mentioned, but also plans for a national child care system, how they want to fund health care, which is not how the provinces want it. The feds want to earmark money for certain things like mental health and home care. They don't just want to cut a check and allow the provinces to spend it as they want. The liberals

want to weigh in on how they're going to use it. Housing, reforming the Canada pension plan, boosting the survivor benefit, rolling out infrastructure money, signing an internal trade agreement, banning handguns. We recognize that there are elements on which Conservative premiers don't want to act, whether it's to fight against climate change or investing in communities. But we're going to continue to focus on Canadians, on the investments they need, and on the fight against climate change. All these things depend on working with the provinces and territories. And none of those issues, and I mean none, basically, of those issues were addressed

at any length by the premiers here today. Now, you've got a relatively unified bench of premiers. Could that bench actually end up being a more effective opposition to Trudeau than the actual opposition itself? Oh, that's a good question. Potentially. I mean, Andrew Scheer right now is facing calls for his head right uh and he is mired in this leadership review process that is really not going so well to this point uh he needs to save his own hide ahead of april when party members will vote at a convention here in toronto on whether to hold a leadership review so he's going to be really focused on keeping the party membership happy he's going to be on the road a lot,

meeting with party members over the next several months. So it might fall to this group of conservative-minded premiers to be the opposition, to stand in the way of the Liberal government's agenda on some of these more progressive items like pharmacare, like going further and farther on climate change. They definitely have some levers they can pull at the provincial level because so much of what the Prime Minister wants to do depends on them going along. And many of them don't seem too keen to do that. So I think we could absolutely see that

resistance. Remember that Maclean's magazine cover from a few months back that all the conservative premiers, you know, standing around with that title resistance in opposition to Justin Trudeau's agenda. That wasn't my word. I don't think it was the word of any of my colleagues. That cover speaks to the power of Photoshop. None of us knew that was going to be on the front page or none of us would have even taken the picture. We could see that play out over the next couple of months, especially, especially if the liberal government just ignores the communique that comes out of this meeting, which was agreed to, as I said, unanimously by all 13 provinces and territories. Well, this could get dicey. Thank you so much for guiding us through the Premier's meeting and this new unified front. JP Tasker, thank you.

Thanks, Elamin. Well, that's all for today. But before I say goodbye, I want to tell you about something pretty cool. Frontburner is having its very first live show in front of an audience. And if you live near Toronto, please join us. It's called Sounds of the Season. It's a show that takes place on Friday, December 6th. It's an annual festive charity event, and it raises money for local food banks. Frontburner will be on stage with special guests, including me,

from 10 a.m. to 11 a.m. at the Glenn Gould Studio here at CBC Toronto. So if you want more information on that, go to cbc.ca slash sots. I'm Elamin Abdelmahmoud, in for Jamie Poisson. Thank you so much for listening to FrontBurner.